How Economics Explains the World.Leigh2024

IN PREHISTORIC TIMES, THE ONLY SOURCE of artificial light was a wood fire. To produce as much light as a regular household lightbulb now gives off in an hour would have taken our prehistoric ancestors fifty-eight hours of foraging for timber.¹ By Babylonian times, the best lighting technology was a lamp that burned sesame oil. To produce the same amount of light, a Babylonian worker in around 1750 BCE would have had to work for forty-one hours.

陶灯，使用棉芯和油或酥油。

An earthenware lamp, which used a cotton wick and oil or ghee.

P. Maxwell 摄影/Shutterstock。

P. Maxwell Photography/Shutterstock.

后来出现了蜡烛。最初，蜡烛是用动物脂肪制成的，制作起来很费时（而且气味难闻）。即使在 18 世纪末，普通工人也必须花五天时间数小时的工作量，生产出发出的光量相当于普通家用灯泡一小时发出的光量的蜡烛。19 世纪，煤气灯的出现，将一小时照明的时间成本降低到几个小时的工作量。

Then came candles. Initially made from animal fat, they were time-consuming to produce (and smelt awful). Even in the late 1700s, the typical worker would have to devote five hours’ work to producing candles that emitted as much light as a regular household lightbulb gives off in an hour. Through the 1800s came developments in gas lamps, which reduced the time cost of an hour of light to a few hours of work.

随着电灯泡的发明，照明变得更加便宜。到 20 世纪初，只需工作几分钟就能买到一小时的照明。如今，不到一秒钟的工作就能赚到足够的钱来点亮现代家用灯泡一小时。以人造光来衡量，如今工作收入比史前时代高出 30 万倍，比 1800 年高出 3 万倍。我们的祖先曾经辛勤劳作来照亮他们的夜晚，而我们打开灯时却很少考虑成本。

With the invention of the electric bulb, light got cheaper still. By the early 1900s, it took just minutes of work to buy an hour of light. Today, less than one second of work will earn you enough money to run a modern household lightbulb for an hour. Measured in terms of artificial light, the earnings from work are 300,000 times higher today than they were in prehistoric times, and 30,000 times higher than they were in 1800. Where our ancient ancestors once toiled to brighten their nights, we rarely even think about the cost as we flick on a light.

照明技术的进展：蜡烛、白炽灯、荧光灯和 LED 灯。

The progression of lighting technology: a candle, incandescent bulb, fluorescent bulb and LED bulb.

弗拉基米尔·乔吉耶夫/Shutterstock。

Vladimir Gjorgiev / Shutterstock.

两股力量推动了这一显著变化。照明技术越来越好（并且还在日益改进）。工人的工作效率也越来越高，这意味着我们每小时的收入比我们的祖先更高。

Two forces have driven this remarkable change. Lighting technologies are better (and still improving by the day). And workers are more productive, which means that we earn more in an hour than our ancestors did.

光的历史阐明了本书的一些关键主题。史前人类必须做所有事情，而现代工人则专注于我们最擅长的事情。市场使我们能够与他人交换我们的产出。价格激励人们在短缺时生产更多，在过剩时生产更少。然而，市场体系远非完美。失业、卡特尔、交通拥堵、过度捕捞和污染只是市场失灵时出现的一些问题。

The history of light illuminates some key themes of this book. Where prehistoric people had to do everything, modern workers specialise in what we do best. Markets allow us to exchange our output with that of other people. Prices create incentives to produce more when there’s a shortage and less when there’s a glut. Yet the market system is far from perfect. Unemployment, cartels, traffic congestion, overfishing and pollution are just a few of the problems that emerge when markets fail.

这本小书讲述了一个大故事。这是资本主义的故事，讲述了我们的市场体系如何发展。这是经济学学科的故事，以及一些创立经济学学科的关键人物的故事。这是经济力量如何塑造世界历史的故事。为什么非洲没有殖民欧洲，而是相反？20 世纪 30 年代各国设立贸易和移民壁垒时发生了什么？为什么盟军赢得了第二次世界大战？为什么许多发达国家的不平等现象在 20 世纪 50 年代和 60 年代有所缓解？产权如何推动中国在 20 世纪 80 年代的增长激增？气候变化如何威胁我们未来的繁荣？您将在这本书中找到这些问题的答案以及更多答案。

This small book tells a big story. It is the story of capitalism – of how our market system developed. It is the story of the discipline of economics, and some of the key figures who formed it. And it is the story of how economic forces have shaped world history. Why didn’t Africa colonise Europe instead of the other way around? What happened when countries erected trade and immigration barriers in the 1930s? Why did the Allies win World War II? Why did inequality in many advanced countries fall during the 1950s and 1960s? How did property rights drive China’s growth surge in the 1980s? How does climate change threaten our future prosperity? You’ll find answers to these questions and more in this book.

经济学可以定义为一门社会科学，研究人们如何在资源匮乏的情况下实现福祉的最大化。它考虑人们作为个体的行为，以及我们如何在家庭和公司中共同工作。它关注我们如何在市场中互动，其中买家和卖家共同决定均衡价格。经济学还考虑当市场失灵时会发生什么，以及公共政策如何改善贫困、气候变化或价格操纵。

Economics can be defined as a social science that studies how people maximise their wellbeing in the face of scarcity. It considers the behaviour of people as individuals, and how we work together in households and corporations. It focuses on how we interact in markets, in which buyers and sellers together determine the equilibrium price. Economics also considers what happens when markets fail, and how public policy might ameliorate poverty, climate change or price-fixing.

这是一个微观经济学与宏观经济学相融合的故事。²微观经济学研究的是个人如何做出决策。宏观经济学则着眼于整个经济。关于经济学的畅销书往往只关注其中之一。《魔鬼经济学》、《发现你内心的经济学家》和《成就现代经济的 50 件事》向读者介绍了微观经济学。《萧条经济学的回归》、《向乌托邦的跋涉》和《这次不一样》有助于解释宏观经济学。这本书综合了这两种观点。我们将按时间顺序回顾历史，涉及个人的决策和整个社会的发展轨迹。

This is a story that blends microeconomics and macroeconomics.² Microeconomics is the study of how individuals make decisions. Macroeconomics looks at the economy as a whole. Too often, popular books about economics focus on one or the other. Freakonomics, Discover Your Inner Economist and 50 Things That Made the Modern Economy introduce the reader to microeconomics. The Return of Depression Economics, Slouching Towards Utopia and This Time Is Different help explain macroeconomics. This book synthesises both perspectives. We’ll move chronologically through history, touching on the decisions of individuals and the trajectory of entire societies.

那些认为经济学是暗淡的、唯利是图的或心胸狭隘的批评者喜欢引用托马斯·卡莱尔对这门学科的描述，称其为“阴暗的科学”，而忽略了批评的来源。卡莱尔在 19 世纪写作，他是一个种族主义者，他认为应该在西印度群岛恢复奴隶制。卡莱尔所抨击的“阴暗”观点是人人平等。像许多经济学家一样，我为这种侮辱感到自豪。

Critics who think economics is bleak, moneygrubbing or narrow-minded like to quote Thomas Carlyle’s description of the discipline as ‘the dismal science’, ignoring where the criticism comes from. Carlyle, who was writing in the 1800s, was a racist who believed that slavery should be reintroduced in the West Indies. The ‘dismal’ view Carlyle was attacking was that all people are equal. Like many economists, I wear the insult with pride.

卡莱尔还轻蔑地说道：“教鹦鹉理解供给和需求，你就有一位经济学家。’³供需图可能很有用，但你不会在这本书中找到它们。当然，你不需要学习任何经济学知识就可以欣赏接下来的故事。学会像经济学家一样思考可以让你的生活变得更好。我们学科的秘密在于，最有力的洞察力来自于少数几个任何人都能理解的大想法。

Carlyle also disparagingly said, ‘Teach a parrot the terms supply and demand and you’ve got an economist.’³ Supply and demand graphs can be handy, but you won’t find them in this book. And you certainly don’t need to have studied any economics to enjoy the stories that follow. Learning to think like an economist can change your life for the better. The secret of our discipline is that the most powerful insights come from a handful of big ideas that anyone can comprehend.

我已经提到过其中一种想法：激励。在体育比赛中，如果有一个大奖和一个二等奖，成绩就会提高。跑步者跑得更快。高尔夫球手用更少的杆数完成比赛。⁴激励措施甚至会影响我们的出生时间。当澳大利亚为 2004 年 7 月 1 日或之后出生的婴儿推出“婴儿奖金”时，这一天创下了出生人数的最高纪录。⁵为什么？因为孕妇为了获得经济回报而推迟了引产和剖腹产手术。当美国改变遗产税率时，死亡时间也发生了变化：这表明少数人为了尽量减少税款而推迟（或提前）死亡。⁶有句老话是说，生活中除了死亡和税收之外，没有什么是确定的。在这种情况下，税率变了，死亡率也随之变化。

I’ve mentioned one of these ideas already: incentives. In sporting contests where there’s a big first prize and a small second prize, performance improves. Runners go faster. Golfers finish in fewer shots.⁴ Incentives can even affect when we’re born. When Australia introduced a ‘baby bonus’ for children born on or after 1 July 2004, that day set a record for the number of births.⁵ Why? Because expectant mothers delayed induction procedures and caesarean section operations to get the financial reward. When the United States changed inheritance tax rates, the timing of deaths shifted too: indicating that a small number of people died later (or earlier) to minimise their tax bill.⁶ There’s a cliché that nothing in life is certain except death and taxes. In this case, tax rates changed, and death rates followed.

这并不是说经济学全是关于贪婪的。第一位获得诺贝尔经济学奖的女性埃莉诺·奥斯特罗姆发现了许多背景——从印度尼西亚的渔业到尼泊尔的森林——人们合作管理稀缺资源。在她的诺贝尔奖演讲中，奥斯特罗姆批评了经济学家为完全自私自利的个人设计制度的倾向。相反，她认为，“公共政策的核心目标应该是促进发展制度能激发人类的最大潜能”。激励机制很重要，但我会努力捕捉奥斯特罗姆的乐观精神，并表明经济学家也可以是理想主义者。

That’s not to say that economics is all about greed. Elinor Ostrom, the first woman to win the Nobel Prize in economics, found many contexts – from fisheries in Indonesia to forests in Nepal – in which people cooperated to manage scarce resources. In her Nobel Prize lecture, Ostrom criticised the tendency of economists to design institutions for entirely self-interested individuals. Instead, she argued, ‘a core goal of public policy should be to facilitate the development of institutions that bring out the best in humans’. Incentives matter, but I’ll endeavour to capture Ostrom’s optimism, and show that economists can be idealists too.

经济学的另一个重要理念是专业化。我们当中有多少人可以提供一手好发型、更换破损的汽车挡风玻璃、将葡萄酿成葡萄酒或编写智能手机应用程序？只需几个月，大多数人就能学会以某种程度的熟练程度完成这些任务，但除非你喜欢这种体验，否则更好的方法是花钱请专家，专注于你最擅长的事情。如果你一生都在努力成为所有事情的佼佼者，那么你最终可能会变成人类版的瑞士军刀——拿着一把难看的刀、一把恼人的小剪刀和一把不实用的螺丝刀。工作专业化是现代经济的关键之一。

Another big idea of economics is specialisation. How many of us can provide a good haircut, replace a broken car windscreen, turn grapes into wine, or write a smartphone app? Given a few months, most people could learn to do each of these tasks with some level of proficiency, but unless you’d enjoy the experience, a better approach is to pay an expert, and focus instead on what you do best. If you spent your life aiming to become reasonably good at everything, you’d probably end up as the human equivalent of a Swiss Army knife – with a finicky knife, annoyingly tiny scissors and an impractical screwdriver. Job specialisation is one of the keys to the modern economy.

制造过程也变得专业化。例如，一些中国城市已经擅长生产单一类型的产品。义乌生产了世界上大部分的圣诞装饰品。葫芦岛生产了世界上四分之一的泳衣。丹阳被称为“眼镜城”。台州长期以来一直专注于生产浴室产品，现在已成为全球智能马桶创新中心。⁷

The process of making things has become specialised too. For example, some Chinese cities have become expert in making a single kind of product. Yiwu produces most of the world’s Christmas decorations. Huludao makes a quarter of the world’s swimwear. Danyang is known as ‘spectacles city’. Taizhou, which has long specialised in bathroom products, has now become a global centre for innovation in intelligent toilets.⁷

随着专业化的发展，贸易变得无价。波音 787 梦想飞机的电池来自日本，翼尖来自韩国，地板梁来自印度，水平稳定器来自意大利，起落架来自法国，货舱门来自瑞典，反推装置来自墨西哥。⁸典型智能手机最准确地贴上了“世界制造”的标签。通过从成本最低的供应商处采购零部件和原材料，可以制造出如果仅使用当地材料制造则无法负担的产品。

As specialisation flourishes, trade becomes invaluable. Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner includes batteries from Japan, wing tips from South Korea, floor beams from India, horizontal stabilisers from Italy, landing gear from France, cargo doors from Sweden and thrust reversers from Mexico.⁸ A typical smartphone could most accurately be labelled ‘Made in the World’. By sourcing components and raw materials from the lowest-cost suppliers, it becomes possible to create items that would be unaffordable if they had to be built using only local materials.

或许最有力地体现专业化的是设计师托马斯·思韦茨 (Thomas Thwaites) 决定从头开始制作一台烤面包机——只使用他自己的劳动力和亲自采购的原材料。⁹思韦茨从英格兰的一座废弃矿山中获取铁矿石，从威尔士的一座矿山中获取铜，从苏格兰的一座山中获取云母。当家用高炉炼钢失败时，他便用微波炉熔炼铁矿石。塑料外壳来自熔化垃圾。思韦茨的烤面包机实验最终耗时 9 个月。如果我们以当时英国的平均工资来计算他的时间，那么人工成本为 19,000 英镑，再加上约 1,000 英镑的杂费。¹⁰ Thwaites 的烤面包机价值 20,000 英镑，比他在当地零售商那里花 4 英镑购买的烤面包机贵了 5000 倍。哦，商店里买的烤面包机确实有用。当 Thwaites 给他的烤面包机插上电源后，它持续了五秒钟，然后就开始熔化。

Perhaps the most powerful illustration of specialisation came when designer Thomas Thwaites decided to make a toaster from scratch – using only his own labour and raw materials he had personally sourced.⁹ Thwaites obtained iron ore from a disused mine in England, copper from a mine in Wales, and mica from a mountain in Scotland. When a home blast furnace failed to make steel, he resorted to smelting iron ore in his microwave. The plastic casing came from melting down garbage. In the end, Thwaites’s toaster experiment took nine months. If we value his time at the average wage in the United Kingdom at the time, the labour cost was £19,000, plus around £1000 for expenses.¹⁰ Thwaites’s £20,000 toaster was about 5000 times costlier than if he had bought one at his local retailer for £4. Oh, and store-bought toasters actually work. When Thwaites plugged his toaster in, it lasted five seconds before it began melting down.

经济学的另一个原则是，大事件很少是由规范或文化的突然转变所驱动。更常见的情况是，剧烈的变化是由于新技术或政策变化所致。如果你想了解战后几十年国际贸易为何蓬勃发展，了解 1956 年标准化集装箱的发明以及通过连续几轮关税削减全球关税将大有裨益。世界贸易谈判。如果你想知道为什么今天的篮球比赛比半个世纪前更精彩，那就考虑一下投篮计时器和三分球规则的作用吧。这本书试图发掘战争、宗教运动和社会变革背后隐藏的经济力量。

Another principle of economics is that big events are rarely driven by sudden shifts in norms or culture. More often, dramatic changes are due to new technologies or changing policies. If you want to understand why international trade boomed in the post-war decades, it helps to know about the invention of the standardised shipping container in 1956 and the reduction in global tariffs through successive rounds of world trade talks. If you want to know why basketball games today are more exciting than half a century ago, consider the role of the shot clock and the three-point rule. This book seeks to unearth the hidden economic forces behind wars, religious movements and social transformations.

经济的历史始于农业革命，当时社会从狩猎采集部落转变为古埃及、希腊和罗马文明。水路运输使地区间贸易成为可能。中国的大运河连接了各省。航海时代连接了欧洲、非洲和美洲——通过高利润的三角贸易运输农产品、制成品和奴隶。

The story of economics starts with the agricultural revolution that saw communities move from hunter-gatherer tribes to create the civilisations of Ancient Egypt, Greece and Rome. Trade between regions was enabled by water-borne transport. China’s Grand Canal connected provinces. The age of sail connected Europe, Africa and the Americas – transporting agricultural products, manufactured goods and enslaved people in a highly profitable triangular trade.

下一个重大革命是工业革命，它启动了制造业并加速了经济增长。随着新设备的出现，随着经济学学科的形成，智力也取得了突破。到 20 世纪初，装配线的创新使汽车生产价格不断下降，全球化将世界前所未有地紧密联系在一起。两次世界大战和大萧条破坏了许多联系，摧毁了生命、生计和联系。

The next major revolution was the industrial revolution, which kickstarted manufacturing and turbocharged economic growth. Alongside the new gadgets came intellectual breakthroughs, as the discipline of economics took shape. By the early 1900s, the innovation of the assembly line saw cars produced at ever-decreasing prices, and globalisation knitted the world together like never before. Two world wars and the Great Depression broke many of those connections, destroying lives, livelihoods and linkages.

对于许多发达国家来说，战后时期是一段共同繁荣的时期，但其他地方的增长情况并不均衡。在中国，共产党统治的最初几十年以反复无常的政策为标志，这些政策破坏了经济增长，直到 1978 年该国实现市场化转型。在印度，重大转变发生在 1990 年。亚洲大部分地区的经济增长都出现了增长该地区的生活水平与发展较慢的非洲的生活水平之间存在很大差距。到 21 世纪初，许多国家内部的不平等现象急剧加剧。

For many in the advanced world, the post-war era was a period of shared prosperity, but growth was patchier elsewhere. In China, the early decades of communist rule were marked by capricious policies that undermined growth until the country’s market turn in 1978. In India, the big change came in 1990. Growth across much of Asia saw a growing divergence between living standards in that region and those in slower-growing Africa. By the beginning of the twenty-first century, inequality within many countries had risen sharply.

如今，经济学的很多内容都集中在市场失灵问题上。许多竞争政策的动机都是削弱垄断权力。约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯开创的宏观经济学的核心关注点是减少失业。气候政策解决的是市场失灵问题，这意味着污染可能给企业带来利润，但对地球却有害无益。同样，行为经济学也承认，人类并不总是像冷静、精于算计、追求幸福最大化的机器一样行事，而是倾向于以系统的方式偏离理性规则。随着经济学学科的发展，理论和数据都使研究人员能够建立更好的人类行为模型，使经济学变得更有趣、更有用。

Much of economics is now focused on questions of market failure. A great deal of competition policy is motivated by curtailing monopoly power. A central concern of the macroeconomics pioneered by John Maynard Keynes is reducing unemployment. Climate policy addresses the market failure that means pollution can be profitable for companies, but ruinous for the planet. Similarly, behavioural economics acknowledges that humans do not always behave like cool, calculating happiness-maximising machines, but tend to deviate in systematic ways from the rational rule. As the discipline of economics has evolved, both theory and data have allowed researchers to build better models of human behaviour, making economics more interesting and more useful.

但在探讨“经济人”之前，我们必须从头开始，了解经济学是如何塑造我们这个物种——智人的。

But before we get to Homo economicus, we must start at the beginning, with the way that economics shaped our species, Homo sapiens.

1 走出非洲，走进农业

Out of Africa and into Agriculture

大约30万年前，现代人类在南部非洲进化。¹我们的远古祖先拥有语言、艺术和舞蹈，以家庭为单位抚养子女并讲故事。大约 65,000 年前，他们发明了用于狩猎的矛和弓，用于缝纫的针和用于旅行的船。²与早期的灵长类动物不同，语言和抽象思维能力使智人能够进行集体学习：建立超出任何个人能力的共享知识库。³但他们的生活基本上仍然是游牧式的：捕猎动物并以当地植物为食，当资源耗尽时便继续迁移。

MODERN HUMANS EVOLVED IN SOUTHERN AFRICA around 300,000 years ago.¹ Our ancient ancestors had language, art and dance, raised children in family units and told stories. Around 65,000 years ago, they invented spears and bows for hunting, needles for sewing and boats for travelling.² Unlike earlier primates, their capacity for language and abstract thought allowed Homo sapiens to engage in collective learning: building a shared knowledge base that exceeded the capacity of any individual person.³ But their lives largely remained nomadic: hunting animals and feeding on local plants, then moving on when the resources were gone.

早期社会在照顾那些无法工作的人方面有所不同。一些史前社会显示出照顾老年人的证据——雕刻手杖让他们能够行走，并为那些牙齿不再起作用的人咀嚼食物。其他狩猎采集社会——尤其是那些长途迁徙的社会——倾向于杀死或抛弃那些年老或以免危及整个集团的前景。

Early societies differed in providing for those who could not work. Some prehistoric societies show evidence of caring for the elderly – carving canes so they could walk and chewing food for those whose teeth no longer worked. Other hunter-gatherer societies – especially the ones that moved long distances – tended to kill or abandon those who were elderly or disabled, lest they endanger the whole group’s prospects.

那么，那个时代大多数人的生活是什么样的呢？瑞士哲学家让-雅克·卢梭写道：“没有什么比人类的原始状态更温和了。”他的英国同行托马斯·霍布斯则持完全不同的观点，宣称早期人类的生活是“孤独、贫穷、肮脏、野蛮和短暂的”。

So what was life like for most people in this era? ‘Nothing is more gentle than man in his primitive state,’ wrote Swiss philosopher Jean-Jacques Rousseau. His English counterpart Thomas Hobbes took an utterly different view, declaring that early human life was ‘solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short’.

得益于法医考古学（有时被称为“CSI 旧石器时代”），现代研究人员已经能够收集到大量有关这个时代生活的信息。他们估计，五分之二的婴儿活不到一岁生日。预期寿命约为 33 岁。⁴暴力无处不在——来自自己部落的竞争对手和来自邻近群体的袭击者。游牧社会中多达 15% 的人死于暴力。⁵在农耕时代之前，大多数人会在冬天瑟瑟发抖，然后带着咕咕叫的肚子上床睡觉。霍布斯是对的，卢梭是错的。

Thanks to forensic archaeology (sometimes dubbed ‘CSI Palaeolithic’), modern researchers have been able to glean a great deal about life in this era. They estimate that two-fifths of babies did not live to see their first birthday. Life expectancy was around thirty-three years.⁴ Violence was ever-present – from competitors in your own tribe and attackers from neighbouring groups. Up to 15 per cent of people in nomadic societies died a violent death.⁵ Before the age of farming, most people would have shivered through winter, and gone to bed with growling stomachs. Hobbes was right. Rousseau was wrong.

定居农业没有单一的起源点，但其中一个“首创”发生在印度西北部。卡利班甘镇距离巴基斯坦边境约三小时车程，曾是两条河流的交汇处。这里是世界主要考古遗址之一：最古老的耕地。这里的犁沟既有南北方向的，也有东西方向的，这表明当时两种作物一起种植——可能是谷物和芥菜。⁶

Settled agriculture has no single origin point, but one of the ‘firsts’ took place in northwestern India. The town of Kalibangan, about three hours’ drive from the border with Pakistan, was once the confluence of two rivers. It is home to one of the world’s major archaeological sites: the oldest ploughed field. Here, furrows are ploughed both north–south and east–west, suggesting that two crops were grown together – perhaps cereals and mustard.⁶

卡利班甘是印度河流域文明的主要城市，繁荣于公元前 3300 年至公元前 1300 年。农业使人们得以定居并建造更舒适的房屋——有些甚至有抽水马桶。建造者们找到了理想的砖块尺寸：1:2:4 的尺寸比例，至今仍在使用。⁷成年人使用青铜工具并玩骰子游戏。考古学家出土了儿童玩具，如口哨和陀螺。与游牧生活相比，定居农业提供了制造和使用工具和玩具的环境。

Kalibangan was a major city in the Indus Valley civilisation, which prospered from 3300 to 1300 BCE. Farming allowed people to settle and build more comfortable homes – some even had flush toilets. Their builders hit upon the ideal brick size: the dimensional ratio of 1:2:4 that is still in use today.⁷ Adults wielded bronze tools and played dice games. Archaeologists have unearthed children’s toys such as whistles and spinning tops. In contrast with nomadic living, settled agriculture provided the environment in which tools and toys could be made and used.

农业革命促使印度河流域文明与其他文明进行贸易。为了在陆地上运输货物，印度河流域的居民制造了马车——这可能是历史上首次使用轮式交通工具。他们的城市呈网格状布局，就像今天的许多现代城市一样。他们建造船只并疏浚运河。印度河流域的商人带回了原材料，例如来自中国的玉石、来自喜马拉雅山的雪松木和来自阿富汗的青金石。作为回报，他们出售珠宝、陶器和金属工具。

The agricultural revolution spurred the Indus Valley civilisation to trade with others. To move goods across land, its citizens built carts – possibly the first use of wheeled transport in history. Their cities were laid out in a grid pattern, just as many modern cities are today. They built boats and dredged a canal. Indus Valley traders brought back raw materials such as jade from China, cedar wood from the Himalayas and lapis lazuli from Afghanistan. In return, they sold jewellery, pottery and metal tools.

印度河流域文明在鼎盛时期拥有约 500 万人口。⁸然而，直到 20 世纪 20 年代，考古学家才发现它。一个主要原因是文明相对平等。古埃及人建造了金字塔，古希腊人建造了雅典卫城，古罗马人建造了万神殿。大型建筑通常是财富和权力巨大差异的标志——一位学者称之为“纪念碑问题”。⁹相比之下，印度河流域文明建造的纪念碑很少。这在当时对他们的人民很有帮助，但也意味着在该地区河流干涸后的 2000 多年里，印度河流域的城市一直无人问津。

At its peak, the Indus Valley civilisation had a population of around 5 million people.⁸ Yet it remained undiscovered by archaeologists until the 1920s. A major reason for this is that the civilisation was relatively equal. Ancient Egyptians built the pyramids, Ancient Greeks built the Acropolis, and Ancient Romans built the Pantheon. Big edifices were typically a marker of vast differences in wealth and power – what one scholar has called the ‘monumental problem’.⁹ By contrast, the Indus Valley civilisation constructed few monuments. At the time, this served their people well, but it meant that Indus Valley cities remained unseen for over 2000 years after the area’s rivers dried up.

印度河流域文明并没有建造像其他文明那样象征贫富不均的纪念碑。

The Indus Valley civilisation did not build the kinds of monuments that signified wealth inequality in other civilisations.

图片由 Archestudy 提供。

Courtesy of Archestudy.

农业是世界经济的一个转折点，因为它使社区能够积累盈余。储存食物使人们一年四季都能吃得好。如果收成不好，它也提供了一种早期的保险形式，以防饥荒。当人们的消费波动小于收入时，经济学家称他们处于“消费平滑”状态。消费平滑解释了为什么现代经济体中的许多人借钱买房、为退休储蓄和购买医疗保险。史前时代困扰人们生活的不确定性一定给许多公民带来了极大的压力。即使在今天，发达国家的贫困劳动者也面临着每月收入大幅波动的问题，这给他们带来了相当大的焦虑，使他们很难为未来做计划。

Farming marked a turning point for the world economy because it allowed communities to build up a surplus. Storing food enabled people to eat well all year round. It also provided an early form of insurance against famine if the harvest failed. When people’s consumption is less volatile than their incomes, economists say that they are ‘consumption smoothing’. Consumption smoothing explains why many people in modern economies borrow to buy a home, save for retirement and take out health insurance. The uncertainty that plagued people’s lives in prehistoric times must have been extremely stressful for many citizens. Even today, the working poor in advanced countries suffer from large swings in income from month to month, causing considerable anxiety and making it hard to plan for the future.

在一些地方，食物充足，狩猎采集者可以过上充实的生活。在卡拉哈里沙漠中住着一群人，他们被称为 !Kung（感叹号的发音方式是舌尖弹音）。该地区有许多芒果树，芒果树的坚果富含蛋白质和脂肪，可以长期保存。传统上，!Kung 人平均每天吃大约 300 颗坚果，提供他们大约三分之一的能量摄入。正如 !Kung 的一名成员告诉一位访客，“既然世界上有这么多芒果，我们为什么要种植 [农作物]？”¹⁰但孔雀族是个例外。在世界上的大多数地方，农业意味着人们可以消耗更多的卡路里，并且更确定下一顿饭从哪里来。

In a few places, food was plentiful enough that hunter-gatherers could live a fulfilling life. On the western edge of the Kalahari Desert live a group of people called the !Kung (the exclamation point is pronounced with a click of the tongue). The area has many mongongo trees, whose nuts are high in protein and fat, and can be stored for long periods. Traditionally, the average !Kung ate around 300 nuts a day, providing about one-third of their energy intake. As one member of the !Kung told a visitor, ‘Why should we plant [crops] when there are so many mongongo nuts in the world?’¹⁰ But the !Kung are the exception. In most of the world, farming meant that people could consume more calories and be more certain about where their next meal would come from.

黎凡特是地中海东部边缘的一个地区，对农民来说，这里尤其有希望。上一个冰河时代结束后，黎凡特经历了几次漫长的干旱期，这促使各个社会开始尝试耕种。从公元前 10,000 年到公元前 8,000 年，农民通过选择种子较大、味道较淡的作物来培育作物。黎凡特有时被称为“肥沃新月”，恰好有几种可以驯化（适应人类使用）的植物物种。这八种“创始作物”——二粒小麦、单粒小麦、带壳大麦、豌豆、小扁豆、苦野豌豆、鹰嘴豆和亚麻——对农业发展至关重要。¹¹早期农民发明了燧石刀和磨石，用于收割和加工。社会从游牧社会转变为以农业为主导的定居点。

The Levant, an area bordering the eastern edge of the Mediterranean Sea, was especially promising for farmers. Following the end of the last ice age, the Levant experienced several long dry periods, which prompted societies to experiment with farming. From 10,000 to 8000 BCE, farmers bred crops by selecting those with larger seeds and a less bitter taste. The Levant, part of what is sometimes called ‘the fertile crescent’, happened to have several plant species that could be domesticated (adapted for human use). These eight ‘founder crops’ – emmer wheat, einkorn wheat, hulled barley, peas, lentils, bitter vetch, chickpeas and flax – were essential to the development of agriculture.¹¹ Early farmers developed flint knives and grindstones to assist with harvesting and processing. Societies moved from being nomadic communities to having settlements built around agriculture.

推动农业发展的最重要的发明是犁。犁能把土地翻松，使种植更容易，犁能带出新鲜的土壤养分，并掩埋杂草。早期农民使用棍子和锄头进行耕作：与今天在后院菜地里耕作土壤的方式并无太大区别。但犁使得利用动物的能量翻土成为可能。

The most important invention that enabled agriculture was the plough. Breaking up the earth makes planting easier, brings up fresh soil nutrients, and buries weeds. Early farmers did this using sticks and hoes: not all that different from the way you might till the soil in a backyard vegetable plot today. But the plough made it possible to use the energy of animals to turn the soil.

早期埃及的犁是刮犁，类似于用棍子在土壤中拉动。秦汉时期（公元前 221 年至公元 220 年），中国农民发明了翻犁，这种犁可以将土壤翻过来，形成沟壑。¹²定居农业的生产力比采集农业高出五到六倍。¹³犁的出现终结了以“寻找食物”为主要职业的社会。事实上，一位历史学家认为，整个现代世界都是犁的产物。¹⁴

Early Egyptian ploughs were scratch ploughs, akin to a stick being pulled through the earth. During the Qin and Han dynasties (221 BCE to 220 CE), Chinese farmers developed the turn plough, which turns the soil upside down, creating furrows.¹² Settled agriculture was five or six times more productive than foraging.¹³ The plough brought the end of a society in which everyone’s occupation was effectively ‘food finder’. Indeed, one historian has argued that the entire modern world is the result of the plough.¹⁴

犁也改变了权力格局。挖掘式木棍农业相对而言男女平等，但犁需要很大的上肢力量来拉犁或控制拉犁的动物。因此，犁使农业成为一项更加以男性为主的活动。这项技术的遗产代代相传。¹⁵在犁使用不普遍的国家（如卢旺达和马达加斯加），性别规范比犁使用普遍的国家（如毛里塔尼亚和埃塞俄比亚）更为平等。即使是最近移居发达国家的移民，来自有犁使用传统的国家的人也不太可能认为女性应该在家庭外工作。

Ploughs changed power dynamics too. Digging stick agriculture is relatively gender-equal, but ploughs require significant upper body strength to pull the plough or control the animal that pulls it. So the plough made farming a more male-dominated activity. The legacy of this technology has echoed down the generations.¹⁵ In countries where plough use was uncommon (such as Rwanda and Madagascar), gender norms are more equal than in countries where plough use was common (such as Mauritania and Ethiopia). Even among immigrants who have recently moved to advanced countries, those from countries with a heritage of plough use are less likely to believe that women should have jobs outside the home.

世界上有些地区比其他地区更适合耕种。欧亚大陆恰好有植物和动物欧亚大陆的本土植物包括大麦、小麦和豆类等，这些植物可以保存数月。其他地区有香蕉和山药，这些植物几天内就会腐烂。动物的情况也类似。欧亚大陆有山羊、绵羊和牛，这些动物可以用作肉、奶和皮。相比之下，非洲斑马和澳大利亚袋鼠更难驯服。

Some regions of the world were more amenable to farming than others. Eurasia happened to have plant and animal species that were well suited to domestication. As we have seen, Eurasia’s native plants included variants of barley, wheat and legumes, which could be stored for months. Other regions had bananas and yams, which spoiled in days. With animals, it was a similar story. Eurasia had goats, sheep and cattle, which could be used for meat, milk and hides. By contrast, African zebras and Australian kangaroos are harder to tame.

大陆的形状也很重要。欧亚大陆宽阔，非洲和美洲则狭长。这意味着人们可以在相同的气候带内探索（和开发）欧亚大陆。欧亚大陆的东西方探险家不必开发在陌生环境中生存的新方法，他们的农业创新可以传播到类似的气候区。但非洲和美洲的探险家则需要更艰巨的任务，即南北旅行。正如地理学家贾雷德·戴蒙德 (Jared Diamond) 指出的那样，这些最初的巧合解释了为什么欧亚大陆殖民了非洲、美洲和大洋洲，而不是相反。由于财富最终推动了军事实力，更大规模的农业革命为帝国的建立奠定了基础。

The shape of the continents mattered too. Where Eurasia is wide, Africa and the Americas are long. This means that people could explore (and exploit) Eurasia while staying in the same climatic band. Eurasia’s east–west explorers did not have to develop new ways of surviving in an unfamiliar environment, and their farming innovations could spread across similar climates. But adventurers in Africa and the Americas had the more arduous task of travelling north–south. As geographer Jared Diamond notes, these initial coincidences explain why Eurasia colonised Africa, the Americas and Oceania, rather than the other way around. Because wealth ultimately fuelled military might, bigger agricultural revolutions laid the groundwork for empire-building.

在相似的气候条件下（从东到西）迁徙比在多样的气候条件下（从北到南）迁徙更容易。

It was easier to migrate within similar climates (east to west) than varied climates (north to south).

贾雷德·戴蒙德。图片来自 Wikimedia Commons。

Jared Diamond. Image via Wikimedia Commons.

理论上，农业革命本可以让每个人都过上好日子。因为农业比狩猎和采集更有效率，所以不需要社会上每个人的劳动。这首次为人们提供了成为工匠和建筑工人的可能性。农业使城市成为可能，人们在那里发明了新工具，并在繁荣的市场上进行贸易。印度河流域文明可能是历史上最好的例子，一个定居农业带来了共同繁荣。

In theory, the agricultural revolution could have made everyone better off. Because farming was more efficient than hunting and gathering, it did not require the labour of everyone in the society. For the first time, that opened the possibility for people to specialise as craftspeople and builders. Farming enabled cities, where people invented new tools and traded in flourishing markets. The Indus Valley civilisation might be the best example in history of a community where settled agriculture led to shared prosperity.

不幸的是，农业革命也为不那么仁慈的统治者创造了可能性。狩猎采集者是流动的，这意味着没有人拥有太多财产。相比之下，农业创造了盈余。这使得领导人能够让自己和家人致富，从民众身上榨取资源来资助镇压军队。在许多社会中，统治者用武力夺取权力，用恐惧来控制民众。

Unfortunately, the agricultural revolution also created the potential for less benign rulers to emerge. Hunter-gatherers were mobile, which meant that nobody owned much property. By contrast, farming created surpluses. This made it possible for leaders to enrich themselves and their families, extracting resources from the population to fund a repressive army. In many societies, rulers won power by force, and used fear to keep the population in check.

农业革命后诞生的社会往往极不稳定。罗马帝国在其 500 年的历史中，曾换过 77 位皇帝。其中一半被谋杀，还有更多死于战争或自杀。¹⁶罗马皇帝中只有三分之一死于自然原因。在一段异常残酷的十八个月期间，尼禄自杀身亡，加尔巴被谋杀，奥托自杀身亡，维特利乌斯被谋杀。在战场上，战争有时，他们会发动“罗马战争” ——一种全面战争，包括毁坏庄稼、强奸妇女、奴役或处决俘虏。罗马帝国野蛮扩张的受害者可能认为，如果没有农业革命，他们的生活会更好。

The societies that emerged from the agricultural revolution were often highly unstable. During its 500-year history, the Roman Empire had seventy-seven emperors. Half were murdered, and still more died in battle or by suicide.¹⁶ Just one-third of Roman emperors died from natural causes. In one exceptionally brutal eighteen-month period, Nero died by suicide, Galba was murdered, Otho died by suicide and Vitellius was murdered. On the battlefield, war was sometimes fought Bellum Romanum – an all-out approach that involved destroying crops, raping women and enslaving or executing captives. The victims of the Roman Empire’s brutal expansion probably thought that they would have been better off without the agricultural revolution.

定居农业的另一个意想不到的缺点是饮食往往缺乏多样性。狩猎采集者食用各种各样的浆果、坚果和动物，而农耕社会的人们通常只从几种淀粉类植物中获取大部分卡路里。一项研究基于对农业革命前后骨骼遗骸的检查，估计平均身高下降了约 10 厘米（4 英寸）。¹⁷霍布斯认为自然状态下生命是“短暂的”，这是对的，但农业革命的最初影响是人口寿命缩短。

Another unexpected downside of settled agriculture was that diets tended to be less diverse. Hunter-gatherers consumed a broad range of berries, nuts and animals, while people in farming communities often got most of their calories from just a few starchy plants. One study, based on examining skeletal remains before and after the agricultural revolution, estimates that average heights dropped by about 10 centimetres (4 inches).¹⁷ Hobbes was right that life was ‘short’ in the state of nature, but the initial effect of the agricultural revolution was a shorter population.

农业革命首先增加了营养不良率，迫使人们涌入疾病肆虐的城市，加剧了不平等。但它也催生了创新者，最终为人类比石器时代的祖先拥有更长寿、更快乐的人生奠定了基础。¹⁸正如农业为反复无常的独裁者崛起创造了可能性一样，它也创造了一种环境，让人们可以思考改善自己和周围的世界。

At first, the agricultural revolution increased rates of malnutrition, crowded people into disease-ridden cities and worsened inequality. Yet it also enabled innovators, who ultimately laid the foundation for people to have longer and more enjoyable lives than those of our stone age ancestors.¹⁸ Just as agriculture created the potential for capricious dictators to arise, it also produced an environment in which people could think about improving themselves and the world around them.

知识精英有时间去尝试各种想法、建立模型并开发与世界互动的新方式。古代美索不达米亚在数学、地图、文字和帆船方面取得了突破。古埃及在艺术方面进行了创新，文字和建筑。玛雅文明在天文学和记录方面取得了发现。古希腊人在科学、技术、文学和民主方面取得了进步。甚至有一个早期的福利国家。从公元 98 年到 272 年，罗马有一项名为alimenta的计划，为孤儿和穷苦儿童提供食物和补贴教育。但它只帮助了一小部分需要帮助的人，并被奥雷利安皇帝终止。

An intellectual elite had time to tinker with ideas, build models and develop fresh ways of engaging with the world. Ancient Mesopotamia made breakthroughs in mathematics, maps, writing and sailboats. Ancient Egypt innovated in art, writing and architecture. The Mayan civilisation made discoveries in astronomy and record-keeping. The Ancient Greeks achieved advances in science, technology, literature and democracy. There was even an early welfare state. From 98 to 272 CE, Rome had a program known as the alimenta, which provided food and subsidised education to orphans and poor children. But it helped only a fraction of those in need, and was terminated by Emperor Aurelian.

每个社会投入创造力的地方都大不相同。公元前 2600 年左右建造吉萨大金字塔需要用到三角学和毕达哥拉斯定理。此后 3800 年，它一直是世界上最高的建筑。然而，古埃及人并没有发明轮子——他们依靠的是数以万计的工人，他们用雪橇从采石场运送石块。古罗马的统治者建造了渡槽和美丽的高圆顶建筑。但他们并没有广泛采用水车或风车，直到罗马帝国灭亡后，水车才在整个欧洲普及。¹⁹

Where a society put its inventive energies varied enormously. To construct the Great Pyramid of Giza around 2600 BCE required use of trigonometry and Pythagoras’ theorem. It remained the world’s tallest building for the next 3,800 years. Yet Ancient Egyptians did not invent the wheel – they relied instead on tens of thousands of workers, who hauled stone blocks from quarries on sledges. The rulers of Ancient Rome built aqueducts and beautiful high-domed buildings. Yet they did not widely adopt the waterwheel or the windmill, and it was not until after the fall of the Roman Empire that watermills became commonplace across Europe.¹⁹

为什么这个时代的杰出思想家没有更多地关注节省劳动力的设备？经济学给出了答案。当劳动力成本低时，投资于提高工人效率的技术的动力就较小。在我们现代时代，欧洲餐馆投资电子订餐系统的时间比美国餐馆早几十年。原因很简单：在欧洲，雇佣服务员的成本更高，因此公司有动力让他们尽可能高效。

Why didn’t the remarkable thinkers of this era pay more attention to labour-saving devices? Economics provides an answer. When labour costs are low, there is less incentive to invest in technologies that make workers more efficient. In our modern era, European restaurants invested in electronic ordering systems decades before restaurants in the United States. The reason was simple: hiring waitstaff is costlier in Europe, so firms have an incentive to make them as productive as possible.

宗教经济学

THE ECONOMICS OF RELIGION

古典时期诞生了三大亚伯拉罕宗教：犹太教、基督教和伊斯兰教。它们兴起的原因之一可以追溯到经济学的一个关键观点：竞争通过鼓励更大的创新使消费者受益。因此，这些宗教在激烈的宗教竞争时代出现并非巧合。

The period of classical antiquity saw the start of the three Abrahamic religions: Judaism, Christianity and Islam. One reason for their rise goes back to a key insight from economics: that competition benefits consumers, by encouraging greater innovation. So it is no coincidence that these faiths emerged in an era of intense religious competition.

同样的力量也塑造了现代的宗教。北美的教堂信徒比例（各教派之间竞争激烈）高于斯堪的纳维亚国家（这些国家的教堂往往由政府垄断）。美国前总统托马斯·杰斐逊曾指出，多元化与宗教信仰之间的关系，他曾打趣说，在宗教问题上，格言应该是“分裂则存，团结则亡”。²⁰

The same forces shape religion in the modern age. Churchgoing rates are higher in North America (with robust competition between denominations) than in Scandinavian countries (where churches often have a government-granted monopoly). Noting the relationship between diversity and religiosity, former US president Thomas Jefferson quipped that in matters of religion, the maxim should be ‘Divided we stand, united, we fall.’²⁰

当谈到宗教时，竞争会促进参与。

When it comes to religion, competition boosts participation.

IR Stone/Shutterstock。

IR Stone/Shutterstock.

经济学家还观察到，许多宗教的严格要求——包括对食物、衣服和社会交往的限制——都有经济目的。如果没有这样的规则，外来者很容易混入该团体，享受其好处而不付出代价。当今世界，每六人中就有五人信教。²¹在生命周期中，人们的宗教信仰会逐渐减少，但由于信教的父母会生出更多孩子，预计未来几十年世界会变得更加虔诚。神学上温和的宗教往往有更多的信徒流失，而神学上保守的宗教往往有最高的出生率。因此，增长最快的宗教往往是那些教义最严格的宗教。

Economists also observe that the strict requirements of many religions – including restrictions on food, clothing and social mixing – have an economic purpose. Without such rules, it would be easy for outsiders to slip into the group and enjoy its benefits without paying the cost. Five out of six people in the world today are religious.²¹ Over the lifecycle, people tend to become less religious, but because religious parents have more children, the world is projected to become more religious over the coming decades. Theologically moderate religions tend to have more lapsed members, while theologically conservative religions tend to have the highest birthrates. Thus the fastest-growing religions tend to be those with the strictest doctrines.

同样，当古埃及和古罗马的创新者考虑最紧迫的技术问题时，他们所处的社会中，大部分工作都是由奴隶完成的。由于奴隶数量众多，统治阶级对提高奴隶阶级的产出没有多大兴趣。古代世界的奴隶制不仅在道德上是错误的，而且还降低了人们提高生产力的动力。

Likewise, when the innovators of Ancient Egypt and Ancient Rome were considering the most pressing technology problems, they did so in a society where much of the work was carried out by enslaved people. With so many in bondage, the ruling class didn’t have much interest in raising the output of the enslaved class. Slavery in the Ancient world wasn’t just morally wrong – it also reduced the incentive to make people more productive.

古代中国也出现了类似的问题，当时劳动力充足，削弱了开发新发明的动力。中国人在丝绸制造、青铜和钢铁制品生产以及用纸书写方面远远领先于欧洲同行。磁罗盘是在公元前四世纪至二世纪左右在中国发明的。然而，这些发明并没有以人们预期的方式改变经济。在古代中国，贵族主导着统治精英，主流观点是对商人和商业的蔑视。因此，金属加工的创新主要体现在武器和艺术品上，而不是实用工具上。²²指南针的发明并没有让中国成为领先的航海强国。经济成功需要的不仅仅是发明。发明改变生活也需要正确的制度。

Similar issues arose in Ancient China, where an abundance of workers muted the incentive to exploit new innovations. The Chinese were well ahead of their European counterparts in the manufacture of silk cloth, the production of items made of bronze and steel, and the use of paper for writing. The magnetic compass was invented in China around the fourth to the second century BCE. Yet these inventions did not transform the economy in the ways that might have been expected. In Ancient China, aristocrats dominated the ruling elite, and the prevailing view was one of disdain for merchants and commerce. As a result, innovations in metalwork were largely in weapons and artworks, not practical tools.²² The invention of the compass did not turn China into a leading maritime power. Economic success requires more than inventions. It also takes the right institutions for inventions to change lives.

许多古代社会都出现了一种发明，那就是货币。货币有三个特点。首先，货币是一种记账单位，提供了一种表达不同物品价值的通用语言。与其说两头牛值一把斧头，不如说两头牛值一枚银币。其次，它是一种价值储存手段，可以让财富以不会腐烂或死亡的形式被保存下来。第三，它是一种交换媒介，简化了那些想买两头牛但没有斧头可以交换的人之间的交易。

One invention that emerged in many ancient societies was money. Money has three qualities. First, it is a unit of account, providing a common language to express the value of different items. Rather than saying that two cows are worth one axe, we can say that both are worth one silver coin. Second, it is a store of value, allowing wealth to be held in a form that does not rot or die. Third, it is a medium of exchange, simplifying commerce between people who might want to buy two cows, but don’t have an axe to offer in exchange.

货币以多种形式出现。在古希腊，硬币是在公元前 700 年至 600 年间铸造的，后来被称为德拉克马，意为“一把”。²³在古代奥运会上，获胜者将获得高达 1,000 德拉克马的奖金和橄榄花环。²⁴罗马人制造货币的时间相对较晚，但当他们于公元前 269 年在朱诺·莫内塔神庙附近开始制造银币时，有些银币上刻有“Moneta”字样，这便是货币（moneta）一词的由来。

Money emerged in different forms. In Ancient Greece, coins were produced between 700 and 600 BCE, and came to be known as drachma, meaning ‘a handful’.²³ In the Ancient Olympics, winners received prizes of up to 1,000 drachma to accompany their olive wreaths.²⁴ The Romans were relatively late in producing currency, but when they began making silver coins in 269 BCE near the temple of Juno Moneta, some bore the word ‘Moneta’, which gave us the word money.

硬币是支付日常用品的直接方式。旅行时，硬币可以放在袋子里携带。它们是庞大的罗马帝国不可或缺的一部分。有时，人们第一次知道新皇帝是在硬币上看到他的肖像。

Coins provided a straightforward way to pay for daily items. Coins could be carried in a pouch while travelling. They were an essential aspect of the sprawling Roman Empire. Sometimes the first people knew of a new emperor was when they saw his image on a coin.

但硬币并不是唯一可能的货币形式。在密克罗尼西亚的雅浦群岛，石雕被用作货币。这些石头中最大的一块直径为 3.6 米（12 英尺）。当它易主时，它并没有被移动——相反，雅浦人将石头留在原地，社区里的每个人都注意到了新主人。这使得大型石雕在商业上不方便，但这并不像听起来那么不寻常。在现代，中央银行有时会将黄金存放在金库中。当黄金出售时，通常只需更改电子账本，而根本不会移动实物黄金。雅浦人会很感激这一点。

But coins are not the only possible form of money. On the Yap islands in Micronesia, stone sculptures were used as money. The largest of these stones was 3.6 metres (12 feet) in diameter. It was not moved when it changed ownership – instead the Yapese kept the stone in place and everyone in the community took note of the new owner. This made large stone sculptures inconvenient for commerce, but it is not as unusual as it sounds. In modern times, central banks sometimes hold gold in their vaults. When the gold is sold, it often involves just a change in an electronic ledger, without the physical gold moving at all. The Yapese would appreciate it.

雅浦石由雕刻的石灰石制成。

Yapese stones made from carved limestone.

图片来自 r/ArtefactPorn、Reddit。

Image via r/ArtefactPorn, Reddit.

无论是雕塑还是硬币，这个时代的货币的一个共同特点是它具有内在价值。在某些情况下，商人会相互发行本票，但货币是由珍贵的东西制成的。这种情况在公元 1000 年左右发生了变化，当时中国政府成为世界上第一个发行纸币的国家——纸币本质上毫无价值，却代表着价值的承诺。

Whether in the form of sculptures or coins, a common feature of money in this era was that it had inherent value. In some cases, merchants would issue promissory notes to one another, but money was made of something precious. This would change around 1000, when the Chinese government became the first in the world to issue paper money – inherently worthless pieces of paper that represented a promise of value.

经济发展的另一个方面是地区间贸易量的增加。正如我们在印度河流域文明中看到的那样，社会内部的专业化导致了新商品的生产，例如衣服和工具。这反过来又导致了社会之间的专业化，这是贸易的基础。当一个社会在生产产品或服务方面相对较好时，它就有可能从贸易中获益。

Another aspect of economic development was the increase in trade volumes between regions. As we have seen in the case of the Indus Valley civilisation, specialisation within a society led to the production of new goods, such as clothes and tools. That in turn led to specialisation between societies, which is the basis for trade. When one society is comparatively better at producing a product or service, then it can potentially benefit from trade.

等等，为什么我写的是“相对更好”，而不是“更好”？为了说明这一点，让我们回到劳动力的专业化问题。假设村里最好的陶器制作者也是最好的面包师。现在想象一下，她比下一个人制陶技术好十倍，但烘焙技术只有下一个人的两倍。在这个例子中，如果她把所有时间都花在做陶器上，并从别人那里购买面包，那么社区的产出将最大。

Wait, why did I write comparatively better, rather than just better? To see this, let’s go back to specialisation in the workforce. Suppose that the best pottery maker in the village is also the best baker. Now imagine that she is ten times better than the next person at pottery, but only twice as good at baking. In this example, the output of the community will be greatest if she spends all her time doing pottery, and buys her bread from someone else.

适用于我们这位陶艺大师的道理也适用于各个国家、城市和地区。想象一下，古代中国生产丝绸和黄金的成本比古罗马低十倍，但中国人生产丝绸的效率是古罗马的十倍，而开采黄金的效率只有古罗马的两倍。在这种情况下，中国出口丝绸、进口黄金或许是合理的。丝绸之路沿线的贸易只取决于比较优势，而不是绝对优势。即使是一个生产效率比邻国高的国家，也能从贸易中获益。

What holds for our master potter also applies to countries, cities and regions. Imagine that Ancient China produced both silk and gold more cheaply than Ancient Rome, but that the Chinese were ten times more efficient at producing silk, and only twice as efficient at mining gold. In that case, it might make sense for China to export silk and import gold. Trade along the Silk Road depended only on comparative advantage, not absolute advantage. Even a country that produces everything more efficiently than its neighbours can gain from trade.

然而，即使是现代社会也不进口砾石等重型、低价值产品，这是有原因的。当运输成本相对于运输产品的价值较高时，贸易就变得不经济。即使在车轮发明之后，大多数道路质量较差，这意味着将货物绑在马和骆驼背上通常比用车运送更容易。因此，大多数陆地贸易仅限于葡萄酒、橄榄油、宝石、贵重金属和稀有香料等产品。公元 300 年左右，如果一车小麦运输 500 公里（约 300 英里），其价格就会翻倍。^二十五

Yet there’s a reason that even modern societies do not import heavy, low-value products such as gravel. When the cost of transport is high, relative to the value of the products being moved, trade becomes uneconomic. Even after the invention of the wheel, the poor quality of most roads meant that it was usually easier to strap loads onto the backs of horses and camels than to move them on carts. Consequently, most land trade was confined to products such as wine, olive oil, precious stones, valuable metals and rare spices. Around 300 CE, the price of a wagonload of wheat doubled if it was transported 500 kilometres (about 300 miles).²⁵

2 大运河、印刷机和瘟疫

The Grand Canal, the Printing Press and the Plague

鉴于水覆盖了地球表面三分之二以上的面积，我们或许应该称地球为“水”而不是“地球”。几千年来，人类一直通过水路出行，乘坐由桨、帆或两者驱动的船。在水上运输货物比在陆地上运输更便宜。这使得河流和海洋对商业的重要性超过了道路。隋朝（公元 581 年至 618 年）的中国统治者修建了大运河，这是世界上最长的运河或人工河流。大运河全长 1600 多公里（1000 英里），连接黄河和长江。修建运河的最初动机是为了让北京政府能够征收作为税收的粮食。¹

GIVEN THAT WATER COVERS MORE than two-thirds of our planet’s surface, the planet should perhaps be called ‘water’ rather than ‘earth’. For millennia, humans have travelled by water, in boats powered by oars, sails or both. Moving goods on water was cheaper than transporting them by land. This made rivers and oceans more important to commerce than roads. Chinese rulers in the Sui dynasty (581 to 618 CE) built the Grand Canal, the longest canal or artificial river in the world. At more than 1600 kilometres (1000 miles) in length, it connects the Yellow River and the Yangtse River. The original impetus for constructing the canal was so that the government in Beijing could collect grain levied as taxes.¹

但运河也促进了各省之间的贸易，促进了经济联系和国际化开放，使唐朝（公元 618 年至 907 年）中国繁荣发展。19 世纪大运河的关闭导致周边地区经济困难和社会动荡省份，反映出它的重要性。²大运河虽然不如长城出名，但其经济意义更为重大。大运河的修建促进了繁荣，鼓励了旅行，提高了政治稳定性。到公元 1000 年，中国人的生活水平高于英国；以今天的货币换算，中国人均日收入为 3.36 美元，而英国为 3.15 美元。³

But the canal also helped spur trade between provinces, and contributed to the economic engagement and cosmopolitan openness that saw China thrive during the Tang dynasty (618 to 907 CE). The closure of the Grand Canal in the 1800s caused economic hardship and social unrest in surrounding provinces, reflecting how important it was.² The Grand Canal is less famous than the Great Wall, but it was more significant economically. The construction of the Grand Canal boosted prosperity, encouraged travel and improved political stability. By the year 1000, Chinese living standards were higher than in England; converted into today’s currency, the average daily income per person was US$3.36 in China, compared with US$3.15 in England.³

在世界各地，水上交通的重要性意味着最成功的城市都位于海岸边，最好有深水港，让船只可以躲避风暴。里斯本、亚历山大和雅典是海上交通黄金时代繁荣的城市之一。港口城市成为金融中心。在热那亚，货币兑换商储存商人的硬币，通过在账户之间转移资金来偿还债务，并提供贷款来资助新的航行。⁴

Around the world, the importance of water travel meant that the most successful cities were by the coast, ideally with deep-water ports that allowed ships to shelter from a storm. Lisbon, Alexandria and Athens were among the cities that prospered in the golden age of maritime transport. Port cities became financial centres. In Genoa, moneychangers stored the coins of merchants, settled debts by moving money between accounts, and provided loans to finance new voyages.⁴

在威尼斯，一种名为“colleganza”的新型风险共担形式允许较贫穷的商人通过同意与投资者分享利润来资助海上航行。⁵该系统为商人开辟了一条向上流动的道路，到 1300 年代初期，威尼斯已成为世界银行中心。随后，威尼斯的显赫家族将 colleganza 拒之门外，不让平民进入，巩固了他们在经济等级制顶端的地位。赞助取代了功绩。威尼斯失去了全球商业领袖的地位，并遭受了一系列军事失败。创新和平等主义被内部裙带关系所取代——威尼斯人因此而变得更贫穷。

In Venice, a novel form of risk sharing called the colleganza allowed poorer merchants to finance sea voyages by agreeing to share the profits with investors.⁵ The system created a pathway to upward mobility for merchants, and by the early 1300s, Venice was a world banking centre. Then Venice’s established families closed the colleganza off to commoners, entrenching their position at the top of the economic hierarchy. Patronage replaced merit. Venice lost its position as a leader in global commerce, and suffered a series of military defeats. Innovation and egalitarianism were replaced by insider cronyism – and Venetians were poorer for it.

社会流动性

SOCIAL MOBILITY

在中国古代的封建制度、印度传统的种姓制度和欧洲中世纪的封建制度下，一个人的社会地位从出生起就已确定。跨代流动受到限制，因为孩子的社会地位取决于其父母的地位。

Under China’s ancient fēngjiàn system, India’s traditional caste system and European medieval feudalism, a person’s position in society was determined from birth. Mobility across generations was limited, because a child’s social status was a function of their parents’ status.

现代资本主义社会中的大多数人都对如此僵化的阶级制度感到震惊。不同意识形态的人都推崇社会流动性——任何人都可以“成功”的想法。然而在实践中，各国在儿童的结果与其父母的结果的关联程度上存在很大差异。流动性水平最高的往往是斯堪的纳维亚半岛，而流动性水平最低的是拉丁美洲。

Most people in modern capitalist societies are appalled by such a rigid class system. People across the ideological spectrum prize social mobility – the idea that anyone can ‘make it’. Yet in practice, countries differ considerably in the degree to which children’s outcomes are related to those of their parents. The highest levels of mobility tend to be found in Scandinavia, while the lowest are in Latin America.

其中一个原因是，不平等（贫富差距）与流动性（父母与子女的收入关系）密切相关。我们可以用梯子的比喻来思考这个问题，不平等表示为梯级之间的差距，而流动性则表示某人爬上或爬下的机会。梯级之间的差距越大，爬上去的人就越少。这被称为“了不起的盖茨比曲线”。⁶由于拉丁美洲比斯堪的纳维亚半岛更加不平等，因此其流动性也较低。

One reason for this is that inequality (the gap between rich and poor) is strongly related to mobility (the relationship between incomes of parent and child). We can think of this using the analogy of a ladder, with inequality represented as the gap between the rungs, and mobility as the chance that someone climbs up or down. When the rungs are further apart, less climbing takes place. This has become known as ‘the Great Gatsby Curve’.⁶ Because Latin America is more unequal than Scandinavia, it is also less mobile.

到目前为止，我们一直在讨论单代人的社会流动性。但另一种方法可以跨多代人进行研究，以测试王朝的持久性。为了了解社会流动性的长期模式，经济学家格雷戈里·克拉克 (Gregory Clark) 使用罕见姓氏来测试社会是流动的还是静态的。⁷以曾担任英国海军部秘书的日记作家塞缪尔·佩皮斯 (Samuel Pepys，1633-1703) 为例。在过去五个世纪中，姓佩皮斯的人就读牛津大学和剑桥大学的比例至少是普通人群的二十倍。从他们的遗产价值来看，佩皮斯留下的财富至少是英国平均水平的五倍。只有在社会流动性极低的社会中，我们才会期望一个姓氏以这种方式在精英阶层中流传。

Until now, we’ve been discussing social mobility across a single generation. But another approach makes it possible to look across multiple generations, to test for the persistence of dynasties. To understand long-term patterns of social mobility, economist Gregory Clark uses rare surnames to test whether societies are fluid or static.⁷ Take the case of Samuel Pepys (1633–1703), the diarist who served as secretary of the English Admiralty. In the past five centuries, people with the surname Pepys have attended Oxford and Cambridge universities at a rate at least twenty times that of the general population. Where we can observe the value of their estates, Pepyses left wealth at least five times the British average. Only in a society with extremely low levels of social mobility would we expect a name to persist among the elites in this way.

玛丽·朗和 Holaillustrations / Shutterstock。

Mary Long and Holaillustrations / Shutterstock.

其他国家也有罕见的精英姓氏。美国税务机关在 20 世纪 20 年代初公布了高收入者的姓名。一个世纪后，拥有这些姓氏的人成为医生或律师的可能性是其他人的三到四倍。例如，拥有高地位姓氏 Katz 的美国居民成为医生和律师的可能性是其他人的六倍。

Rare elite surnames endure in other countries too. United States tax authorities reported the names of top income earners in the early 1920s. A century later, people with those surnames are three to four times as likely to be doctors or lawyers. United States residents with the high-status surname Katz, for example, are six times as likely to be doctors and lawyers.

在日本，武士姓氏可以追溯到 1868 年明治维新之前。在现代，医生、律师和学者作家中武士姓氏的比例至少是其四倍。在中国，清姓氏在十九世纪精英阶层中的比例过高，在当代公司董事会主席和政府官员中的比例也过高。

In Japan, samurai surnames date back to before the 1868 Meiji Restoration. In the modern age, they are overrepresented at least fourfold among doctors, lawyers and scholarly authors. In China, Qing surnames overrepresented among the nineteenth-century elite are also overrepresented among contemporary corporate board chairs and government officials.

在智利，19 世纪 50 年代地主中占多数的姓氏在高收入职业中仍然占多数。在瑞典，17 世纪和 18 世纪创造了一组“贵族姓氏”。在当今时代，这些姓氏在医生中所占比例是预期的两倍，在律师中所占比例是预期的五倍。社会地位非常稳定，甚至在十代人中也是如此。

In Chile, surnames overrepresented among landowners in the 1850s are still overrepresented among high-earning occupations. In Sweden, a set of ‘noble surnames’ were created in the 1600s and 1700s. In the current era, those names have twice their expected share of doctors and five times their expected share of lawyers. Social status is remarkably persistent, even over ten generations.

另一个因航运贸易而财富倍增的城市是位于茨温河口的布鲁日。1301 年，这座城市非常富裕，以至于法国女王到访时，她说道：“我以为只有我才是女王，但我发现这里有六百个竞争对手。”⁸两个世纪后，茨温河口淤塞，布鲁日的经济陷入衰退。该地区的商业中心向西迁移了 80 公里（50 英里），来到了安特卫普，那里的船只可以方便停靠。最后，聪明人将这座城市命名为“布鲁日-拉莫特”。

Another city whose fortune was shaped by the shipping trade was Bruges, located on the Zwin estuary. The city was so affluent in 1301 that when the Queen of France visited, she remarked, ‘I thought I alone was queen, but I see that I have six hundred rivals here.’⁸ Two centuries later, when the Zwin estuary silted up, Bruges’s economy withered. The region’s commercial centre moved 80 kilometres (50 miles) west, to Antwerp, where ships could dock easily. Eventually, wits dubbed the city ‘Bruges-La-Morte’.

贸易和移民在带来新思想和可复制产品时最有价值。老花镜于 1290 年左右在意大利发明，并迅速传遍欧洲。1300 年代，商人将玉米（后来是红薯）带到中国，为降雨不足、无法种植水稻的地区提供主食来源；这导致随后几个世纪人口迅速增长。⁹活字印刷机于 1440 年左右在德国发明，开启了印刷革命。此后五十年内生产的书籍数量超过了之前一千年的总和。¹⁰

Trade and migration were at their most valuable when they brought new ideas, and products that could be replicated. Reading glasses were invented in Italy around 1290, and quickly spread across Europe. Traders brought maize to China in the 1300s (and later, sweet potatoes), providing staple food sources in regions that did not get enough rainfall to sustain rice; this led to rapid population growth in the ensuing centuries.⁹ The moveable-type printing press was invented in Germany around 1440, and kickstarted the printing revolution. More books were produced in the next fifty years than had been produced in the previous thousand years.¹⁰

经济学家将实物商品描述为“竞争性的”，而将创意描述为“非竞争性的”。当我把三个苹果递给你时，我不再拥有三个苹果。但如果我教你玩弄苹果，那么我们都会分享乐趣（特别是如果我们不介意吃掉受伤的苹果的话）。非竞争性的概念对于经济学家如何看待创新至关重要。在老花镜和印刷机的例子中，这两项创新都不受知识产权法的保护。这是一个福音对消费者而言，这是因为这意味着其他人可以复制、改编和改进它们。但自由复制的能力降低了发明的动力。在接下来的几个世纪里——从 1474 年威尼斯的专利法开始——各国都制定了专利法，让发明者以分享他们的想法为交换获得暂时的垄断权。

Economists describe physical goods as ‘rivalrous’ and ideas as ‘non-rivalrous’. When I hand over three apples to you, I no longer have three apples. But if I teach you to juggle apples, then we both share the fun (particularly if we don’t mind eating bruised apples). The idea of non-rivalry is essential to how economists think about innovation. In the case of reading glasses and the printing press, neither innovation was protected by intellectual property laws. This was a boon for consumers because it meant that others could copy, adapt and improve them. But the ability to freely copy reduced the incentive to invent. Over the coming centuries – starting with Venice’s patent statute of 1474 – countries put in place patent laws, which gave inventors a temporary monopoly in exchange for sharing their idea.

知识的传播也得益于这一时期的一项重要社会变革：宗教改革。马丁·路德及其追随者脱离天主教会后，鼓励信徒自己阅读圣经。这提高了识字率，促进了德国新教地区的经济发展。事实上，即使在现代德国（路德时代 500 年后），新教徒的受教育程度和收入也更高。¹¹

The dispersion of knowledge also got a boost from one of the key social changes of this period: the Reformation. When Martin Luther and his followers split off from the Catholic Church, they encouraged their adherents to read the Bible for themselves. This boosted literacy levels and fuelled economic development in Protestant areas of Germany. Indeed, even in modern-day Germany – 500 years after Luther – Protestants tend to be more educated and have higher incomes.¹¹

在中世纪（公元 5 世纪至 15 世纪），宗教还以其他方式影响着经济发展。犹太人社区之间紧密的信任关系使他们在放贷和汇款业务中占据着有利可图的地位，而这种业务既有利可图，又不为人所知。自公元 610 年创立以来，伊斯兰教就与贸易紧密相连（穆罕默德是一名商人），穆斯林之间的信任有助于增加伊斯兰社区的商业活动。¹²经济学也有助于解释宗教战争。第一次十字军东征（1096-1099）可以看作是天主教会扩大其对新领土垄断的一次尝试。^十三

In the Middle Ages – the period from the fifth to the fifteenth century – religion also affected economic development in other ways. Tight bonds of trust among Jewish communities made them ideally placed to succeed in the moneylending and money-transfer business, which was both profitable and stigmatised. From its inception in 610 CE, Islam was closely connected to trade (Mohammed was a merchant), and trust between Muslims helped to increase commerce in Islamic communities.¹² Economics also helps explain religious wars. The First Crusade (1096–1099) can be seen as an attempt by the Catholic Church to expand its monopoly over new territories.¹³

中世纪时，欧洲许多人生活在封建制度下，土地归领主所有，农民耕种。实际上，农民养活了贵族以换取免受盗匪侵害的保护。晋升的机会很少，僧侣们维持着社会秩序。

During the Middle Ages, many in Europe lived under feudalism, a system in which land was owned by the lords and farmed by the peasantry. In effect, peasants fed the nobility in exchange for protection against bandits. There were few chances to move up the hierarchy, and the clergy maintained the social order.

工匠们经常会把价格刻在墙上的石头上，因为他们知道价格不会在一代又一代之间发生太大变化。虽然有一些技术变革（例如我们之前提到的水磨坊的普及），但生活仍然很艰难。即使到了中世纪末期，大多数人的饮食仍然很清淡，偶尔吃肉和鱼来补充没有胃口的炖菜和千篇一律的淀粉类谷物。当时没有印刷书籍，大多数家庭几乎没有家具，也没有自来水。感染的抓伤可能导致死亡，疾病很常见。三分之一的婴儿在一岁生日前死亡，分娩夺走了三分之一的母亲的生命。¹⁴

It was not uncommon for artisans to literally carve their prices in stone on the wall, knowing that their rates would not change much from one generation to the next. There were some technological changes (such as the proliferation of watermills we noted earlier), but life remained tough. Even by the end of the Middle Ages, most people would have eaten a plain diet, with only occasional meat and fish to supplement unappetising stews and unvarying starchy grains. There were no printed books, most homes had little furniture, and no one had running water. An infected scratch could lead to death, and illness was common. One in three babies died before their first birthday, and childbirth claimed the life of one-third of mothers.¹⁴

最严重的细菌是鼠疫耶尔森氏菌，又称黑死病。这种腺鼠疫起源于中亚，1347 年由从黑海航行的热那亚商人传入欧洲。它夺走了欧洲约三分之一的人口的生命——比最残酷的战争造成的损失还要大。在开罗，它夺走了一半的人口的生命。1349 年，前往麦加朝觐的穆斯林将这种疾病带到了麦加。在城市里，距离的接近加速了疾病的传播，因此人们逃往乡下。其中最著名的是乔凡尼·薄伽丘，他逃离佛罗伦萨——一个曾导致多达四分之三人口死亡的城市——去写作巨著《十日谈》。从 1300 年到 1400 年，世界人口从 4.3 亿减少到 3.5 亿。

The worst bacteria was yersinia pestis, dubbed the Black Death. The bubonic plague originated in Central Asia and was brought to Europe in 1347 by Genoese traders sailing from the Black Sea. It killed around one-third of Europe’s population – a higher toll than even the most brutal wars. In Cairo, it killed half the population. Muslims making the hajj brought the disease to Mecca in 1349. In cities, proximity accelerated the spread of the disease, so people fled to the countryside. Among the most famous is Giovanni Boccaccio, who fled Florence – a city where up to three-quarters of the population died – to write his masterpiece The Decameron. From 1300 to 1400, the world population shrank from 430 million to 350 million.

黑死病也生动地说明了经济学的作用。¹⁵工人的短缺使欧洲的实际工资（即扣除通货膨胀因素后的工资）翻了一番。土地突然变得相对丰富，因此租金下降。这有助于将权力平衡转向有利于农民而不是地主。在很大程度上，瘟疫摧毁了封建制度。黑死病也影响了物价。小麦等简单食品变得更便宜。需要大量劳动力的制成品变得更贵。随着工资上涨和土地租金下降，农民将生产转向土地密集型农业，例如养牛和养羊。为了应对收入的增加，工人开始吃更多的肉。啤酒的需求不断增长，这是当时生活水平的标志。

The Black Death also provides a dramatic illustration of economics in action.¹⁵ A scarcity of workers doubled European real wages (that is, wages after inflation). Suddenly land was relatively abundant, so rents declined. This helped shift the power balance in favour of peasants and against landowners. To a large extent, the plague killed feudalism. The Black Death also affected prices. Simple foodstuffs such as wheat became cheaper. Manufactured goods that required a lot of labour became more expensive. With wages rising and land rents falling, farmers shifted their production towards land-intensive agriculture, such as cattle and sheep farming. Responding to the increase in their incomes, workers started to eat more meat. There was a growing demand for beer, a marker of living standards in this era.

“上帝保佑伦敦”：一幅描绘黑死病的木刻画。

‘Lord have mercy on London’: a woodcut depicting the Black Death.

未知艺术家，约 1665 年。图片来自 Wikimedia Commons。

Unknown artist, c. 1665. Image via Wikimedia Commons.

以今天的标准来看，欧洲的发展速度可能比较慢，但到了 15 世纪，它却是全球最富裕的地区。正如我们所见，欧洲的成功源于运气。与非洲和美洲相比，欧亚大陆拥有更多可驯养的动植物，其广阔的地理环境使人们能够分布得更远，同时又能保持相同的气候带。

Growth in Europe may have been slow by today’s standards, but by the 1400s, it was the most affluent region of the globe. As we have seen, Europe’s success was rooted in luck. Compared with Africa and the Americas, Eurasia had more domesticable plants and animals, and its wide geography allowed people to range further while staying in the same climatic band.

3 航海时代

The Age of Sail

欧洲的相对繁荣推动了航海技术的稳步发展。当时的船只有三桅或“全帆”，船体更坚固，使用舵而不是舵桨。船帆的进步使人们能够逆风航行。更大的船只可以航行更远。更好的指南针、地图和对风向的了解使船只能够沿着最快的路线航行。海星盘的发明使水手们能够确定自己的纬度。

THE RELATIVE PROSPERITY OF EUROPE funded steady improvements in maritime technology. The ships of this era were three-masted or ‘full-rigged’, had sturdier hulls, and used rudders instead of steering oars. Advances in sails made it possible to tack into the wind. Bigger ships could make longer voyages. Better compasses, maps and understanding of wind patterns allowed ships to follow the fastest routes. The invention of the sea astrolabe allowed sailors to figure out their latitude.

尽管如此，早期探险家们还是有很多不知道的东西。1492 年，克里斯托弗·哥伦布横渡大西洋时，他原本期望到达印度和中国，而不是美洲（西印度群岛的命名不准确反映了这一错误）。随后，其他大型探险队也相继出现。1498 年，瓦斯科·达·伽马开辟了一条通往印度的海上航线。1519 年，斐迪南·麦哲伦开始了第一次环球航行的探险（尽管麦哲伦本人没有回家，死于菲律宾的一场战斗中）。经济是这些探险的核心是探险者寻求用新产品、新市场和新土地来资助他们的旅程。

Still, there was plenty that early explorers didn’t know. When Christopher Columbus sailed across the Atlantic in 1492, he was expecting to reach India and China, not the Americas (the inaccurate naming of the West Indies reflects this mistake). Other major expeditions followed. In 1498, Vasco da Gama established a sea route to India. In 1519, Ferdinand Magellan began an expedition that would be the first to circumnavigate the globe (though Magellan himself did not make it home, dying in a battle in the Philippines). Economics was at the heart of these expeditions – explorers sought to fund their journeys with new products, new markets and new land.

发现新国家和降低运输成本都是贸易增长不可或缺的部分。16 世纪，“哥伦布大交换”将美洲的玉米、土豆和辣椒带到了欧洲，将橙子、糖和猪带到了美洲。不幸的是，它也将天花、麻疹、流感和水痘等疾病带到了美洲，导致一些地方超过五分之四的人口死亡。

Discovering new countries and lowering the cost of transport were both integral to the growth of trade. In the 1500s, the ‘Columbian exchange’ brought corn, potatoes and chillies from the Americas to Europe, and oranges, sugar and pigs to the Americas. Tragically, it also brought diseases such as smallpox, measles, influenza and chickenpox to the Americas, killing more than four-fifths of the population in some places.

贸易的另一个令人憎恶的方面是 1501 年至 1866 年间跨越大西洋贩运了超过 1200 万人。¹此项残酷活动的规模令人难以置信。² 18 世纪，欧洲人将非洲约 10% 的人口贩卖到大西洋彼岸。被贩卖到海里的奴隶营养不良，疾病肆虐，超过十分之一的人在旅途中丧生。在奴隶市场，父母与子女、配偶分离是常有的事。对新奥尔良奴隶市场（美国最大的奴隶市场）的分析估计，被贩卖的奴隶中有超过五分之四的人与直系亲属分离。³

Another abominable aspect of trade was the trafficking of more than 12 million people across the Atlantic Ocean between 1501 and 1866.¹ The scale of this brutal enterprise is mind-boggling.² In the 1700s, Europeans trafficked around 10 per cent of Africa’s population across the Atlantic. Packed onto ships, underfed and vulnerable to disease, over one in ten captured people did not survive the journey. In slave markets, it was routine to separate parents from their children, and spouses from one another. An analysis of the New Orleans slave market (the largest in the United States) estimates that more than four-fifths of people sold were separated from immediate family members.³

葡萄牙人几乎俘获了所有奴隶中的一半，其中三分之一以上被带到了巴西。西班牙人、法国人和荷兰人也是著名的奴隶贩子。在加勒比海和美洲的目的地殖民地，奴隶被迫种植劳动密集型作物——最初是糖，然后是棉花和烟草。奴隶制是到 18 世纪末，这一数字占英国国民收入的 5% 左右，并推动了英国的工业发展。⁴

The Portuguese were responsible for almost half of all enslaved people taken, with Brazil being the destination for more than one-third of them. The Spanish, French and Dutch were also prominent slave traders. In destination colonies in the Caribbean and the Americas, enslaved people were forced to work on labour-intensive crops – initially sugar, then cotton and tobacco. Slave holding was a major source of wealth in some European nations, accounting for around 5 per cent of British national income by the late 1700s and helping fuel that country’s industrial development.⁴

在同一时期，黄金和白银成为重要的出口产品。从 1500 年到 1800 年，数万吨白银从墨西哥和玻利维亚运往西班牙。然而，在欧洲列强敌对的时代，如果遇到其他国家的船只，水手们就不能指望安全通行。在一次事件中，英国探险家出身的海盗弗朗西斯·德雷克抢劫了一艘载有 36 公斤（79 磅）黄金和 26 吨（29 美吨）白银的西班牙船只。他在英国被誉为英雄，在西班牙被斥为罪犯。

During the same era, gold and silver became vital exports. From 1500 to 1800, tens of thousands of tonnes of silver were shipped to Spain from Mexico and Bolivia. However, in an era of hostility between European powers, sailors could not expect safe passage if they encountered ships from other nations. In one incident, English explorer-turned-pirate Francis Drake robbed a Spanish ship carrying 36 kilograms (79 pounds) of gold and 26 tonnes (29 US tons) of silver. He was lauded as a hero in England and reviled as a criminal in Spain.

但西班牙或许不应该对德雷克的盗窃行为如此愤怒，因为大量黄金和白银的涌入最终会损害其经济。⁵贵金属是当时的货币，因此满载黄金和白银的船只抵达就相当于现代政府印发了过多的货币。商品和服务价格上涨。进口增长，出口萎缩。值得注意的是，贵金属抵达的地区安达卢西亚最早受到影响。西班牙的船舶、绳索和丝绸制造商发现自己无法在世界市场上竞争，他们的业务倒闭了。1500 年，西班牙是世界上最富有的国家之一。两个世纪后，它成了一潭死水。与西班牙经历相似的是现代的资源诅咒，宝贵的矿产资产最终可能使一个国家陷入贫困。在低收入国家中，拥有大量资源储备的国家往往增长较慢。

But perhaps Spain should not have been so outraged by Drake’s theft, because the massive influx of gold and silver would ultimately harm its economy.⁵ Precious metals were the currency of the day, so the arrival of ships laden with gold and silver was the equivalent of a modern government printing too much money. Prices of goods and services rose. Imports grew and exports shrank. Tellingly, the region where the precious metals arrived, Andalusia, suffered earliest. Spanish manufacturers of ships, rope and silk found themselves unable to compete on the world market, and their businesses collapsed. In 1500, Spain was one of the world’s wealthiest nations. Two centuries later, it was a backwater. An echo of Spain’s experience is the modern-day resource curse, in which valuable mineral assets can end up impoverishing a nation. Among low-income nations, those with significant resource deposits tend to grow more slowly.

美第奇家族

THE MEDICI

意大利的美第奇家族是历史上最成功的慈善家之一。他们资助了布鲁内莱斯基、波提切利、达芬奇、米开朗基罗和拉斐尔等众多艺术家，推动了意大利文艺复兴。他们支持天文学家伽利略·伽利莱，委托建造佛罗伦萨的波波里花园，并建造了乌菲兹美术馆。

Among the most successful philanthropists in history were Italy’s Medici family. By sponsoring a slew of artists, including Brunelleschi, Botticelli, Da Vinci, Michelangelo and Raphael, they helped bring about the Italian Renaissance. They supported astronomer Galileo Galilei, commissioned Florence’s Boboli Gardens and built the Uffizi Gallery.

美第奇家族原籍托斯卡纳北部的一个村庄，12 世纪时，家族成员移居佛罗伦萨，以纺织贸易为生。1397 年，该家族成立了美第奇银行，该银行成为欧洲最大的银行。他们是最早使用复式记账法的银行之一，并受益于佛罗伦萨强大的手工艺优势，这些优势由一系列强大的行会控制。

Originally from a village in northern Tuscany, members of the Medici family moved to Florence in the twelfth century, making their living in the textile trade. In 1397, the family formed the Medici Bank, which became the largest bank in Europe. They were among the first to use double-entry bookkeeping, and benefited from Florence’s strength in crafts, controlled by a series of powerful guilds.

作为银行家，美第奇家族对经济稳定很感兴趣，并与佛罗伦萨的其他强大家族建立了关系。他们的重点是通过贸易获取资源，而不是通过军事征服夺取土地。在 15 世纪的大部分时间里，佛罗伦萨由美第奇家族的三代统治：科西莫、皮耶罗和洛伦佐。

As bankers, the Medici family had an interest in economic stability, and formed relationships with other powerful families in Florence. Their focus was on acquiring resources through trade, not seizing land through military conquest. For most of the 1400s, Florence was ruled by three generations of the Medici: Cosimo, Piero and Lorenzo.

洛伦佐·德·美第奇，又名洛伦佐·美第奇，是意大利文艺复兴时期最重要的赞助人。

Lorenzo de’ Medici, dubbed Lorenzo the Magnificent, was the most significant patron of the Italian Renaissance.

布龙齐诺工作室，《洛伦佐·美第奇肖像》，约 1565-69 年，乌菲兹美术馆。图片来自 Wikimedia Commons。

Workshop of Bronzino, Portrait of Lorenzo the Magnificent, c. 1565–69, Uffizi Gallery. Image via Wikimedia Commons.

佛罗伦萨美第奇家族的统治曾两次中断（1494-1512 年和 1527-1530 年），但他们继续在意大利建立自己的势力。1513 年至 1605 年间，美第奇家族产生了四位天主教教皇——利奥十世、克莱门特七世、庇护四世和利奥十一世。在同一时期，该家族还产生了两位法国皇后：凯瑟琳·德·美第奇和玛丽·德·美第奇。该家族的势力在十八世纪逐渐减弱，但他们对艺术和建筑的持久影响至今仍激励着富有的赞助人。

The rule of the Medici in Florence was interrupted on two occasions (1494–1512 and 1527–1530), but they continued to build their power across Italy. Between 1513 and 1605, the Medici family produced four popes of the Catholic Church – Pope Leo X, Pope Clement VII, Pope Pius IV and Pope Leo XI. In the same era, the family also produced two queens of France: Catherine de’ Medici and Marie de’ Medici. The family’s power waned in the eighteenth century, but their enduring impact on art and architecture continues to inspire wealthy patrons today.

尽管欧洲殖民者带来了致命的病毒，但他们也容易感染当地疾病。由于风险差异巨大，疾病模式塑造了“大航海时代”的殖民模式。⁶ 17 世纪初，英国清教徒先驱们曾考虑乘坐五月花号前往南美洲的圭亚那，但最终选择了美国，因为圭亚那的死亡率很高。在西非，疟疾和其他热带疾病在抵达后的第一年就夺走了大约一半欧洲定居者的生命，这实际上阻碍了他们修建道路和建立机构的努力。在死亡率如此高的地区，人们几乎没有动力投资。

Although European colonialists brought deadly viruses, they were also susceptible to local diseases. Because the risks varied dramatically, disease patterns shaped the patterns of colonialism in the ‘Age of Discovery’.⁶ In the early 1600s, the English Pilgrim Fathers considered sailing the Mayflower to Guyana in South America, but ultimately chose the United States because of the high mortality rates in Guyana. In West Africa, malaria and other tropical diseases claimed the lives of about half of all European settlers in the first year after arriving – effectively thwarting attempts to establish roads and institutions. There was little incentive to invest in areas where the chance of dying was so terrifyingly high.

在加拿大、美国、智利和澳大利亚等定居者死亡率相对较低的国家，殖民国家投资了从铁路到大学等一切设施。在尼日利亚、安哥拉和马达加斯加等定居者死亡率较高的国家，殖民国家与移民的关系从根本上讲是榨取性的，目的是榨取尽可能多的财富。定居者带走了奴隶、黄金和其他贵重商品。这种榨取方式在殖民时代末期达到了最低谷，当时比利时国王利奥波德二世对刚果进行了无情的剥削：杀害、致残并偷窃当地居民。虽然没有什么可以为榨取性殖民主义的野蛮行径开脱，但疟疾流行的差异有助于解释为什么欧洲定居者在美国的投资远多于在西非的投资，以及为什么跨大西洋奴隶贸易是从东向西进行的，而不是相反。

In countries where settler mortality was relatively low, such as Canada, the United States, Chile and Australia, colonial powers invested in everything from railways to universities. In nations where settler mortality was high – such as Nigeria, Angola and Madagascar – the relationship was fundamentally extractive, designed to remove as much wealth as possible. Settlers took slaves, gold and other precious commodities. The extractive approach reached its nadir at the end of the colonial era, when Belgium’s King Leopold II ruthlessly exploited the Congo: killing, maiming and stealing from the native population. Though nothing can excuse the barbarism of extractive colonialism, the differing prevalence of malaria helps explain why European settlers invested far more in the United States than in West Africa, and why the trans-Atlantic slave trade went from east to west, rather than the other way around.

殖民主义并不总是政府的事业。历史上最大的公司可能是荷兰东印度公司，这是一家跨国公司，成立于 1602 年，由几家贸易公司合并而成。在接下来的两个世纪里，荷兰东印度公司维持着武装部队，建造堡垒，与当地统治者缔结条约，总体上表现得像一个殖民强国。它从事香料、丝绸、咖啡、甘蔗和葡萄酒贸易，拥有数百艘船只，雇佣了数万人。该公司的业务以印度尼西亚为中心，在中国、日本、印度、斯里兰卡和南非设有主要前哨。

Colonialism was not always a government enterprise. The largest company in history may well have been the Dutch East India Company, a multinational formed in 1602 by the merger of several trading companies. Over the next two centuries, the Dutch East India Company maintained armed forces, built forts, concluded treaties with native rulers and generally behaved like a colonial power. It traded in spices, silk, coffee, sugarcane and wine, owned hundreds of ships and employed tens of thousands of people. With its operations centred on Indonesia, the company had major outposts in China, Japan, India, Sri Lanka and South Africa.

由于投资者可以购买荷兰东印度公司的股票，因此该公司是世界上第一家上市公司。从投资者的角度来看，这很有吸引力，因为它可以集中风险。股东可以将少量资金投资于许多不同的航运探险，而不是将所有风险都押在一艘船上。航海可能有利可图，但也非常危险。海盗、风暴和坏血病可能会毁掉一次航行。价格可能会突然变化。正如大多数现代投资者喜欢广泛的股票投资组合一样，17 世纪的投资者更喜欢将资金投入一家大公司。投资者还喜欢荷兰东印度公司的垄断地位，荷兰政府授予其代表荷兰在亚洲经营的独家权力。但消费者为此付出了代价，因为该公司利用其市场地位在其控制的航线上收取过高的费用。

Because investors could buy shares in the Dutch East India Company, it was the world’s first public company. From the standpoint of investors, this was attractive because it pooled risk. Rather than chancing everything on a single ship, shareholders could invest a small amount in many different shipping expeditions. Seafaring was potentially profitable but also immensely hazardous. Pirates, storms and scurvy could doom a voyage. Prices might suddenly change. Just as most modern investors prefer a broad portfolio of stocks, the investors of the 1600s preferred to put their money in a big company. Investors also liked the fact that the Dutch East India Company was a monopoly, with the Dutch government granting it an exclusive power to operate in Asia on behalf of the Netherlands. But consumers paid the price, as the company used its market position to overcharge on routes that it controlled.

英国东印度公司的情况也大体如此，其垄断地位使其能够铸造货币、组建军队、征收税款、进行刑事审判和运送奴隶来自亚洲和非洲的香料。在印度尼西亚的马鲁古群岛（当时称为香料群岛），该公司与荷兰公司的冲突引发了四次英荷战争。在印度，英国东印度公司的权力基本上不受制约。通过武力和与印度省级统治者签订条约，英国东印度公司控制了印度次大陆三分之二的地区——即今天的印度、巴基斯坦和孟加拉国。⁷英国东印度公司以惊人的方式影响了我们的世界。美国独立战争开始时，该公司生产的茶叶被倾倒到波士顿港，而该公司向中国出售鸦片引发的冲突则引发了鸦片战争。茶商托马斯·特温宁和大学捐助人伊莱胡·耶鲁都是在英国东印度公司工作起家的（该公司因耶鲁腐败而解雇了他，而他的不义之财帮助创办了以他的名字命名的大学）。

Much the same was true of the British East India Company, whose monopoly allowed it to mint money, raise an army, collect taxes, run criminal trials and transport enslaved people from Asia and Africa. In the Indonesian Maluku Islands, then known as the Spice Islands, conflict between the company and its Dutch counterpart helped provoke four Anglo-Dutch wars. In India, the power of the British East India Company was largely unchecked. Through force of arms and treaties with Indian provincial rulers, the British East India Company came to control two-thirds of the Indian subcontinent – the area that makes up modern-day India, Pakistan and Bangladesh.⁷ The British East India company has touched our world in astonishing ways. Its tea was dumped into Boston Harbor at the start of the American Revolution, and conflict over its opium sales to China sparked the Opium Wars. Tea merchant Thomas Twining and university benefactor Elihu Yale got their start working for the British East India Company (the company fired Yale for corruption, and his ill-gotten gains helped kickstart the university that bears his name).

这幅版画描绘了英国东印度公司的船只离开伍利奇的情景。

A print depicting ships of the British East India Company leaving Woolwich.

Duncan1890 / iStockPhoto。

Duncan1890 / iStockPhoto.

公海风险催生出巧妙的经济解决方案。在古希腊，组织航运的人出售“底价债券”，如果船抵达港口，债券将支付高额利息，但如果船沉没，则无需支付利息。1293 年，葡萄牙国王丹尼斯建立了欧洲首个海上保险基金，允许商人组织航行而不必承担全部灾难风险。⁸保险的起源至今仍然具有现实意义。保险在承保毁灭性风险时最为有用：房屋被烧毁、撞上昂贵的汽车、家庭唯一收入来源的死亡。但如果某件物品的价格低于一个月的收入，你最好冒这个险。为你的房屋投保，而不是为你的手机投保。

Risk on the high seas called forth ingenious economic solutions. In Ancient Greece, those organising a shipping voyage sold ‘bottomry bonds’, which paid a high rate of interest if the ship reached port, but nothing if it sank. In 1293, Portugal’s King Denis established Europe’s first marine insurance fund, allowing merchants to organise voyages without bearing the entire risk of catastrophe.⁸ The origins of insurance remain relevant today. Insurance is most useful when it covers a ruinous risk: the house burning down, crashing into an expensive car, the death of a family’s sole earner. But if the cost of an item is less than a month’s income, you’re probably better taking the risk. Insure your home, not your mobile phone.

纵观历史，人类面临的最大风险之一就是资源枯竭。如果你一开始就没有足够的钱，就很难避免贫困。在中世纪，社会保险出现之前，穷人几乎得不到任何帮助。在英国，对那些无法工作的人的援助源于一种强烈的道德观念，即福利只适用于“值得帮助的穷人”。在 16 世纪，乞讨会受到鞭刑、监禁、烙印（在“V”字母上写上流浪汉的字样）甚至绞刑。这让许多无法工作的人不得不在挨饿和受罚之间做出选择。

Throughout history, one of the greatest risks humans have faced is running out of resources. And if you don’t have much money to begin with, poverty is hard to insure against. In the Middle Ages, before social insurance, the destitute received little help. In England, assistance for those who were unable to work emerged from a strong moral sense that welfare was only for the ‘deserving poor’. In the 1500s, begging was punished by whipping, jail, branding (with the letter ‘V’ for vagabond) and even hanging. This left many who were unable to work with a choice between starvation or punishment.

在法国，1561 年的穆兰法令建立了救济制度，要求地方当局向穷人提供援助，同时授权当局要求体格健全的个人工作以换取他们所得到的援助。1601 年的英国济贫法也秉承了类似的理念，为穷人提供微薄的配给通过教区发放救济金，但却不将这些“教区面包”发给“不值得帮助的穷人”。即使社会有能力养活那些挨饿的人，人们也过分担心提供援助会削弱他们工作的积极性。

In France, the Moulins Ordinance of 1561 established a system of poor relief that required local authorities to provide assistance to the poor, while empowering authorities to demand that able-bodied individuals work in exchange for any aid they received. A similar philosophy underpinned the English Poor Laws of 1601, which provided meagre rations through parishes, but withheld these ‘parish loaves’ from the ‘undeserving poor’. Even when society could afford to feed those who were starving, there was an excessive concern that providing aid could blunt the incentive to work.

莎士比亚的大部分戏剧创作于 1590 年至 1610 年之间。观看《哈姆雷特》或《罗密欧与朱丽叶》，莎士比亚和他的同代人会感觉与我们很相似，他们正在努力应对爱情、希望和背叛的相同挑战。甚至还有经济教训—— 《暴风雨》提醒我们全球贸易的风险，《威尼斯商人》探讨了执行合同的问题，《亨利四世》对稀缺性进行了深刻的观察。

Shakespeare wrote most of his plays between 1590 and 1610. Watching Hamlet or Romeo and Juliet, the Bard and his generation can feel close to us, grappling with the same challenges of love, hope and betrayal. There are even economic lessons – The Tempest reminds us of the hazards of global commerce, The Merchant of Venice explores the problem of enforcing contracts and Henry IV contains insightful observations on scarcity.

但从另一个意义上说，莎士比亚的世界离我们很遥远。他所处的时代是一个奴隶制和迷信的时代。在 16 世纪和 17 世纪，有近 100 万人因巫术罪被杀害。这种残酷程度如此之大，以至于在一个德国城镇，一天就有 400 人被杀。大多数受害者都是贫穷的妇女，其中许多是寡妇。经济学家艾米莉·奥斯特 (Emily Oster) 在一项有趣的分析中表明，歉收是巫术审判的有力预测因素。⁹当经济状况恶化时，人们就会寻找替罪羊。巫术审判最活跃的时期恰逢“小冰河期”最寒冷的时期：1590 年代以及 1680 年至 1730 年之间。

But in another sense, the world of Shakespeare was a long way away. His was an age of slavery and superstition. During the 1500s and 1600s, nearly one million people were killed for the crime of witchcraft. Such was the scale of the brutality that in one German town, 400 were killed on a single day. Most of the victims were poor women, many of them widows. In one intriguing analysis, economist Emily Oster shows that bad harvests were a strong predictor of witchcraft trials.⁹ When economic conditions deteriorated, people looked for a scapegoat. The most active period of witchcraft trials coincided with the coldest periods of the ‘little ice age’: in the 1590s and between 1680 and 1730.

郁金香狂热

TULIP MANIA

16 世纪中期，郁金香从奥斯曼帝国传入欧洲。它们鲜艳的色彩与当时欧洲的任何花卉都不同。植物学家培育出不同的品种，创造出了丰富的色彩。园艺师发现，通过用花叶病毒感染球茎，可以培育出带有第二种颜色条纹的花瓣。

Tulips were introduced to Europe from the Ottoman Empire in the mid-1500s. Their intense colours made them unlike any flower seen in Europe at the time. Botanists bred different varieties, creating a profusion of colours. Horticulturalists discovered that by infecting the bulbs with the mosaic virus, it was possible to create petals streaked with a second colour.

凭借强大的金融市场，荷兰在 17 世纪成为郁金香的中心。郁金香的销售发生在休眠期，即 6 月至 9 月，此时球茎可以挖出并移栽。

With their strong financial markets, the Netherlands became the epicentre for tulips during the 1600s. Tulip sales occurred in the dormant phase, from June to September, when bulbs can be dug up and relocated.

随着郁金香热潮的兴起，感染花叶病毒的郁金香价格也一路飙升。这并非完全不合理，因为时尚的郁金香只能通过感染母球芽进行繁殖，而不能通过普通的种子繁殖。1625 年，一颗 Semper Augustus 郁金香球茎的售价为 2000 荷兰盾，相当于现在的 16,000 美元。¹⁰ 1637年，物价暴跌。

As tulip mania grew, the prices of tulips infected with the mosaic virus surged. This was not entirely irrational, since a fashionable tulip could only be propagated by budding the infected mother bulb, not through ordinary seed propagation. In 1625, a Semper Augustus tulip bulb sold for 2000 guilders, the modern equivalent of US$16,000.¹⁰ In 1637, prices crashed.

“永远奥古斯都”郁金香在十七世纪二十年代的欧洲引起轰动。

The Semper Augustus tulip caused a stir in 1620s Europe.

未知艺术家，约 1640 年，诺顿西蒙艺术基金会。图片来自 Wikimedia Commons。

Unknown artist, c. 1640, Norton Simon Art Foundation. Image via Wikimedia Commons.

郁金香市场的崩溃通常被称为历史上的第一次金融泡沫之一。但和所有美好的传说一样，这个故事也包含夸张的成分。经济学家观察到，只有最稀缺的球茎（感染了花叶病毒的球茎）才能卖出如此高的价格，而且价格在五年内下跌了约三分之二到五分之四——跌幅并不像有时报道的那样剧烈。

The collapse of the tulip market is often referred to as one of history’s first financial bubbles. But like all good tales, this one contains elements of exaggeration. Economists observe that the extraordinary prices were only paid for the scarcest bulbs (those infected with mosaic virus), and that prices fell by around two-thirds to four-fifths over a five-year period – not as dramatic a drop as has sometimes been reported.

郁金香狂热促进了创新的蓬勃发展。到 18 世纪初，荷兰植物学家已经培育出许多新品种，风信子取代郁金香成为欧洲最时尚的花卉。与其他金融泡沫不同，郁金香狂热并未影响荷兰经济，荷兰经济在此期间一直保持繁荣。

Tulip mania encouraged the flowering of innovation. By the early 1700s, Dutch botanists had created many new varieties, and the hyacinth replaced the tulip as Europe’s most fashionable flower. Unlike other financial bubbles, tulip mania did not affect the Dutch economy, which continued to prosper throughout this era.

4 工业革命与国富论

The Industrial Revolution and the Wealth of Nations

在人类历史长河中，生活水平的提高是一个相对较新的现象。正如我们所见，农业革命使人口得以增长，但大多数人的物质条件几乎没有改变。在日本，1000 年的平均实际收入为每天 2.80 美元，1700 年为每天 2.90 美元。¹这并不是什么例外：在那个时代，孩子的生活比父母更富裕是不寻常的。事实上，一位经济历史学家进一步指出，在 18 世纪，世界上大多数人口的生活并不比非洲大草原上的祖先好。²他们不再长高，寿命不再延长，卡路里摄入量也不再增加。简·奥斯汀小说中那些喝茶的人是贫困是常态的世界中罕见的例外。经济增长主要导致人口增加，而不是生活水平提高。

IN THE SWEEP OF HUMAN HISTORY, rising living standards are a relatively new phenomenon. As we have seen, the agricultural revolution enabled populations to expand, but the material circumstances for most people barely changed. In Japan, the average real income was US$2.80 a day in 1000, and US$2.90 a day in 1700.¹ This was not an exceptional story: it would have been unusual in this era for children to live more prosperous lives than their parents. Indeed, one economic historian goes further, arguing that in the 1700s most of the world’s population lived lives that were no better than their ancestors’ on the African savannah.² They were no taller, their life expectancy was no longer, and they consumed no more calories. The tea-sippers who populate Jane Austen’s novels were the rare exception in a world where poverty was the norm. Mostly, economic growth had led to a bigger population, not a better standard of living.

随着工业革命，一切都发生了改变。从那时起，出生时的预期寿命增加了一倍，实际收入增加了十四倍，平均身高增加了约10厘米（4英寸）。³在现代经济中，我们期望经济增长能为每一代人带来更高的生活水平。但在工业革命之前，经济增长参差不齐且缓慢。

All that changed with the industrial revolution. Since then, life expectancy at birth has doubled, real incomes have increased fourteen-fold, and average heights have increased by around 10 centimetres (4 inches).³ In the modern economy, we expect growth to deliver higher living standards with each successive generation. But before the industrial revolution, economic growth was patchy and slow.

经济学家罗伯特·艾伦认为，理解工业革命的最好方式是将其视为一系列相互关联的革命。⁴英国农业产量很高，这要归功于选择性植物育种、改良土壤耕作和轮作。由于生产粮食所需的人越来越少，英国经历了一场“城市革命”，到 1750 年，四分之一的人口居住在城市。城市化反过来又推动了一场“商业革命”：这是伦敦和其他英国城市密集社交网络的产物。进出口迅速增长，私人银行的出现促进了航运贸易。城市也促进了创新。正如经济学家阿尔弗雷德·马歇尔后来指出的那样，物理上的接近创造了一种“空气中”的东西——一种新想法被迅速分享和改进的环境。正如今天的科技公司在硅谷的生产力更高一样，工业革命时期的工业家在英格兰城市的生产力也更高。

Economist Robert Allen argues that the best way of understanding the industrial revolution is as a set of interlocking revolutions.⁴ English agriculture was highly productive, thanks to selective plant breeding, improved soil tillage, and rotation of crops. Because fewer people were required to produce food, England experienced an ‘urban revolution’, with one-quarter of the population living in cities by 1750. Urbanisation, in turn, fuelled a ‘commercial revolution’: a product of the dense social networks in London and other English cities. Imports and exports grew rapidly, and private banks emerged to facilitate the shipping trade. Cities also enabled innovation. As economist Alfred Marshall would later note, physical proximity creates something ‘in the air’ – an environment in which new ideas are rapidly shared and improved. Just as technology firms today are more productive in Silicon Valley, industrialists were more productive in the English cities of the industrial revolution.

在相互关联的革命中，最重要的是技术革命。18 世纪，“一股小发明浪潮席卷了英国”。⁵詹姆斯·哈格里夫斯的珍妮纺纱机让工人能够纺出多根棉线，最终使单台棉线生产效率提高了 100 倍一代。⁶钢铁行业发生了翻天覆地的变化，焦炭取代了木炭，铁棒的生产采用了熔炼工艺，高炉也变得更大。托马斯·纽科门于 1712 年发明了蒸汽机，詹姆斯·瓦特在 18 世纪 60 年代和 70 年代对其进行了改进。英国丰富的煤炭储量对蒸汽机的成功至关重要，并开始导致大气中碳元素的积累，我们现在知道，碳元素积累会导致气候变化。

Among the interlocking revolutions, the most important was technological. During the 1700s, ‘a wave of gadgets swept over England’.⁵ James Hargreaves’s spinning jenny let workers spin multiple threads, eventually making the process of producing cotton thread 100 times more efficient in a single generation.⁶ The iron industry was transformed by using coke rather than charcoal, the puddling process to produce bar iron, and larger blast furnaces. Thomas Newcomen invented the steam engine in 1712, and James Watt refined it in the 1760s and 1770s. England’s abundant coal reserves were important to the success of steam and began contributing to the build-up of atmospheric carbon that we now know causes climate change.

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詹姆斯·瓦特的燃煤蒸汽机，于 1769 年获得专利。

James Watt’s coal-powered steam engine, patented in 1769.

詹姆斯瓦特的专利，来自 itakehistory.com。

James Watt’s Patent via itakehistory.com.

“通用技术”是可以促进经济发展的创新，但往往需要时间才能产生影响。燃煤蒸汽机最终彻底改变了工厂，改变了航运，实现了火车旅行。然而，制造商需要时间才能充分利用燃煤动力。当詹姆斯·瓦特的专利于 1800 年到期时，英国工厂使用的水力发电量仍然是煤电的三倍。⁷第一条主要铁路线——从利物浦到曼彻斯特——直到 1830 年才开通。直到本世纪中叶，英国劳动生产率增长的一半才归功于煤炭。工业革命持续如此之久的原因之一是人们花了近一个世纪的时间才正确利用煤炭。

‘General-purpose technologies’ are innovations that can supercharge economic development, but often take time to have an impact. Coal-powered steam engines ultimately revolutionised factories, transformed shipping and enabled train travel. Yet it took time for manufacturers to make the most of coal power. When James Watt’s patent expired in 1800, British factories were still using three times as much water power as coal power.⁷ The first major railway line – from Liverpool to Manchester – did not open until 1830. It was not until the middle of the century that half the growth in Britain’s labour productivity was due to coal. One reason the industrial revolution lasted such a long time is that it took almost a century for people to properly harness coal.

在其他通用技术中也可以看到同样的模式。电动机发明于 19 世纪 80 年代，但直到 20 世纪 20 年代，当装配线重新配置以有效使用电动机时，其生产率才开始提高。同样，数百万人在 20 世纪 80 年代初购买了个人电脑，但新设备带来的生产率提高直到 20 世纪 90 年代末才出现，当时办公室工作围绕电脑重新配置。在煤电、电动机和电脑方面，通用技术在短期内表现平平，但在长期内却令人眼花缭乱。

The same pattern can be seen with other general-purpose technologies. The electric motor was invented in the 1880s, but its productivity gains only came in the 1920s, when assembly lines were reconfigured to use them effectively. Similarly, millions of us bought personal computers in the early 1980s, but the productivity gains from the new devices didn’t come until the late 1990s, when office work was reconfigured around computers. When it comes to coal power, electric motors and computers, general-purpose technologies underwhelm in the short run and dazzle in the long run.

制度对工业革命至关重要。资本市场让投资者筹集资金。保险市场让他们规避风险。在英国，货币相对稳定，法院相对独立。英国君主的权力受到限制，其议员普遍对工业和创业持积极态度。这为冒险和长期投资创造了肥沃的环境。⁸

Institutions were vital to the industrial revolution. Capital markets allowed investors to raise funds. Insurance markets allowed them to hedge risk. In Britain, the currency was relatively stable and law courts were relatively independent. The power of the British monarchy was constrained, and its parliamentarians were generally well disposed towards industry and entrepreneurship. This created a fertile environment for risk-taking and long-term investment.⁸

现代经济学与工业革命经历了同样的考验。1776 年 3 月 8 日，詹姆斯·瓦特的第一台盈利的双缸蒸汽机进入市场。⁹ 第二天，另一位苏格兰人亚当·斯密出版了《国富论》，这是一本基础经济学教材。《国富论》出自一位惊人的原创思想家之手。斯密十四岁进入格拉斯哥大学，十七岁开始在牛津大学贝利奥尔学院攻读研究生。斯密不墨守成规的思想可能受到他在牛津大学的经历的影响。正如一位传记作者所写，他的学院是“詹姆士党、托利党、派系林立、花费昂贵且仇视苏格兰；而亚当·斯密是长老会、辉格党、善于交际、穷困潦倒且是苏格兰人”。¹⁰史密斯热情而又古怪。据说，他曾穿着睡衣走出家门，思考经济学问题，直到到达 19 公里（12 英里）外的下一个城镇时才意识到自己的错误。还有一次，他在兴致勃勃地讨论自由贸易时，似乎掉进了晒黑坑。¹¹

Modern economics emerged from the same crucible as the industrial revolution. On 8 March 1776, James Watt’s first profitable dual-cylinder steam engine entered the market.⁹ The next day another Scotsman, Adam Smith, published The Wealth of Nations, a foundational economics text. The Wealth of Nations was the product of a startlingly original mind. Smith went to the University of Glasgow at age fourteen, then began his postgraduate work at Oxford’s Balliol College, starting at age seventeen. Smith’s nonconformist thinking may have been shaped by his Oxford experience. As one biographer wrote, his college was ‘Jacobite, Tory, factional, costly and Scotophobic; and Adam Smith was Presbyterian, Whiggish, sociable, impecunious and a Scot’.¹⁰ Smith was passionate and eccentric. He is said to have once walked out of his house in his dressing gown, thinking about economics, and only realised his error when he reached the next town, 19 kilometres (12 miles) away. On another occasion, he apparently fell into a tanning pit while animatedly discussing free trade.¹¹

《国富论》开篇描述了一家别针工厂。斯密认为，如果工人单独工作，每天能生产出一枚别针就算幸运了。但一个由十人组成的团队，专门从事别针制作的不同部分，每人每天可以生产 4,800 枚别针。他还展示了人们表面上的自利在市场体系中如何对社会有益，他指出，“我们期望的晚餐不是来自屠夫、酿酒师或面包师的仁慈，而是来自他们对自身利益的关注。”市场发挥着强大的协调作用。这就是为什么在计划经济中比在资本主义经济中更容易看到肉类、啤酒和面包短缺的原因。

The Wealth of Nations begins with a description of a pin factory. Working alone, Smith argued, a worker would be lucky to make one pin a day. But a team of ten people, specialising in different parts of pin-making, could produce 4,800 pins per person per day. He also showed how people’s apparent self-interest can be socially beneficial in a market system, noting that, ‘It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker, that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest.’ Markets play a powerful coordinating role. That’s why you’re more likely to see shortages of meat, beer and bread in a command economy than a capitalist economy.

史密斯并不认为市场是完美的。与他之后的一些经济学家不同，他担心关于垄断、企业对政治的过度影响以及公司之间的勾结。他写道：“同行很少聚在一起，但谈话最终却演变成对公众的阴谋，或某种抬高价格的诡计。”当时，几乎没有什么可以阻止公司勾结公众利益，利用其市场力量将价格提高到远高于生产成本的水平，以及与政府合作通过法律来阻止新进入者。

Smith didn’t think that markets were perfect. Unlike some of the economists who would follow him, he was worried about monopolies, the excessive influence of business on politics, and collusion between companies. ‘People of the same trade seldom meet together,’ he wrote ‘but the conversation ends in a conspiracy against the public, or in some contrivance to raise prices.’ At the time, there was little to prevent companies colluding against the public interest, exploiting their market power to raise prices well above the cost of production, and co-opting government into passing laws that deterred new entrants.

工业革命刚刚开始，大西洋两岸就发生了政治革命。美国《独立宣言》（1776 年）和法国大革命（始于 1789 年）的起源都源于个人自由原则。正如市场将个人偏好汇总为价格和数量一样，民主选举也将个人偏好汇总起来以选择政府。两个多世纪以来，证据显而易见：市场经济体的生活水平高于受管制经济体。同样，民主国家往往更富裕，在医疗和教育方面的支出也更多。历史上从未有两个完全民主的国家发生过战争。¹²

Just as the industrial revolution was beginning, political revolutions were occurring on both sides of the Atlantic. The American Declaration of Independence (1776) and the French Revolution (beginning in 1789) had their origins in the principle of individual liberty. Just as markets aggregate individual preferences into prices and quantities, democratic elections aggregate individual preferences to choose governments. More than two centuries on, the evidence is clear: living standards are higher in market economies than controlled economies. Likewise, democracies tend to be richer, and spend more on health and education. Never in history have two fully democratic countries gone to war.¹²

自由市场和民主并不总是相辅相成的，但它们之间有一定的协同作用。封建制度的崩溃让人们意识到，他们可以选择自己的职业。随着经济独立性的增强，人们自然也希望在选择自己的政府方面拥有发言权。

Free markets and democracy don’t always go together, but there’s a certain synergy between them. The collapse of feudalism showed people that they could choose their own careers. As they gained more economic independence, it was natural that people also wanted a say in choosing their own governments.

但那也是战乱时期。从 1792 年到 1815 年的二十年间，法国发动了一系列冲突——这场战争被称为革命战争和拿破仑战争，对抗的是一连串的欧洲敌人。到 1815 年拿破仑最终失败时，数百万人丧生。如此昂贵的冲突也产生了宏观经济后果。像此后的许多政府一样，18 世纪 90 年代的英国政府决定通过印制更多钞票来支付军备费用。自 1717 年以来，英国一直实行金本位制，允许钞票持有者将其兑换成黄金。在大幅增加货币供应量后，英国政府暂时中止了钞票持有者将其兑换成黄金的权利，并在三年内将物价水平提高了 59%。一幅贬义的漫画让批评家们称英格兰银行为“老太太”，这个名字一直沿用至今。¹³金本位制在大萧条时期基本被废除，在 1944 年布雷顿森林协定中部分恢复，并在 20 世纪 70 年代初永久废除。

Yet these were also war-ravaged times. For two decades, from 1792 to 1815, the French waged a series of conflicts – known as the Revolutionary and Napoleonic Wars – against a rolling series of European adversaries. By the time of Napoleon’s final defeat in 1815, millions of men had been killed. Such expensive conflicts also had macroeconomic consequences. Like many governments since, the British government in the 1790s decided to pay for its armaments by printing more banknotes. Since 1717, Britain had operated under a gold standard, which allowed holders of banknotes to exchange them for gold. Having massively increased the money supply, the British government temporarily suspended the right of banknote holders to exchange them for gold and increased the price level by 59 per cent over three years. A disparaging cartoon led critics to call the Bank of England ‘the Old Lady’, a name that persists today.¹³ The gold standard would be largely abandoned during the Great Depression, partially reinstated in the 1944 Bretton Woods Agreement, and permanently dumped in the early 1970s.

詹姆斯·吉尔雷的漫画讽刺了政府的财政政策，导致人们将英格兰银行称为“老太太”。

James Gillray’s cartoon satirising the government’s financial policy led people to call the Bank of England ‘the Old Lady’.

Heritage Image Partnership Ltd/Alamy Stock Photo。

Heritage Image Partnership Ltd / Alamy Stock Photo.

当时的经济思想根植于哲学。哲学家杰里米·边沁在 1776 年写道：“最大多数人的最大幸福才是衡量是非的标准。”边沁被普遍视为现代功利主义的创始人——该理念认为，如果我们可以选择，我们应该选择为最大多数人带来最大利益的结果。

Economic thinking of this time had its roots in philosophy. ‘It is the greatest happiness of the greatest number’, wrote philosopher Jeremy Bentham in 1776, ‘that is the measure of right and wrong’. Bentham is generally regarded as the founder of modern utilitarianism – the notion that if we have a choice, we should prefer the outcome that produces the greatest good for the greatest number of people.

功利主义有时似乎很明显。如果一艘船正在下沉，而你可以安全地将两倍多的人装在救生艇上，那么结果就是两倍好。但功利主义也可能得出令人不安的结论。当一列火车向五个人驶来时，你会按下开关，让它转到另一条轨道上，而这条轨道会杀死一个人吗？如果你在一家医疗中心，有五个人即将死去，因为他们需要另一个器官，你会从下一个走进门的健康人身上摘取必要的身体器官吗？

Utilitarianism can seem obvious at times. If a ship is sinking, and you can safely fit twice as many people on the lifeboats, then the outcome is twice as good. But utilitarianism can also produce uncomfortable conclusions. With a train bearing down upon five people, would you flick a switch to send it on a track where it would kill one person instead? If you were in a medical centre, with five people about to die because they needed a different organ, would you harvest the necessary body parts from the next healthy person to walk in the door?

尽管功利主义有时令人不安，但它是当今经济学家使用的主要思维框架。英国经济学家威廉·斯坦利·杰文斯在边沁工作的基础上，提出了一种越来越数学化的方法，解释了边际效用递减的概念。任何在炎热天气里喝第一杯水比喝第二杯水更开心的人，都经历过边际效用递减。这个简单的原则有着令人惊讶的广泛含义。它解释了为什么大多数人喜欢多样化的饮食，喜欢去不同的地方旅行。在人群中，边际效用递减可以用来证明累进税和社会福利的合理性。如果一美元给奋斗者带来的幸福感比给亿万富翁带来的幸福感多，那么重新分配可以提高整体效用。奋斗者可能会用这笔钱去看牙医，而亿万富翁可能会选择在他们的私人飞机上选择稍微好一点的内饰。

Despite its occasionally discomforting implications, utilitarianism is the main framework of thinking that economists use today. Building on the work of Bentham, English economist William Stanley Jevons brought an increasingly mathematical approach, explaining the notion of diminishing marginal utility. Anyone who’s enjoyed the first glass of water on a hot day more than the second glass has experienced diminishing marginal utility. This simple principle has surprisingly wide implications. It explains why most people prefer a varied diet and enjoy travelling to different places. Across people, diminishing marginal utility can be used to make the case for progressive taxes and social welfare. If a dollar brings more happiness to a battler than a billionaire, then redistribution can improve overall utility. The battler might use the money to visit a dentist, while the billionaire might choose slightly better upholstery on their private jet.

英国哲学家约翰·斯图尔特·密尔提出了“经济人”的概念：人们以追求最大化福祉为目标。¹⁴密尔还帮助引入了机会成本的概念——你放弃的下一个最好的东西的价值。例如，上夜班的机会成本高于上白班。上夜班意味着错过正常的睡眠和与朋友和家人交往的时间。同样，请假攻读全日制工商管理硕士学位也要付出收入损失的机会成本。机会成本也可以成为一种有用的决策方式。例如，如果你对一件昂贵的购买犹豫不决，一个方便的经验法则是将它与你可能花费这笔钱的下一个最佳方式进行比较。也许购买那套时髦衣服的机会成本是不能去听你最喜欢的乐队的演唱会。

English philosopher John Stuart Mill shaped the notion of Homo economicus: modelling people as seeking to maximise wellbeing.¹⁴ Mill also helped introduce the notion of opportunity cost – the value of the next best thing that you give up. For example, working an overnight shift has a higher opportunity cost than working a day shift. Overnights mean missing out on a regular night’s sleep and time socialising with friends and family. Likewise, taking time off work to study a full-time Master of Business Administration comes at the opportunity cost of lost earnings. Opportunity cost can also be a helpful way of making decisions. For example, if you’re undecided about an expensive purchase, a handy rule of thumb is to compare it with the next best way you might spend that amount of money. Perhaps the opportunity cost of buying that stylish outfit is not seeing your favourite band in concert.

当时的智力发展受到当时发明的影响。1835 年，德国化学家 Justus von Liebig 通过在玻璃上镀上一层薄薄的银，发明了现代镜子。历史上第一次，人们可以准确地看到自己的样子。正如历史学家 Steven Johnson 所指出的那样，“在镜子出现之前，普通人在一生中，他们从未见过自己真正准确的面容，而只是在水池或抛光的金属中看到零碎而扭曲的目光。”¹⁵镜子让艺术家能够画出自画像。他们创造了一个更加以自我为中心的世界，这有助于推动现代资本主义和市场体系的发展。反过来，这又带来了镜子的销量增长。

Intellectual developments of the time were shaped by the inventions of the age. In 1835, German chemist Justus von Liebig invented the modern mirror, by depositing a thin layer of silver onto glass. For the first time in history, people could accurately see what they looked like. As historian Steven Johnson notes, ‘Before mirrors came along, the average person went through life without ever seeing a truly accurate representation of his or her face, just fragmentary, distorted glances in pools of water or polished metals.’¹⁵ Mirrors enabled artists to paint self-portraits. They created a more self-centred world, which helped fuel modern capitalism and the market system. In turn, this led to more sales of mirrors.

时钟也重塑了社会。随着钟摆的发明，时钟变得比日晷更精确，家用时钟开始普及。随着游丝的发明，手表变得更加精确。随着计时设备的精度提高，发明家们增加了分针（以前不够精确，不值得费心）。这使得工厂可以合理地安排轮班时间表，确保工人准时上班。它方便了依赖时间表的火车旅行。精确的计时也有利于海上旅行，因为海洋天文钟可以确定船只的经度。高质量的时钟加速了从家庭生产到大规模生产的转变，从家庭教育到公立学校的转变，以及从前工业时代不规律的节奏到工业时代的纪律的转变。¹⁶

Clocks also reshaped society. With the invention of the pendulum, clocks became more accurate than sundials, and household clocks began to proliferate. Watches became considerably more accurate with the invention of the balance spring. Inventors added a minute hand (which previously wasn’t sufficiently accurate to bother with) as the precision of their timekeeping devices improved. This allowed factories to set shift schedules with a reasonable expectation that workers would show up on time. It facilitated train travel, which relied on timetables. Accurate timekeeping was also a boon to sea travel, since ocean chronometers made it possible to determine a ship’s longitude. Quality clocks accelerated the transition from cottage production to mass production, from home schooling to public schooling, and from the irregular rhythms of the pre-industrial era to the discipline of the industrial age.¹⁶

并非所有人都对工业革命背后的新发明感到兴奋。1811 年，一群愤愤不平的纺织工人秘密会面，以“内德·卢德”的笔名写信给工厂主，威胁说如果继续使用机械针织机，他们就会砸毁这些机器。数千人加入了他们的行列。传说内德·卢德和罗宾汉一样住在舍伍德森林。卢德分子甚至得到了诗人拜伦勋爵的支持，拜伦勋爵在第一次向上议院发表演讲时就指出卢德分子是“诚实勤劳的”，他们的暴力行为是“最无与伦比的痛苦”的产物。他的观点属于少数派。英国政府通过法律，将破坏机器定为死罪，并动员了大量士兵对付他们，以至于一度与卢德分子作战的军队比与拿破仑作战的军队还多。数百名卢德分子因犯罪被流放到澳大利亚。

Not everyone was excited by the new inventions that underpinned the industrial revolution. In 1811, a group of aggrieved textile workers met in secret and wrote to factory owners under the pen name ‘Ned Ludd’, threatening to smash mechanical knitting machines if they continued to be used. Thousands joined their cause. Legend had it that Ned Ludd lived in Sherwood Forest, like Robin Hood. The Luddites even received support from poet Lord Byron, who used his first speech to the House of Lords to argue that the Luddites were ‘honest and industrious’, and that their violence was a product of ‘the most unparalleled distress’. His was a minority view. The British government passed laws making machine-breaking a capital offence, and mobilised so many soldiers against them that at one point there were more troops fighting the Luddites than battling Napoleon. Hundreds of Luddites were transported to Australia for their crimes.

这幅版画描绘了卢德派运动的虚构领袖内德·卢德 (Ned Ludd)。

An engraving depicting Ned Ludd, the fictional figurehead for the Luddite movement.

工人阶级运动图书馆目录。图片来自 Wikimedia Commons。

Working Class Movement Library catalogue. Image via Wikimedia Commons.

虽然这一时期手工织布工人的实际工资有所下降，但卢德分子声称技术变革将导致大规模失业是错误的。¹⁷十年来从 1811 年到 1821 年，英国经济中的就业岗位数量增加了 10% 以上。¹⁸

While the real wages of handloom weavers fell during this period, the Luddites were wrong to claim that technological changes would cause mass unemployment.¹⁷ In the decade from 1811 to 1821, the number of jobs in the British economy increased by more than 10 per cent.¹⁸

英国的教区福利制度假定发放福利的人与受助人有私人关系，但随着人口增长和流动性增加，这种情况变得越来越难以实现。这导致了非人性化的济贫院的出现，这种制度假定穷人天生懒惰，因此只能通过辛勤工作才能获得食物。英国于 1834 年颁布的新《济贫法》利用济贫院为有需要的人提供食物和住房。

Britain’s parish-based welfare system assumed that those distributing welfare knew the recipients personally, which became increasingly difficult as the population grew and mobility increased. This led to the creation of impersonal workhouses, a system that assumed the poor were inherently lazy, and therefore should only be given sustenance in exchange for hard work. Britain’s new Poor Law, enacted in 1834, used workhouses to provide food and housing to those in need.

威斯敏斯特联合济贫院的妇女。

Women at the Westminster Union workhouse.

《纪事报》/Alamy 图片库。

Chronicle / Alamy Stock Photo.

但济贫院并不想养活所有人，所以他们增加了一些让居民感到特别不愉快的设施，比如像监狱一样的制服，以及男女分开。考虑到英国的精英阶层是“地主阶级”，他们靠继承房地产赚钱，因此穷人似乎比富人更努力地工作。乔治·艾略特、托马斯·哈代和查尔斯·狄更斯等十九世纪小说家都曾记录过济贫院制度的残酷性，他们也都意识到了这种虚伪。在爱尔兰，当 19 世纪 40 年代土豆歉收时，该国的济贫法被证明是完全不合适的。大约有 100 万人死亡，同样数量的人逃离了该国。

But workhouses did not want to feed everyone, so they added features that made things especially unpleasant for residents, such as prison-like uniforms, and the separation of men and women. Given that Britain’s elite were the ‘landed gentry’, who made their money from inherited real estate, it seems likely that the poor worked a good deal harder than the rich. The hypocrisy was not lost on nineteenth-century novelists such as George Eliot, Thomas Hardy and Charles Dickens, who chronicled the brutality of the workhouse system. In Ireland, the country’s poor law proved utterly inadequate when the potato crop failed in the 1840s. Around one million people died, and a similar number fled the country.

工业家们被迫与新产品竞争，他们经常向政府求助。法国经济学家弗雷德里克·巴斯夏嘲笑这些说法，他写了一篇讽刺性的请愿书，认为蜡烛制造商不可能与“竞争对手的毁灭性竞争竞争，而这些竞争对手显然在比我们更好的条件下生产光”。为了与这个对手——太阳——竞争，请愿书要求制定一项法律，要求随时拉上窗帘。它认为，这样做将为农民、捕鲸者和烛台制造商创造就业机会。

Forced to compete against new products, industrialists often turned to governments for help. These claims were mocked by French economist Frédéric Bastiat, who wrote a satirical petition arguing that candlestick makers could not possibly compete against ‘the ruinous competition of a rival who apparently works under conditions so far superior to our own for the production of light’. In order to compete against this rival – the sun – the petition asked for a law requiring that curtains be closed at all times. Doing so, it argued, would create jobs for farmers, whalers and candelabra manufacturers.

巴斯夏在讽刺性的文章中提出了一个关键的经济观点：阻碍新技术的成本往往是看不见的。如果人们使用更多的蜡烛，他们将不得不削减其他领域的支出。在另一份伪请愿书中，巴斯夏恳求政府禁止所有人使用右手，理由是这将大大增加对工人的需求。这有时被称为“劳动总量”谬论——认为要做的工作量是固定的，可以简单地在人群中重新分配。事实上，由于工人也是消费者，降低员工生产率的变化可能会降低他们的收入，这将减少他们的支出，进而对经济产生负面影响。

Writing tongue-in-cheek, Bastiat was making a key economic point: the costs of blocking new technologies are often unseen. If people use more candles, they will have to cut back their spending in other areas. In another faux petition, Bastiat implored the government to ban everyone from using their right hand, on the basis that this would vastly increase the demand for workers. This is sometimes known as the ‘lump of labour’ fallacy – the idea that there is a fixed amount of work to be done, which can be simply reallocated across the population. In fact, because workers are also consumers, changes that make employees less productive are likely to reduce their earnings, which will shrink their spending, which will in turn have a negative impact on the economy.

巴斯夏被誉为“有史以来最杰出的经济记者”。¹⁹巴斯夏的公共事业生涯仅持续了六年，随后因肺结核而早逝，因此他对经济学的影响就显得更加引人注目。尽管经济学原理主要由英国和北美思想家塑造，但法国思想家在 18 世纪和 19 世纪尤其具有影响力。“企业家”和“自由放任”（顺其自然）等术语反映了这一时期法国的影响。

Bastiat has been dubbed ‘the most brilliant economic journalist who ever lived’.¹⁹ His impact on economics is all the more remarkable given that Bastiat’s public career lasted just six years, before his life was cut short by tuberculosis. Although the principles of economics were mostly shaped by British and North American thinkers, French thinkers were especially influential in the 1700s and 1800s. The terms ‘entrepreneur’ and ‘laissez faire’ (let it be) reflect this period of French influence.

工业革命带来的技术变革与贸易的增长同步。到了 19 世纪，贸易改变了世界各地人们的生活。棉制品和羊毛制品大量涌入中国，火柴、针线、雨伞和窗玻璃也随之涌入中国。²⁰普通欧洲人喝茶、吃巧克力并用银币进行交易。

The technological changes of the industrial revolution were paralleled by the growth of trade. By the 1800s, trade had transformed the lives of people around the world. Cotton and woollen products flooded into China, along with matches, needles, umbrellas and window glass.²⁰ The average European drank tea, consumed chocolate and traded with silver coins.

并非所有人都喜欢贸易，原因很简单，廉价的进口产品会导致国内生产商破产。认识到这一点，生产商可能会游说制定法律来阻止进口。少数损失惨重的人往往比多数获利微薄的人更有政治影响力。即使多数人的总收益超过少数人的损失，情况也是如此。这种政治动态导致英国在 1815 年对谷物进口征收关税以保护当地农民，结果英国小麦的价格是荷兰小麦的两倍。²¹谷物法之争成为经济学发展的关键点。大卫·李嘉图是早期反对关税的倡导者之一。

Not everyone liked trade, for the simple reason that a cheaper import can drive domestic producers out of business. Recognising this, producers may lobby for laws to block imports. A few who will lose a lot tend to be more politically influential than many who will gain a little. This remains true even if the total gains of the many outweigh the losses of the few. This political dynamic led Britain in 1815 to impose a tariff on grain imports to protect local farmers, with the result that British wheat cost twice as much as Dutch wheat.²¹ The fight over the Corn Laws would prove to be a pivotal point in the development of economics. One of the early campaigners against the tariffs was David Ricardo.

里卡多年轻时就通过股票经纪人赚了一大笔钱。随后，他投身政治和思想生活，在议会中买下了一个席位。他对经济学产生了浓厚的兴趣，在度假期间发现了亚当·斯密的作品，并决定将自己的议会生涯奉献给废除谷物法，里卡多认为这将使英国成为“世界上最幸福的国家”。²²李嘉图的著作比亚当·斯密的著作更难理解，一位国会议员将李嘉图描述为一个“辩论起来像是从外星球掉下来的人”。²³但他引入了比较优势的理念（我们之前已经看到过）——这一原则对于解释为什么即使是生产率最低的国家也能从贸易中受益至关重要。虽然李嘉图在《谷物法》废除之前就去世了，但他在让英国走上自由贸易之路方面发挥了至关重要的作用。

At a young age, Ricardo made a large fortune as a stockbroker. He then turned to politics and intellectual life, buying a seat in parliament. He became fascinated by economics, discovering Adam Smith’s work while on holiday, and deciding to devote his parliamentary career to abolishing the Corn Laws, which Ricardo believed would make Britain ‘the happiest country in the world’.²² Ricardo’s writings are harder to follow than Smith’s, with a fellow member of parliament describing Ricardo as one who ‘argued as if he had dropped from another planet’.²³ Yet he introduced the idea of comparative advantage (which we saw earlier) – a principle that is fundamental to explaining why even the most unproductive nation can benefit from trade. Although Ricardo died before the Corn Laws were scrapped, he played a vital role in putting Britain on the path towards free trade.

5 贸易、旅游和技术腾飞

Trade, Travel and Technology Take Off

19 世纪 40 年代，一系列歉收导致英国粮食价格上涨。这十年被称为“饥饿的四十年代”。城市工业家的势力日益强大，给农村贵族带来了更多压力。有一段时间，经济学占据了英国政治辩论的中心位置。1843 年，《经济学人》在反谷物法联盟的帮助下成立。用该杂志早期编辑沃尔特·白芝浩的话来说，“也许，在世界历史上，从来没有过另一个时代，激动的男女群众全神贯注于一个谈论政治经济学的人的话。”¹有关自由贸易的争论震动了整个国家，人们用诗歌、针线活、半身像和蛋糕来纪念这场争论。² 1846 年，《谷物法》被废除。根据一项分析，只有英国最富有的 10% 的人境况变差，最贫穷的 90% 的人受益。自由贸易的力量赢得了这场斗争。

IN THE 1840S, A SERIES OF FAILED HARVESTS pushed up British grain prices. The decade came to be known as the ‘hungry forties’. The growing power of urban industrialists added to the pressure on rural aristocrats. For a while, economics held centre stage in English political debate. In 1843, The Economist was founded with the help of the Anti-Corn Law League. In the words of Walter Bagehot, an early editor of the magazine, ‘There has never, perhaps, been another time in the history of the world when excited masses of men and women hung on the words of one talking political economy.’¹ The debate over free trade roiled the nation, and was commemorated in poems, needlework, busts and cakes.² In 1846, the Corn Laws were abolished. According to one analysis, only the top 10 per cent of Britons were left worse off, with the bottom 90 per cent benefiting. The forces of free trade had won the battle.

在其他地方，贸易是一场真正的战争。为了回应中国政府拒绝英国商人进口鸦片，英国军舰为毒贩发动袭击。在广州、香港、杭州、宁波和镇江一带的一系列战斗中，有3000多人丧生。有学者称英国的袭击是“毒品帝国主义”的典型例子。³这场冲突导致了 1842 年《南京条约》的签订，根据该条约，中国同意开放另外五个通商口岸，并将香港领土移交给英国。四十年间，中国每年的鸦片进口量超过 6,000 吨。⁴

Elsewhere, trade was a literal battle. In response to the Chinese government’s refusal to allow British traders to import opium, British warships attacked on behalf of the drug dealers. In a series of battles around Guangzhou, Hong Kong, Hangzhou, Ningbo and Zhenjiang, more than 3,000 people were killed. One scholar calls Britain’s attacks a case of ‘narco-imperialism’.³ The conflict led to the 1842 Treaty of Nanking, under which China agreed to open five additional ports to trade and to hand over the territory of Hong Kong to the British. Within four decades, opium imports to China topped 6,000 tonnes a year.⁴

1842 年 7 月镇江之战的描绘。

A depiction of the Battle of Chinkiang (now Zhenjiang) in July 1842.

理查德·西姆金 (Richard Simkin) 的水彩画，现藏于布朗大学安妮·S·布朗军事收藏馆。图片来自 Wikimedia Commons。

Watercolour by Richard Simkin held in the Anne S.K. Brown Military Collection, Brown University. Image via Wikimedia Commons.

受英国“贸易或死亡”政策成功的鼓舞，美国于 1853 年向日本派遣了四艘战舰，要求该国取消贸易限制。这次入侵帮助结束了日本的幕府时代，即由军事独裁者统治该国长达七百年的时期。最后一位幕府将军德川幕府限制贸易，限制外交关系并禁止几乎所有进出日本的旅行。1867 年明治维新将权力集中在日本天皇手中，开始向世界开放日本。明治政府也非常重视教育，这反过来又使该国能够更快地采用技术。

Buoyed by the success of Britain’s ‘trade or die’ policies, the United States sent four warships to Japan in 1853, demanding the country end restrictions on trade. The invasion helped end Japan’s shogun era, a seven-century period in which the country was led by military dictators. The last shoguns, the Tokugawa shogunate, curtailed trade, limited diplomatic ties and banned virtually all travel into or out of Japan. The 1867 Meiji restoration, which consolidated power in the hands of the emperor of Japan, began opening Japan to the world. The Meiji government also had a strong emphasis on education, which in turn allowed the country to adopt technology more rapidly.

在“富国强军”的口号下，日本的现代化者废除了种姓制度，允许人们从事任何工作。⁵武士（当时约有 200 万）被国家军队和全民义务兵役所取代。日本政府优先投资铁路和电报系统，并采用西方技术，以适应日本劳动力比欧洲和北美更便宜的事实。与西方列强签订的条约将日本的关税上限设定为 5%，因此该国无法阻止外国竞争。相反，国家主导的经济发展对该国快速提高生产力至关重要。

Under the slogan ‘rich country, strong army’, Japan’s modernisers abolished the caste system and allowed people to take any job.⁵ Samurai warriors – then numbering nearly two million – were replaced by a national army and compulsory military service for all men. Japan’s government prioritised investments in railway and telegraph systems, and adapted Western technologies to account for the fact that labour was cheaper in Japan than it was in Europe and North America. A treaty with Western powers had capped Japanese tariffs at 5 per cent, so the country could not keep out foreign competition. Instead, state-led economic development became vital to the country’s rapid productivity improvements.

美国博学者本杰明·富兰克林曾经写道，“没有哪个国家会因为贸易而毁灭”。然而，就在鼓励其他国家开放的同时，欧洲和北美却对进口产品征收关税。这在一定程度上是出于收入需要。在征收广泛的所得税之前，关税是许多国家的主要收入来源。拿破仑战争和美国内战等战争的资金来源往往是提高关税。

American polymath Benjamin Franklin once wrote that ‘no nation was ever ruined by trade’. Yet even as they were encouraging other countries to open up, Europe and North America were imposing tariffs on imports. This was partly due to the need for revenue. Before broad-based income taxes, tariffs were a major source of revenue for many nations. Wars such as the Napoleonic Wars and the US Civil War were often funded by an increase in tariffs.

关税易于管理，对政府预算有利，但对整体经济不利。关税就像一个国家在海上放置石头阻碍航运在其自己的港口。无论贸易伙伴做什么，移开礁石（取消关税）都会使一个国家受益。但在实践中，各国往往更看重出口而不是进口。在这种“重商主义”方法下，各国只有在其贸易伙伴也同意削减关税的情况下才会同意削减关税。这种类型的早期协议出现在 1860 年，当时英国同意取消几乎所有关税，以换取法国降低关税。该协议包括“最惠国”条款，这意味着贸易伙伴也能获得比任何其他国家都更好的待遇。在接下来的十年左右，欧洲各地达成了贸易协定，其最惠国条款帮助在整个大陆传播自由贸易。⁶贸易具有“拆分”生产和消费的效果。⁷贸易意味着商品不再需要在同一个国家生产和销售。

Tariffs were easy to administer and good for the government budget, but bad for the economy as a whole. Tariffs have been likened to a country impeding shipping by putting rocks in its own harbours. Removing the rocks (abolishing tariffs) benefits a country regardless of what its trading partners do. But in practice, countries have often put more political weight on exports than imports. Under this ‘mercantilist’ approach, nations agree to cut tariffs only if their trading partner does the same. An early deal of this type came in 1860, when Britain agreed to remove almost all tariffs in exchange for France reducing its tariffs. The agreement included a ‘most favoured nation’ clause, which means that the trading partner also gets the best deal offered to any other nation. Over the next decade or so, trade agreements were struck across Europe, and their most favoured nation clauses helped spread free trade across the continent.⁶ Trade had the effect of ‘unbundling’ production and consumption.⁷ Trade means that things no longer need to be made and sold in the same country.

这一时期的贸易本应帮助最贫穷的国家发展。毕竟，帝国通常以自由贸易区的形式运作。1869 年苏伊士运河的开通几乎将伦敦到阿拉伯海的航程缩短了一半。但帝国主义列强严格限制从其殖民地出口的商品范围，并为中心国家而非边缘国家管理贸易。在这一时期，西欧经济开始脱离世界其他地区。从 1820 年到 1900 年，欧洲的生活水平提高了一倍多，而亚洲和非洲的生活水平却没有提高。⁸

Trade in this period ought to have helped the poorest nations grow. After all, empires typically operated as free trade areas. The opening of the Suez Canal in 1869 almost halved the seagoing distance from London to the Arabian Sea. But imperial powers tightly constrained the range of goods exported from their colonies, and managed trade for the benefit of the centre over the periphery. During this era, the economies of Western Europe began to pull away from the rest of the world. From 1820 to 1900, living standards in Europe more than doubled, while living standards in Asia and Africa did not rise at all.⁸

公司理念对于推动工业革命至关重要。正如荷兰和英国东印度公司允许投资者分担多个航海探险的风险，工业公司也允许金融家在这个时代分担新企业的风险。公司自罗马时代就已存在，但它们在风险投资中发挥着重要作用，例如勘探矿藏、在新地区修建铁路或销售奇特产品。公司还鼓励专业化，因为它提供了一种载体，让富有的投资者可以支持身无分文的企业家的商业理念。1855 年，英国通过了《有限责任法》，规定如果公司倒闭，债权人不能通过向股东个人追讨债务。

The idea of the corporation was fundamental to advancing the industrial revolution. Just as the Dutch and British East India Companies allowed investors to pool risks across multiple seafaring expeditions, so too industrial corporations let financiers share the risk of new ventures in this era. Companies had existed since Roman times, but they proved vital in the case of risky ventures, such as exploring for mineral deposits, building railways into new regions, or selling an exotic product. Corporations also encouraged specialisation, by providing a vehicle through which a rich investor might back the business idea of a penniless entrepreneur. In 1855, the United Kingdom passed the Limited Liability Act, which provided that if a company collapsed, creditors could not recover their debts by pursuing the shareholders personally.

公司解决了如何让投资者将资金投入风险企业的问题：限制亏损，使所有者的损失不会超过投资。但公司也成为大型雇主，其议价能力远远超过其员工。解决这个问题的方法是成立工会，工人们组织起来要求更好的工资和工作条件。然而，在工业革命的最初几十年里，工会是非法的。1834 年，六名英国农业工人因成立工会而被流放到澳大利亚，他们后来被称为托尔普德尔烈士。在公众游行和 80 万支持者签名的请愿书之后，他们的判决被推翻。这是社区大力支持工人权利的标志。

Corporations solved the problem of how to get investors to put money into risky ventures: limit the downside so that owners cannot lose more than they invest. But corporations also became large employers, whose bargaining power massively exceeded that of their individual workers. The solution to this problem was the creation of the trade union, in which workers organised to demand better pay and conditions. However, during the early decades of the industrial revolution, unions were illegal. In 1834, six English agricultural workers, who came to be known as the Tolpuddle Martyrs, were transported to Australia as punishment for forming a union. After public marches and a petition signed by 800,000 supporters, their sentences were overturned. It was a sign of the strong community support for workers’ rights.

工业革命的成果花了很长时间才惠及英国工人。到 19 世纪 30 年代，一半的工业革命开始后的一个世纪里，实际工资几乎没有增长。其他指标也显示出类似的模式。19 世纪初英国人的预期寿命在 35 至 40 岁之间，仅略高于 16 世纪。⁹此外，由于缺乏卫生设施和拥挤的环境导致疾病传播，城市居民的预期寿命可能比农村居民少十年。当时的医学对治疗效果不大：用水蛭放血、服用汞和喝威士忌是常见的治疗方法。但在 19 世纪 40 年代，英国的工资开始上涨，其他发展指标也随之上升。从 1820 年到 1870 年，识字率从人口的一半增加到四分之三。¹⁰

The gains from the industrial revolution took a surprisingly long time to flow to British workers. By the 1830s, half a century after the start of the industrial revolution, real wages had hardly grown. Other markers showed a similar pattern. British life expectancy in the early 1800s was between thirty-five and forty, barely higher than it had been in the 1500s.⁹ Moreover, city-dwellers could expect to live a decade less than rural residents, as a lack of sanitation and cramped conditions contributed to the spread of disease. Medicine in this era did little to help: bloodletting with leeches, consuming mercury and taking shots of whisky were common treatments. But in the 1840s, British wages began to rise, along with other markers of development. From 1820 to 1870, the literacy rate increased from half to three-quarters of the population.¹⁰

工业革命带来了工业规模的战争。1861 年至 1865 年，美国内战肆虐全国。由于使用了大规模生产的武器、铁路、轮船和电报，内战的规模和屠杀都堪称工业化。超过 60 万战斗人员（五分之一的士兵）丧生。战争结束时，超过 300 万被奴役的人获得自由。

Alongside the industrial revolution came industrial-scale warfare. From 1861 to 1865, the US Civil War ravaged the country. With the use of mass-produced weapons, railroads, steamships and telegraphs, the Civil War was industrial in its scale, and in its carnage. More than 600,000 combatants – one in five soldiers – lost their lives. At the end of the war, more than three million enslaved people were freed.

对于经济学家来说，南北战争的一个显著特点是双方资源不平衡。人口更多、经济更强大并不能保证胜利（特别是如果一方愿意将更多的资源投入到战争中）。但金钱很重要。俗话说，上帝总是站在军队更强大的一方。

To economists, one of the striking features of the Civil War is the imbalance in resources between the two sides. A larger population and bigger economy do not guarantee victory (particularly if one side is willing to devote a greater share of its resources to the conflict). But money matters. As the saying goes, God is usually on the side with the bigger battalions.

战争开始时，北方人口为 2100 万，是南方人口 900 万的两倍多。南方经济以农业为主，北方生产了全国 90% 的制成品。至关重要的是，北方生产了全国 97% 的枪支。

At the outset of the war, the North had a population of 21 million, more than twice the South’s population of 9 million. The South was a primarily agricultural economy, with the North producing 90 per cent of the country’s manufactured goods. Critically, the North produced 97 per cent of the country’s firearms.

从经济角度来看，这场战争的显著特点是南方坚持了很久。北方糟糕的军事策略延长了战争，但最终两地之间的经济差距决定了战争的结果。在南北战争期间，南方通过通货膨胀筹集了 60% 的资金（而北方只有 13%）。¹¹到了战争结束时，南方印刷了如此多的钞票，以至于商品价格达到了战争开始时的 92 倍。

From an economic standpoint, the notable feature of the war is that the South held out as long as it did. Poor military tactics on the part of the North helped prolong the war, but ultimately the economic disparity between the two regions determined the outcome. During the course of the Civil War, the South funded 60 per cent of its costs through inflation (compared with 13 per cent for the north).¹¹ By the end of the war, the South was printing so much money that goods cost ninety-two times as much as they had done when the conflict began.

在那个时代，国家已经建立，但跨境旅行基本畅通无阻。很少有人持有护照，去另一个国家只需乘坐火车或轮船即可。1851 年，澳大利亚巴拉瑞特镇发现大量金矿，引发了大批移民涌入。在随后的二十年里，澳大利亚的定居人口增加了四倍，从 44 万增加到 170 万。一个世纪前，英国殖民者将澳大利亚视为一座露天监狱。到 19 世纪末，囚犯运输已经停止，移民从欧洲、亚洲和美洲涌入。许多人尝试淘金，但也有相当多的人从事其他行业，这些行业的工资通常比他们离开的国家高得多。

This was an era in which nations had been established, but travel across borders was essentially unimpeded. Few people held passports, and going to another country was simply a matter of boarding a train or ship. In 1851, massive gold discoveries in the Australian town of Ballarat caused an influx of migrants. Over the ensuing two decades, Australia’s settler population quadrupled, from 440,000 to 1.7 million. A century earlier, the British colonialists had seen Australia as little more than an open-air prison. By the late-1800s, transportation of convicts had ceased, and migrants flowed in from Europe, Asia and the Americas. Many tried their luck at gold prospecting, but a substantial number worked in other industries, where wages were typically much higher than in the countries they were leaving.

老大师与年轻天才

OLD MASTERS AND YOUNG GENIUSES

通过分析创意职业，经济学家戴维·加伦森（David Galenson）发现了一个有趣的模式。¹²那些在年轻时就做出杰出成就的人往往是概念主义者，他们被一个突破性的想法所驱动。相比之下，那些在晚年创作出杰作的人通常是实验主义者，他们的作品是不断尝试和犯错的产物。

Analysing creative careers, economist David Galenson has discovered an intriguing pattern.¹² Those who do their best work at a younger age tended to be conceptualists, driven by a single breakthrough idea. By contrast, those who produce their masterwork late in life are generally experimentalists, whose work is the gradual product of trial and error.

在艺术家中，拉斐尔、约翰内斯·维米尔、文森特·梵高和巴勃罗·毕加索都是概念主义者，他们在早年完成了最重要的作品。毕加索在 25 岁时创作了他的突破性立体主义杰作《亚维农的少女》。伦勃朗、米开朗基罗、提香和塞尚都是实验主义者，他们在晚年完成了最重要的作品。塞尚说他觉得自己一直在向完美迈进。

Among artists, Raphael, Johannes Vermeer, Vincent van Gogh and Pablo Picasso were conceptualists, who did their most important work early in their lives. Picasso painted his breakthrough cubist masterpiece Les Demoiselles d’Avignon at age twenty-five. Rembrandt, Michelangelo, Titian and Cézanne were experimentalists, who did their most important work late in life. Cézanne said he felt like he was always inching towards perfection.

诗人艾·卡明斯和西尔维娅·普拉斯从内心寻找灵感，在概念上形成诗歌，在二十几岁和三十几岁时创作出最好的作品。而玛丽安·摩尔和华莱士·史蒂文斯则从日常生活中观察到的真实经验中汲取灵感，在四十多岁及以后创作出主要作品。

The poets e.e. cummings and Sylvia Plath found their inspiration internally and formulated their poems conceptually, producing their best work in their twenties and thirties. Meanwhile, Marianne Moore and Wallace Stevens drew on real experiences observed in their daily lives, producing their major works in their forties and beyond.

1951年，63岁的美国诗人玛丽安·摩尔凭借《诗集》荣获普利策奖和国家图书奖。

American poet Marianne Moore won the Pulitzer Prize and the National Book Award for her Collected Poems in 1951, aged sixty-three.

摄影：Carl Van Vechten，1948 年 11 月 13 日，美国国会图书馆 Van Vechten 藏品。图片来自维基共享资源。

Photograph by Carl Van Vechten, 13 November 1948, Van Vechten Collection at Library of Congress. Image via Wikimedia Commons.

概念小说家包括詹姆斯·乔伊斯和赫尔曼·梅尔维尔，他们的最佳作品都是在年轻时创作的。老大师包括查尔斯·狄更斯和弗吉尼亚·伍尔夫，他们的实验试图反映他们周围的世界。电影导演奥森·威尔斯是一位概念性的年轻天才，26 岁时就创作了《公民凯恩》，而克林特·伊斯特伍德是一位实验性的老大师，他直到 60 多岁才成为一名重要的导演。

Conceptual novelists include James Joyce and Herman Melville, whose best work was created at a young age. Old masters include Charles Dickens and Virginia Woolf, whose experimentation sought to reflect the world around them. Movie director Orson Welles was a conceptual young genius, producing Citizen Kane at age twenty-six, while Clint Eastwood is an experimental old master, who only became an important director in his sixties.

概念主义者发现。实验主义者寻求。

Conceptualists find. Experimentalists seek.

澳大利亚工人比英国和美国工人挣得更多，部分原因是雇员稀缺。这让澳大利亚工人比北半球工人拥有更多权力。1855 年罢工后，悉尼石匠成为世界上第一批赢得八小时工作权利的工人之一。由于地广人稀，19 世纪 80 年代的澳大利亚工资是世界上最高的，澳大利亚劳工运动在政治中发挥了重要作用。在接下来的几十年里，澳大利亚将成为世界上第一批允许妇女投票和参选、设定全国最低工资并在周六举行选举（以最大限度地提高投票率）的国家之一。

Part of the reason that Australian workers earned more than their British and American counterparts was that employees were scarce. That gave Australian workers more power than northern hemisphere workers. After a strike in 1855, Sydney stonemasons were among the first workers in the world to win the right to an eight-hour day. With plenty of land and few people, Australian wages in the 1880s were the highest in the world, and the Australian labour movement came to play an influential role in politics. In the coming decades, Australia would be among the world’s first countries to allow women to vote and stand for office, set a national minimum wage and hold elections on a Saturday (to maximise voter turnout).

在其他方面，这个时代见证了福利国家的重大发展。19 世纪 80 年代，随着社会民主党在选举中胜出，德国保守党总理奥托·冯·俾斯麦向议会提交了一揽子改革方案，提供医疗保险、意外事故保险和老年残疾养老金。这些改革在当时是世界领先的，尽管以今天的标准来看并不起眼。俾斯麦医疗保险计划所依赖的“疾病基金”有三分之二由工人出资。养老金支付给年过 70 岁的人，而当时 30 岁的德国人平均只能活到 60 岁出头。^十三

Elsewhere, this era saw major developments in the welfare state. In the 1880s, with the social democrats gaining on him electorally, conservative German chancellor Otto von Bismarck introduced into parliament a package of reforms that provided health insurance, accident insurance and an old-age disability pension. The reforms were world-leading for the time, though modest by today’s standards. The ‘sickness funds’ that underpinned Bismarck’s health insurance programs were two-thirds funded by workers. Pensions were paid to those who passed the age of seventy, at a time when average thirty-year-old Germans could only expect to live to their early sixties.¹³

与此同时，医疗保健领域的一些关键创新来自法国。到 19 世纪 60 年代，法国已经建成了世界上最大的污水处理系统之一，其布局与街道相似。作家维克多·雨果将其描述为“美丽的下水道；纯粹的风格在那里盛行”。19 世纪中叶，各国开始在世界博览会上展示他们的新发明，在 1867 年的法国国际博览会上，游客可以参观下水道。巴黎的家庭很快就接入了新的排水系统，有助于降低传染病的流行率（我们可以称之为“排水增益”）。法国科学家路易斯·巴斯德的三个孩子都死于伤寒，他提出了细菌致病理论，并在提供更清洁的饮用水和隔离医院传染病患者的政策方面发挥了重要作用。工业革命开始时，传染病是城市居民死亡率高于乡下人的主要原因。有远见的政府让城市变得更安全，这反过来又刺激了城市化。

Meanwhile, some of the key innovations in health care came from France. By the 1860s, France had built one of the world’s largest sewerage systems – mirroring the street layout. Writer Victor Hugo described it as ‘a beautiful sewer; the pure style reigns there’. In the mid-1800s, nations had begun to show off their new innovations at world fairs, and at France’s 1867 International Exposition, visitors were offered tours of the sewer. Parisian homes were quickly connected to the new sewerage system, helping to reduce the prevalence of infectious diseases (we might call it ‘the drain gain’). French scientist Louis Pasteur, who had lost three children to typhoid, developed the germ theory of disease and was instrumental in policies to provide cleaner drinking water and isolate infectious patients in hospitals. At the start of the industrial revolution, infectious diseases were a major reason why city-dwellers had higher mortality rates than their country cousins. Far-sighted governments made cities safer, which in turn spurred urbanisation.

游客参观由欧仁·贝尔格兰德和奥斯曼男爵设计的巴黎最先进的下水道系统。

Tourists visit Paris’s state-of-the-art sewerage system designed by Eugène Belgrand and Baron Haussmann.

《纪事报》/Alamy 图片库。

Chronicle / Alamy Stock Photo.

法国产科医生斯特凡·塔尼尔 (Stéphane Tarnier) 发明了加湿床，用于喂养早产婴儿。1880 年，塔尼尔在参观巴黎动物园时看到了珍稀鸟类孵化器展览，意识到同样的原理可以应用于新生儿。三年内，他的发明使他所在医院体重不足的婴儿的存活率从 35% 提高到 62%。¹⁴在接下来的几十年里，更好的婴儿护理被证明是预期寿命提高的关键驱动因素。婴儿死亡率的改善使许多家庭免于埋葬孩子的痛苦。由于知道他们的孩子更有可能存活，妇女生育的婴儿更少。1893 年，法国政府为穷人制定了一项有限的免费医疗计划，反映了当时法国对医疗改革的关注，该计划非常受欢迎，在接下来的十年里，该计划的扩展远远超出了计划设计者的预期。

French obstetrician Stéphane Tarnier developed the humidicrib to sustain infants born prematurely. Visiting the Paris Zoo in 1880, Tarnier saw an exhibit of incubators for exotic birds and realised the same principle could be applied to newborn babies. Within three years, his invention had boosted the survival rate of underweight babies in his hospital from 35 per cent to 62 per cent.¹⁴ Over the ensuing decades, better infant care would prove to be a key driver of rising life expectancy. Improvements in infant mortality saved many families the anguish of burying a child. And knowing their children were more likely to survive, women bore fewer babies. Reflecting the French focus on health reforms in this era, in 1893 the French government created a limited program of free health care for the destitute, which proved extremely popular, expanding in the following decade well beyond the expectations of those who designed the program.

经济增长是这些社会改革的基础，但也导致了经济权力的集中。在美国，约翰·洛克菲勒的标准石油公司通过收购或排挤，几乎淘汰了所有竞争对手。到 1880 年，该公司控制了 90% 的炼油业务。洛克菲勒和他的同事随后成立了标准石油托拉斯——一系列复杂的法律结构，旨在保护公司的运营免受审查。在这个盾牌的背后，该组织利用其垄断权力推高价格和利润。为了解决这些问题，国会于 1890 年通过了《谢尔曼反托拉斯法》。然而，直到接下来的十年，反垄断执法开始认真进行——部分归功于艾达·塔贝尔 (Ida Tarbell) 等调查记者的工作，他们揭露了标准石油公司的组织结构。

Economic growth underpinned these social reforms, but it also allowed the concentration of economic power. In the United States, John D. Rockefeller’s Standard Oil Company eliminated virtually all its competitors by buying them up or squeezing them out. By 1880, it controlled 90 per cent of the oil-refining business. Rockefeller and his associates then set up the Standard Oil Trust – a series of complex legal structures designed to shield the company’s operations from scrutiny. Behind this shield, the organisation used its monopoly power to drive up prices and profits. In an attempt to tackle these problems, Congress passed the Sherman Antitrust Act in 1890. Yet it was not until the following decade that antitrust enforcement began in earnest – thanks partly to the work of investigative journalists such as Ida Tarbell, who uncovered the structures of the Standard Oil Company.

并非每一次关注垄断的尝试都能如愿以偿。19 世纪末，女权主义作家 Lizzie Magie 对 Cornelius Vanderbilt、John D. Rockefeller 和 Andrew Carnegie 等“强盗大亨”的权力感到愤怒。阅读经济学家 Henry George 的思想后，Magie 了解到垄断可以让极端财富和极度贫困共存。随后，她开发了一款名为“地主游戏”的棋盘游戏，旨在对垄断力量进行互动式批判。Magie 的动机是向玩家展示土地掠夺如何让业主致富，让租户陷入贫困。然而，三十年后，当 Parker Brothers 制作了她的游戏的修改版，去掉了其激进的色彩，并以“大富翁”的名称向公众推销时，最大的垄断者成为了赢家。Magie 只得到了 500 美元的报酬，但她既没有因她的游戏而获得荣誉，也没有实现她想要的持久社会正义影响。

Not every attempt to put a spotlight on monopolies worked as intended. In the late-1800s, feminist writer Lizzie Magie was outraged by the power of ‘robber barons’ such as Cornelius Vanderbilt, John D. Rockefeller and Andrew Carnegie. Reading the ideas of economist Henry George introduced Magie to the way in which monopolies could allow extreme wealth and deep poverty to coexist. She subsequently developed a board game, dubbed ‘The Landlord’s Game’, designed to serve as an interactive critique of monopoly power. Magie’s motive was to show players how land grabbing enriched property owners and impoverished tenants. Yet when, three decades later, Parker Brothers produced a modified version of her game, stripped of its radical overtones and marketed to the public as ‘Monopoly’, the biggest monopolist became the winner. Magie was paid just US$500, but neither received the credit for her game nor achieved the lasting social justice impact she intended.

华尔街是原版大富翁游戏棋盘上最有价值的街道之一，该游戏的创作初衷是为了发出激进的警告。

Wall Street was one of the most valuable streets on the board of the original Monopoly game, which was created as a radical warning.

《地主游戏》由 Lizzie J. Magie（菲利普斯出版社）设计，1906 年由纽约经济游戏公司出版。图片：托马斯·福赛斯。

The Landlord’s Game, designed by Lizzie J. Magie (Phillips), published in 1906 by the Economic Game Company, New York. Image: Thomas Forsyth.

19 世纪末，世界上发展最快的城市中有一些位于美国。原因之一是美国的城市规划者更倾向于将街道布置成网格状，而许多古老的欧洲城市则遵循当地的地形，或采用放射状布局。放射状布局使城市更容易防守，但网格更具经济效益——最大限度地利用了街道正面，并使住宅更容易与下水道和交通线路连接。芝加哥是世界上网格化程度最高的城市。罗马是网格化程度最低的城市之一。¹⁵

As the 1800s drew to a close, some of the world’s fastest-growing cities were in the United States. One reason was that US city planners were more likely to lay out streets in a grid pattern, while many older European cities followed the local topography, or were laid out in a radial pattern. The radial layout made cities easier to defend, but grids are more economically efficient – maximising the use that can be made of street frontage, and making it easier to connect homes to sewerage and transport lines. Chicago is the world’s most gridded city. Rome is one of the least gridded.¹⁵

网格化城市往往会产生世界上第一批摩天大楼。到 19 世纪 90 年代，芝加哥、纽约和圣路易斯都出现了至少十层楼的建筑。摩天大楼的建造离不开两项技术。贝塞麦工艺使能够大规模生产能够支撑高耸结构重量的钢梁成为可能。乘客电梯使人们能够到达更高的楼层。虽然这些技术在全球范围内都可用，但监管也影响了它们的建造地点。更严格的消防安全和分区法律限制了许多城市的摩天大楼的发展二十世纪初，欧洲城市的发展与美国城市的发展相似，而美国城市则给予开发商更多的自由。从世界各地的天际线中仍可以看出这种差异。

Gridded cities tended to produce the world’s first skyscrapers. By the 1890s, buildings of at least ten storeys could be found in Chicago, New York and St Louis. Two technologies were essential to skyscrapers. The Bessemer process enabled the mass production of steel beams that could hold the weight of the soaring structure. And the passenger elevator allowed people to reach the higher floors. While the technologies were available globally, regulation also influenced where they were constructed. Stricter fire safety and zoning laws constrained the development of skyscrapers in many European cities during the early twentieth century, while US cities gave more freedom to developers. The differences can still be seen in the world’s skylines.

6 经济模型和现代工厂

Economic Models and the Modern Factory

二十世纪初，英国人阿尔弗雷德·马歇尔是世界上最具影响力的经济学家。他于 1890 年出版的教科书《经济学原理》借鉴了他的数学天赋（他在剑桥数学考试中获得了“第二名”的殊荣），重点研究了经济学如何改善社会福祉。马歇尔写道，供给和需求就像一把剪刀的刀片。在一个轴上标有价格，另一个轴上标有数量，表示供给的线通常向上倾斜，因为价格越高，愿意提供商品或服务的人就越多。表示需求的线往往向下倾斜，这是众所周知的边际效用递减概念：消费者拥有的东西越多，他们愿意为每增加一个单位支付的价格就越少。对于供应商来说，价格和数量同时增加。对于消费者来说，价格和数量呈负相关。在这两种情况下，权衡都在起作用：价格上涨会导致新的供应商会停止生产其他产品并专注于这一产品，而更高的价格会导致一些现有的买家停止消费这一产品而选择其替代品。

AT THE TURN OF THE TWENTIETH CENTURY, Englishman Alfred Marshall was the world’s most influential economist. His 1890 textbook Principles of Economics drew on his mathematical talents (he had achieved the prestigious rank of ‘Second Wrangler’ in his Cambridge maths exams) and was focused on how economics could improve social wellbeing. Supply and demand, Marshall wrote, were like the blades of a pair of scissors. In a graph with price on one axis and quantity on the other, the line representing supply generally slopes up because more people are willing to provide a good or service when the price is higher. The line representing demand tends to slope down because of the familiar concept of diminishing marginal utility: the more that consumers have of something, the less they are willing to pay for each additional unit. For suppliers, price and quantity increase together. For consumers, there is a negative relationship between price and quantity. In both cases, trade-offs are at play: higher prices cause new suppliers to stop making other things and focus on this one, while higher prices cause some existing buyers to stop consuming this thing in favour of its substitutes.

两条线相交的地方就是市场均衡点，即供应与需求相交的点。如果马歇尔在 1900 年想买一颗钻石，他就会注意到市场反映了买家购买钻石的意愿和卖家出售钻石的意愿。均衡价格是卖家愿意出售的数量与买家愿意购买的数量完全匹配的价格。早期的经济学家已经绘制了供需图，但该图被称为“马歇尔十字图”，因为他的描述是最完整、最有说服力的模型。¹

Where the two lines cross is the market equilibrium – the point at which supply meets demand. If Marshall had wanted to buy a diamond in 1900, he would have noted that the market reflected the willingness of buyers to acquire diamonds and sellers to part with them. The equilibrium price is the price at which the amount that sellers are willing to sell exactly matches the amount that buyers are willing to buy. Earlier economists had graphed supply and demand, but the chart is known as the ‘Marshallian Cross’ because his was the most complete and persuasive description of the model.¹

考虑到生产者，马歇尔区分了公司的固定成本（如公司拥有的土地和建筑物）和可变成本（如公司使用的劳动力和原材料）。从长远来看，如果公司无法承担维护和更换资产的成本，它就会破产。但在短期内，对公司产品定价影响最大的是公司的可变成本。棉花价格会很快受到水价变化的影响，而机械成本上涨的影响则会比较缓慢。

Considering producers, Marshall distinguished between a company’s fixed costs – such as the land and buildings it owns – and its variable costs – such as the labour and raw materials it uses. In the long run, a company will go out of business if it cannot cover the costs of maintaining and replacing its assets. But in the short term, what most affects the price that a company charges for its outputs are its variable costs. The price of cotton will be quickly affected by changes in the cost of water, while the impact of rising machinery costs will be felt more slowly.

马歇尔是一位熟练的数学家，但他的教科书之所以受欢迎，是因为他能够通过图表和例子传达思想——自那以后，经济学家就一直用这种方法来教学生。正如马歇尔曾经总结他的体系：“（1）把数学作为一种速记语言，而不是而不是作为探究的引擎。（2）坚持做下去，直到做完为止。（3）翻译成英文。（4）然后用生活中重要的例子来说明。（5）烧掉数学。（6）如果不能成功做到第 4 点，就烧掉第 3 点。我经常这样做。换句话说，经济学家应该把数学当作一个有用的工具来解释世界——但不要沉迷于深奥的数学，因为深奥的数学无法解释经济是如何运作的。更多的经济学家应该听从马歇尔的建议。

Marshall was a skilled mathematician, but the popularity of his textbook was due to his ability to convey ideas through diagrams and examples – methods that economists have used to teach students ever since. As Marshall once summarised his system: ‘(1) Use mathematics as a shorthand language, rather than as an engine of inquiry. (2) Keep to them till you have done. (3) Translate into English. (4) Then illustrate by examples that are important in real life. (5) Burn the mathematics. (6) If you can’t succeed in 4, burn 3. This last I did often.’ In other words, economists should employ mathematics as a useful tool to illustrate the world – but not get carried away with esoteric mathematics that fails to shed light on how the economy works. More economists should follow Marshall’s advice.

马歇尔以惊人的清晰度表达了重要思想。在某些情况下，令人惊讶的是它们在历史上出现得如此之晚。市场和数学已经存在了数千年。“经济学”来自古希腊术语oikonomia，大致翻译为“家庭管理”。古希腊数学家理解毕达哥拉斯定理，可以近似圆周率，并且知道如何估算抛物线下的面积。然而，直到 20 世纪初才出现了对供需的详尽阐述。

Marshall expressed important ideas with striking clarity. In some instances, it is surprising they came so late in history. Markets and mathematics had been around for thousands of years. ‘Economics’ comes from the Ancient Greek term oikonomia, which roughly translates as ‘household management’. Ancient Greek mathematicians understood Pythagoras’ theorem, could approximate pi, and knew how to estimate the area under a parabola. Yet a solid exposition of supply and demand only emerged around the turn of the twentieth century.

20 世纪初期还出现了一个重要的经济机构：美国联邦储备委员会。美联储并不是第一家中央银行，但它古怪的创立故事值得一提。1907 年，当银行业崩溃威胁到整个体系时，著名金融家摩根·P·摩根召集同事来到他位于麦迪逊大道的豪宅，并锁上了门。他告诉他们：“这里是解决问题的地方。”摩根向面临风险的银行承诺提供数百万美元，并说服他的银行家同事也这样做。恐慌逐渐平息。

The early part of the twentieth century also saw the formation of a critical economic institution: the US Federal Reserve. The Fed was not the first central bank, but its quirky creation story bears retelling. In 1907, when a banking collapse threatened the system, leading financier J.P. Morgan had summoned colleagues to his Madison Avenue mansion and locked the door. ‘This is the place to stop the trouble,’ he told them. Morgan pledged millions of dollars to at-risk banks and persuaded his fellow bankers to do the same. The panic subsided.

三年后，美国各大商业银行的代表再次主动出击，秘密召开了为期十天的在佐治亚州的杰基尔岛举行会议。银行家们假装他们正在参加一次鸭子狩猎之旅，为了不被人看到他们一起上火车，他们一个接一个地登上火车。一位银行家甚至带着一把猎枪，让这次旅行看起来更真实。该报告提出了美国联邦储备委员会的架构，最终由十二家拥有发行货币权力的地区银行组成。经过国会的一些紧张谈判，美联储于 1913 年成立。美国不会仅仅依靠金融富豪来避免下一次银行业危机。

Three years later, representatives of major US commercial banks again took the initiative, convening a secret ten-day meeting on Jekyll Island in Georgia. The bankers pretended they were on a duck-hunting trip, and boarded their train one at a time so as not to be seen together. One banker apparently even toted a shotgun to give the trip an air of authenticity. The report proposed the architecture of what would become the US Federal Reserve, eventually comprising twelve regional banks with the power to issue currency. Following some tense negotiations in Congress, the Federal Reserve was created in 1913. The United States would not be solely reliant on financial plutocrats to avert the next banking crisis.

中央银行自 17 世纪就已存在（阿姆斯特丹银行、斯德哥尔摩中央银行和英格兰银行均成立于 17 世纪），但在 20 世纪，中央银行越来越多地承担起为经济体系提供稳定的作用。普通商业银行使用短期存款发放长期贷款。由于它们借入短期资金并贷出长期资金，因此，如果所有存款人同时要求归还资金，即使是管理最完善的银行也容易出现现金短缺的情况。通过为人们的存款提供担保，中央银行可以防止银行挤兑，并使金融体系更加稳定。通常，这不会涉及一分钱的易手：一旦人们知道他们的存款得到担保，恐慌就可避免。我们可以将金融稳定视为一种公共利益：一种惠及所有人的利益，不会因享受更稳定体系的人数而减少。在现代，中央银行在控制通胀方面也发挥着重要作用，我们稍后将回到这一问题。

Central banks had existed since the seventeenth century (the Bank of Amsterdam, the central bank of Stockholm and the Bank of England were all founded in the 1600s), but in the twentieth century, central banks increasingly took on the role of providing stability to the economic system. Regular commercial banks use money from short-term deposits to make long-term loans. Because they borrow short and lend long, even the best-managed bank is vulnerable to running out of cash if all its depositors simultaneously demand their money back. By guaranteeing people’s deposits, a central bank can prevent bank runs, and make the financial system more stable. Typically, this doesn’t involve a cent changing hands: once people know that their deposits are guaranteed, the panic is avoided. We might think of financial stability as a public good: a benefit that flows to everyone, undiminished by the number of people who enjoy a more stable system. In the modern era, central banks also have an important role in targeting inflation, to which we will return shortly.

密歇根州迪尔伯恩市福特汽车公司的装配线。

The assembly line at Ford Motors, Dearborn, Michigan.

摄影师不详，亨利·福特访谈，《文学文摘》，1928 年 7 月 1 日。图片来自 Wikimedia Commons。

Photographer unknown, Henry Ford Interview, Literary Digest, 1 July 1928. Image via Wikimedia Commons.

汽车是当时最热门的新产品之一，其发展很大程度上归功于专业化。起初，汽车既昂贵又令人向往，但 1908 年，福特公司高管彼得·马丁 (Peter Martin) 提出了流水线的概念。马丁在参观芝加哥一家屠宰场时萌生了这个想法，屠宰场里，屠宰的尸体在工人之间移动，每个工人都切下一块标准的肉。在底特律的一家工厂，流水线实验表明，流水线使工人能够更快地生产汽车。当该系统投入运行时，汽车下线速度非常快，以至于福特决定不再允许客户选择汽车的颜色。事实证明，黑色油漆干得最快。因此，亨利·福特决定，客户“可以将汽车漆成任何他想要的颜色，只要它是黑色的”。²装配线如今已成为许多制造工厂的标准组成部分，但在当时，颠覆装配线却是一件激进的事情。过程：汽车向零件移动，而不是相反。

One of the hottest new products of the era was the automobile, and its evolution owes much to specialisation. At first, cars were as unaffordable as they were desirable, but in 1908 Peter Martin, an executive at Ford, proposed the idea of an assembly line. Martin got the idea from visiting a Chicago slaughterhouse, where carcasses moved between workers, who each sliced off a standard cut of meat. In a Detroit plant, experiments with assembly lines showed that they allowed workers to produce cars far more quickly. When the system was put into operation, vehicles came off the line so speedily that Ford decided it could no longer allow customers to choose the colour of their cars. It turned out that black paint dried fastest. Accordingly, Henry Ford decided that a customer ‘can have a car painted any color that he wants so long as it is black’.² The assembly line is now a standard part of many manufacturing facilities, but at the time it was radical to flip the process: for the car to move towards the parts rather than the other way around.

创新也重塑了零售业。1909 年，哈里·塞尔福里奇 (Harry Selfridge) 在伦敦牛津街开设了一家新型百货公司。塞尔福里奇百货公司旨在让购物变得有趣。他设计了商店结构，让顾客可以自己挑选待售商品，鼓励店员让女性购物者感到宾至如归，并培训她们专攻不同的产品线。塞尔福里奇巧妙地将香水柜台设在一楼，热情地称顾客为“客人”，并在广告中打出“顾客永远是对的”的广告词。

Innovation reshaped retail too. In 1909, Harry Selfridge opened a new kind of department store in Oxford Street, London. Selfridges aimed to make shopping fun. He structured the store so that customers could handle items for sale, encouraged staff to make women shoppers feel welcome and trained them to specialise in different product lines. Selfridge cleverly positioned the perfume counter on the ground floor, invitingly called his customers ‘guests’, and ran ads with the line ‘the customer is always right’.

其他零售商则注重价格。在美国，弗兰克·伍尔沃斯 (Frank Woolworth) 创立了一系列以 5 美分和 10 美分的价格出售商品的商店。据说这些“廉价商店”的经营原则是“堆高再低价出售”。³ 1912 年，伍尔沃斯在全国拥有 596 家门店，上市。凭借如此庞大的门店网络，他们能够利用自己的购买力与供应商协商降价。沃尔玛、ÆON、Aldi、Tesco 和家乐福是这种零售策略的现代继承者，该策略为消费者提供更低的价格，为股东带来更高的回报，同时挤压供应商和独立零售商。

Other retailers focused on price. In the United States, Frank Woolworth created a series of stores that sold products for five and ten cents. These ‘five-and-dime stores’ were said to operate on the principle ‘pile ’em high and sell ’em cheap’.³ In 1912, Woolworth floated on the stock market with 596 stores across the country. With such a large network of stores, they were able to use their buying power to negotiate lower prices with suppliers. Walmart, ÆON, Aldi, Tesco and Carrefour are modern heirs to this retail strategy, which delivers lower prices for consumers and fatter returns for shareholders, while squeezing suppliers and independent retailers.

纽约早期的伍尔沃斯商店。

An early Woolworth store in New York.

马丁·福斯滕泽 / 赫尔顿档案 / 盖蒂图片社。

Martin Forstenzer / Hulton Archive / Getty.

技术创新也影响了药物的使用。19 世纪 80 年代，詹姆斯·邦萨克 (James Bonsack) 发明的卷烟机彻底改变了烟草行业，到 20 世纪 10 年代，烟草消费量迅速上升（美国烟草消费量在 20 世纪 60 年代达到顶峰，一半男性定期吸烟）。1898 年至 1910 年，拜耳公司将海洛因作为非处方止咳药销售。可卡因一直被添加到可口可乐中，直到 20 世纪初。1913 年，一位专家声称，近四分之一的美国医生对吗啡上瘾。⁴

Technological innovation shaped substance use too. In the 1880s, James Bonsack’s cigarette-rolling machine had revolutionised the industry, and by the 1910s, cigarette consumption was rising rapidly (in the United States it would peak in the 1960s, with half of men smoking regularly). Heroin was marketed by Bayer from 1898 to 1910 as an over-the-counter cough suppressant. Cocaine was added to Coca-Cola until the early 1900s. In 1913, one expert claimed that nearly a quarter of US doctors were addicted to morphine.⁴

拜耳的止咳药虽然有效，但也容易让人上瘾。

While effective, Bayer’s cough medicine also proved highly addictive.

Mpv_51。图片来自 Wikimedia Commons。

Mpv_51. Image via Wikimedia Commons.

这是一个大规模移民的时代。护照仍然很少被需要。就像移民涌向澳大利亚金矿一样，数百万人利用航运技术的进步从俄罗斯移民到加拿大，从德国移民到新西兰，或者从荷兰移民到印度尼西亚。新船采用钢制船体，由燃煤发动机驱动。19 世纪 50 年代，移民从利物浦航行到纽约需要 53 天。到 20 世纪 10 年代，旅程缩短到仅需 8 天。⁵当经济学家审视移民时，他们大多认为人们移居到他们感觉更安全、更快乐、更高效的地方。移民不仅仅是养家糊口，他们还带来了强健的体魄和鼓舞人心的思想。将移民仅仅视为新的需求来源是错误的——他们也是新的供应来源。

This was an era of mass migration. Passports were still rarely required. Just as migrants had flocked to the Australian gold fields, millions took advantage of the improvements in shipping technology to migrate from Russia to Canada, from Germany to New Zealand, or from the Netherlands to Indonesia. The new ships had steel hulls and were powered by coal engines. In the 1850s, it took migrants fifty-three days to sail from Liverpool to New York. By the 1910s, the journey had been cut to just eight days.⁵ When economists look at migration, they mostly see people who are relocating to places where they feel safer, happier and more productive. Migrants are not just mouths to feed; they also bring muscles that build and minds that inspire. It is a mistake to see migrants as merely a new source of demand – they are also a new source of supply.

第一次世界大战打破了这个相互联系的世界。尽管交战双方有着紧密的商业联系（1914 年，伦敦劳合社为大部分德国航运贸易提供保险），但战争还是爆发了。⁶当欧洲各国陷入战争时，世界上大部分贸易和移民都停止了。虽然战争的起因出乎意料，但最终结果却出乎意料。战争爆发时，协约国（英国、法国、俄罗斯及其盟友）拥有的资源远多于同盟国（德意志帝国、奥匈帝国及其盟友）。协约国的人口是同盟国的五倍，领土是同盟国的十一倍，收入是同盟国的三倍。⁷

World War I broke this interconnected world. War came despite the strong commercial ties between the combatants (in 1914, Lloyd’s of London insured most of the German shipping trade).⁶ When the nations of Europe sleepwalked into war, much of the world’s trade and migration ceased. And while its origins were unexpected, the ultimate result was not. At the outbreak of hostilities, the Allied powers (Britain, France, Russia and their allies) had far more resources than the Central powers (the German Empire, the Austro-Hungarian Empire and their allies). The Allied powers had five times the population, eleven times the territory and three times the income.⁷

这场冲突持续了四年，造成约 2000 万人死亡，这反映出将军们的无能和政治领导人的顽固。但当冲突结束后，经济基础较强的一方获胜。

The fact that the conflict took four years and claimed around 20 million lives reflects the ineptitude of the generals and the intransigence of the political leaders. But when the conflict ended, the side with the larger economic base had won.

在俄罗斯，动乱才刚刚开始。1917 年的共产主义革命许诺“和平、土地和面包”。结果却带来了六年的内战和灾难性的经济后果。平均收入迅速减半。⁸在一些俄罗斯城市，平均卡路里摄入量也减少了一半。冲突、随之而来的饥荒和传染病的蔓延导致 1300 万人过早死亡。列宁政权废除了土地私有制，禁止出售或出租土地。这项禁令一直持续到 1990 年。

In Russia, the turmoil was just beginning. The 1917 communist revolution promised ‘peace, land and bread’. It delivered a six-year civil war and catastrophic economic outcomes. Average incomes quickly halved.⁸ In some Russian cities, average caloric intake halved too. The conflict, the ensuing famine and the spread of infectious diseases led to 13 million premature deaths. Lenin’s regime abolished private ownership of land and forbade the selling or renting of land. This prohibition would remain in place until 1990.

公地悲剧

TRAGEDY OF THE COMMONS

假设一群农民都可以使用一块公用草地，他们可以在那里放牛。防止过度放牧符合他们的集体利益。但每个农民的个人利益都在于在公用草地上多放一头牛。如果农民无法协调，那么很可能的结果是牧场会被过度放牧。

Suppose that a group of farmers all have access to a common meadow, where they can let their cows graze. It would be in their collective interest to prevent overgrazing. But it is in each farmer’s individual interest to put one more animal onto the commons. If the farmers fail to coordinate, then the likely outcome is that the pasture will be overgrazed.

公地悲剧的出现是因为每头新奶牛都会给生态系统带来一点负面外部效应。如果奶牛的主人不为这种外部效应付出任何代价，那么结果可能是一场灾难。例如，在加拿大沿海的纽芬兰鳕鱼渔业中，声纳等新捕鱼技术的使用导致鱼类资源崩溃，鳕鱼种群数量在 1985 年至 1995 年间下降到历史水平的 1%。⁹

The tragedy of the commons arises because each new cow imposes a small negative externality on the ecosystem. If the cow’s owner does not pay anything for this externality, then the result can be a catastrophe. In the Newfoundland cod fishery off the coast of Canada, for example, the use of new fishing technology such as sonar led to a collapse in fish stocks, with the cod population falling to 1 percent of its historic level between 1985 and 1995.⁹

在其他情况下，社区也找到了巧妙的解决方案。2009 年，埃莉诺·奥斯特罗姆成为第一位获得诺贝尔经济学奖的女性，获奖原因是她研究了当地社区如何管理公共资源。在尼泊尔，稻农齐心协力管理水资源。在肯尼亚，社区合作管理森林资源。在印度尼西亚，当地渔民精心管理鱼类资源。

In other instances, communities have found ingenious solutions. In 2009, Elinor Ostrom became the first woman to win the Nobel Prize in Economics for her work on how local communities had managed common pool resources. In Nepal, rice farmers worked together to manage water. In Kenya, communities cooperated to manage forest resources. In Indonesia, local fishers carefully managed fish stocks.

埃莉诺·奥斯特罗姆分析了一些传统群体如何制定规则来共享共同资源。

Elinor Ostrom analysed how some traditional groups developed rules to share common resources.

奥斯特罗姆的研究教训不是用户管理总是有效，而是它是可能的。她观察到，在成功的案例中，当地人积极参与制定规则，而不是由外来者强加规则。当由当地人执行、有直接的解决纠纷的机制、对最初的违规行为有适度的制裁时，用户管理就会奏效。公地悲剧并非不可避免。

The lesson of Ostrom’s research is not that user management will always work, but that it is possible. In the successful cases, she observed, locals were actively involved in creating the rules, rather than having them imposed by outsiders. User management worked when enforcement was done by locals, with straightforward mechanisms for resolving disputes, and modest sanctions for initial breaches. The tragedy of the commons is not inevitable.

7 第一次世界大战与大萧条

World War I and the Depression

第一次世界大战造成的经济损失远远超出了 1918 年。根据和平协议，德国必须支付 1320 亿金马克的赔款（该金额以黄金储备表示）。这相当于该国战前财富的一半左右。¹这是一个巨大的数额，超出了德国经济的承受能力，德国政府甚至难以支付最初的款项。²

THE ECONOMIC DAMAGE OF WORLD WAR I went well beyond 1918. In the peace settlement, Germany was required to pay reparations of 132 billion gold marks (the sum was expressed in gold reserves). This was equivalent to around half of the country’s pre-war wealth.¹ It was a vast amount; beyond anything the German economy could support, and the country’s government struggled to make even the initial payments.²

为了偿还债务，德国政府开始印钞。印了很多钱。由此产生的通货膨胀逐渐侵蚀了德国马克的价值。公民有时需要用手推车来运送工资。政府发行了新钞票——首先是数千马克，然后是数百万马克，然后是数十亿马克，然后是数万亿马克。1918 年价值 1 德国马克的物品在 1923 年就价值 1 万亿马克。

To meet its debts, the German government began printing money. Lots of money. The resulting inflation steadily eroded the value of the German mark. Citizens sometimes needed wheelbarrows to carry their wages. The government produced new banknotes – first representing thousands of marks, then millions, then billions, then trillions. An item that cost 1 German mark in 1918 cost 1 trillion marks in 1923.

恶性通货膨胀给经济带来严重破坏。购物者采用分期付款的方式购买所有商品，因为未用掉的现金正在贬值。餐馆必须不断修改菜单。出租车必须不断更换计价器。1923 年 11 月的一天，德国面包的价格比当天开始时高出七倍。³最终，德国决策者恢复了货币价值与黄金的联系，控制了恶性通货膨胀，并让德国在 20 世纪 20 年代末享受了一段相对繁荣的时期。但对恶性通货膨胀的记忆让决策者在即将到来的经济大萧条面前过于谨慎。在这场经济动荡中，希特勒于 1933 年出任德国总理。

Hyperinflation creates havoc in the economy. Shoppers purchase everything on instalment, buying everything with part payments because unspent cash is losing value. Restaurants must keep rewriting their menus. Taxis have to continually change their meters. On a single day in November 1923, the price of bread in Germany was seven times higher at the end of the day than it had been at the beginning.³ Eventually, German policymakers restored the link between currency value and gold, bringing hyperinflation under control, and allowing Germany to enjoy a period of relative prosperity in the late 1920s. But memories of hyperinflation made policymakers excessively cautious in the face of the depression that was to come. Amid this economic turmoil, Hitler became chancellor in 1933.

在通货膨胀肆虐的魏玛共和国，孩子们玩着几乎一文不值的钞票。

Children play with almost worthless banknotes in the inflation-afflicted Weimer Republic.

画报出版社/Alamy 图片库。

Pictorial Press / Alamy Stock Photo.

“咆哮的二十年代”见证了爵士乐、舞蹈和装饰艺术的演变。在大部分发达国家，消费者消费和经济增长蓬勃发展。1929 年 10 月 15 日，在一次晚宴上，耶鲁大学著名经济学家欧文·费雪告诉听众，“股票价格似乎已经达到了一个永久的高位”。但费雪错了。仅仅一周后，市场遭遇了有史以来最大的单日抛售：这是一系列重大损失中的第一次，这些损失后来演变成大萧条。到 1932 年，美国股市已从 1929 年的峰值下跌了 89%。

The ‘roaring twenties’ saw the evolution of jazz, dancing and Art Deco. Across much of the advanced world, consumer spending and economic growth boomed. At a dinner on 15 October 1929, prominent Yale economist Irving Fisher told his audience that ‘stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau’. But Fisher was wrong. Just over a week later, the market suffered its biggest-ever one-day sell-off: the first of a series of major losses that would become the Great Depression. By 1932, the US stock market was 89 per cent down from its 1929 peak.

投机是导致股市崩盘的部分原因。随着股价上涨，越来越多的人涌入股市，希望一夜暴富。商人约瑟夫·肯尼迪（未来美国总统约翰·肯尼迪的父亲）显然曾告诉朋友，当股票话题传到他熟悉的圈子之外时，他就知道有些不对劲：“如果擦鞋小伙子在提供股票信息，那么是时候退出股市了。”但很少有人预见到股市崩盘。许多人借钱投资，结果股价下跌让他们身无分文。全球金融市场跟随美国股市下跌。

Speculation was partly to blame for the crash. As share prices had risen, more people had piled into the market, hoping to get rich quickly. Businessman Joseph Kennedy, father of the future US president John F. Kennedy, apparently told friends that he knew something was amiss when talk of shares spread outside his usual circles: ‘If the shoeshine boys are giving stock tips, then it’s time to get out of the market.’ But few saw the crash coming. Many had borrowed to invest, and the resulting price drop left them penniless. Across the world, financial markets followed the US share market downwards.

尽管五分之四的人口没有股票（拥有股票的擦鞋童可能并不那么常见），但市场崩溃迅速影响了经济的其他部分。企业停止投资。惊慌失措的公民停止消费。反过来，消费减少意味着经济活动减少。数百万人失业。在美国，失业率达到 25% 的峰值，这意味着四分之一的想找工作的工人找不到工作。帐篷城在伦敦的海德公园、纽约的中央公园和悉尼领地。拉丁美洲受大萧条的打击尤其严重，这助长了威权民族主义的兴起。1930 年，军政府夺取了阿根廷和巴西的政权。

Although four-fifths of the population did not own shares (stock-owning shoeshine boys may not have been so common after all), the market crash swiftly had an impact on the rest of the economy. Businesses stopped investing. Frightened citizens stopped spending. In turn, less consumption meant less economic activity. Millions lost their jobs. In the United States, unemployment peaked at 25 per cent, meaning that one in four workers who wanted a job were unable to find one. Tent cities sprang up in London’s Hyde Park, New York’s Central Park and the Sydney Domain. Latin America was especially hard hit by the Depression, which contributed to the rise of authoritarian nationalism. In 1930, miliary juntas seized power in Argentina and Brazil.

大萧条影响到了世界各地。

The Great Depression was felt around the world.

Fotosearch/Stringer/Getty Images。

Fotosearch / Stringer / Getty Images.

英国经济学家约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯在研究大萧条问题时认为，问题的出现是因为人们的行为以意想不到的方式相互影响。凯恩斯将这个问题比作蜜蜂群落成员决定过节俭生活的情形。节俭可能看起来是一种美德，但由于一只蜜蜂的消费是另一只蜜蜂的生产，因此蜂群崩溃了，空心树中的所有蜜蜂都陷入了痛苦之中。凯恩斯认为解决方案是政府花钱——最好是用于公共工程项目——来重启经济。

Studying the problem of the Great Depression, British economist John Maynard Keynes argued that the problem occurred because people’s actions affected one another in unexpected ways. Keynes likened the problem to a situation in which members of a bee colony decide that they will live thrifty lives. Thrift might seem virtuous, but because one bee’s consumption is another’s production, the colony collapses and all the bees in their hollow tree are left miserable. Keynes argued that the solution was for the government to spend money – ideally on public works projects – to restart the economy.

经济学家中并非普遍持有这种观点。或许，最能表达这种观点的人是奥地利经济学家弗里德里希·冯·哈耶克。哈耶克认为经济衰退是必要之恶。他认为，危机前的政府政策使利率过低，导致企业不明智地借贷。危机来临时，正是这些不谨慎的企业倒闭了。经济衰退不像是一种可以避免的疾病，更像是酗酒后不可避免的宿醉。⁴

This was not a universal view among economists. Perhaps the most articulate exponent of the alternative perspective was Austrian economist Friedrich von Hayek. Hayek saw economic downturns as a necessary evil. He believed that government policies in the pre-crisis period made interest rates too low, which led firms to borrow unwisely. When the crisis came, it was those imprudent firms that collapsed. A recession was less like an avoidable illness and more like the inevitable hangover that follows a drinking binge.⁴

不难看出这两种分析背后的道德寓意。对哈耶克来说，经济衰退代表着对不良投资的清理。凯恩斯认为经济衰退是痛苦且不必要的。哈耶克认为政府干预只会让情况变得更糟。凯恩斯认为政府在平稳经济周期方面发挥着宝贵作用。哈耶克担心民主政府会侵蚀自由，并认为过渡性独裁有时是必要的。

It isn’t hard to see the moral messages behind these two analyses. To Hayek, recessions represented a clean-out of bad investments. Keynes saw recessions as painful and unnecessary. Hayek believed that government intervention would only make things worse. Keynes thought that government had a valuable role in smoothing the economic cycle. Hayek feared that democratic governments could erode liberty and believed that transitional dictatorships were sometimes necessary.

这两位经济学家之间的差异还延伸到他们的个人生活。哈耶克性格更为严肃，由感情疏远的父母抚养长大，当时奥地利在战场上节节败退，经济上也饱受苦难。他性格冷淡内敛；一本传记称，他一生中只有三个亲密的男性朋友。⁵

The differences between these two economists extended to their personal lives. Hayek was the more austere figure, raised by emotionally distant parents at a time when Austria was losing on the battlefield and suffering economically. He was cold and reserved; one biography reckons he had only three close male friends in his life.⁵

相比之下，凯恩斯则充满自信。他利用业余时间学习经济学，当他在考试中表现不佳时，他高兴地表示，“我显然知道我比考官们更了解经济学。’⁶凯恩斯是毕加索、雷诺阿和马蒂斯的收藏家，也是一位以今天的标准衡量的千万富翁投资者。他记录了自己与男性和女性的性行为，1909 年记录了 65 次，1910 年记录了 26 次，1911 年记录了 39 次，等等。⁷事实上，凯恩斯的广泛兴趣可能促成了他思想开放和自由的世界观。凯恩斯善于交友，他和他的妻子莉迪亚都是布卢姆斯伯里派的成员，这是一个由英国作家和画家组成的小团体。该团体的另一名成员、作家弗吉尼亚·伍尔夫将凯恩斯描述为“一只饱经风霜的海豹”，有着“双下巴、红唇”和“小眼睛”。他胸怀大志、乐观自信，这些品质使他成为 20 世纪初最具影响力的经济学家。

In contrast, Keynes was brimming with self-belief. He had learnt economics in his spare time, and when he underperformed in an exam he cheerfully opined, ‘I evidently knew more about economics than my examiners.’⁶ Keynes was a collector of Picassos, Renoirs and Matisses, and an investor who was a multimillionaire by today’s standards. He kept diaries of his sexual exploits (with men and women), recording sixty-five encounters in 1909, twenty-six in 1910, thirty-nine in 1911 and so on.⁷ Indeed, his broad tastes may have contributed to Keynes’s open-mindedness and liberal world view. Keynes had a knack for friendship and both he and his wife, Lydia, were members of the Bloomsbury Group, a clique of English writers and painters. Another member of that group, writer Virginia Woolf, described Keynes as ‘a gorged seal’ with a ‘double chin, ledge of red lip’ and ‘little eyes’. He was cosmopolitan, optimistic and confident, qualities that helped make him the most influential economist of the early twentieth century.

视频制作人约翰·帕波拉 (John Papola) 和经济学家拉斯·罗伯茨 (Russ Roberts) 创作了一段模拟说唱对决，总结了凯恩斯和哈耶克之间的差异。副歌部分是这样的：

The Keynes–Hayek difference was summed up in a mock rap battle penned by video producer John Papola and economist Russ Roberts. The chorus goes:

我们已经来来回回一个世纪了

We’ve been going back and forth for a century

[凯恩斯] 我想引导市场，

[Keynes] I want to steer markets,

[哈耶克] 我希望他们获得自由

[Hayek] I want them set free

存在着繁荣与萧条的循环，我们有充分的理由担心它

There’s a boom-and-bust cycle and good reason to fear it

[哈耶克] 归咎于低利率。

[Hayek] Blame low interest rates.

[凯恩斯] 不，这是动物精神

[Keynes] No . . . it’s the animal spirits

凯恩斯主义者认为经济衰退就像自然灾害：一场可能袭击我们任何人的冲击。现代政策制定者大部分都是凯恩斯主义者（尽管我们在政府应对冲击的力度上存在分歧）。一位批评哈耶克的人认为，哈耶克应对衰退的方法“就像拒绝给掉进冰水池的醉汉提供毯子和兴奋剂一样不合适，理由是醉汉最初的问题是过热”。⁸哈耶克对当今主流经济学的影响不是通过他对管理商业周期的观点，而是通过他关于市场“看不见的手”的著作，这些著作指出自发秩序如何从个人追求自身利益的自由市场中产生。

Keynesians thought recessions were like natural disasters: a shock that could hit any of us. Modern policymakers are largely Keynesian (although we differ in how big the government response to shocks should be). One critic of Hayek argued that his approach to recessions was ‘as unsuitable as denying blankets and stimulants to a drunk who has fallen into an icy pond, on the grounds that his original problem was overheating’.⁸ Hayek’s influence on mainstream economics today is not through his views on managing the business cycle, but from his writings on ‘the invisible hand’ of the market, which note how spontaneous order can emerge from a free market in which individuals are pursuing their own self-interest.

20 世纪 30 年代的大萧条之所以被称为“大萧条”，部分原因是它持续的时间太长。一些国家不听从凯恩斯的建议，而是采取紧缩政策——在经济低迷时期削减政府预算。一项研究表明，1939 年（股市崩盘十年后），比利时、加拿大、丹麦、荷兰、挪威和英国的失业率超过 10%。⁹对于许多家庭来说，1939 年扣除通货膨胀因素后的收入比十年前要低。

The 1930s Depression is referred to as the ‘Great’ Depression partly because it lasted so long. Rather than listen to Keynes, some nations pursued austerity – cutting government budgets in the face of the downturn. According to one study, unemployment in 1939 – a decade after the stock market crash – was above 10 per cent in Belgium, Canada, Denmark, the Netherlands, Norway and the United Kingdom.⁹ For many households, incomes after inflation were lower in 1939 than they had been a decade earlier.

导致大萧条持续的因素之一是开放度的倒退。1930 年，美国共和党人里德·斯穆特和威利斯·霍利共同发起一项法案，要求提高 20,000 多种农产品和工业品进口关税。为了表明其对自由贸易的承诺，1,028 名经济学家写了一封公开信，敦促赫伯特·胡佛总统否决《斯穆特-霍利关税法案》。总统签署该法案，表明政客们倾向于在贸易问题上忽视经济学家的意见。

One of the factors that prolonged the Great Depression was a retreat from openness. In 1930, US Republicans Reed Smoot and Willis Hawley co-sponsored legislation to increase tariffs on over 20,000 agricultural and industrial imports. Demonstrating their profession’s commitment to free trade, 1,028 economists wrote an open letter urging President Herbert Hoover to veto the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act. Demonstrating the tendency of politicians to ignore economists on trade matters, the president signed it into law.

关税上调导致许多美国企业的产品价格上涨，从而损害了美国企业。数百种汽车零部件成为关税目标，损害了汽车行业。羊毛碎布的关税增加了一倍多，损害了使用羊毛碎布制作廉价服装的纺织品制造商。¹⁰其他国家也采取了新的关税措施。¹¹法国提高汽车关税，实际上关闭了美国中等价位汽车的市场。西班牙提高了美国出口的许多产品的关税，包括缝纫机、剃须刀片和轮胎。加拿大提高了关税并征收“反倾销”税。

The increase in tariffs hurt United States firms by raising the prices of many of their inputs. Hundreds of car parts were targeted, which harmed the automotive industry. The tariff on wool rags was more than doubled, damaging textile manufacturers who used wool rags to make cheap clothing.¹⁰ Other countries responded with fresh tariffs of their own.¹¹ French increases in car tariffs virtually closed its market to mid-priced US vehicles. Spain raised tariffs on many products exported by the US, including sewing machines, razor blades and tyres. Canada raised tariffs and imposed ‘anti-dumping’ duties.

第一次世界大战结束后的几年里，移民限制愈发严格。¹²加拿大禁止一些曾经与之对抗的国家移民。美国国会通过移民限制法案，实际上禁止所有亚洲移民，并减少其他国家的移民配额。20 世纪 30 年代，移民政策进一步收紧。澳大利亚征收的移民费相当于澳大利亚人年平均工资的四分之一。泰国引入了读写测试和昂贵的居留许可。新西兰关闭了移民部。20 世纪 30 年代来自欧洲的移民数量低于 19 世纪中期。

Immigration restrictions tightened in the years following the end of World War I.¹² Canada banned migration from some of the countries it had fought against. The US Congress passed immigration restrictions that effectively banned all migrants from Asia and reduced national quotas from other countries. Policies were tightened further still in the 1930s. Australia imposed an immigration fee equivalent to one-quarter of the average annual Australian wage. Thailand introduced a literacy test and expensive residence permits. New Zealand closed its Department of Immigration. Migration from Europe was lower in the 1930s than it had been in the mid-1800s.

大萧条还导致国际资本流动大幅放缓。在过去几十年里，投资从高收入国家流向低收入国家，追逐更高的回报，而且往往伴随着移民流动。外国投资的供给和海外投资的需求从越南到巴西，本世纪头三十年的外商投资浪潮在 20 世纪 30 年代开始逐渐消退。^十三

The Depression also led to a significant slowdown in international capital flows. In prior decades, investment flowed from high-income to low-income countries, chasing higher returns, and often following migrant flows. Both the supply of foreign investment and the demand for overseas investment dropped. From Vietnam to Brazil, a wave of foreign investment in the first three decades of the century began to peter out in the 1930s.¹³

然而，大萧条也为进步改革创造了政治条件。工人权利倡导者弗朗西斯·珀金斯是改革的主要推动者之一。珀金斯在职业生涯早期目睹了纽约市三角内衣工厂的大火，火灾中 146 名工人（其中大多数是年轻的移民妇女）在火灾中丧生，当时一栋城市建筑的出口被锁住，以防止工人未经授权休息。这段经历促使珀金斯接受了一份纽约市的工作，她在那里倡导更安全的工作场所，并限制妇女和儿童的最长工作时间。

Yet the Depression also helped create the political conditions for progressive reform. One of its key architects was workers’ rights advocate Frances Perkins. Early in her career, Perkins witnessed the Triangle Shirtwaist Factory fire in New York City, in which 146 workers – most of them young migrant women – were killed by a fire in a city building where the exits had been locked to prevent workers taking unauthorised breaks. The experience caused Perkins to take a job working for the City of New York, where she championed safer workplaces and a cap on the maximum number of hours that women and children could work.

1933 年，新当选的总统富兰克林·罗斯福任命弗朗西斯·珀金斯为美国劳工部长，她成为第一位担任内阁职务的女性。珀金斯参与设计了《美国社会保障法》，这是罗斯福新政的重要组成部分。社会保障于 1935 年颁布，直接向老年人支付福利，并在接下来的几十年里大大减少了老年贫困。尽管社会保障的资金来自工资税，但它让人们获得的回报超过了他们缴纳的金额。它的第一位每月受益人是佛蒙特州的学校教师艾达·富勒，她在 1940 年开始领取福利，当时她在缴纳了 25 美元的社会保障税后退休。富勒活到了 100 岁，总共领到了 22,889 美元。考虑到通货膨胀，她的福利是她缴纳的税款的 200 多倍。

In 1933, newly elected president Franklin D. Roosevelt appointed Frances Perkins as the US Secretary of Labor, making her the first woman to hold a cabinet post. Perkins helped design the United States Social Security Act, a key part of Roosevelt’s New Deal. Enacted in 1935, social security provided direct payments to the elderly, and over the coming decades dramatically reduced aged poverty. Although it was funded by payroll taxes, social security allowed people to get back more than they contributed. Its first monthly beneficiary, Vermont schoolteacher Ida Fuller, began receiving benefits in 1940, when she retired after having paid US$25 in social security taxes. Fuller lived to age 100, collecting a total of US$22,889. Accounting for inflation, her benefits were over 200 times what she had paid in taxes.

1935 年，罗斯福总统在弗朗西斯·珀金斯的见证下签署了《社会保障法案》。

President Roosevelt signs the Social Security Act in 1935, with Frances Perkins in attendance.

国会图书馆印刷品和照片部华盛顿。图片来自 Wikimedia Commons。

Library of Congress Prints and Photographs Division Washington. Image via Wikimedia Commons.

20 世纪 30 年代，经济学家对市场失灵的思考方式也取得了长足进步。对这项工作至关重要的人物莫过于琼·罗宾逊。罗宾逊成长于一个重视非传统思维和不墨守成规的家庭，并于 1931 年加入剑桥大学任教。当时凯恩斯主导着宏观经济学，而罗宾逊则专注于微观经济学，并测试了阿尔弗雷德·马歇尔的一些分析。

The 1930s also saw considerable progress in the way that economists thought about market failure. No one was more crucial to that work than Joan Robinson. Robinson grew up in a family that valued unorthodox thinking and nonconformity, and joined the faculty of Cambridge University in 1931. While Keynes dominated macroeconomics at the time, Robinson’s focus was on microeconomics, and testing some of Alfred Marshall’s analysis.

1933 年，罗宾逊出版了《不完全竞争经济学》，这本书颠覆了经济学对市场运作方式的认识。马歇尔的模型倾向于假设市场由许多买家和许多卖家组成。这可能很好地描述了一些行业，例如股票市场。但英国东印度公司的情况如何？罗宾逊的著作表明，激烈的竞争不是正常情况，而是作为一个特殊案例。其他人想象一个拥有大量交易者的动态市场，而罗宾逊的分析则承认垄断和寡头垄断很常见。

In 1933, Robinson published The Economics of Imperfect Competition, which flipped economic thinking about the way markets typically operate. Marshall’s models had tended to assume an economy in which markets were composed of many buyers and many sellers. That might be a fine depiction of a few sectors, such as the stock market. But what about the British East India Company? Robinson’s work presented vigorous competition not as the normal state of affairs but as a special case. Where others imagined a dynamic marketplace with lots of traders, Robinson’s analysis recognised that monopolies and oligopolies were common.

罗宾逊还引入了买方垄断的概念：卖方对其供应商拥有定价权的情况。在单一公司城镇，雇主对工人拥有买方垄断权，允许其向工人支付低于其真实价值的工资。如果一家超市连锁店控制了大部分食品杂货行业，它就可以对农民施加买方垄断权，向他们支付的工资低于他们在竞争市场中应得的工资。

Robinson also introduced the concept of monopsony: the situation in which a seller has pricing power over its suppliers. In a one-company town, the employer has monopsony power over workers, allowing it to pay them less than their true value. If a supermarket chain controls most of the grocery sector, it can exert monopsony power over farmers, paying them less than they would receive in a competitive market.

罗宾逊永无止境的好奇心意味着她不断质疑各种观点，包括她自己的观点。《不完全竞争经济学》出版 36 年后，她对自己的书写了一篇长达八页的严厉批评，并将其作为第二版的序言。尽管罗宾逊做出了重大的学术贡献，但她直到 1965 年才被任命为正教授。也许并非巧合，那一年正是她的丈夫从剑桥退休的那一年。1975 年，有如此强烈的谣言说她将获得诺贝尔奖，以至于《商业周刊》在宣布获奖之前刊登了一篇关于她工作的长篇简介。但奖项却落到了别人的头上。

Robinson’s relentless curiosity meant that she was constantly questioning ideas – including her own. Thirty-six years after The Economics of Imperfect Competition came out, she wrote a harsh eight-page critique of her own book, then made it the preface to the second edition. Yet despite her significant intellectual contributions, Robinson was not made a full professor until 1965. Perhaps not coincidentally, that was the year her husband retired from Cambridge. In 1975, there were such strong rumours that she would win the Nobel Prize that Businessweek published a long profile of her work ahead of the announcement. But the prize went elsewhere.

今天，我们理所当然地认为经济学家可以计算经济产出，但现代国民账户直到 20 世纪 20 年代和 30 年代才出现。其目标是获得随时间推移的精确生产和支出序列，从而确定一个国家总收入的变化。在英国，亚瑟·鲍利和约西亚·斯坦普试图对一年。AE Feavearyear 随后进行了一项研究，调查英国国民收入的使用情况——从兔子到宗教捐赠等各个方面分别进行研究。另一位统计学先驱是科林·克拉克，他在剑桥大学取得了成功的职业生涯，但在政治上却不成功（他曾三次代表英国工党），后来移居澳大利亚，发表了开创性的国民收入估算。在美国，西蒙·库兹涅茨和国家经济研究局（成立于 1920 年）在系统化收集有关价格、收入、储蓄和利润的国家统计数据方面发挥了主导作用。对于学者来说，数据收集促进了研究。对于政策制定者来说，衡量经济产出有助于及时干预以避免衰退。

We take it for granted today that economists can calculate economic output, but modern national accounts did not emerge until the 1920s and 1930s. The goal was to obtain an accurate series over time of production and expenditure, which would make it possible to determine changes in the total income of a nation. In the United Kingdom, Arthur Bowley and Josiah Stamp attempted a comprehensive analysis of a single year. A.E. Feavearyear followed up with a study examining how the British national income was spent – looking separately at everything from rabbits to religious donations. Another statistical pioneer was Colin Clark, who had a successful career at Cambridge University and an unsuccessful tilt at politics (he stood for the British Labour Party on three occasions), before moving to Australia, publishing pathbreaking estimates of national income. In the United States, Simon Kuznets and the National Bureau of Economic Research (founded in 1920) played a leading role in systematising the collection of national statistics on prices, earnings, savings and profits. For academics, the collection of data facilitated research. For policymakers, measuring economic output facilitated timely interventions to avoid recession.

独裁政权处理官方统计数据的方式提醒我们，不应将统计员的作用视为理所当然。1937 年，约瑟夫·斯大林宣布苏联将进行人口普查，这是十多年来的首次人口普查。斯大林曾吹嘘在他的政策下人口增长迅速，每年新增人口比芬兰总人口还多。这是个谎言。他的政策导致了饥荒和大规模移民，人口普查结果显示人口比斯大林声称的至少少 1000 万。1937 年的人口普查还显示，大多数人口信教，这一结果与领导层的反宗教观点相矛盾。斯大林下令不公布结果。人口普查局局长奥林皮·克维特金被处决。

The way that official statistics are handled by autocracies is a reminder that we should not take the role of statisticians for granted. In 1937, Joseph Stalin announced that the Soviet Union would conduct a census – the first for more than a decade. Stalin had been boasting that under his policies the population was growing rapidly – adding more people each year than the entire population of Finland. It was a lie. His policies had caused famine and mass emigration, and the census results showed a population that was at least 10 million people smaller than Stalin had claimed. The 1937 census also showed that most of the population were religious, a result at odds with the anti-religious views of the leadership. Stalin ordered that the results not be published. The chief of the census bureau, Olimpiy Kvitkin, was executed.

萨迪·亚历山大

SADIE ALEXANDER

未知摄影师，约 1921 年 6 月。图片来自 Wikimedia Commons。

Unknown photographer, c. June 1921. Image via Wikimedia Commons.

第一位获得经济学博士学位的非裔美国女性是 Sadie Alexander，她的父母都是奴隶。Alexander 的论文是在宾夕法尼亚大学撰写的，重点研究了向北迁移到费城的黑人家庭。通过采访一百个家庭，她分析了他们的生活水平和消费模式。Alexander 发现，尽管许多人住在拥挤不堪的房屋中，但三分之二的人不需要任何外部援助就能过活——特别是如果他们批量购买商品，并设法避免支付更高的价格，因为他们是黑人。

The first African American woman to receive a doctorate in economics was Sadie Alexander, whose parents had both been enslaved. Alexander’s dissertation, written at the University of Pennsylvania, focused on Black families that had migrated north to Philadelphia. Through interviews with one hundred families, she analysed living standards and spending patterns. Though many lived in overcrowded homes, Alexander found, two-thirds got by without any outside assistance – particularly if they bought goods in bulk and managed to avoid paying higher prices because they were Black.

1921 年毕业后，亚历山大无法找到适合自己能力的经济学工作。她回到宾夕法尼亚大学学习法律，然后加入了丈夫的公司，共同致力于民权诉讼，以废除费城电影院和酒店的种族隔离。但她的公开演讲充满了经济见解。¹⁴在一篇报道中，她指出帮助贫穷白人的政策无意中伤害了非裔美国人。当富兰克林·罗斯福总统 1933 年颁布的《国家工业复兴法》提高某些行业的工资时，这些行业的雇主解雇了黑人工人，并雇用白人来代替他们。亚历山大称这项法律为“黑人削减法案”。

Graduating in 1921, Alexander was unable to find a job in economics befitting her ability. She returned to Penn to study law, then joined her husband’s firm – working together on civil rights lawsuits to desegregate Philadelphia’s cinemas and hotels. But her public speeches are rich in economic insights.¹⁴ In one, she noted how policies to help poor whites inadvertently harmed African Americans. When President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s 1933 National Industrial Recovery Act boosted wages in certain sectors, employers in those industries fired Black workers and hired whites in their place. Alexander dubbed the law ‘the Negro Reduction Act’.

亚历山大认为，要实现种族平等，充分就业必不可少。由于黑人工人是“最后被雇用和最先被解雇的群体”，因此他们在经济衰退中遭受的损失最大。充分就业也改善了种族态度。亚历山大认为，充分就业通过减轻白人工人“对经济竞争的恐惧”来加强民主。亚历山大认为，在强劲的劳动力市场中，政治煽动家不太可能找到立足点。她走在了时代的前面：最近的研究表明，经济危机增加了右翼民粹主义者赢得选举的可能性。¹⁵

To achieve racial equality, Alexander argued, full employment was essential. Because Black workers were ‘the last to be hired and the first to be fired’, they suffered most in an economic slump. Full employment also improved racial attitudes. Alexander argued that full employment strengthened democracy by ameliorating white workers’ ‘fears of economic rivalry’. In a strong labour market, Alexander contended, political demagogues were less likely to find a foothold. She was ahead of her time: recent research shows that economic crises raise the odds that right-wing populists win office.¹⁵

8 第二次世界大战和布雷顿森林体系

World War II and Bretton Woods

随着法西斯主义的兴起，盟军错误地试图安抚希特勒。1938 年的《慕尼黑协定》允许德国吞并苏台德地区。1939 年的《苏德互不侵犯条约》促进了德国入侵东欧。经济因素也很重要。日本的帝国野心部分是其缺乏国内能源储备的产物。恶性通货膨胀和第一次世界大战赔款的负担引起了许多德国人的不满。德国入侵俄罗斯代表着试图控制黑海和里海之间地区的额外石油储备。¹

AS FASCISM ROSE, THE ALLIES mistakenly attempted to appease Hitler. The 1938 Munich Agreement allowed Germany to annexe the Sudetenland. The 1939 Nazi–Soviet Pact facilitated Germany’s invasion of Eastern Europe. Economic factors mattered too. Japan’s imperial ambitions were partly a product of its lack of domestic energy reserves. Hyperinflation and the burden of World War I reparations caused resentment among many Germans. Germany’s invasion of Russia represented an attempt to gain control of additional oil reserves in the region between the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea.¹

经济学还表明，第二次世界大战的结果可以从基本面预测出来。就像美国内战和第一次世界大战一样，一开始的资源平衡非常有利于最终的胜利者。与轴心国（德国、意大利、日本及其盟友）相比，同盟国（英国、法国及其盟友）的人口是轴心国的两倍多，领土面积增加了七倍，综合收入增加了 40％。²

Economics also suggests that the outcome of World War II could have been predicted from the fundamentals. Just as with the US Civil War and World War I, the balance of resources at the outset strongly favoured the eventual winner. Compared with the Axis powers (Germany, Italy, Japan and their allies), the Allied powers (the United Kingdom, France and their allies) had more than twice as many people, more than seven times as much territory, and a combined income that was 40 per cent higher.²

德国早期的胜利很大程度上归功于埃尔温·隆美尔等将军的技能，以及闪电战和机动战等战术。正如一位经济史学家所说，“波兰人、荷兰人、比利时人、法国人、南斯拉夫人、希腊人、英国人、美国人和俄罗斯人，所有与纳粹对抗的人，无论是在战术上还是在行动上，都或多或少地失败了，至少在最初的遭遇战中是如此，在随后的多次遭遇战中也是如此。”³

Germany’s early victories owed much to the skill of generals such as Erwin Rommel, and tactics such as blitzkrieg (lightning war) and bewegungskrieg (manoeuvre warfare). As one economic historian puts it, ‘Everybody – the Poles, the Dutch, the Belgians, the French, the Yugoslavs, the Greeks, the British, the Americans, and the Russians – who faced the Nazis failed more or less equally, both tactically and operationally, at least in their initial encounters, and in no small number of subsequent encounters.’³

然而第二次世界大战中并没有决定性的战役。⁴不是珍珠港，不是中途岛，不是斯大林格勒，也不是库尔斯克。这场战争主要是工业生产的较量，盟军拥有更多的资源。即使在战争中期也是如此，因为虽然希特勒的德国已经吞并了欧洲大部分地区，但美国和苏联已经加入了盟军一方的冲突。1942 年，盟军在人员、领土和收入方面仍然保持着决定性的优势。航空母舰体现了这种差异：尽管日本很早就掌握了它们的战略价值，但盟军建造了战争期间生产的十分之九的航空母舰。

Yet there were no decisive battles in World War II.⁴ Not Pearl Harbor. Not Midway. Not Stalingrad. Not Kursk. The war was primarily a contest of industrial production, and the Allied powers had more resources at their disposal. This was true even midway through the war, because while Hitler’s Germany had annexed much of Europe, the United States and the Soviet Union had joined the conflict on the side of the Allies. In 1942, the Allied powers still retained a decisive advantage in people, territory and income. Aircraft carriers illustrate the differential: although Japan grasped their strategic value early, the Allied powers built nine-tenths of the carriers produced during the war.

参战国在其经济中为战争所投入的力度上存在差异。⁵意大利从未将超过四分之一的经济投入到二战中，而日本在巅峰时期将超过四分之三的经济投入到军事中。英国和俄罗斯盟军也成功将一半以上的产出用于战争，而美国则将其经济的五分之二用于战争。总而言之，这给同盟国带来了巨大的优势。在军火生产方面，同盟国生产的步枪、坦克、飞机、迫击炮和军舰至少是盟军的两倍。轴心国在火力上完全处于劣势。

The combatant nations differed in how much of their economy they devoted to the war effort.⁵ Italy never devoted more than one-quarter of its economy to World War II, while at its peak Japan was devoting more than three-quarters of its economy to the military. The United Kingdom and Russia also managed to deliver more than half of their output to the war, while the United States devoted two-fifths of its economy to the war. Put together, this gave a substantial advantage to the Allied powers. When it came to the production of munitions, the Allied powers produced at least twice as many rifles, tanks, aircraft, mortars and warships. The Axis powers were literally outgunned.

在整个战争过程中，第二次世界大战造成的经济损失比第一次世界大战更为严重，这主要是因为在战争期间杀戮技术取得了长足进步。在空中，第一次世界大战的双翼机和齐柏林飞艇发挥的作用相对较小，而第二次世界大战中，轰炸机中队用燃烧弹（最终是原子弹）摧毁城市。在海洋上，第二次世界大战以航空母舰为特色，使敌对舰艇之间可以进行从未见过面的海战。远程轰炸机、喷气式战斗机、自导鱼雷和巡航导弹都是从第二次世界大战中诞生的。总的来说，第二次世界大战造成的死亡人数是第一次世界大战的三倍。

Over the course of the war, the economic damage of World War II was more devastating than that of World War I, largely because the technology of killing had advanced so much in the intervening years. In the air, World War I’s biplanes and zeppelins played a relatively minor role, while World War II saw squadrons of bombers devastate cities with incendiary – and ultimately atomic – bombs. On the oceans, World War II featured aircraft carriers, enabling naval battles in which the opposing ships never saw one another. Long-range bombers, jet fighters, self-guiding torpedoes and cruise missiles all emerged from World War II. All up, World War II claimed three times as many lives as World War I had done.

除了新发明外，第二次世界大战还带来了计量经济学的进步——将统计技术应用于经济问题。一个实际问题是如何最好地加强轰炸机，以增加它们在敌方火力下存活的几率。天真的同事们曾查看过返航飞机的底部，发现机尾等部位受到不成比例的损坏，于是建议加固这些部位。但来自匈牙利的犹太难民、数学家亚伯拉罕·沃尔德 (Abraham Wald) 意识到，他们只看到了部分情况。他们看到的是轰炸机在承受多大的损坏后仍能返回家园。没有一架轰炸机在机头受损的情况下返回，这表明正是像这样的地方需要额外的加固。瓦尔德的技术至今仍被计量经济学家使用。

As well as new inventions, World War II brought advances in econometrics – the application of statistical techniques to economic questions. One practical concern was how best to reinforce bombers to increase their chances of surviving enemy fire. Naive colleagues had looked at the underside of returning aircraft and, seeing disproportionate damage to places like the tail, had suggested reinforcing those spots. But mathematician Abraham Wald, a Jewish refugee from Hungary, recognised that they were only seeing part of the picture. What they saw was the damage that a bomber could sustain and still return home. The absence of returning bombers with nose damage suggested that it was precisely spots like this that required additional reinforcement. Wald’s techniques continue to be used by econometricians today.

$图像$

数据中缺少什么？每架被击落的飞机。

What was missing from the data? Every plane that had been shot down.

艺术作品由 Trevor Bragdon / Pitch + Persuade 创作。

Artwork by Trevor Bragdon / Pitch + Persuade.

第二次世界大战后的和平更加持久，部分原因是各国吸取了上次冲突的教训。通过马歇尔计划，美国向西欧提供了 130 亿美元，相当于该地区年经济产出的 3% 左右。⁶在德国和日本，占领国都非常重视复兴，结果两国都在一代人之内成为了主要的工业强国。

The peace that followed World War II was more enduring partly because countries learnt the lessons of the previous conflict. Through the Marshall Plan, the United States provided US$13 billion to Western Europe, equating to around 3 per cent of the region’s annual economic output.⁶ In Germany and Japan, the occupying powers placed considerable emphasis on restoration, with the result that both became major industrial powers within a generation.

经济学家在建立维持和平的国际经济架构方面发挥了核心作用。1944 年，新罕布什尔州布雷顿森林会议汇集了所有 44 个同盟国的代表。这是一次奇特的聚会。凯恩斯代表了英国希望避免一战后的经济失误。美国派出哈里·德克斯特·怀特（Harry Dexter White），据说他是俄国间谍。法国派出皮埃尔·孟戴斯·弗朗斯（Pierre Mendès France），这无疑为写名片的人省了不少事。

Economists played a central role in building an international economic architecture that would sustain peace. In 1944, a conference in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, brought together representatives from all forty-four Allied nations. It was a curious gathering. Keynes represented the United Kingdom, hoping to avoid the economic mistakes that had been made after World War I. The United States was represented by Harry Dexter White, who is rumoured to have been a Russian spy. France was represented by Pierre Mendès France, which must have made things easy for those writing out the name cards.

这次不太可能的会议达成了一项结束经济孤立主义的协议，并承认贸易和资本流动将使世界更加富裕和稳定。布雷顿森林体系促成了世界银行的成立，该银行旨在提高最贫穷国家的生活水平，以及国际货币基金组织的成立，该基金旨在帮助各国避免金融危机。布雷顿森林体系部分恢复了金本位制，1 美元与 1/35 盎司黄金挂钩，其他国家的货币与美元挂钩。然而，将纸币兑换成黄金的能力仅限于官方国际交易，在实践中很少发生。

Out of this unlikely gathering came an agreement to end economic isolationism, and an acceptance that trade and capital flows would make for a richer and more stable world. Bretton Woods led to the creation of the World Bank, which sought to raise living standards in the poorest nations, and the International Monetary Fund, which aimed to help countries avoid financial crises. The Bretton Woods Agreement partially restored the gold standard, with one US dollar fixed to 1/35th of an ounce of gold, and other countries’ currencies pegged to the US dollar. However, the ability to convert banknotes into gold was restricted to official international transactions, and rarely occurred in practice.

战后时期的宏观经济学家继续在凯恩斯的工作基础上发展。其中一位传奇人物是比尔·菲利普斯。菲利普斯出生于新西兰的一个奶牛场，曾当过电影院经理、金矿工和鳄鱼猎人，后来接受工程师培训并参加了二战，在日本集中营待了三年。在监狱里，菲利普斯向其他囚犯学习中文，并帮助制造了一台秘密收音机。战后，他进入伦敦经济学院学习社会学，但很快转到经济学。1949 年，菲利普斯在女房东的车库里工作，用水泵建立了经济的液压模型。⁷该机器最初是作为教学辅助工具设计的，结果证明它擅长模拟潜在政策变化的影响——显示政府支出和税收的变化如何影响收入的“循环流动”。大约建造了十几台，其中一台位于剑桥大学，至今仍在运行。

Macroeconomists in the post-war years continued to build on the work of Keynes. One larger-than-life figure was Bill Phillips. Born on a New Zealand dairy farm, Phillips worked as a cinema manager, gold miner and crocodile hunter before training as an engineer and enlisting in World War II, where he spent three years in a Japanese concentration camp. While incarcerated, Phillips learnt Chinese from other prisoners, and helped build a secret radio. After the war, he enrolled to study sociology at the London School of Economics, but soon switched to economics. In 1949, working in his landlady’s garage, Phillips used water pumps to build a hydraulic model of the economy.⁷ Designed initially as a teaching aid, the machine turned out to be good at simulating the effect of potential policy changes – showing how changing government spending and taxation affects the ‘circular flow’ of income. Around a dozen were built, including one at the University of Cambridge that remains operational to this day.

比尔·菲利普斯和他的货币国民收入模拟计算机（MONIAC）。

Bill Phillips with his Monetary National Income Analogue Computer (MONIAC).

摘自尼古拉斯·巴尔 (Nicholas Barr) 的《菲利普斯机器项目》，伦敦政治经济学院杂志，1988 年 6 月，第 75 期，第 3 页。图片来自 Wikimedia Commons。

From ‘The Phillips Machine Project’ by Nicholas Barr, LSE Magazine, June 1988, no. 75, p.3. Image via Wikimedia Commons.

凯恩斯模型的进步是由麻省理工学院的保罗·萨缪尔森发展起来的。萨缪尔森的“实用凯恩斯主义”认为，价格和工资的粘性阻碍了充分就业纯粹通过市场实现，为政府在危机时期的干预提供了经济依据。虽然经济学家往往通过文章而不是书籍进行交流，但教科书很重要，而萨缪尔森 1948 年的教科书是其中最重要的一本。萨缪尔森认为凯恩斯的《就业、利息和货币通论》是“天才之作”，但充满矛盾且写得不好。萨缪尔森认为数学是经济学的自然语言，并着手将凯恩斯的思想形式化为数学——在此过程中帮助经济学从讲故事转向方程式。正如萨缪尔森心满意足地指出的那样，“我不在乎谁来制定国家的法律，只要我能编写教科书就行。”

Advances on Keynes’s models were developed by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Paul Samuelson. Samuelson’s ‘pragmatic Keynesianism’ argued that sticky prices and wages prevented full employment from being achieved purely through the market, providing an economic justification for government intervention in times of crisis. While economists tend to communicate mostly through articles rather than books, textbooks are important, and Samuelson’s 1948 textbook is one of the most important of them all. Samuelson thought that Keynes’s book The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money was ‘a work of genius’, yet riddled with contradictions and poorly written. Samuelson believed that mathematics was the natural language of economics and set about formalising Keynes’s ideas mathematically – in the process helping to move economics away from storytelling and towards equations. As Samuelson contentedly noted, ‘I do not care who writes the nation’s laws, so long as I can write its textbooks.’

萨缪尔森教科书中强调的理念之一是比较优势，这是大卫·李嘉图在一个多世纪前阐明的原理。比较优势表明，当两个国家相互贸易时，双方都会受益。差异是贸易得以进行的原因。各国进行贸易是因为某些作物在世界不同地区生长得更好，因为一些国家已经掌握了生产特定产品的诀窍，或者因为较低的工资水平使劳动密集型产品的制造成本更低。巴西咖啡、瑞士钟表和孟加拉国纺织品都代表了出口中体现的差异。在职业生涯的后期，萨缪尔森将比较优势描述为社会科学中既正确又不明显的命题的最佳例子。

One of the ideas emphasised in Samuelson’s textbook was comparative advantage, a principle articulated by David Ricardo more than a century earlier. Comparative advantage shows that when two countries trade with one another, both stand to benefit. Difference is what makes trade work. Countries trade because certain crops grow better in different parts of the world, because some nations have developed a knack of producing particular products, or because lower wage levels make labour-intensive goods cheaper to manufacture. Brazilian coffee, Swiss clocks and Bangladeshi textiles each represent a difference embodied in an export. Later in his career, Samuelson described comparative advantage as the best example in the social sciences of a proposition that is both true and not obvious.

20 世纪 30 年代，《斯姆特霍利关税法》引发了保护主义的兴起和贸易量的下降，许多政策制定者已经忘记了这一见解。但二战后，贸易又开始增长。1947 年，占全球贸易总额五分之四以上的国家签署了《关税与贸易总协定》。他们同意削减 45,000 项关税，影响到 100 亿美元的世界贸易。

Many policymakers had forgotten this insight in the 1930s, as the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act sparked a rise in protectionism and a fall in trade volumes. But after World War II, trade began to grow again. In 1947, countries representing more than four-fifths of global trade signed up to the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade. Between them, they agreed to reduce 45,000 tariffs, affecting US$10 billion of world trade.

第二次世界大战是福利国家扩张的强大推动力。各国政府提高了税收，实行食品和衣物配给制，并向家庭提供补助。大萧条和战场上的苦难让许多人相信，和平结束后，是时候建立一个更加公平的社会了。在英国，经济学家珍妮特和威廉·贝弗里奇于 1942 年发表了一份重要报告，确定了五大罪恶——肮脏、无知、匮乏、懒惰和疾病——并提出了一项国家保险计划，为失业、生病或年老的人提供保障。贝弗里奇报告所依据的理念与俾斯麦的改革不同：俾斯麦的改革是关于个人缴费，而贝弗里奇的方法则涉及一项全民政府计划。对这种社会计划的需求如此强烈，以至于英国人民在 1945 年将丘吉尔政府赶下台，选出了工党政府，该政府承诺建立社会安全网，为其公民“从摇篮到坟墓”提供保障。

World War II was a powerful spur in the expansion of the welfare state. Governments raised taxes, introduced rationing of food and clothing and provided family payments. The memory of the Depression and the suffering on the battlefield led many to believe that after the peace it was time to build a fairer society. In the United Kingdom, economists Janet and William Beveridge produced a key report in 1942 that identified five evils – squalor, ignorance, want, idleness and disease – and proposed a national insurance scheme that would provide for those who were unemployed, sick or elderly. The philosophy underpinning the Beveridge Report differed from Bismarck’s reforms: where Bismarck’s was about individual contributions, the Beveridge approach entailed a universal government program. So powerful was the demand for this kind of social program that the British people threw the Churchill government out of office in 1945, electing a Labour government that promised a social safety net that would provide for its citizens ‘from the cradle to the grave’.

福利国家的扩张与政府在经济中的作用的增加相一致。在发达国家中，政府在经济中的份额从1937 年的平均值为 24%，到 1960 年则上升到 28%。⁸二战结束后，英国将铁路、煤矿、电力供应行业、大部分钢铁行业和英格兰银行收归国有。法国将与纳粹占领者合作的雷诺汽车公司、天然气和电力行业以及大部分银行和保险业收归国有。新西兰将新西兰银行收归国有。瑞典完成了铁路国有化进程。

This expansion of the welfare state paralleled an increase in the role of government in the economy. Across advanced nations, the government’s share of the economy grew from an average of 24 per cent in 1937 to 28 per cent in 1960.⁸ After the end of World War II, the United Kingdom nationalised its railways, coal mines, electricity supply industry, much of the iron and steel sector and the Bank of England. France nationalised the car company Renault, which had collaborated with Nazi occupiers, as well as the gas and electricity industry and most of the banking and insurance sectors. New Zealand nationalised the Bank of New Zealand. Sweden concluded the process of nationalising its railways.

在发达国家，政府作用的增强反映在税收收入的增加上。二战前，许多国家的普通工人不缴纳所得税。二战后，所得税范围扩大到覆盖大多数工人。这得益于现收现付制的引入，该制度要求雇主扣除所得税并将其上缴给政府。工人总能查明自己缴纳了多少税款，但如果他们根本没看到这笔钱，他们就不太可能会因为失去这笔钱而感到不满。

Across the advanced world, the increasing role of government was reflected in a higher tax take. Prior to World War II, the average worker in many countries did not pay income tax. World War II saw income taxes expanded to cover most workers. This was facilitated by the introduction of pay-as-you-go taxation, which required employers to deduct income taxes and remit them to the government. Workers could always find out how much tax they had paid, but were less likely to resent losing the money if they never saw it in the first place.

9 光荣的三十年？

The Glorious Thirty?

人生最令人惊奇的一点就是，它很大程度上是由运气决定的。当你的父母结合时，造就你的精子和卵子结合的几率不到百万分之一。在世界范围内，收入差异的大部分是由一个人的出生国和父母的社会地位决定的。¹除非你认为你可以选择你的父母，否则这也是运气。

ONE OF THE STRIKING THINGS about life is how much of it is determined by luck. At the moment your parents got together, the odds that the particular sperm and ovum that created you would join up was less than one in a million. Worldwide, most of the differences in income are determined by a person’s country of birth and the social position of their parents.¹ Unless you think you got to pick your parents, that’s luck too.

在就业市场中，运气无处不在。在经济衰退期间完成高中学业的年轻人会发现找工作更加困难——这种“创伤”效应可能会持续十年甚至更久。一些工人选择了有前途的职业，却发现技术让他们失业了。当小镇上的一家大公司破产时，几乎不可能每个人都在同一地区找到工作。残疾的不幸——从先天畸形到工伤——会使一个人难以挣到足够的钱来养活自己。而且一个人有可能活不到他们的寿命比他们的积蓄所能维持的时间还要长——从享受更多年光荣生活的角度来看，这是一个幸运的结果，但在一个不为老年人提供保障的社会中，这是一个不幸的结果。

In the job market, luck is all around us. A young person who finishes high school during a recession will find it harder to get a job – a ‘scarring’ effect that can persist for a decade or more. Some workers pick promising careers, only to find that technology has made them jobless. When a large firm in a small town goes bust, it can be near-impossible for everyone to find work in the same area. There’s the misfortune of disability – from congenital anomalies to workplace injuries – that can make it difficult for a person to earn enough to support themselves. And there’s the possibility that a person lives longer than their savings will last – a lucky outcome in terms of enjoying more years, but an unlucky one in a society that doesn’t provide for its elderly.

战后时期，福利制度和税收制度将财富从幸运者转移到不幸者。所得税是高度累进的，这意味着高收入者要缴纳更高比例的收入。披头士乐队的歌曲《收税员》中，收税员“给你一份”，“给我十九份”。他们并没有夸大其词。当时，乐队成员属于最高纳税等级，因此要缴纳 95% 的附加税。超过这个门槛，乐队每赚 20 美元，就有 19 美元要纳税。几年后，滚石乐队为了避税而离开英国，并将专辑命名为《主街上的流亡者》。

In the post-war era, redistribution from the lucky to the unlucky occurred through both the welfare system and the tax system. Income taxes were highly progressive – meaning that top earners paid a higher percentage of their income. The Beatles song ‘Taxman’ had the collector giving ‘one for you’ and keeping ‘nineteen for me’. They weren’t exaggerating. At that time, members of the band were in the top tax bracket, which made them subject to a 95 per cent supertax. Above that threshold, nineteen out of every twenty dollars the band made was paid in tax. Some years later, the Rolling Stones decamped from Britain to avoid tax, calling the resulting album Exile on Main St.

在劳动力市场，工会已成为一股日益强大的力量，几乎影响到工作生活的方方面面。工会运作的方式可能截然不同。在瑞典，工会联合会与中央雇主机构谈判达成全国工资协议。在澳大利亚，工会在劳资法庭上就工资案件进行辩论。在美国，工会直接与公司管理层谈判。在仍受殖民统治的国家，工会往往是民族独立运动和争取更大地方控制权运动的先锋。在世界各地，病假、假日假、周末加班费、安全标准、反歧视法、工作保障和薪酬本身都由工会决定。无论你是否是工会会员，如果工会从未存在过，你的工作可能会有很大不同。

In the workforce, unions had become an increasingly powerful force, affecting virtually every aspect of working life. The way unions operated could be strikingly different. In Sweden, trade union federations negotiated national wage agreements with central employer bodies. In Australia, unions argued wage cases before industrial tribunals. In the United States, unions bargained directly with company management. In countries that were still ruled by colonial powers, unions were often at the vanguard of national independence movements and campaigns for greater local control. Across the world, sick leave, holiday leave, weekend pay loadings, safety standards, anti-discrimination laws, job security and pay itself have all been shaped by unions. Whether or not you are a union member, it is likely that your job would look quite different if unions had never existed.

工会组织发起活动争取更高的工资、更安全的工作条件和反歧视法。

Trade unions campaigned for higher wages, safer working conditions and anti-discrimination laws.

人民历史博物馆。

People’s History Museum.

战后几十年，工会在许多发达国家蓬勃发展。到 20 世纪 70 年代，经合组织发达国家中三分之一的员工都是工会会员（如今，这一数字不到六分之一）。²战后时期工会的力量在一定程度上取决于经济结构。一种思考工会化的方式是，员工在工作场所组织起来，雇主在建立新工作场所之间展开竞争。这有助于解释为什么工厂和公共部门的工会化率往往高于初创企业。在许多国家，强大的制造业为工会组织提供了沃土，这反过来又确保了这些工作的良好工资。在 20 世纪 50 年代和 60 年代，制造业为受过少量正规教育的工人提供了一条进入中产阶级的道路。

The post-war decades saw unions grow strongly in many advanced nations. By the 1970s, one in three employees in the OECD group of advanced nations were union members (today, the figure is less than one in six).² The strength of unions in the post-war era was partly a function of the structure of the economy. One way to think about unionisation is as a contest between employees to organise together across a workplace, and employers to establish new workplaces. This helps explain why unionisation rates tend to be higher in factories and the public sector than in start-up enterprises. In many nations, a strong manufacturing sector proved fertile ground for union organising, which in turn ensured good wages in these jobs. During the 1950s and 1960s, manufacturing offered a pathway to the middle class for workers with little formal education.

然而，随着学业完成率的提高和高等教育的普及，许多工人在此期间接受的正是正规教育。这是战后几十年许多发达国家不平等现象减少的主要因素。一种不平等理论认为，不平等取决于教育和技术的相对增长。³如果技术进步而教育停滞不前，社会就会变得更加不平等。当教育水平增长速度快于新技术出现的速度时，社会就会变得更加平等。根据这一理论，减少不平等的最好方法是确保每个人都能接受良好的教育。

Yet formal education was just what many workers were acquiring during this period, as school completion rates rose and tertiary education became increasingly common. This was a major factor in the reduction of inequality that occurred in many advanced nations during the post-war decades. One theory of inequality is that it depends on the relative growth in education and technology.³ If education stagnates while technology advances, society tends to become more unequal. When the level of education grows faster than new technologies emerge, society becomes more equal. The best way of reducing inequality, according to this theory, is by ensuring that everyone gets a great education.

另一个关于不平等的宏大理论——与教育和技术竞赛的理念并不矛盾——关注经济增长率 (g) 和资本投资回报率 (r) 之间的差异。土地和公司股权等资本资产往往偏向最富裕的人（目前最富有的 10% 的人拥有全球 76% 的财富），因此高资本回报率会不成比例地惠及最富有的人。⁴法国经济学家托马斯·皮凯蒂在《21世纪资本论》一书中提出，当r>g时，不平等现象就会加剧。他认为，这是人类事务的正常状态。

Another grand theory of inequality – not inconsistent with the idea of a race between education and technology – focuses on the difference between the rate of economic growth (g) and the rate of return on capital investment (r). Capital assets such as land and corporate equity tend to be skewed towards the most affluent (the top 10 per cent today own 76 per cent of global wealth), so a high return on capital disproportionately benefits the richest.⁴ In his book Capital in the Twenty-First Century, French economist Thomas Piketty proposed that when r > g, inequality rises. This, he argued, is the normal state of human affairs.

相比之下，战后几十年，许多发达国家的资本回报率大大低于其长期平均水平，而经济增长率显著高于历史平均水平。当 r < g 时，许多高收入国家的不平等现象有所下降。在发达国家，就业机会充足，工资增长速度快于利润增长速度，工厂车间的收入增长速度快于办公室。

In the post-war decades, by contrast, the rate of return on capital in many advanced countries was dramatically below its long-run average, while the rate of economic growth was significantly above its historic average. With r < g, inequality in many high-income countries fell. Across the advanced world, jobs were plentiful, wages rose faster than profits, and earnings rose faster on the factory floor than in the corner office.

其影响可能非常广泛，但每个国家都为自己的成功感到自豪。法国人将战后的三十年称为“辉煌三十年” ，意大利人称之为“经济繁荣”，西班牙人称之为“西班牙经济奇迹”，德国人称之为“莱茵河奇迹”。我自己的研究表明，选民更有可能重新选举那些实现高经济增长的政府，但选民们并不擅长区分那些在世界经济强劲时幸运地执政的政府和那些足够有能力超越全球平均水平的政府。⁵

The effect may have been widespread, but each nation took pride in its success. The French called the three post-war decades les Trente Glorieuses. The Italians referred to il boom economico. The Spanish dubbed it el milagro económico español (the Spanish economic miracle). Germans called it das Wunder am Rhein (the Miracle on the Rhine). My own research shows that voters were more likely to re-elect governments that had delivered high economic growth, but that voters were not very good at distinguishing between governments that were lucky enough to hold office when the world economy was strong and those that were skilful enough to outperform the global average.⁵

辉煌的几十年不仅创造了幸运的政治家。在那个时代，许多欧洲人第一次拥有汽车，许多美国人购买了第一台冰箱。电视机和唱片机大量涌现。财富均等化的主要推动力之一是房屋所有权的普及。例如，第一次世界大战结束时，英国 23% 的住房存量为自住房。到 20 世纪 70 年代末，这一数字已上升至近 58%。⁶

The glorious decades didn’t just create lucky politicians. This was the era when many Europeans got cars for the first time and many Americans bought their first freezer. Televisions and record players proliferated. One of the chief drivers of wealth equalisation was the spread of home ownership. For example, when World War I came to an end, 23 per cent of the British housing stock was owner-occupied. By the late 1970s, the figure had risen to nearly 58 per cent.⁶

战后几十年，女性也大量进入有偿劳动力市场。非经济学家经常将此归因于社会规范的演变。但经济学家也指出了技术和政策的作用。电炉、真空吸尘器清洁器、自来水、冰箱和洗衣机简化了家务劳动，改变了许多女性的生活。避孕药让女性可以更好地控制何时生孩子。正如克劳迪娅·戈尔丁等经济学家指出的那样，这反过来又为女性投资教育创造了更强大的动力。

The post-war decades also saw the large-scale entry of women into the paid workforce. Non-economists often attribute this to evolving social norms. But economists point also to the role of technology and policy. Electric stoves, vacuum cleaners, running water, refrigerators and washing machines simplified household work, transforming many women’s lives. The contraceptive pill allowed women greater control over when to have children. As economists such as Claudia Goldin have pointed out, this in turn created a stronger incentive for women to invest in education.

对于企业家来说，特许经营创造了一种新的混合模式——既可以创办一家独立的小企业，也可以购买一家大公司的股份。1953 年，理查德·麦当劳和莫里斯·麦当劳在亚利桑那州凤凰城出售了他们的第一家特许经营店。次年，干劲十足的商人雷·克罗克利用特许经营模式，最终将麦当劳发展成为世界上最大的连锁餐厅。

For entrepreneurs, franchising created a new hybrid – a cross between setting up an independent small business and buying shares in a large firm. In 1953, Richard and Maurice McDonald sold their first franchise in Phoenix, Arizona. The following year, hard-driving businessman Ray Kroc used the franchising model to eventually grow McDonald’s into the largest restaurant chain in the world.

20 世纪 50 年代早期的麦当劳餐厅。

An early McDonald’s restaurant from the 1950s.

国会图书馆卡罗尔·M·海史密斯档案馆。图片来自 Wikimedia Commons。

Carol M. Highsmith Archive, Library of Congress. Image via Wikimedia Commons.

酒店、超市和房地产中介也是特许经营的重要用户。该模式允许门店受益来自全国性的广告宣传活动和标准化生产流程，但也将大部分风险转嫁到了小型特许经营者身上，他们在与大型特许经营者打交道时可能处于谈判劣势。

Hotels, supermarkets and real estate agents are also significant users of franchising. The model allows outlets to benefit from national advertising campaigns and standardised production processes, but also loads much of the risk onto the small franchisee, who may be at a negotiating disadvantage when dealing with the large franchisor.

新技术的采用产生了意想不到的效果。1955 年，美国每 50 个家庭中就有 1 个拥有空调。到 1980 年，大多数家庭都拥有空调。空调迅速在全球普及（目前全球空调数量已超过 20 亿台）。这项技术使许多发达国家的人口大规模迁往赤道。美国人移居佛罗里达州。澳大利亚人移居昆士兰州。新加坡、迪拜和多哈等赤道和沙漠城市蓬勃发展。空调彻底改变了世界。⁷

The uptake of new technologies created unexpected effects. In 1955, one in fifty US homes had an air conditioner. By 1980, a majority did. Air conditioning spread rapidly around the world (there are now more than two billion air conditioners globally). The technology enabled a mass migration towards the equator in many advanced countries. Americans moved to Florida. Australians moved to Queensland. Equatorial and desert cities such as Singapore, Dubai and Doha boomed. Air conditioning literally rearranged the world.⁷

经济学向其他学科的传播可以追溯到这个时代。有一天，经济学家加里·贝克尔发现自己开会迟到了。⁸他意识到，如果他合法停车，他就会迟到。只有非法停车，他才能准时参加会议。贝克尔计算了被抓的概率，将其乘以罚款，并决定预期成本小于准时参加会议的预期收益。这段经历促使他撰写了一篇开创性的文章：《罪与罚：一种经济方法》。⁹贝克尔认为，与其假设罪犯是愚蠢的，为什么不想想如果他们像其他人一样试图最大限度地提高自己的福祉，他们会如何表现呢？这项研究的一个含义是，威慑取决于惩罚和被发现的几率。如果潜在的罪犯不看重长期利益，那么增加警力与增加监禁刑期相比，巡逻可能是减少街头犯罪更具成本效益的方式。

The spread of economics into other disciplines can be traced to this era. One day, economist Gary Becker found himself running late for a meeting.⁸ If he parked legally, he realised, he would be late. Only by illegally parking could he arrive at the meeting on time. Becker calculated the chance of getting caught, multiplied it by the fine, and decided that the expected cost was smaller than the expected benefit of getting to the meeting on time. The experience led him to produce a seminal article: ‘Crime and punishment: An economic approach’.⁹ Rather than assuming that criminals are stupid, Becker reasoned, why not think about how they would behave if they were trying to maximise their wellbeing like everyone else? One implication of this work is that deterrence depends on both the penalty and the odds of detection. If potential criminals place little value on the long term, then doubling police patrols might be a more cost-effective way to reduce street crime than doubling jail sentences.

贝克尔的工作还将经济学工具引入到歧视研究中。¹⁰他推断，种族主义雇主最终将付出更大的工资单。通过拒绝雇用少数族裔求职者，种族主义雇主正在缩小他们愿意雇用的人员范围。因此，为了获得同样优秀的员工，他们最终将比非种族主义雇主支付更多。在竞争激烈的市场中，客户不会认同雇主的偏见，种族主义者将导致利润降低。贝克尔的研究表明，更激烈的竞争将给种族主义雇主带来经济压力——为他们提供经济激励，让他们选择最适合这份工作的候选人。其他形式的歧视也是如此，包括对妇女、老年工人、宗教少数群体、残疾人和 LGBTIQA+ 人群的歧视。单靠竞争并不能消除歧视，但它可以发挥积极作用。

Becker’s work also brought the tools of economics to the study of discrimination.¹⁰ Racist employers, he reasoned, will end up paying a bigger wage bill. By refusing to hire minority job applicants, racist employers are narrowing the pool of people they are willing to employ. So to get the same calibre of employees, they will end up paying more than a non-racist employer. In a competitive market, in which customers do not share the employer’s prejudices, being a racist will lead to lower profits. Becker’s work implies that greater competition will put the economic squeeze on racist employers – providing an economic incentive for them to choose the best candidate for the job. The same holds for other forms of discrimination, including against women, older workers, religious minorities, people with disabilities and LGBTIQA+ people. Competition alone will not eliminate discrimination, but it can play a positive role.

在此期间，应用经济学也继续发展。一个关键领域是区分因果关系和相关性。穿大鞋的人往往更高，但穿大鞋不会让你长高。吃冰淇淋的人更容易晒伤，但在炎热的天气里放弃一份冷食并不能保护你免受皮肤癌的侵害。在经济学领域，确定外援对经济增长的影响（因为援助通常针对陷入困境的国家）或理清出口对公司业绩的影响（因为管理更好的公司通常具有更全球化的视野）是件棘手的事。

During this period, applied economics also continued to advance. One key area was in separating correlation from causation. People with big shoes tend to be taller, but wearing larger shoes won’t make you grow. People who eat ice cream are more likely to get sunburnt, but passing up a cold treat on a hot day won’t protect you from skin cancer. In the realm of economics, it is tricky to determine the impact of foreign aid on economic growth (since aid is often directed towards countries in distress), or to disentangle the impact of exporting on company performance (since better-managed firms often have a more global outlook).

集装箱

THE SHIPPING CONTAINER

20 世纪 50 年代初，码头上堆满了各种各样的纸箱、桶和板条箱。装船可能需要拖运钢丝卷、松散的木材、棉花包和橄榄桶。货物经常受损。工人经常受伤或死亡。把所有东西装上船可能需要几天时间。装卸船的费用有时占总运输成本的一半。对于许多商品来说，国际贸易是不可能的。

In the early 1950s, docks were covered with an assortment of cartons, drums and crates. Loading a ship might involve hauling coils of steel wire, loose pieces of timber, bales of cotton and barrels of olives. Cargo was routinely damaged. Workers were often injured or killed. Getting everything onto a ship could take days. The expense of loading and unloading ships sometimes accounted for half the total transport costs. For many goods, international trade was out of the question.

最大的船只可以运载超过 10,000 个集装箱。

The largest ships can carry over 10,000 containers.

apiguide/Shutterstock。

apiguide / Shutterstock.

现代集装箱的发明者是美国卡车企业家马尔科姆·麦克莱恩。1956 年 4 月 26 日，麦克莱恩将 58 个集装箱装上 SS Ideal X 号船，从新泽西开往德克萨斯州。他的集装箱每个角上方都有一个扭锁装置，可以使用起重机轻松移动集装箱。在接下来的几十年里，麦克莱恩和运输业的其他人士就规格进行了辩论，最终确定了一个标准。今天，世界上大多数集装箱的尺寸为 12.2 米长、2.4 米宽、2.6 米高。每个集装箱通常可承载 30 吨。现代集装箱船长达数百米，可承载数千个集装箱。装卸需要几个小时，由计算机系统管理，确保船舶始终保持稳定。

The inventor of the modern shipping container was US trucking entrepreneur Malcolm McLean. On 26 April 1956, McLean put fifty-eight containers aboard the SS Ideal X, and sailed them from New Jersey to Texas. His containers had a twistlock mechanism above each corner, allowing the containers to be easily moved using cranes. Over the coming decades, McLean and others in the transport industry debated the specifications, finally settling on a standard. Today, a majority of the world’s shipping containers measure 12.2 metres long by 2.4 metres wide by 2.6 metres high. Each container can typically carry 30 tonnes. Modern container ships are hundreds of metres long and carry thousands of containers. Loading or unloading takes a few hours, managed by computer systems that ensure the ship remains stable throughout.

标准化的集装箱运输大大降低了运费成本，几乎不值得考虑。标准化的钢箱让世界联系得更紧密。

The standardised shipping container has reduced freight costs so much that they barely factor. A standardised steel box brought the world closer together.

在实验室科学中，研究人员可以控制每个试管中的物质，但在现实世界中与人打交道时，事情就变得更加复杂了。然而，医学已经开始转向随机试验。第二次世界大战结束后不久，研究人员通过将结核病治疗和脊髓灰质炎疫苗与随机选择接受安慰剂的患者进行比较来测试它们。社会科学家看到了他们如何使用类似的技术。1962 年，随机政策试验向前迈出了重要一步，开始了两项测试早期儿童干预的社会实验。田纳西州的早期培训项目和密歇根州的佩里学前教育项目评估了高质量的早期儿童计划是否能为极度弱势的学龄前儿童带来改变。

In laboratory science, researchers have control over what is in each test tube, but things are messier when dealing with people in the real world. Yet medicine had begun to shift towards randomised trials. Shortly after the end of World War II, researchers tested tuberculosis treatments and the polio vaccine by comparing them against patients who had been randomly selected to receive a placebo. Social scientists saw how they could use similar techniques. In 1962, randomised policy trials took a significant step forward, with the commencement of two social experiments testing early childhood interventions. The Early Training Project in Tennessee and the Perry Preschool Project in Michigan evaluated whether high-quality early childhood programs could make a difference for extremely disadvantaged preschoolers.

佩里学前教育项目的随机试验显示，“项目”组和“无项目”对照组之间存在很大差异。

The Perry Preschool Project’s randomised trial showed large differences between the ‘program’ group and the ‘no program’ control group.

图 2 取自 Kathryn Cardarelli 和 Rachael S. Jackson于 2005 年 10 月在德克萨斯州达拉斯举行的 J. McDonald Williams 研究所第一届年会上发表的白皮书《教育政策作为健康促进》。

Fig. 2 taken from Kathryn Cardarelli and Rachael S. Jackson, Education Policy as Health Promotion, white paper presented at the First Annual Conference of the J. McDonald Williams Institute in Dallas, Texas, in October 2005.

等到参与者成年时，差异就很明显了，接受过早期干预的人比对照组的收入更高，逮捕率更低。这些项目不仅重塑了经济学家对儿童早期的看法，还促使人们对随机化作为一种区分相关性和因果关系的工具越来越感兴趣。

By the time the participants reached adulthood, the differences were clear, with those who had received early intervention recording higher incomes and lower arrest rates than their counterparts in the control group. These programs not only reshaped economists’ thinking about early childhood, but also contributed to the growing interest in randomisation as a tool to separate correlation from causation.

战后几十年，经济一体化不断加强。关税及贸易总协定成立后，各国于 1949 年、1951 年、1956 年、1962 年、1967 年、1979 年和 1994 年签署了重大关税协议。欧洲经济共同体于 1957 年成立，取消了六个创始成员国之间的所有关税，并在随后的几十年中稳步吸引更多成员国加入。如今，欧盟是世界上最重要的贸易集团，由 27 个国家和 4 亿多人口组成。¹¹它让小国人民享受到大民主国家人民认为理所当然的许多好处。卢森堡人口只有三分之二，但他们可以自由地在整个欧盟各地旅行、工作和贸易，而不必局限于自己这个小国提供的产品和机会。

Economic integration continued to increase during the post-war decades. Following the creation of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, countries signed significant tariff deals in 1949, 1951, 1956, 1962, 1967, 1979 and 1994. The European Economic Community was formed in 1957, removing all tariffs between its six founding members, and steadily attracting more members over the coming decades. Today, the European Union is the world’s most significant trading bloc, comprising twenty-seven countries and over 400 million people.¹¹ It allows people in smaller countries to enjoy many of the benefits that those in large democratic nations take for granted. There are only two-thirds of a million people in Luxembourg, but they have the freedom to travel, work and trade anywhere across the European Union, rather than being limited to the products and opportunities available in their own tiny nation.

曾经是超级富豪特权的航空旅行价格持续下跌。与其他项目相比，20 世纪 60 年代，机票价格下降了四分之一，而飞行速度却几乎翻了一番。¹² 1970 年，波音 747 诞生，这是第一架宽体飞机，可搭载约 400 名乘客。航班需求的不断增长导致了另一个问题：乘客经常在机场支付机票费用，信用卡处理速度缓慢导致一些旅客错过飞机。1970 年，美国航空、IBM 和美国运通在芝加哥奥黑尔机场首次试用磁条信用卡。该技术简化了航空旅行，并更广泛地改善了零售体验。它还鼓励了个人债务的增长。如今，印度的信用卡债务中位数超过 300 美元，中国超过 1,500 美元，美国超过 5,000 美元。¹³大量研究表明，当人们使用信用卡而不是现金支付时，他们更容易超支——做出事后后悔的决定。¹⁴

Air travel, once the privilege of the super-rich, continued to fall in price. Relative to other items, airfares dropped by one-quarter during the 1960s, while flying speeds almost doubled.¹² The year 1970 saw the introduction of the Boeing 747, the first wide-bodied aircraft, which could carry around 400 passengers. Growing demand for flights led to another problem: passengers often paid for their tickets at the airport, and slow credit card processing caused some travellers to miss their planes. In 1970, American Airlines, IBM and American Express conducted the first trial of a magnetic stripe credit card at Chicago’s O’Hare airport. The technology simplified air travel, and the retail experience more broadly. It also encouraged the growth of personal debt. Median credit card debts today exceed US$300 in India, US$1,500 in China and US$5,000 in the United States.¹³ A plethora of studies have shown that when people pay with credit cards rather than cash, they are more prone to overspending – making decisions that they later regret.¹⁴

我们后悔购买商品的原因之一是，许多商品在我们离开商店的那一刻就贬值了。1970 年，经济学家乔治·阿克洛夫解释了其中的原因。¹⁵假设二手车卖家知道他们拥有的是一辆高品质的汽车（“桃子”），还是一辆低质量的汽车（“次品”）。买家不知道这些信息。这导致次品卖家涌入市场。买家知道他们可能会买到次品，因此只愿意支付次品价格。因此桃子车主不会出售，二手车市场变成了“次品市场”。这项研究最终为阿克洛夫赢得了诺贝尔奖，但在发表前被三家期刊拒绝——这一事实继续为那些论文被拒的经济学家提供安慰（五大经济学期刊的拒稿率现在约为 95%）。¹⁶

One reason we may regret a purchase is that many goods drop in value the moment we leave the store. In 1970, economist George Akerlof explained why.¹⁵ Suppose sellers of used cars know whether they have a high-quality car (a ‘peach’), or a low-quality car (a ‘lemon’). Buyers do not know this information. This causes sellers of lemons to flood the market. Knowing they are likely to get a lemon, buyers are only willing to pay lemon prices. So peach owners don’t sell, and the used-car market becomes ‘a market for lemons’. The research, which would eventually earn Akerlof the Nobel Prize, was rejected by three journals before being published – a fact that continues to provide consolation to economists whose work is rejected (the rejection rate in the top five economics journals is now around 95 per cent).¹⁶

这一时期的繁荣并非普遍现象。1949 年毛泽东领导的中国共产党掌权后，许多商界领袖被处决。农业集体化，农民辛勤劳动的积极性被削弱，因为他们劳动的任何额外产出都必须在整个社区共享。1958 年，毛泽东发起了“大跃进”，这是一项疯狂的计划，鼓励农民在后院熔炉中生产钢铁。数百万个完好的锅碗瓢盆被熔化成了废铁。

The prosperity of this period wasn’t universal. After Mao Zedong’s Chinese Communist Party took power in 1949, many business leaders were executed. Agriculture was collectivised, reducing the incentive for peasant farmers to work hard because any additional produce from their labours had to be shared across the entire community. In 1958, Mao launched the ‘Great Leap Forward’, a madcap plan in which farmers were encouraged to produce iron and steel in backyard furnaces. Millions of perfectly good pots and pans were melted into scrap iron.

同年，毛泽东要求人们消灭麻雀，因为它们吃粮食。这场运动号召人们制造噪音，导致麻雀筋疲力尽而死。数百万只麻雀死亡，这意味着它们无法吃掉蝗虫，蝗虫吞噬了来年的大部分庄稼。最终，毛泽东从苏联进口了 25 万只麻雀来恢复生态系统。1957 年至 1961 年间，农作物损失导致稻米和小麦产量下降 40%，饥荒导致数千万人死亡。¹⁷

In the same year, Mao demanded that people eliminate sparrows, on the basis that they ate grain. The campaign called on people to make so much noise that the sparrows died of exhaustion. Millions of sparrows died, which meant that they were not around to eat the locusts that devoured much of the following year’s crop. Eventually, Mao imported 250,000 sparrows from the Soviet Union to restore the ecosystem. Crop losses contributed to a 40 per cent drop in rice and wheat output between 1957 and 1961, and a famine that killed tens of millions.¹⁷

更多的混乱即将来临。从 1966 年开始，文化大革命赋予了毛泽东的红卫兵权力，他们攻击科学家、学者和知识分子。大学和学校被关闭，数百万城市青年（包括未来的国家主席习近平）被送往农村生活——往往错过了任何正规教育。持续的政治斗争使政府的许多部门陷入混乱，导致了 1975 年板桥水库溃坝等悲剧的发生，至少有 500 万户房屋被淹，数万人丧生。毛泽东政策的结果可能会通过将中国经济与邻国的经济进行比较，可以看出这一点。在毛泽东执政期间，香港的实际人均收入增长速度是中国大陆的两倍。韩国的增长速度是中国的四倍。日本的增长速度是中国的五倍。¹⁸

More chaos was to come. Starting in 1966, the Cultural Revolution empowered Mao’s Red Guards, who attacked scientists, scholars and intellectuals. Universities and schools were closed, and millions of urban youths (including future president Xi Jinping) were sent to live in the countryside – often missing out on any formal education. Ongoing political struggles left many parts of the government in disarray, contributing to tragedies such as the 1975 Banqiao Dam failure, which inundated at least five million homes, and killed tens of thousands of people. The result of Mao’s policies can be seen by comparing the Chinese economy with its neighbours’. During Mao’s time in office, real per capita incomes in Hong Kong grew twice as fast as in mainland China. South Korea grew four times faster than China. Japan grew five times faster.¹⁸

在古巴，菲德尔·卡斯特罗于 1959 年领导了一场革命，推翻了政府，建立了共产主义独裁政权。政府接管了经济的重要部门，分割了大片土地，并将农业用地重新分配给农民。古巴革命后的十年间，生活水平停滞不前。卡斯特罗和他的革命同胞对经济学知之甚少。据一则（可能是杜撰的）故事称，在一次深夜领导会议上，卡斯特罗环顾四周，要求选出“一位优秀的经济学家”担任古巴国家银行行长。睡眼惺忪的切·格瓦拉举起了手。卡斯特罗很惊讶地说：“切，我不知道你是一位优秀的经济学家。”格瓦拉立即道歉：“哦，我以为你要求的是一位优秀的共产党员！”¹⁹

In Cuba, Fidel Castro led a revolution in 1959 that overthrew the government and established a communist dictatorship. The government took over significant sectors of the economy, broke up large landholdings, and redistributed agricultural land to peasants. Over the decade after the Cuban revolution, living standards flatlined. Castro and his fellow revolutionaries knew little about economics. According to one (possibly apocryphal) story, at a late-night meeting of the leadership, Castro looked around the room and asked for ‘a good economist’ to become president of the National Bank of Cuba. A sleepy Che Guevara raised his hand. Surprised, Castro said, ‘Che, I didn’t know you were a good economist.’ Guevera immediately apologised: ‘Oh, I thought you asked for a good communist!’¹⁹

在拉丁美洲的其他地方，一些国家开始远离全球参与。在阿根廷，经济学家劳尔·普雷维什提倡进口替代工业化，即低收入国家寻求建立一个以国内需求量很大的产品为基础的制造业部门。虽然比较优势贸易理论意味着各国应该专业化，但进口替代表明各国可以从建立多元化的制造业基础中受益。许多倡导者进口替代的支持者还支持提高关税以抑制进口。事实证明，当对用于生产的商品征收关税时，这种做法尤其有害，例如电弧焊机、拖拉机或办公设备。进口替代工业化并没有产生预期的经济收益，并在 20 世纪最后几十年被基本抛弃。

Elsewhere in Latin America, some countries began to shift away from global engagement. In Argentina, economist Raúl Prebisch advocated import substitution industrialisation, in which low-income countries sought to build up a manufacturing sector based around products for which there was substantial domestic demand. While comparative advantage trade theory implies that countries should specialise, import substitution suggests that countries could benefit from creating a diverse manufacturing base. Many advocates of import substitution also supported raising tariffs to discourage imports. This proved to be especially damaging when tariffs were imposed on goods that were themselves used for production, such as arc welders, tractors or office equipment. Import substitution industrialisation did not produce the hoped-for economic gains and would be largely abandoned by the final decades of the twentieth century.

第二次世界大战后的十年间，一波国家宣布独立，其中包括菲律宾、约旦、叙利亚、利比亚、柬埔寨、老挝和越南。最大的独立国家是印度，它果断放弃了资本主义。笨重的中央计划系统、猖獗的腐败和与世界贸易的缺乏促成了所谓的“印度式增长”。1947 年至 1964 年担任印度总理的贾瓦哈拉尔·尼赫鲁 (Jawaharlal Nehru) 受到他访问苏联时所见所闻的影响，决心政府应该严格监管经济。尼赫鲁发起了一系列“五年计划”，仿照苏联制度。印度的“许可证制度”意味着一家公司在开始运营之前必须满足多达八十个机构的要求。²⁰印度政府通常会决定生产什么产品以及以什么价格出售。这种方法限制了创新并降低了生产率的增长。

In the decade after World War II, a wave of nations declared independence, including the Philippines, Jordan, Syria, Libya, Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam. The largest was India, which turned decisively away from capitalism. A clunky centralised planning system, rampant corruption and a lack of trade with the world contributed to what was dubbed ‘the Hindu rate of growth’. Jawaharlal Nehru, India’s prime minister from 1947 to 1964, had been influenced by what he saw when he visited the Soviet Union and was determined that the government should heavily regulate the economy. Nehru initiated a series of ‘Five Year Plans’, modelled on the Soviet system. India’s ‘licence raj’ meant that up to eighty agencies had to be satisfied before a firm could commence operations.²⁰ The Indian government would often then decide what was produced, and at what price it would be sold. This approach constrained innovation and reduced productivity growth.

但与中国不同的是，印度在 1947 年独立后没有经历过饥荒。印度经济学家阿马蒂亚·森提出了一种理论来解释这一现象。他在 1943 年孟加拉饥荒爆发时还是一个九岁的孩子，当时他帮助向灾民分发大米，这场灾难最终导致约 300 万人死亡，而当时印度正处于英国统治之下。森认为，饥荒不仅仅与粮食生产有关，政府将粮食从需要的地方转移也会导致饥荒。森的结论是，拥有自由新闻的民主国家极不可能遭遇饥荒。森的方法强调人的能力，即为自身利益行事的能力。他认为，人类的繁荣不仅关乎“免于”（不受他人干涉的）自由，也关乎“去做”（比如接受教育或积极参与民主的自由）。

Yet unlike China, India experienced no famines in the period after independence in 1947. One theory for this was developed by Indian economist Amartya Sen, who witnessed the 1943 Bengal Famine as a nine-year-old child – helping to hand out rice to victims of a disaster that ultimately killed around three million people while the country was under British rule. Sen argued that famines are not simply about food production; they can also be caused when governments divert food away from where it is needed. Democracies with a free press, Sen concluded, are extremely unlikely to suffer a famine. Sen’s approach emphasises human capabilities – the ability to act in one’s own interest. Human flourishing, he argues, is not merely about ‘freedom from’ (the freedom from interference by others) but also about the ‘freedom to’ (such as the freedom to get an education or actively participate in the democracy).

1943 年孟加拉饥荒期间，饥饿的民众在施粥所排队等候救济。

Hungry citizens waiting in line at a soup kitchen during the 1943 Bengal Famine.

贝特曼/盖蒂图片社。

Bettmann / Getty Images.

森对联合国的《人类发展报告》产生了重大影响，该报告根据更广泛的标准对各国进行排名指标比经济产出更重要。在许多情况下，这些指标是相辅相成的。民主程度更高的国家往往享有更快的经济增长率。^{21 个}LGBTIQA+ 人群权利更多的国家，其收入和幸福感更高。²²鼓励女性充分参与社会生活的国家通常生活水平较高。²³

Sen has significantly influenced the United Nations’ Human Development Report, which ranks countries on a broader set of indicators than economic output. In many cases, these metrics go together. Countries that are more democratic tend to enjoy more rapid rates of economic growth.²¹ Nations with more rights for LGBTIQA+ people have higher incomes and higher rates of wellbeing.²² Countries that encourage women to participate fully in society generally have higher living standards.²³

市场促进繁荣的潜力以及能力对人类繁荣的重要性，可以从东德和西德、朝鲜和韩国的发展轨迹中看出。经过四十年的共产主义统治，东德的生活水平只有西德的三分之一。²⁴经过近80年的共产主义统治，朝鲜的生活水平只有资本主义韩国的二十三分之一。²⁵这两个实验还表明，共产主义未能鼓励阿马蒂亚·森所说的人类能力。在两国共同的边界上，是共产主义国家——而不是资本主义国家——修建了一堵墙，并威胁说，如果本国公民试图离开，他们就会被枪杀。

The potential of markets to boost prosperity, and the importance of capabilities to human flourishing, can be seen in the trajectories of East and West Germany, and North and South Korea. After four decades of communist rule, living standards in East Germany were one-third of West German levels.²⁴ After almost eight decades of communism, living standards in North Korea are 1/23rd of the level in capitalist South Korea.²⁵ Both experiments also show that communism fails to encourage what Amartya Sen calls human capabilities. Along their shared border, it was the communist nation – not its capitalist counterpart – that built a wall and threatened to shoot its citizens if they tried to leave.

20 世纪 70 年代末是一个转折点，许多国家开始转向市场经济。对一些国家来说，这引发了人们对资本主义是否走得太远的质疑。对另一些国家来说，引入市场经济意味着人们可以吃得饱饱的，而不是每天晚上饿着肚子上床睡觉。

The late 1970s marked a turning point, in which many nations turned towards markets. For some, it led to the question of whether capitalism had gone too far. For others, the introduction of markets proved to be the difference between having enough to eat and going to bed hungry every night.

渴望改变

HUNGRY FOR CHANGE

历史上最严重的饥荒包括1693年至1694年的法国，1740年至1741年和1846年至1852年的爱尔兰，1868年的芬兰，1921年至1922年的苏联和1975年至1979年的柬埔寨。²⁶在这些事件中，每起饥荒事件都会造成超过 5% 的人口死亡。贫穷国家最容易遭受饥荒，因为在困难时期，它们可用的资源较少。饥荒往往是由连续的收成欠缺引发的，通常是由极端天气事件造成的。但政府失职可能会加剧饥荒。极权政府更容易犯下政策错误，隐瞒灾难的真实程度，并拒绝外部援助。

History’s worst famines include France in 1693–94, Ireland in 1740–41 and 1846–52, Finland in 1868, the Soviet Union in 1921–22 and Cambodia in 1975–79.²⁶ In each of these incidents, more than 5 per cent of the population died. Poor countries are most vulnerable to famines, as they have fewer resources to draw upon in hard times. Famines have often been precipitated by back-to-back harvest shortfalls, typically caused by extreme weather events. But they can be exacerbated by governmental failure. Totalitarian governments are more prone to making policy mistakes, concealing the true extent of the disaster, and refusing outside assistance.

布里奇特·奥唐纳 (Bridget O'Donnell) 和她的两个孩子在 1846-52 年的爱尔兰马铃薯饥荒期间遭受苦难，这场饥荒导致 12% 的人口死亡。

Bridget O’Donnell and two of her children, who suffered during the 1846–52 Irish Potato Famine, which killed 12 per cent of the population.

《伦敦新闻画报》，1849 年 12 月 22 日。图片来自 Wikimedia Commons。

Illustrated London News, 22 December 1849. Image via Wikimedia Commons.

饥荒来袭时，人们死于疾病的可能性比死于饥饿的可能性更大。最有可能死亡的人是最贫穷的人、儿童和老人。女性死于饥荒的可能性比男性要小，这很可能是因为女性身体的脂肪与肌肉的比例高于男性。

When famine strikes, people are more likely to die from disease than actual starvation. The people most likely to die are the poorest, young children and the elderly. Women are less likely than men to die in famines, most likely due to the physiological fact that women’s bodies have a higher fat-to-muscle ratio than men’s.

随着时间的推移，饥荒造成的死亡人数比例已经下降。即便如此，在二十世纪，饥荒造成的死亡人数也比两次世界大战造成的死亡人数总和还要多。今天，严重的农作物歉收不一定会导致饥荒。联合国粮食及农业组织和世界粮食计划署是两个为防止饥荒而设立的机构，如果获准进入一个国家，它们通常能够提供粮食救济。现在饥荒的危险更多来自政治风险，而不是农业风险。有了良好的治理，世界就可以让饥荒成为历史。

Over time, the proportional death toll of famines has fallen. Even so, in the twentieth century, famines killed more people than the two world wars combined. Today, drastic crop failure need not lead to famine. The Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Food Programme, two United Nations bodies created to prevent famines, are generally able to provide food relief if they are allowed into a country. The danger of famine now comes from political risk more than agricultural risk. With good governance, the world can make famine history.

10 市场无处不在

Markets, Markets Everywhere

1978 年，在中国小岗村，十八名村民聚在一起签署了一份可能让他们丧命的秘密合同。和中国其他地区一样，小岗村在大跃进期间也遭受了巨大的损失。在 1958 年至 1960 年间，全村 120 人中，超过一半的人都死了。¹ 20 世纪 70 年代，人们仍然极度饥饿。他们知道农业产量可以更高，但他们也知道集体主义制度的激励机制不利于实现这一目标。

IN 1978, IN THE TINY CHINESE VILLAGE of Xiaogang, eighteen villagers met to sign a secret contract that could have cost them their lives. Like other parts of China, Xiaogang had suffered terribly during the Great Leap Forward. Out of a population of 120 people, more than half had died during the years from 1958 to 1960.¹ In the 1970s, people were still desperately hungry. They knew that agricultural output could be higher – but they also knew that the incentives of the collectivist system worked against it.

那时，一切都是集体所有。签订合同的人之一颜景昌总结道：“努力工作，不努力工作——每个人都得到一样的报酬。所以人们不想工作。”²这份合同是在泥地和稻草屋顶的房子里签订的，这直接违反了共产党当局的规定。合同规定，每户人家都有自己的一块土地，并被允许保留部分产出。这份协议非常危险，村民们还同意，如果一方不遵守协议，他们就互相抚养孩子。被判入狱或被处决。这份在油灯下签署的文件被藏在村民颜洪昌家屋顶的一根竹子里。

At that time, everything was owned by the collective. Yen Jingchang, one of those who signed the contract, summed it up by saying, ‘Work hard, don’t work hard – everyone gets the same. So people don’t want to work.’² The contract, signed in a house with a mud floor and straw roof, went directly against the dictates of the communist authorities. It stated that each family would have its own plot of land and be allowed to keep part of the output. The agreement was so dangerous that the villagers also agreed to provide for each other’s children if one was jailed or executed. The document, signed under an oil lamp, was hidden inside a piece of bamboo in the roof of one of the villagers, Yen Hongchang.

然而，让他们暴露身份的并不是这份文件，而是自留地的产量高得多。以前，农民们只有在听到哨声后才开始在集体农场工作。现在，有些人在日出之前就开始照料他们的自留地。到年底，小岗村的收成比前五年的总和还要多。当地官员愤怒地质问颜鸿昌。但他很幸运。中国新任国家主席邓小平喜欢他们的想法，并鼓励其他村民尝试类似的实验。几年之内，小岗村的秘密就成为中国脱贫之路。

Yet it wasn’t the document that gave them away, it was the fact that the output from private plots was so much higher. Previously, farmers had only started work on the collective farms at the sound of a whistle. Now, some began tending their private farms before sunrise. At the end of the year, Xiaogang’s harvest was bigger than the previous five years combined. Local officials angrily interrogated Yen Hongchang. But he was lucky. China’s new president, Deng Xiaoping, liked their ideas and encouraged other villagers to try similar experiments. Within a few years, Xiaogang’s secret had become China’s road out of poverty.

在脱离集体化的过程中，实践往往快于法律。例如，直到 1988 年，中国才将雇用 7 名以上员工的私营企业合法化。³但这种转变非常迅速，影响深远。1978 年改革开放后的十年间，每年约有 1000 万中国人（相当于当今瑞典的人口）摆脱了贫困。⁴

In the shift away from collectivisation, practice often outpaced laws. For example, it was not until 1988 that China legalised private businesses employing more than seven people.³ Yet the transformation was rapid and its implications far-reaching. In the decade following the 1978 reforms, around 10 million Chinese – a number equivalent to the modern-day population of Sweden – were brought out of poverty every year.⁴

这些变化也提醒人们，社会变革往往更多地受到技术和政策而非社会规范的驱动。政策的影响在共产主义社会中最为明显。正如俄国革命导致生活水平的下降一样，1978 年的变化也使数百万人的生活发生了变化饥饿与温饱。自那一年起，中国经济年均增长率超过 9%。贸易是这一增长的关键组成部分，使中国制造商能够向全球市场销售产品。

The changes were also a reminder of the economic tenet that societal changes tend to be driven more by technology and policy than social norms. Nowhere is the impact of policy clearer than with communist societies. Just as the Russian Revolution ushered in a collapse in living standards, the 1978 changes made the difference for millions of people between going hungry and having enough to eat. Since that year, economic growth in China has averaged over 9 per cent annually. Trade has been a critical component of this growth, allowing Chinese manufacturers to sell to a global market.

在中国不断增强市场作用的同时，英国和美国也朝着类似的方向发展。1979 年玛格丽特·撒切尔和 1980 年罗纳德·里根当选总统后，政府对经济的干预大大减少。在英国，撒切尔将大部分公营公用事业私有化。公共住房租户被赋予购买其房产的权利——对于长期租户来说，价格是市场价值的一半。超过一百万套公共住房被私有化。房屋所有权最初上升，但随后下降，因为许多新业主将房屋转售给专业房东。

At the same time that China was increasing the role of the market, the United Kingdom and the United States were moving in a similar direction. The election of Margaret Thatcher in 1979 and Ronald Reagan in 1980 led to much less government intervention in the economy. In the United Kingdom, Thatcher privatised most of the utilities that had been in public hands. Public housing tenants were given the right to buy their properties – in the case of long-term tenants, at half the market value. More than one million public housing units were privatised. Home ownership initially rose, and then fell as many of the new owners on-sold their homes to professional landlords.

在美国，里根执政八年，个人最高税率从70%降至28%。面对空中交通管制员的罢工，里根解雇了1万多名工人，并雇用了非工会人员来替代。商界领袖也效仿了他的做法。在接下来的几年里，罢工的铜矿工人、肉类包装工、公交车司机和造纸工人都失业了。⁵工会的力量开始减弱。里根还减少了政府监管，放松了对有线电视、远洋运输、天然气和州际货运服务的价格管制。⁶

In the United States, Reagan’s eight years in office saw the top individual tax rate reduced from 70 per cent to 28 per cent. In the face of a strike by air traffic controllers, Reagan fired more than 10,000 workers, and hired non-union replacements. Business leaders followed his example. In the next few years, striking copper miners, meat packers, bus drivers and paper workers found themselves out of a job.⁵ The power of unions began to wane. Reagan also reduced government regulation, easing price controls on cable television, ocean shipping, natural gas and interstate trucking services.⁶

芝加哥大学的米尔顿·弗里德曼曾为撒切尔和里根提供过建议，他是经济学家。米尔顿·弗里德曼和他的妻子罗斯·弗里德曼都善于表达，精力充沛，他们写道弗里德曼出版了《资本主义与自由》和《自由选择》等畅销书，制作了一部十集的经济学电视纪录片，并定期撰写报纸文章。作为一名自由主义者，弗里德曼相信自由至上，这导致他反对征兵、支持毒品合法化并提倡小政府。弗里德曼批评政府支付可以帮助经济避免衰退的说法。相反，他提出了一个永久收入假说，根据该假说，家庭预计当前的政府支出将需要通过未来的税收增加来支付。弗里德曼认为，支出就是征税。

An economist who advised both Thatcher and Reagan was the University of Chicago’s Milton Friedman. Articulate and energetic, Milton Friedman and his wife Rose Friedman wrote popular books with titles such as Capitalism and Freedom and Free to Choose, created a ten-part television documentary on economics and penned regular newspaper articles. As a libertarian, Friedman believed in the primacy of freedom, which led him to oppose military conscription, support drug legalisation and advocate smaller government. Friedman criticised the claim that government payments could help economies avoid recession. Instead, he proposed a permanent income hypothesis, under which households anticipate that current government spending will need to be paid for by future tax increases. To spend is to tax, argued Friedman.

永久收入假说虽然很巧妙，但它无法很好地描述人们的实际行为。要么是因为人们并不完全理性，要么是因为他们相信政府刺激措施将增加税基，所以政府支出可以促进总体经济活动。实际上，家庭不会为了应对未来的税单而削减支出。无论政府的政治立场如何，它们都不会通过严厉指责过度扩张财务的人的不道德行为来应对经济衰退。相反，它们采取凯恩斯主义的方法，提供及时、有针对性和暂时性的财政刺激。正如前央行行长马克·卡尼所说，“就像战壕里没有无神论者一样，金融危机中也没有自由主义者。”⁷

The permanent income hypothesis is elegant, but it does a poor job of describing how people actually behave. Either because people aren’t perfectly rational or because they believe that government stimulus will grow the tax base, government spending can boost total economic activity. In practice, households do not cut back their spending in anticipation of future tax bills. Regardless of their political stripes, governments don’t respond to recessions by sternly waggling their finger at the immorality of people who overextended their finances. Instead, they take the Keynesian approach of providing timely, targeted and temporary fiscal stimulus. As former central banker Mark Carney has noted, ‘Just as there are no atheists in foxholes, there are no libertarians in financial crises.’⁷

弗里德曼并非 20 世纪 80 年代唯一一位具有影响力的“芝加哥学派”经济学家。在竞争政策方面，罗伯特·博克和理查德·波斯纳主张采取更为宽松的企业合并方式，即所谓的消费者福利标准。他们声称，规模大也可以是美，并列举了大公司生产效率更高的案例。20 世纪 80 年代，这种思想在美国和世界各地日益盛行。芝加哥学派认为，重要的不是合并或定价政策是否损害了竞争对手，而是它是否能证明损害了消费者。在里根执政期间，竞争法受到限制，银行被赋予了投资更广泛资产的自由。

Friedman was not the only influential ‘Chicago School’ economist in the 1980s. In competition policy, Robert Bork and Richard Posner argued for a more relaxed approach to corporate mergers, known as the consumer welfare standard. Big could be beautiful, they claimed, pointing to instances in which larger firms produced their products more efficiently. During the 1980s, this strand of thought became increasingly dominant in the United States and around the world. What mattered, according to the Chicago School, was not whether a merger or a pricing policy harmed competitors but whether it could be shown to damage consumers. Under Reagan, competition laws were curtailed, and banks were given freedom to invest in a broader range of assets.

20 世纪 80 年代，许多其他发达国家试图缩减公共部门，降低企业税率和个人税率。私有化浪潮席卷全球，欧洲、亚洲和拉丁美洲的政府纷纷出售国有企业，如电话运营商、港口、收费公路、电力生产商和铁路。⁸当时，许多经济学家认为，这些企业在私有制下会运作得更有效率，因为它们将受到市场严格监管，并可能面临竞争压力。

During the 1980s, many other advanced nations sought to downsize the public sector, cutting corporate tax rates and individual tax rates. A wave of privatisations swept the world, with governments in Europe, Asia and Latin America selling off state-owned enterprises such as telephone carriers, ports, toll roads, electricity producers and railways.⁸ At the time, many economists believed that these enterprises would operate more efficiently under private ownership, where they would be subject to the rigours of the market and might face competitive pressure.

实际上，私有化现在似乎被夸大了。在许多情况下，被私有化的资产都是自然垄断资产，它们的主导地位使它们不受竞争对手的威胁。任何想与私有化的铁路垄断企业竞争的人可能都必须投资数百万美元来铺设新轨道和建造新列车——这可能会吓跑大多数新进入者。出售垄断铁路可能会增加政府的金库，但如果这在未来几十年推高了火车票的价格，那么这是一笔糟糕的交易。

In practice, privatisation now appears to have been overhyped. In many cases, the assets that were privatised were natural monopolies, whose dominant position made them impervious to threat from competitors. Anyone who wants to compete against a privatised railway monopoly may have to invest millions of dollars in new tracks and trains – something likely to deter most new entrants. Selling a monopoly railway might bolster the government’s coffers, but if it pushes up the price of train tickets over coming decades, it’s a crummy deal.

在商学院，崭露头角的首席执行官们学习了迈克尔·波特的“五种力量”，这些力量决定了一家公司能否获得异常高的利润。⁹当没有竞争，当潜在进入者面临障碍，当供应商几乎没有议价能力，当客户几乎没有选择，当没有替代产品的威胁时，行业就会得到管理者和投资者的大力支持。

In business school, budding CEOs learn about Michael Porter’s ‘five forces’ that determine whether a firm can enjoy unusually high profits.⁹ Industries get a big thumbs up from managers and investors when there is no competition, when potential entrants face barriers, when suppliers have little bargaining power, when customers have few alternatives, and when there is no threat of substitute products.

但尽管这五种力量有利于利润，但对消费者来说却不利。竞争政策通常朝着完全相反的方向发展——促进竞争，鼓励新进入者，确保垄断者在与供应商和客户打交道时不会滥用权力。短视的私有化——如上文铁路的例子——往往产生较高的初始销售价格，但实际上对消费者征收了长期税，最终导致向私有化公用事业公司支付更多费用。如今的经济学家对私有化持怀疑态度，因为私有化可能会锁定垄断供应商。

But while the five forces are good for profits, they’re bad for consumers. Competition policy typically runs in precisely the opposite direction – towards boosting competition, encouraging new entrants and ensuring that monopolists do not abuse their power in their dealings with suppliers and customers. Short-sighted privatisations – as in the railway example above – often yielded a high initial sale price, but effectively levied a long-term tax on consumers, who ended up paying more to the privatised utility. Economists today tend to be more sceptical of privatisations that could lock in a monopoly provider.

美丽带来回报

BEAUTY PAYS

亚里士多德说：“个人美貌比任何推荐信都更有说服力。”美貌经济学研究吸引力与收入之间的关系。这是可能的，因为虽然美是情人眼中的美，但人们看待美的方式却相似。事实证明，如果你让多位评分者评估一个对象的吸引力，他们会得出类似的答案。

‘Personal beauty’, said Aristotle, ‘is a greater recommendation than any letter of reference.’ The economics of beauty studies the relationship between attractiveness and income. This is possible because while beauty is in the eye of the beholder, people behold it similarly. It turns out that if you ask multiple raters to assess a subject’s attractiveness, they come up with comparable answers.

经济学家丹·哈默梅什（Dan Hamermesh）分析了包括吸引力评估和收入衡量在内的多项调查数据，估计最相貌的员工比最差的员工收入高出约 10％。¹⁰在发达国家，这一数字可能高达数十万美元。一般而言，男性的外貌与工资之间的关系比女性更密切。美貌效应在与顾客互动较少的职业中仍然存在，这表明雇主可能歧视外貌较差的人。这种现象被称为“外貌歧视”，但很少有司法管辖区禁止基于外貌歧视他人。

Crunching data from several surveys that include assessments of attractiveness and measures of earnings, economist Dan Hamermesh estimates that the best-looking workers make about 10 per cent more than the worst-lookers.¹⁰ In advanced nations, this can add up to hundreds of thousands of dollars over a career. In general, the relationship between attractiveness and wages is stronger for men than for women. The beauty effect persists in occupations with little customer interaction, suggesting that employer discrimination against less attractive people may be at play. The phenomenon has been dubbed ‘lookism’, but few jurisdictions outlaw discrimination against people based on their physical appearance.

婴儿会更长时间地注视美丽的面孔。

Babies stare longer at beautiful faces.

Art_Photo/Shutterstock。

Art_Photo / Shutterstock.

长得好看的人还能从其他方面受益。长得好看的人也更有可能获得贷款。长得好看的政治候选人更有可能当选。长得好看的刑事被告更有可能被无罪释放。长得好看的学生在课堂上的表现会得到更高的分数。长得好看的教授——甚至是经济学教授——会得到更高的教学评价。即使是婴儿也会更长时间地注视漂亮的脸蛋。

Beautiful people also benefit in other ways. Attractive people are also more likely to secure loans. Attractive political candidates are more likely to be elected. Attractive criminal defendants are more likely to be acquitted. Attractive students receive higher grades for their class presentations. Attractive professors – even economics professors – receive higher teaching evaluations. Even babies will gaze longer at attractive faces.

但如果你不够漂亮也不必担心。那些不算传统意义上的漂亮人士应该记住比较优势理论，并专注于自己的其他优势，例如智慧、体力和个性。

But don’t fret if you’re not gorgeous. Those who aren’t conventionally comely should remember the theory of comparative advantage, and focus on their other strengths, such as brains, brawn and personality.

11 通胀目标与不平等

Inflation Targeting and Inequality

20 世纪 80 年代，经济政策制定者在降低通货膨胀方面取得了稳步进展。我们以前曾遇到过通货膨胀最阴险的形式：恶性通货膨胀。与第一次世界大战后的德国一样，匈牙利在第二次世界大战后也经历了一场残酷的恶性通货膨胀。匈牙利的年通货膨胀率一度达到 419,000,000,000,000,000%，政府发行了 100 千万亿的钞票（“1”后面跟着 20 个零）。¹ 1989 年，随着物价每月翻一番，阿根廷政府宣布该国已耗尽钞票纸。它真的用完了纸币。在罗伯特·穆加贝的领导下，津巴布韦的恶性通货膨胀达到了物价每天翻一番的地步。有一次，津巴布韦一家大型银行的 ATM 机出现“数据溢出错误”，因为它们无法处理取款中的零数。²

DURING THE 1980S, ECONOMIC POLICYMAKERS made steady progress in reducing inflation. We have previously encountered inflation in its most insidious form: hyperinflation. Like post–World War I Germany, Hungary experienced a brutal bout of hyperinflation after World War II. At one point, annual inflation in Hungary reached 419,000,000,000,000,000 per cent, and the government issued a 100-quintillion note (‘1’ followed by twenty zeros).¹ In 1989, with prices doubling every month, Argentina’s government announced that the country had exhausted its supply of banknote paper. It had literally run out of paper. Under Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe’s hyperinflation reached a point where prices were doubling every day. In one instance, Zimbabwean ATMs for a major bank gave a ‘data overflow error’ because they could not handle the number of zeros in the withdrawal.²

恶性通货膨胀的风险促使人们采用金本位制，将货币价值固定在珍贵的金属。在实践中，这一方法显得笨拙。没有理由期望世界黄金开采的速度能与使用金本位制国家的经济增长速度相匹配。如果矿工发现大量金矿，我们真的希望它降低货币价值吗？20 世纪 70 年代初金本位制的终结意味着各国可以根据人口和生活水平的增长增加货币供应量。主要经济体也开始将本国货币脱钩，放弃固定汇率，转而采用“浮动”汇率，即由本国货币的供求决定的汇率。

The risk of hyperinflation had spurred the adoption of the gold standard, which fixed a currency’s value to the precious metal. In practice, this turned out to be clunky. There was no reason to expect the pace of world gold mining to match the rate of economic growth in countries that used the gold standard. If miners encounter a vast gold deposit, do we really want it to reduce the value of money? The end of the gold standard in the early 1970s meant that countries could increase the money supply in line with growth in the population and living standards. Major economies also began to decouple their currencies from one another, abandoning fixed exchange rates in favour of ‘floating’ exchange rates, which were set by the supply and demand for their currency.

但在央行受政客控制的时代，经济因素并不是管理通胀的唯一考虑因素。政府发现，在选举前制造经济繁荣是一种诱惑，而选举后往往会出现经济衰退。这可能有助于政客保住工作，但许多普通工人在选举后的经济危机中失去了工作。问题如此严峻，以至于你可以从经济图表中找出选举年。在战后的几十年里，美国选举后一年的经济增长率往往低于选举年本身。欧洲也出现了类似的模式。

But in the era when central banks were under the control of politicians, economic factors weren’t the only consideration in managing inflation. Governments found it tempting to engineer a pre-election boom, which was often followed by a post-election bust. It might have helped politicians keep their jobs, but many regular workers lost their jobs in the crash that tended to follow the election. The problem is so stark that you can literally pick the election years out of the economic charts. In the post-war decades, economic growth rates in the United States tended to be lower in the year after the election than in the election year itself. A similar pattern could be seen in Europe.

有时，政治干预利率制定是直接的，但也可能暗中干预。1972 年，面对不断上升的通货膨胀，美国总统理查德·尼克松担心美联储会通过提高利率来减缓经济增长。为了胁迫央行，尼克松泄露了美联储主席亚瑟·伯恩斯要求加薪 50% 的谎言。³

Sometimes the political meddling in interest rate setting was direct, but it could also be covert. Facing rising inflation in 1972, US president Richard Nixon feared that the Federal Reserve would slow the economy by increasing interest rates. In an attempt to bully the central bank, Nixon leaked the falsehood that Federal Reserve Chair Arthur Burns was demanding a 50 per cent pay rise.³

“政治经济周期”的暴露导致了新的发展。财政政策仍将由民选政治家控制，但货币政策将由中央银行独立执行。在发达国家，20 世纪 80 年代中央银行家的独立性稳步提高。高收入国家的中央银行家一步步从不比普通公务员拥有更多自主权，转变为几乎拥有法官享有的那种独立性。

The exposure of the ‘political business cycle’ led to a new development. Fiscal policy would still be controlled by elected politicians, but monetary policy would be carried out independently by central banks. Across the advanced world, the 1980s saw a steady increase in the degree of independence of central bankers. Step by step, central bankers in high-income nations moved from having no more autonomy than regular public servants towards having almost the kind of independence enjoyed by judges.

央行行长不仅越来越独立，还开始直接瞄准通胀。在 20 世纪 70 年代和 80 年代，央行一直瞄准中间指标——例如货币或信贷数量——但人们越来越认识到通胀和货币供应量之间的关系可能不稳定。正如一位沮丧的央行行长所说，“我们没有抛弃货币总量，而是货币抛弃了我们。”⁴

Not only were central bankers increasingly independent; they also began to target inflation directly. In the 1970s and 1980s, central banks had been targeting intermediate metrics – such as the quantity of money or credit – but there was an increasing recognition that the relationship between inflation and the money supply could be rubbery. As one frustrated central banker put it, ‘We didn’t abandon the monetary aggregates, they abandoned us.’⁴

从 1990 年开始，新西兰政府要求其央行将通胀率控制在 0% 至 2% 之间，成为第一个要求央行明确关注通胀的国家。在经历了多年的两位数年度通胀率后，新西兰寻求结束如此剧烈的价格波动。

Beginning in 1990, the New Zealand government required its central bank to keep inflation between 0 and 2 per cent, making it the first country to ask its central bank to explicitly focus on inflation. After many years of double-digit annual inflation, New Zealand sought an end to such wild price volatility.

其他国家也迅速效仿。加拿大于 1991 年。英国于 1992 年。澳大利亚于 1993 年。如今，大多数央行都已采用通胀目标，通常在2%——这一水平被认为可以保持物价稳定，同时避免通货紧缩。正如高通胀会导致不稳定一样，通货紧缩也是一个问题，因为它会阻碍消费，因为家庭会推迟大宗采购，期待明年能以更低的价格购买产品。

Other countries swiftly followed. Canada in 1991. The United Kingdom in 1992. Australia in 1993. Today, most central banks have adopted inflation targets, typically around 2 per cent – a level that is thought to keep prices stable, while avoiding deflation. Just as high inflation can cause instability, deflation is a problem because it can stall spending, as households put off major purchases in anticipation of buying products more cheaply next year.

从实际角度来说，央行控制短期利率。这使得央行能够影响商业银行对家庭和企业借贷收取的长期利率。

In practical terms, central banks control short-term interest rates. This allows them to affect the long-term interest rates charged by commercial banks for household and business borrowing.

为什么利率对经济有如此大的影响？一种思考利率的方式是，它反映了选择今天消费而不是明天消费的“代价”。当利率较低时，企业和个人有动力提前实施计划。想开设新办公室或购买房屋？低利率可能会打破平衡。相反，较高的利率会使借贷变得不那么有吸引力，通过鼓励延迟满足来减少经济活动。对央行来说，利率就像汽车上的刹车和油门——在正确的时间踩下正确的油门，你就可以迅速到达目的地而不会偏离道路。

Why does the interest rate have such a big effect on the economy? One way to think about interest rates is that they reflect the ‘price’ of choosing to consume today rather than tomorrow. When interest rates are low, businesses and individuals have an incentive to bring forward their plans. Want to open a new office or buy a house? Low interest rates might just tip the balance. Conversely, higher interest rates make borrowing less attractive, reducing economic activity by encouraging delayed gratification. To the central bank, interest rates are like the brake and accelerator on a car – tap the correct pedal at the right time, and you can promptly get to your destination without running off the road.

有些央行只关注通胀，而其他央行则有双重职责，关注失业等其他因素。实际上，这种差异可能比表面上看起来的要小。多亏比尔·菲利普斯（Bill Phillips）的工作——他建立了经济的液压模型——我们知道，在短期内，通胀和失业之间存在着密切的关系。因此，一家关注通胀的央行通胀压力必然也会影响就业和经济增长。目标是让经济保持“适度状态”——不太冷，也不太热。

Some central banks target only inflation, while other central banks have a dual mandate, focusing on additional factors such as unemployment. In practice, this may be a smaller difference than it appears. Thanks to the work of Bill Phillips – the man who built a hydraulic model of the economy – we know that in the short term there is a strong relationship between inflation and unemployment. So a central bank that focuses on inflation will invariably affect jobs and growth too. The aim is to keep the economy in a ‘goldilocks state’ – not too cold, not too hot.

通胀目标制和央行独立性是否成功？就通胀而言，是的。在 20 世纪 70 年代石油危机之后，美国的年通胀率在十年内一直超过 6%，在 1980 年达到 14% 的峰值。⁵ 20 世纪 90 年代至 21 世纪初，通货膨胀率一直维持在低位。英国和日本的情况也类似，20 世纪 70 年代，这两个国家的通货膨胀率达到 20% 以上的峰值，之后在 20 世纪 90 年代和 21 世纪初降至较低且稳定的水平。

Have inflation targeting and central bank independence been a success? In terms of inflation, yes. Following the oil shocks of the 1970s, annual inflation in the United States was over 6 per cent for ten years, peaking at 14 per cent in 1980.⁵ Through the 1990s and 2000s, inflation stayed low. It was a similar story in the UK and Japan, where inflation peaked at over 20 per cent in the 1970s, before being brought down to a low and steady level in the 1990s and 2000s.

发达国家的通货膨胀和中央银行独立性

Inflation and central bank independence in advanced countries

图表由艾伦·拉弗 (Alan Laver) 绘制，基于《通货膨胀与中央银行独立性：经合组织国家》（我们的数据世界）。

Graph by Alan Laver based on ‘Inflation and central bank independence: OECD countries’, Our World in Data.

央行行长面临的挑战是利率会影响未来的行为，因此货币政策将始终受到他们对即将发生的事情的最佳猜测的影响。美联储主席曾经说过，这样做的目的是在聚会刚刚开始热闹的时候把酒碗拿走。⁶我们将看到，二十一世纪初期，当央行行长们试图保持正确平衡时，他们面临着新的挑战。

The challenge for central bankers is that interest rates affect future behaviour, so monetary policy will always be shaped by their best guess of what is about to happen. As the head of the US Federal Reserve once put it, the aim is to take away the punch bowl just as the party is warming up.⁶ As we will see, the early decades of the twenty-first century posed fresh challenges for central bankers as they tried to get the balance right.

当新西兰率先实行通胀目标制时，印度正准备实施其历史上最重要的改革之一——这些改革直接影响到政府与市场之间的平衡。1991 年，印度财政部长曼莫汉·辛格向议会提交了一份预算，废除了大部分“许可证制度”——即规定企业可以生产什么的制度。卢比贬值，使出口商受益，一些行业向外国投资开放。改革的刺激因素是外汇危机。印度的外汇仅够维持两周的生活，刚刚将 47 吨黄金运往伦敦作为紧急贷款的抵押品。⁷辛格认为，这些变化将标志着印度崛起为“世界主要经济强国”。

While New Zealand was pioneering inflation targeting, India was preparing to implement some of the most significant reforms in its history – changes that went directly to the balance between government and the market. In 1991, Indian finance minister Manmohan Singh presented a budget to parliament that abolished most of the ‘licence raj’ – the system that dictated what firms could produce. The rupee was devalued, benefiting exporters, and some industries were opened to foreign investment. The spur for reform had been a crisis in foreign exchange. India had barely enough foreign currency to last a fortnight and had just shipped forty-seven tonnes of gold to London as collateral for an emergency loan.⁷ The changes, Singh argued, would mark India’s emergence as a ‘major economic power in the world’.

就像英国在 1846 年废除《谷物法》和中国在 1978 年转向私有财产一样，印度 1991 年的改革对经济产生了巨大影响。经济增长加速，私营部门迅速发展。印度最大的跨国企业集团塔塔集团（Tata Group）将其业务扩展到从化学品生产到咨询服务等各个领域。塔塔集团收购了英国最大的茶叶制造商 Tetley 和标志性的英国汽车品牌捷豹，这是对殖民主义的一次彻底逆转。然而，塔塔集团的故事印度的改革也提醒我们，关注平均水平存在风险。改革前，印度底层 50% 的收入增长速度远快于顶层 1% 的收入增长速度。改革后，印度顶层 1% 的收入增长速度大大快于底层 50% 的收入增长速度。⁸

Like Britain’s repeal of the Corn Laws in 1846 and China’s shift towards private property in 1978, India’s 1991 reforms had a massive impact on the economy. Economic growth accelerated, and the private sector grew rapidly. The Tata Group, India’s largest multinational conglomerate, expanded its operations in everything from chemical production to consulting services. In a neat reversal of colonialism, Tata purchased the United Kingdom’s largest tea maker, Tetley, and iconic British car brand Jaguar. However, the story of the Indian reforms is also a reminder of the risk of focusing on averages. In the pre-reform era, Indian incomes grew much more quickly for the bottom 50 per cent than for the top 1 per cent. In the post-reform period, Indian incomes grew substantially faster for the top 1 per cent than for the bottom 50 per cent.⁸

与许多其他低收入国家相比，印度对新企业家来说是一个更具挑战性的环境。2020 年，世界银行估计，在印度创业需要十道手续，耗时十七天，成本接近一个月的平均收入。⁹而另一个极端是，在东欧国家格鲁吉亚创办一家企业只需完成一道手续，耗时一天，成本相当于一周的平均工资。

India is a more challenging environment for new entrepreneurs than many other low-income nations. In 2020, the World Bank estimated that starting a business in India requires ten procedures, takes seventeen days, and costs nearly one month’s average earnings.⁹ At the other extreme, starting a business in the Eastern European nation of Georgia requires one procedure, takes a day and costs the equivalent of one week’s average wages.

二十世纪下半叶，贸易量的增长速度快于全球经济产出，反映出经济一体化程度的提高。但从 1985 年到 1995 年，这一趋势进一步加快——一位贸易历史学家将这段时期称为“世界改变”的十年。¹⁰一些国家变得更加开放，因为它们已经耗尽了外汇储备。其他国家则被世界银行和国际货币基金组织等全球机构说服，相信贸易将促进繁荣。本世纪席卷全球的民主化浪潮也使政治倾向于降低关税，不再保护裙带企业。

For the second half of the twentieth century, trade volumes had grown faster than global economic output, reflecting increasing economic integration. But the trend accelerated from 1985 to 1995 – a period that one trade historian refers to as the decade in which ‘the world changed’.¹⁰ Some countries became more open because they had exhausted their supply of foreign exchange. Other nations were persuaded by global institutions such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund that trade would boost prosperity. The wave of democratisation that swept the world in this decade also tilted politics towards lower tariffs and away from protecting crony companies.

1994 年，世界贸易组织终于成立。半个世纪前，布雷顿森林体系曾设想成立“国际贸易组织”，但美国参议院对该提议犹豫不决，迫使世界转而依赖关税及贸易总协定。尽管这个名字笨拙，但该机构监督了全球平均关税从 1947 年的 22% 降至今天的 3%。¹¹

In 1994, the World Trade Organization finally came into being. Half a century earlier, Bretton Woods had envisaged the creation of an ‘International Trade Organisation’, but the US Senate had baulked at the proposal, forcing the world to rely instead on the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade. Yet despite this clunky name, the institution oversaw a reduction in the average worldwide tariff from 22 per cent in 1947 to 3 per cent today.¹¹

另一个刺激贸易的因素是 11 个高收入欧洲国家决定采用共同货币欧元。欧元于 1999 年开始使用，使人们的贸易和旅行更加方便。缺点是参与国在危机中失去了贬值本币的灵活性。十年后，当欧洲债务危机导致希腊陷入深度衰退时，这种危险得到了极大的缓解。

Another spur to trade was the decision by eleven high-income European countries to adopt a common currency, the Euro. Commencing in 1999, the Euro made it easier for people to trade and travel. The downside was that participating countries lost the flexibility to devalue their currency in a crisis. This danger was brought into sharp relief a decade later, when the European Debt Crisis caused a deep recession in Greece.

贸易对亚洲国家的经济轨迹尤为重要。四小龙经济体（韩国、台湾、香港和新加坡）成功地采取了出口导向型经济增长模式，在 20 世纪 60 年代至 80 年代期间平均收入迅速增长。20 世纪 80 年代，中国与美国和欧盟谈判达成最惠国协定，确保其出口关税不高于其他贸易伙伴的关税。2001 年，中国加入世界贸易组织。

Trade was particularly important to the economic trajectory of Asian nations. Four ‘tiger’ economies (Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore) successfully adopted an export-led approach to economic growth, enjoying rapid gains in average incomes from the 1960s to the 1980s. In the 1980s, China negotiated most favoured nation agreements with the United States and the European Union, ensuring that tariffs on its exports would be no higher than those applying to other trading partners. In 2001, China joined the World Trade Organization.

其他亚洲国家也走了类似的道路。20 世纪 90 年代，评论家们开始谈论五个“虎崽”经济体——印度尼西亚、马来西亚、菲律宾、泰国和越南。出口导向型制造业、外国投资和教育进步促成了这些经济体的崛起仅用两代人的时间，东亚国家就从低收入国家跃升至中等收入国家。观察这一现象的一个方法是将这些较为开放的经济体与拉丁美洲较为封闭的经济体（如巴西和阿根廷）进行比较。20 世纪中叶，东亚的生活水平还不到拉丁美洲的一半。到 20 世纪末，这一差距几乎已经缩小。¹²

Other Asian nations followed a similar path. In the 1990s, commentators began to talk about five ‘tiger cub’ economies – Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. An export-oriented manufacturing sector, foreign investment, and gains in education contributed to the rise of these countries from low-income to middle-income over the course of two generations. One way to see the effect is to compare these more open economies with the more closed economies of Latin America (such as Brazil and Argentina). In the middle of the twentieth century, East Asian living standards were less than half the level in Latin America. By the end of the century, the gap had almost closed.¹²

当一位新加坡期权交易员搞垮伦敦历史最悠久的商业银行巴林银行时，金融权力向亚洲的转移就凸显出来了。28 岁的尼克·李森 (Nick Leeson) 从事衍生品交易，即从另一种资产中获得价值的金融工具。最简单的衍生品是农产品期货。假设一位小麦种植户担心从现在到收获日的小麦价格变化。期货市场允许她以今天的价格出售她的作物，并在未来某一天交割。另一种衍生品是按给定价格买入或卖出的期权，可用于转移风险。

The shift of financial power towards Asia was highlighted when a Singapore options trader brought down Barings, the oldest merchant bank in London. Twenty-eight-year-old Nick Leeson was trading in derivatives – financial instruments that derive their value from another asset. The simplest derivatives are agricultural futures. Suppose a wheat farmer is worried about changes in the price of wheat between now and harvest day. The futures market allows her to sell her crop at today’s price for delivery on a future day. Another form of derivative is an option to buy or sell at a given price, which can be used to shift risk.

但就像保险将风险从客户转移到保险公司一样，衍生品也涉及将风险转移到另一个交易者。李森早期为巴林银行进行的交易进展顺利，一年内就占到了公司利润的十分之一，但当他遇到问题时，他设立了一个“错误账户”，以向管理团队隐瞒损失。1995 年，李森进行了一笔交易，相当于押注日本股市不会下跌。当神户地震发生时，他输掉了赌注。衍生品交易的危险性使问题更加严重。当你持有股票时，可能发生的最坏情况是它们的价值会归零。相比之下，当你持有某些衍生品时，你的损失是无限的。巴林银行损失了 10 多亿美元。这家银行倒闭了，李森被判入狱。一代人之后，衍生品仍然受到监管机构的严格审查。衍生品可以降低个人交易者的风险，但也会使整个金融体系更加不稳定。

But just as insurance shifts risk from the customer to the insurance company, derivatives involve shifting risk to another trader. Leeson’s early trades for Barings had gone well, accounting in one year for a tenth of the firm’s profits, but when he ran into problems, he set up an ‘error account’ to hide his losses from the management team. In 1995, Leeson placed a trade that amounted to a bet that the Japanese stock market would not fall. When the Kobe earthquake hit, he lost the bet. The problem was made worse by the dangers of derivative trading. When you own shares, the worst that can happen is that their value goes to zero. By contrast, when you own certain derivatives, your losses are unlimited. Barings lost more than US$1 billion. The bank collapsed and Leeson was jailed. A generation on, derivatives continue to be scrutinised by regulators. Derivatives can reduce risk for individual traders, yet they can also make the whole financial system more volatile.

尽管金融市场动荡不安，但对许多亚洲人来说，20 世纪 90 年代的发展仍是繁荣昌盛的时期。解释经济发展是经济学的核心目标，而这位为穷国如何致富提供新见解的人，其人生故事是所有经济学家中最不寻常的。

Despite the volatility of financial markets, the story of the 1990s for many people in Asia was one of growing prosperity. Explaining economic development is a central goal of economics, and someone who has provided fresh insights into how poor countries become rich has one of the most unusual life stories of any economist.

26 岁时，林毅夫在台湾军队担任连长，驻扎在距离中国大陆几公里的金门岛。他告诉手下，当晚将举行军事演习，如果看到有人在水中，不得开枪。天黑后，他跳入水中，游向中国大陆，投奔共产党政权。次年，在北京大学攻读经济学的他又一次幸运。诺贝尔经济学奖得主西奥多·舒尔茨正在中国访问，林毅夫担任他的翻译。舒尔茨对这个年轻人印象深刻，为他安排了全额奖学金，让他在芝加哥大学攻读博士学位。随后，他的研究生涯大获成功。

At the age of twenty-six, Justin Yifu Lin was serving in the Taiwanese army as a company commander on Taiwan’s Kinmen Island, a few kilometres from the Chinese mainland. He told his men that there would be a military exercise that night, and that if they saw anyone in the water they were not to shoot. Then, after dark, he entered the water and swam to the Chinese mainland, where he defected to the communist regime. The following year, studying economics at Peking University, he had another lucky break. Nobel Prize–winning economist Theodore Schultz was visiting China, and Lin served as his translator. Schultz was so impressed with the young man that he arranged a full scholarship for him to complete his PhD at Chicago University. A successful research career followed.

林毅夫的理论在他担任世界银行首席经济学家期间的许多书籍、文章和演讲中都有所体现，即在战后时期不仅具有市场导向、稳定的宏观经济政策和经济开放性，而且也具有积极主动的国家主导性。¹³这些国家的政府确定了他们认为具有比较优势的商业部门，并通过建立经济特区、投资基础设施和促进外国投资来协助这些部门。拉乌尔·普雷维什的拉丁美洲方法建议各国远离外国竞争，而林则的东亚战略则建议各国通过资助研究和建设基础设施来支持关键的出口产业。然而，即使是这种方法也是有风险的，因为政府可能会选错行业，或者发现临时政策变成了永久性政策。正如批评者所指出的，“幼稚产业”的支持往往持续到那些尚未起步的行业。

Lin’s theory, expressed in numerous books, articles and speeches during his time as the World Bank’s chief economist, is that the low-income countries which did best in the post-war era not only shared a market orientation, stable macroeconomic policies and an economic openness, but were also guided by a proactive state.¹³ Governments in these countries identified business sectors that they saw as having a comparative advantage, and assisted them by establishing special economic zones, investing in infrastructure and promoting foreign investment. Where Raúl Prebisch’s Latin American approach advised countries to wall themselves off from foreign competition, Lin’s East Asian strategy suggested that countries support key export industries by funding research and building infrastructure. Yet even this approach is risky, since governments may pick the wrong sector, or find that a temporary policy has become permanent. As the critics note, ‘infant industry’ support often endures for industries that are well out of diapers.

即使在最市场化的国家，政府在推动技术发展方面也发挥着强有力的作用。¹⁴伦敦大学学院的马里亚纳·马祖卡托指出，重大技术突破往往发生在政府投资技术“任务”时——例如登陆月球或建立互联网。“创业型国家”一直是创新背后的驱动力，而这些创新往往被错误地归因于私营部门。

Even in the most market-oriented nations, governments have played a powerful role in spurring technological development.¹⁴ University College London’s Mariana Mazzucato points out that major technological breakthroughs have often come when governments have invested in technological ‘missions’ – such as landing on the Moon or building the internet. The ‘entrepreneurial state’ has been a driving force behind innovations that are often wrongly attributed to the private sector.

技术的快速传播是世界人口和预期寿命持续上升的一个关键原因。1798 年，牧师托马斯·马尔萨斯认为，粮食供应无法超过人口增长，大规模饥荒和人口死亡是不可避免的。1968 年，生物学家安妮和保罗·埃尔利希宣称“养活全人类的战斗已经结束”。他们还预测“20 世纪 70 年代世界将遭遇饥荒——数亿人将饿死”。埃尔利希夫妇冷酷地建议停止对印度的所有粮食援助，因为印度“在人口粮食问题上远远落后，我们的粮食援助不可能帮助他们实现自给自足”。

The rapid spread of technology has been a key reason why world population and life expectancy have continued to rise. In 1798, cleric Thomas Malthus argued that the supply of food could not outpace population growth and a large-scale famine and population die-off was inevitable. In 1968, biologists Anne and Paul Ehrlich declared that ‘the battle to feed all of humanity is over’. They went on to forecast that ‘in the 1970s the world will undergo famines – hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death’. The Ehrlichs callously advised ending all food aid to India, a nation that was ‘so far behind in the population-food game that there is no hope that our food aid will see them through to self-sufficiency’.

印度目前的人口数量是埃尔利希夫妇撰写这本书时的两倍多。营养不良和儿童死亡率下降，而预期寿命和平均身高上升。印度的生育率已降至“替代率”以下，即每名妇女生育 2.1 个孩子——这是人口可以维持的水平。¹⁵根据目前的预测，全球生育率将在大约一代人的时间内降至更替率以下，此后世界人口将达到 100 亿左右的峰值，然后开始下降。¹⁶

India’s population is now more than twice as large as it was when the Ehrlichs wrote their book. Malnutrition and child mortality are down, while life expectancy and average heights are up. India’s fertility rate has fallen below the ‘replacement rate’ of 2.1 births per woman – the level at which the population can be expected to sustain itself.¹⁵ On current projections, the global fertility rate will fall below the replacement rate in approximately a generation, after which the world population will peak at around 10 billion people and then begin to decline.¹⁶

为什么马尔萨斯和埃尔利希兄弟错了？一个主要原因是创新揭穿了末日预言家的谎言。铁丝网可以廉价地圈养大型动物，促进大规模牛羊养殖。拖拉机使大规模种植成为可能，为农民节省了大量的劳动时间。哈伯-博施法使将大气中的氮转化为氨基肥料成为可能。人们不再开采热带岛屿的鸟粪，而是通过工业化生产肥料，全球每年的产量超过 2 亿吨。你体内现在一半的氮都是通过哈伯-博施法产生的。¹⁷

Why were Malthus and the Ehrlichs wrong? A major reason is that innovation debunked the doomsayers. Barbed wire allowed large animals to be contained cheaply, facilitating large-scale cattle and sheep farming. Tractors enabled larger-scale cropping, saving farmers vast numbers of hours of labour. The Haber-Bosch process made it possible to convert atmospheric nitrogen into ammonia-based fertiliser. Instead of mining tropical islands for guano, fertiliser is produced industrially, with global production exceeding two hundred million tonnes each year. Half the nitrogen in your body right now was created using the Haber-Bosch process.¹⁷

20 世纪 60 年代“绿色革命”的一项重要进展是培育出半矮抗病小麦，这种小麦的产量几乎是普通小麦的两倍。诺曼·博洛格率先将这些植物引入印度、巴基斯坦和墨西哥，拯救了 10 多亿人的生命。最近，转基因作物使农民能够提高产量，同时减少农药使用。目前，全球有超过十分之一的农田是转基因的。农药使用量的减少（部分原因是受到蕾切尔·卡森的《寂静的春天》一书的推动）对自然环境有益。这也有助于减少农药中毒和农民自杀事件。¹⁸研究人员目前正在探索一系列可能的基因改造，包括增强维生素的蔬菜和更有效地进行光合作用的植物。

A key development in the ‘green revolution’ of the 1960s was the breeding of semi-dwarf, disease-resistant wheat, which could produce nearly twice as much as regular wheat. Norman Borlaug, who led the introduction of these plants into India, Pakistan and Mexico, is credited with saving over one billion lives. More recently, genetically modified crops have allowed farmers to increase yields while reducing pesticide use. More than one-tenth of the world’s cropland is now genetically modified. Declining usage of pesticides – partly spurred by Rachel Carson’s book Silent Spring – has been good for the natural environment. It has also contributed to a drop in pesticide poisonings and farmer suicides.¹⁸ Researchers are currently exploring a range of possible genetic modifications, including vitamin-augmented vegetables, and plants that carry out photosynthesis more efficiently.

在医学领域，现代抗生素改变了医生治疗细菌感染的方式。一个世纪前，美国总统卡尔文·柯立芝的儿子在打完一场网球后，因脚趾上出现感染性水泡而死亡。几年后，亚历山大·弗莱明发现了青霉素。到诺曼底登陆时，数百万剂青霉素已准备好供盟军使用。战后，青霉素可供民用。如今，抗生素在医学和农业领域广泛使用（且过度使用）。结核病、破伤风、脊髓灰质炎、乙肝、麻疹、流感、肺炎和新冠肺炎疫苗挽救了数百万人的生命。

In medicine, modern antibiotics transformed how doctors treat bacterial infections. A century ago, the son of US president Calvin Coolidge died from an infected blister on his toe after a game of tennis. A few years later, penicillin was discovered by Alexander Fleming. By the time of the D-Day landing, millions of doses of penicillin were ready for Allied troops. In the post-war era, penicillin was made available for civilian use. Today, antibiotics are used (and overused) across medicine and agriculture. Vaccines for tuberculosis, tetanus, polio, hepatitis B, measles, influenza, pneumonia and COVID have saved millions of lives.

经济学家在扩大有效治疗的普及方面也发挥了重要作用。20 世纪 90 年代，专家们对关于抗疟蚊帐是否应该出售或免费赠送的问题，有人认为，免费获得蚊帐的村民不会重视它，可能会选择将其用作低效的渔网，而不是保护自己和孩子的生命。为了解决这个问题，研究人员进行了一系列大规模随机试验，其中一些受助者获得了免费蚊帐，而其他人则有机会以补贴价格购买。结果表明，免费蚊帐的接受率要高得多，而且同样有可能用于其预期用途。¹⁹因此，捐助机构转向提供免费蚊帐。在 Esther Duflo、Abhijit Banerjee、Michael Kremer 和 Dean Karlan 的带领下，随机试验在发展经济学中变得无处不在。随机化的优势在于它提供了一种识别因果关系的强大手段。

Economists have also been instrumental in expanding the take-up of effective treatments. In the 1990s, experts disagreed on whether anti-malarial bed nets should be sold or freely given away. Some argued that villagers who received a free bed net would not value it as highly and might choose to use it as an inefficient fishing net, rather than a lifesaving protection for themselves and their children. To settle the matter, researchers conducted a series of large-scale randomised trials, in which some recipients were offered free bed nets, while others were given a chance to buy them at a subsidised price. It turned out that free bed nets had a much higher take-up rate and were equally likely to be used for their intended purpose.¹⁹ As a result, donor agencies shifted towards the provision of free bed nets. Led by Esther Duflo, Abhijit Banerjee, Michael Kremer and Dean Karlan, randomised trials have become ubiquitous in development economics. The strength of randomisation is that it provides a powerful means of identifying causal effects.

人们很容易忽视卫生和农业创新推动的全球人口和预期寿命的大幅增长。自 1800 年以来，世界人口已从 10 亿增长至 80 亿。当时，没有一个国家的平均预期寿命超过 40 岁。如今，每个国家的平均预期寿命都超过 40 岁。全球平均预期寿命已从 1800 年的不到 30 岁上升至今天的 70 岁以上。

It is easy to overlook the massive increase in global population and life expectancy that has been facilitated by health and agricultural innovation. Since 1800, the world’s population has grown from 1 billion to 8 billion people. Back then, no country had an average life expectancy above forty years. Today, every nation has an average life expectancy above forty years. Global average life expectancy has risen from under thirty in 1800 to over seventy today.

从经济角度来看，预期寿命的增加可能比平均收入的增加更重要。假设您可以选择健康地活两倍或收入增加两倍——您会选择哪一个？我会选择长寿，我知道许多朋友也会这样做。这一点也提醒我们，经济学的核心是幸福，而不是收入。正如澳大利亚出生的经济学家贾斯汀·沃尔弗斯所说，经济学与金钱无关，就像建筑与英寸无关一样。金钱是比较成本和收益时有用的衡量工具，但它不是最终目标。

From an economic standpoint, this increase in life expectancy may well be more important than the increase in average incomes. Suppose you could choose between living healthily for twice as long or having twice as much income – which would you pick? I’d go for the longevity, and I know many friends who would do the same. This point also serves as a reminder that what lies at the heart of economics is wellbeing, not income. As Australian-born economist Justin Wolfers notes, economics is no more about money than architecture is about inches. Money is a useful measuring tool when comparing costs and benefits, but it is not the ultimate end goal.

所有这些并不是说技术进步和进入全球市场已经解决了世界上所有的问题。许多国家似乎陷入了“中等收入陷阱”——无法跃升至高收入国家。那些已经完成这一转变的国家——如日本、新加坡和韩国——是例外。截至 2020 年底，7.19 亿人处于极端贫困状态——即每天生活费不足 2.15 美元。这些人大多生活在撒哈拉以南非洲。

None of this is to suggest that technological progress and access to global markets have solved all the world’s problems. Many nations appear to be stuck in a ‘middle-income trap’ – unable to make the leap into high-income status. Those countries that have accomplished this transition – such as Japan, Singapore and South Korea – are the exceptions. At the end of 2020, 719 million people were in extreme poverty – defined as living on less than US$2.15 a day. Most of those people live in Sub-Saharan Africa.

在过去的一代人中，世界上大多数国家的不平等现象都有所加剧。在一些国家，富人不仅加速脱离了其他人，穷人也变得更穷了。苏联解体后，酗酒现象增多，死亡率上升，寡头势力猖獗。俄罗斯最穷的一半人的实际收入比 1980 年低了约四分之一。²⁰自 1989 年共产主义结束以来，俄罗斯 99% 的增长都流向了收入最高的十分之一的人。普京领导下的俄罗斯可能比沙皇尼古拉二世统治下的国家更加不平等。

In most countries around the world, inequality has risen over the past generation. In some countries, the rich have not just accelerated away from the rest, but the poor have become poorer. Following the break-up of the Soviet Union, alcoholism increased, mortality rates rose and oligarchs thrived. The poorest half of Russians have real incomes about one-quarter below where they were in 1980.²⁰ Since the end of communism in 1989, 99 per cent of Russia’s growth has gone to the top tenth of income earners. Putin’s Russia is probably more unequal than the nation ruled by Tsar Nicholas II.

可视化全球增长分布的一种方式是所谓的“大象曲线”。该图表最初由塞尔维亚出生的经济学家 Branko 创建米拉诺维奇及其后由其他研究人员更新的图表描绘了 1980 年至 2016 年世界收入分配的增长率：最贫穷的人在左边，最富有的人在右边，而全球中产阶级位于中间。

One way of visualising the distribution of global growth is what has come to be known as ‘the elephant curve’. This chart, originally created by Serbian-born economist Branko Milanović, and since updated by other researchers, depicts the growth rates experienced across the world’s income distribution from 1980 to 2016: with the poorest people on the left, the richest on the right, and the global middle class in the centre.

1980 年至 2016 年全球总收入增长率（百分位数）

Total income growth by percentile across the world, 1980–2016

图表由艾伦·拉韦尔 (Alan Laver) 绘制，基于图 2《 2018 年世界不平等报告》，由法昆多·阿尔瓦雷多 (Facundo Alvaredo)、卢卡斯·尚塞尔 (Lucas Chancel)、托马斯·皮凯蒂 (Thomas Piketty)、埃马纽埃尔·赛斯 (Emmanuel Saez) 和加布里埃尔·祖克曼 (Gabriel Zucman) 编制，在巴黎经济学院发表。

Graph by Alan Laver, based on Fig. 2, World Inequality Report 2018, compiled by Facundo Alvaredo, Lucas Chancel, Thomas Piketty, Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman, presented at the Paris School of Economics.

如果你眯起眼睛，你可能会看到大象的形状：最底部（尾巴）增长缓慢，20% 到 30% 之间的人群（背部）增长较快，中上层（象鼻向下弯曲）增长乏力，收入最高的人群增长惊人（象鼻尖端）。新兴经济体强劲的经济增长形成了明显的驼峰。发达国家被挤压的中产阶级位于象鼻底部。而全球精英阶层的日益繁荣则产生了向上伸展的象鼻，指向天空。

If you squint, you might make out the shape of an elephant: sluggish growth at the very bottom (the tail), more rapid growth for those between the twentieth and thirtieth percentiles (the back), then weak growth for the upper-middle (the downward curve of the trunk), and spectacular growth among the those with the highest incomes (the tip of the trunk). Strong economic growth in the emerging economies gives a pronounced hump. The squeezed middle in advanced nations traces the bottom of the trunk. And the rising prosperity of the global elite produces the upstretched trunk, pointing skywards.

总体而言，如果教育与技术发展同步、工会强大、税收累进，国家就会更加平等。如果经济增长率 (g) 与资本回报率 (r) 同步，平等也会得到改善。

In general, countries tend to be more equal if education keeps pace with technological developments, if unions are strong and if taxes are progressive. Equality is also improved if the economic growth rate (g) keeps pace with the rate of return on capital (r).

通过社会保障网减少不平等的方法有很多种。欧洲模式倾向于为失业者提供更慷慨的支持。而美国模式则侧重于鼓励工作。其中一种方法是通过劳动所得税抵免，这是一项为低收入者（尤其是有孩子的低收入者）提供工资补贴的计划。该计划最慷慨的补贴为 40%，这意味着每小时收入 20 美元的人在扣除劳动所得税抵免后每小时可获得 28 美元。

There are different ways of reducing inequality through the social safety net. The European model tends to provide a more generous level of support to those who are jobless. The US model focuses instead on encouraging work. One of the ways this is done is through the Earned Income Tax Credit, a program that tops up the wages of low earners, particularly those with children. At its most generous, the program provides a 40 per cent subsidy – which means a person earning US$20 an hour would be getting US$28 an hour after the Earned Income Tax Credit.

这两种模式哪一种更好取决于你认为技术将对工作世界产生什么影响。²¹工作悲观主义者认为，人工智能驱动的机器人正逐渐变得更加聪明，很快就能完成所有可以想象到的任务——所以我们最好为一个没有工作的世界做好准备。工作乐观主义者指出，这种论点在过去的几波技术浪潮中都出现过，从机械编织机到台式电脑，但工作仍然存在。作为一个天生的乐观主义者，我自己倾向于鼓励工作的政策。对我们许多人来说，工作不仅是收入来源，也是意义和身份的来源。失业的人会经历幸福感的下降，这种下降远远超过失去薪水。现在放弃工作世界还为时过早。

Which of the two models is better depends on what you think technology will do to the world of work.²¹ The job pessimists argue that artificial intelligence–driven robots are steadily getting smarter and will soon be able to do every task imaginable – so we had better prepare for a workless world. The job optimists point out that this kind of argument has accompanied plenty of past waves of technology, from mechanical knitting machines to desktop computers, yet work is still around. As a congenital optimist, my own inclination is towards policies that encourage work. For many of us, a job isn’t just a source of income, it’s also a source of meaning and identity. People who lose their jobs experience a happiness drop that goes well beyond the loss of a pay packet. It’s too early to give up on the world of work.

医疗保健是美国模式与欧洲模式明显不同的另一个领域。思考这个问题的一种方式是“医疗保健铁三角”，它假设医疗系统面临成本、质量和可及性之间的权衡。²²美国为那些有幸获得医疗保险的人提供高质量的医疗服务，但其医疗支出却高于其他任何发达国家，同时仍有一些人没有医疗保险。欧洲体系不太可能为患者提供最新的治疗，但往往是全民的。

Health care is another area where the US model differs markedly from the European model. One way to think about this is the ‘iron triangle of health care’, which posits that health systems face trade-offs between cost, quality and access.²² The United States provides high-quality health care to those lucky enough to be covered, but spends more on health care than any other advanced nation, while still leaving some people uncovered. European systems are less likely to give patients the very latest treatments, but tend to be universal.

医疗经济学提醒我们，一些技术突破可以证明增加医疗支出是合理的。²³ β 受体阻滞剂降低了心脏病发作的发病率，而外科手术治疗心脏病的增多也大大增加了患者存活的几率。对于低出生体重的婴儿，特殊的呼吸机和人工表面活性剂等治疗手段可以改善肺部发育，提高了婴儿健康成长的几率。白内障手术已从需要住院三晚且经常出现并发症的大手术，变成了只需不到半小时的一日手术。这些技术进步都提高了我们的健康预期寿命，这证明了投资的合理性。然而，在治疗背痛的脊柱融合术等领域，似乎没有证据表明患者更健康。随着个性化医疗和机器人手术的兴起，医疗保健的铁三角将受到进一步的考验。各国的选择将影响增长和不平等。

The economics of health care reminds us that some technological breakthroughs justify additional health spending.²³ Beta blockers have lowered the incidence of heart attacks, and the increased use of surgery to treat heart attacks has substantially increased the odds that a patient survives. For low-birth-weight infants, special ventilators and treatments such as artificial surfactants to improve lung development have raised the odds that a tiny baby will grow up healthy. Cataract surgery has gone from a substantial procedure that involved a three-night hospital stay and frequent complications to a day procedure that takes less than half an hour. Each of these technological developments has given us an increase in healthy life expectancy that justifies the investment. Yet in areas such as spinal fusion for back pain, there seems to be little evidence that patients are healthier. With the rise of personalised medicine and robotic surgery, the iron triangle of health care will be further tested. The choices countries make will affect both growth and inequality.

最不平等的国家往往对公共服务投资不足，经济学家约翰·肯尼斯·加尔布雷斯曾将这种现象称为“私人富裕，公共贫困”。²⁴在里约热内卢，从伊帕内玛海滩沿岸的豪华酒店可以很容易地看到犯罪猖獗的贫民窟。在开普敦，住在城市豪宅里的人使用私人发电机、私人交通、私人教育和私人保安，而住在棚屋里的人则必须忍受断断续续的电力、不稳定的火车、苦苦挣扎的学校和每年 1500 分之一的谋杀率。在德里，最富裕的家庭拥有大批仆人，而空气污染是世界上最严重的。

The most unequal countries have tended to underinvest in public services, a phenomenon that economist John Kenneth Galbraith once called ‘private opulence and public squalor’.²⁴ In Rio de Janeiro, crime-stricken favelas can easily be seen from the luxury hotels that line Ipanema beach. In Cape Town, those who live in the city’s mansions use private generators, private transport, private education and private security, while those in shacks must survive with intermittent power, unreliable trains, struggling schools and an annual murder rate of 1 in 1500. In Delhi, the most affluent families boast retinues of servants, while air pollution is among the worst in the world.

里约热内卢的贫富差距，游泳池旁边就是贫民窟。

The wealth gap in Rio de Janeiro, with swimming pools next to shanty towns.

Caio Pederneiras / Shutterstock。

Caio Pederneiras / Shutterstock.

体育经济学

THE ECONOMICS OF SPORT

体育占全球经济的比重不到1％，但它可以作为更广泛地理解经济行为的缩影。²⁵该学科的历史可以追溯到 20 世纪 50 年代对棒球劳动力市场的分析，但它在千禧之际迎来了爆发式增长，以 2000 年《体育经济学杂志》的创刊为标志。

Sport constitutes less than 1 per cent of the global economy, but it can serve as a microcosm for understanding economic behaviour more broadly.²⁵ The discipline dates back to analysis of the baseball labour market in the 1950s, but it exploded around the turn of the millennium, marked by the formation of the Journal of Sports Economics in 2000.

市场结构很重要。体育界的垄断问题比常规经济更严重。很少有球迷愿意看到一场轻松取胜的比赛。为了保持“竞争平衡”，许多体育规则共享收入、限制工资并在下个赛季选拔球员时优先考虑联赛垫底的球队。

Market structure matters. The problem of monopoly power is even greater in sport than in the regular economy. Few fans want to witness a walkover. To maintain ‘competitive balance’, many sporting codes share revenues, cap salaries and give bottom-of-the-league teams preference when drafting players for the next season.

体育运动是研究快速判断如何产生种族偏见的有用实验室，一项对 NBA 篮球裁判的研究发现，他们倾向于给予异族球员更多的人身犯规。²⁶ Sport 还提供了有关长期新冠疫情影响的见解。研究了疫苗问世前一个赛季的欧洲足球运动员，发现那些感染了新冠的球员表现明显不佳。即使在感染 8 个月后，这些年轻运动员的传球次数也比未感染新冠的队友少 5%。^二十七

Sport is a useful laboratory for studying how snap judgements can be racially biased, with a study of NBA basketball referees finding that they tend to give more personal fouls to players of the opposite race.²⁶ Sport also provided insights into the impact of long COVID. Studying European soccer players in the season before vaccines became available, those who had caught COVID noticeably underperformed. Even eight months after their infection, these young athletes made 5 per cent fewer passes than their COVID-free teammates.²⁷

当球队实力更接近时，观众人数会更多

When teams are more evenly matched, crowd attendance is larger

亚历克斯·博加特列夫（Alex Bogatyrev）/Shutterstock。

Alex Bogatyrev / Shutterstock.

体育运动是一个舞台，人们在其中对规则所创造的激励做出反应 — — 即使这些反应违背了比赛的精神。²⁸ 2012 年奥运会上，女子羽毛球双打比赛中有四对组合因为试图在比赛初期输掉比赛以在淘汰赛阶段取得更好的成绩而被取消资格。激励无处不在。

Sport is an arena in which people respond to the incentives created by the rules – even if they are outside the spirit of the game.²⁸ In the 2012 Olympics, four teams in the women badminton doubles were disqualified for attempting to lose early matches so as to get a better draw in the knockout stages of the tournament. Incentives are everywhere.

12 Hot Markets and a Hotter Planet

2000 年初， pets.com 网站投放了耗资百万美元的超级碗广告，以袜子木偶吉祥物为特色，并进行了首次公开募股，募资 8200 万美元。到年底，股价已从每股 11 美元跌至每股 0.19 美元。事实证明，该公司的营销策略很聪明，但其商业策略是以远低于成本的价格销售猫砂和狗粮为基础的。这意味着 pets.com 吸引的客户越多，损失的钱就越多。Pets.com 成为那年科技灾难的吉祥物。

AT THE START OF 2000, THE WEBSITE pets.com ran a million-dollar Super Bowl ad, featuring its sock puppet mascot, and held an initial public offering, which raised US$82 million. By the end of the year, the stock price had crashed from US$11 a share to US$0.19 a share. It turned out that the company had a clever marketing strategy, but its business strategy was based on selling cat litter and dog food at prices well below cost. This meant that the more customers pets.com attracted, the more money it lost. Pets.com became the mascot for that year’s tech wreck.

在过去十年中，网络发展迅速。在“Web 1.0”阶段，搜索引擎、文件共享、政府网站和商业活动蓬勃发展。到二十世纪末，全球互联网用户数量每年翻一番。¹一些公司，如谷歌和亚马逊，将继续主导其行业。其他公司，如 pets.com、eToys、GeoCities、Webvan 和 garden.com，无法产生足够的收入来满足投资者的需求。

In the prior decade, the web had grown rapidly. This ‘Web 1.0’ phase saw the growth of search engines, file-sharing, government websites and commercial activity. By the end of the twentieth century, the number of worldwide internet users was doubling annually.¹ Some firms, such as Google and Amazon, would go on to dominate their industries. Others, like pets.com, eToys, GeoCities, Webvan and garden.com, could not produce enough revenue to satisfy their investors.

美国科技泡沫的破裂——就像几年前的亚洲金融危机一样——最终只是一场区域性衰退，而非全球性衰退。科技股占主导地位的纳斯达克股市从 2000 年的顶峰下跌了 78%，2001 年 9 月的恐怖袭击延长了经济衰退。然而，经济衰退相对较短，失业率上升幅度也相对较小。包括英国、加拿大和澳大利亚在内的许多国家完全避免了经济衰退。

The bursting of the US technology bubble – like the Asian Financial Crisis a few years earlier – turned out to be a regional slump rather than a global one. From its peak in 2000, the tech-heavy NASDAQ share market fell by 78 per cent, and the September 2001 terrorist attacks prolonged the downturn. Yet the recession was relatively brief, and the rise in unemployment was relatively modest. Many nations, including the United Kingdom, Canada and Australia, avoided recession entirely.

2002 年，诺贝尔经济学奖颁给了普林斯顿大学的丹尼尔·卡尼曼，以表彰他在行为经济学方面的贡献。经济学奖并不是最初的诺贝尔奖之一；它始于 1969 年，由瑞典中央银行资助，以纪念其 300 周年。非经济学家有时会质疑这是否是真正的诺贝尔奖，但对经济学家来说，这是该行业的最高荣誉。

In 2002, the Nobel Prize in economics was awarded to Princeton’s Daniel Kahneman, for his work in developing behavioural economics. The economics prize was not one of the original Nobel Prizes; it only began in 1969, funded by the Swedish central bank to honour its 300th anniversary. Non-economists sometimes question whether it is a real Nobel Prize, but to economists, it is the profession’s highest honour.

卡尼曼是一位心理学家，他的工作展示了一系列系统性背离标准理性经济人模型的现象。被蚊子叮咬而死亡的概率是被鲨鱼咬伤而死亡的概率的 8000 倍，死于车祸的概率是死于飞机失事的概率的 4000 倍。²但许多人更担心鲨鱼和飞机，而不是蚊子和汽车。我们在老虎机上浪费钱，却没有为退休储蓄足够。餐馆通过在菜单上添加昂贵的菜品来让我们花更多的钱（这夸大了我们对一顿合理餐费的估计）。网上零售商通过限时“闪电交易”诱骗我们购买不必要的商品。我们熬夜是因为——正如喜剧演员所说杰瑞·宋飞 (Jerry Seinfeld) 曾经说过，对于“早起的人”来说，只睡五个小时是一个问题。

Kahneman is a psychologist, and his work shows a series of systematic departures from the standard rational model of Homo economicus. You are 8,000 times more likely to die from a mosquito bite than a shark bite, and 4,000 times more likely to die in a car crash than a plane crash.² But many people worry more about sharks and planes than mosquitoes and cars. We waste money on slot machines while under-saving for retirement. Restaurants make us spend more by putting an expensive item on the menu (it inflates our estimate of what a reasonable meal should cost). Online retailers trick us into unnecessary purchases through time-limited ‘lightning deals’. Our night selves stay up late because – as comedian Jerry Seinfeld once put it – getting only five hours of sleep is a problem for ‘morning guy’.

卡尼曼与阿莫斯·特沃斯基（Amos Tversky，如果他没有于 1996 年去世的话，他本应与特沃斯基共同获得诺贝尔奖）合作，他的贡献在于让行为经济学不再局限于一系列古怪的结果，而是将其融入到决策制定的整体理论中。卡尼曼认为，大脑使用两个“系统”。³系统一是快速、本能和情绪化的。该系统容易产生行为偏见。锚定偏差意味着如果产品的价格从最初的高价降价，人们更有可能购买该产品。计划谬误意味着典型的厨房改造项目最终花费的成本是最初预期的两倍。系统一用于我们做出快速判断或应用经验法则时，并且往往容易产生偏见。

Working with Amos Tversky (who would have shared the Nobel if he had not passed away in 1996), Kahneman’s contribution was to take behavioural economics beyond a series of quirky results and incorporate it into an overall theory of decision-making. The brain, Kahneman argues, uses two ‘systems’.³ System One is fast, instinctive and emotional. This system is predisposed to behavioural biases. The anchoring bias means that people are more likely to buy a product if it has been marked down from an initially higher price. The planning fallacy means that the typical kitchen remodelling project ends up costing twice what was anticipated at the outset. System One is used when we are making snap judgements or applying rules of thumb, and tends to be prone to bias.

系统二更理性，但速度较慢。计算 2 × 2 时，我们使用系统一。计算 17 × 24 时，我们使用系统二。系统二更费力，也更理性。决定购买哪种洗衣机时，值得使用系统二，以便做出最佳决策。卡尼曼著作的重点不是要求我们精打细算、理性地做每个决定，而是要我们认识到行为偏见何时可能导致我们犯下代价高昂的错误。如今，行为经济学已成为经济学的标准组成部分，其意义在研究人们如何承担风险和购买保险、如何权衡未来与现在以及如何“推动”我们做出更好的决策时尤其重要。

System Two is more rational, but slower. When multiplying 2 × 2, we use System One. When multiplying 17 × 24, we use System Two. System Two is more effortful and tends to be more rational. When deciding what kind of washing machine to buy, it is worth engaging System Two so as to make the best possible decision. The point of Kahneman’s work is not to ask us to be calculating and rational about every decision, but to recognise when our behavioural biases might cause us to make costly mistakes. Today, behavioural economics is taught as a standard part of economics, and its implications are especially important when studying how people take risks and buy insurance, how we trade off the future against the present, and how we can be ‘nudged’ into making better decisions.

人类面临的最大决策之一就是如何应对全球变暖。2005 年，英国政府委托经济学家尼古拉斯·斯特恩撰写了一份关于气候变化经济学的报告。斯特恩报告于次年发布，成为有史以来最重要的气候变化经济报告之一。经济学家早已熟悉外部性的概念，这要归功于剑桥大学的亚瑟·庇古近一个世纪前的工作。假设一家肮脏的工厂位于洗衣店旁边，工厂运行时会将烟灰沉积在洗衣店的床单上。这是一个市场失灵的例子，因为工厂不支付它给洗衣店造成的成本。最简单的答案是禁止洗衣区内的污染工厂（或相反）。或者，政府可以征收“庇古税”，税额等于工厂对洗衣店造成的损害价值。另一位经济学家罗纳德·科斯认为，如果交易成本足够小，那么双方就可以通过讨价还价达成一个有效的结果（尽管他承认，这在实践中很少发生）。

One of the biggest decisions facing humanity is how to handle global warming. In 2005, the British government commissioned economist Nicholas Stern to write a report on the economics of climate change. Delivered the following year, the Stern Review was to be one of the most significant economic reports on climate change ever written. Economists had long been familiar with the concept of an externality, thanks to the work of Cambridge’s Arthur Pigou nearly a century earlier. Suppose a dirty factory is located next to a laundry and that when the factory is running it deposits soot on the laundry’s sheets. This is an example of a market failure, because the factory does not pay for the cost it imposes on the laundry. The simplest answer is a ban on polluting factories in laundry districts (or the reverse). Alternatively, the government could impose a ‘Pigouvian tax’, with the size of the tax equating to the value of the harm that the factory does to the laundry. Another economist, Ronald Coase, suggested that if transaction costs were sufficiently small, then the parties could bargain their way to an efficient outcome (though he acknowledged that this would rarely occur in practice).

尼古拉斯·斯特恩在报告中总结道，气候变化是世界历史上最大的市场失灵。碳污染造成了巨大的社会成本，但排放者几乎没有动力减少碳排放。斯特恩认为，如果不加以控制，气候变化将对粮食生产、水资源获取和人口健康产生不利影响。水资源短缺、沿海洪灾和饥饿可能影响数亿人的生活，其破坏程度相当于世界大战。这些成本可能相当于每年永远损失全球收入的 5%——甚至可能高达每年损失全球收入的 20%。《斯特恩报告》的结论是，通过花费少得多的金额——大约占全球收入的 1%——可以大幅减少温室气体排放，限制气候变化的最坏影响。行动的关键是确保必然进行的投资——用于现代化能源生产、更新交通网络等——以减少碳排放的方式进行。

In his report, Nicholas Stern concluded that climate change was the biggest market failure the world had ever seen. Carbon pollution imposed massive social costs, but emitters had faced little incentive to cut back. Left unchecked, Stern argued, climate change would have adverse impacts on food production, access to water, and population health. Water shortages, coastal flooding and hunger could affect hundreds of millions of people, disrupting life on a scale equivalent to the world wars. These costs would likely be equivalent to losing 5 per cent of global income every year forever – and might be as high as losing 20 per cent of global income each year. The Stern Review concluded that by spending a much smaller amount – approximately 1 per cent of global income – greenhouse emissions could be substantially reduced, limiting the worst impacts of climate change. The key to action was to ensure that investment which would inevitably be made – in modernising energy production, updating transport networks and so on – was done in a way that reduced carbon emissions.

政府间气候变化专门委员会的科学报告引起了全世界对这一问题的关注，一些科学家认为地球已进入一个新的地质时代，即人类世。《斯特恩报告》采用了经济视角：表明采取行动的好处大于成本。该报告结论的核心是，它对未来和现在的重视程度几乎相同，选择不对未来应用正常的经济贴现率。这与经济学家通常分析长期决策的方式不同。在考虑是否修建高速公路时，政府通常会缩减未来收益，以反映出这笔钱本可以用于其他投资，获得回报，使其在未来更有价值。

Scientific reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change had drawn the world’s attention to the issue, with some scientists arguing that the planet had entered a new geological epoch, the Anthropocene. The Stern Review applied an economic lens: showing that the benefits of acting outweighed the costs. Central to the report’s conclusion was that it put pretty much the same weight on the future as the present, choosing not to apply a normal economic discount rate to the future. This is different to how economists often analyse long-term decisions. In considering whether to build a motorway, a government will typically scale down future benefits to reflect the fact that the money could otherwise be invested, earning a return that would make it more valuable in the future.

对于气候变化，分析则有所不同。如果我们使用标准经济折现率来减少未来成本，我们实际上是在说，后代的生命应该被认为比生活在地球上的人的生命价值更低。斯特恩的贴现率是今天的两倍。在评估基础设施项目时，美国管理与预算办公室建议各机构使用高达 7% 的贴现率进行分析。但 7% 的贴现率意味着，如果收益要到十年后才能看到，那么收益就需要是成本的两倍；如果收益要到一百年后才能看到，那么收益就需要是成本的 868 倍。应用于个人，这意味着一个世纪前一个人的价值相当于现在 868 人的价值。但我们真的会认为乔治五世国王的价值相当于今天一所高中的人口吗？为了避免这种荒谬的结果，斯特恩选择使用较低的贴现率，更加重视子孙后代的福祉。

With climate change, the analysis is different. If we use standard economic discount rates to diminish future costs, we are effectively saying that the lives of future generations should be considered less valuable than those of people living today. When assessing infrastructure projects, the US Office of Management and Budget suggests that agencies conduct their analysis using discount rates of up to 7 per cent. But a discount rate of 7 per cent implies that if benefits are a decade away, then they need to be twice as big as the costs, and that if they are a century away, they need to be 868 times the cost. Applied across individuals, this suggests that the value of one person living a century ago is equivalent to the value of 868 people living today. But would we really think that the value of King George V equates to the population of an entire high school today? To avoid such an absurd result, Stern opted to use a lower discount rate, placing increased weight on the wellbeing of future generations.

尽管《斯特恩报告》的发布引发了经济学家们对贴现率选择的争论，但其基本结论如今已被广泛接受。经济学家们与各国政府合作设计了各种减排方案——目前大多数发达国家的排放量都在下降。一个核心挑战是中国的温室气体排放量，占全球总量的三分之一，近年来一直在稳步上升。鼓励更多低收入国家减少排放现在是解决全球最大市场失灵的关键。

While the release of the Stern Review prompted debate among economists around the choice of discount rates, its essential conclusions are now broadly accepted. Economists have worked with governments to design a variety of schemes to reduce emissions – which are now falling in most advanced nations. A central challenge is China’s greenhouse emissions, which account for one-third of the global total and have been steadily rising over recent years. Encouraging more low-income nations to reduce emissions is now central to addressing the world’s biggest market failure.

然而，市场并不总是失败的，认识到简单的交易行为所创造的价值量是有用的。你早上喝的咖啡的价格可能低于你愿意支付的最高价格：我们称差额为“消费者剩余”。同样，咖啡馆可能会以更高的价格出售它比它愿意接受的最低限度还要低：我们把这个差距称为“生产者剩余”。

Markets don’t always fail, however, and it can be useful to recognise the amount of value created by the simple act of trading. Your morning cup of coffee likely costs less than the maximum you would be willing to pay: we call the difference ‘consumer surplus’. Likewise, the café likely sells it for more than the minimum it would be willing to accept: we call that gap ‘producer surplus’.

2005 年，加拿大博主凯尔·麦克唐纳 (Kyle MacDonald) 生动地诠释了这一原则，他用红色回形针换取了一所房子。首先，他用回形针换了一支鱼形钢笔。然后他用钢笔换了一个手工雕刻的门把手。然后他用门把手换了一个野营炉。这一直持续到他的第十四次也是最后一次交易：用电影角色换取一所小房子。在每一步中，麦克唐纳都认为新物品比旧物品更值钱——但他交易的对象却更看重旧物品而不是新物品。麦克唐纳不仅为自己换到了一所房子——他还通过十四次交易实现了这一目标，而每一次交易都让另一个人的生活变得更好。

In 2005, Canadian blogger Kyle MacDonald vividly illustrated this principle by trading his way from a red paperclip to a house. First, he traded his paperclip for a fish-shaped pen. Then he traded the pen for a hand-sculpted doorknob. Then he traded the doorknob for a camp stove. This went on until his fourteenth and final trade: swapping a movie role for a small house. At each step, MacDonald valued the new item more highly than the old item – but he traded with someone who valued the old item more than the new. MacDonald didn’t just get himself a house – he did so through fourteen trades that each made another person better off.

凯尔·麦克唐纳 (Kyle MacDonald) 拿着他交易的第一件和最后一件物品。

Kyle MacDonald with the first and last of his traded items.

CP 照片/特洛伊·弗利斯 (Troy Fleece)。

CP PHOTO / Troy Fleece.

麦克唐纳并不是唯一一个渴望拥有房产的人。到 2005 年，美国经济已经从短暂的科技危机中复苏，房地产市场繁荣正在进行中。当时，发达国家的房价都在上涨。1995 年，一对有两个孩子的中等收入夫妇平均需要七年的收入才能在他们国家的首都购买一套 60 平方米（650 平方英尺）的公寓。到 2005 年，同一套公寓的价格已上涨至十年的收入。⁴

MacDonald wasn’t the only one who was keen to get his hands on a house. By 2005, the US economy had recovered from the short-lived tech crisis, and a housing boom was underway. This was an era when home prices were rising across the advanced world. On average, it took a middle-income couple with two children seven years of income in 1995 to pay for a 60 square metre (650 square foot) apartment in their country’s capital city. By 2005, the price of that same apartment had risen to ten years of income.⁴

在美国，房价涨幅尤其大。2007年，经济学家罗伯特·席勒（Robert Shiller）对过去一个世纪的美国房价进行了一系列研究，并绘制了过山车式的模拟图。⁵模拟器让观众上下飞驰，最后带他们登上了一个巨大的斜坡。当模拟器结束时，观众可以看到过山车的高度比以往任何时候都要高。

In the United States, the rise in prices was especially steep. In 2007, economist Robert Shiller took his series of US house prices over the previous century and plotted them on a rollercoaster simulation.⁵ The simulator swooped viewers up and down, before finally taking them on a huge rise. As it ended, viewers could see that the rollercoaster was poised higher than ever before.

价格上涨的同时，贷款标准却在下降。在加利福尼亚州的贝克斯菲尔德，一位收入为 14,000 美元、英语不流利的草莓采摘工获得了一套价值 720,000 美元房屋的全额贷款。⁶这些 NINJA 贷款（无收入、无工作、无资产）是基于价格会继续上涨的假设而发放的，借款人可以进行再融资。在贷款方面，贷款被“证券化”——这意味着它们被打包出售给投资者。理论上，这将更广泛地分散风险，并使市场更快地增长。问题是它改变了激励机制。传统上，银行借钱给人们买房，如果借款人无法偿还，银行就会亏损。有了证券化，贷款人不再承担风险，这就产生了向无力偿还的人提供过多贷款的动机。

While prices were rising, lending standards were falling. In Bakersfield, California, a strawberry picker with an income of US$14,000 and no English was lent the full purchase price of a US$720,000 home.⁶ These NINJA loans (no income, no job, no assets) were written on the assumption that prices would continue to rise, allowing borrowers to refinance. On the lending side, loans were ‘securitised’ – which meant that they were packaged and sold on to investors. The theory was that this would distribute the risk more broadly and allow the market to grow more rapidly. The problem was that it changed the incentives. Traditionally, banks lent money to people to buy homes, and the bank lost money if the borrower couldn’t repay. With securitisation, the people writing the loans were no longer taking the risk, which created an incentive to lend too much to people who could not afford to repay.

注意性别薪酬差距

MIND THE GENDER PAY GAP

在世界范围内，女性的每小时工资比男性低20％。⁷尽管随着时间的推移，性别工资差距有所缩小，但这一差距仍然很大。平均而言，20 世纪 60 年代的性别工资差距是今天的两倍。⁸在 1300 年至 1800 年的欧洲，性别工资差距更大，女性的收入通常仅为男性的一半。⁹

Worldwide, hourly wages for women are 20 per cent less than for men.⁷ This represents a sizeable gap, though it has narrowed over time. On average, the gender pay gap was twice as large in the 1960s as it is today.⁸ In Europe from 1300 to 1800, the gender pay gap was larger still, with women often earning only half as much as men.⁹

性别工资差距的原因是什么？从历史上看，一个因素是女性受教育程度低于男性。但这种情况已不复存在，大多数国家的女性受教育程度都高于男性。但一个重要因素是男女从事的职业。护理经济中的工作以女性为主，工资往往较低。工程和计算机编程等职业则以男性为主，工资往往高于平均水平。

What explains the gender pay gap? Historically, one factor was that women had less formal education than men. That’s no longer true, with women’s educational attainment exceeding men’s in most countries. But a significant factor is the occupations that men and women work in. Jobs in the care economy are dominated by women and tend to pay lower wages. Occupations such as engineering and computer programming are male-dominated and tend to pay above-average wages.

克劳迪娅·戈尔丁因“推动了我们对女性劳动力市场结果的理解”而获得 2023 年诺贝尔经济学奖。为配合该奖项的公布，瑞典皇家科学院发布了这幅漫画，展示了戈尔丁关于父母身份在扩大性别工资差距方面的作用的研究结果。

Claudia Goldin won the 2023 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences ‘for having advanced our understanding of women’s labour market outcomes’. To accompany its announcement, the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences released this cartoon, illustrating Goldin’s findings on the role of parenthood in widening the gender pay gap.

©Johan Jarnestad/瑞典皇家科学院。

©Johan Jarnestad/The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences.

过去，一些经济学家认为男性和女性可以自由选择职业。最近的研究对这一观点提出了质疑。例如，我们知道女性在工作中更容易受到性骚扰，而且这种骚扰可能会阻碍女性从事某些职业。如果技术工作的性骚扰发生率较高，那么这可能会阻碍女性选择这些职业道路，从而扩大性别工资差距。

In the past, some economists thought that men and women were freely choosing their occupations. Recent research has questioned this view. For example, we know that women are more likely to be sexually harassed at work, and that this harassment can deter women from certain occupations. If technical jobs have higher rates of sexual harassment, then this can widen the gender pay gap by discouraging women from choosing those career pathways.

另一个因素是歧视。女性在工作中遭受的歧视程度更高，尽管这种情况在过去一个世纪里有所减少。一项有趣的研究跟踪了跨性别男性和女性，发现女性变性者的工资往往会下降，而男性变性者的工资往往会上涨。¹⁰

Another factor is discrimination. Women report higher levels of discrimination at work, although this has diminished over the past century. One intriguing study following transgender men and women finds that those who transition female tend to experience a wage drop, while those who transition male tend to experience a wage gain.¹⁰

或许，现代社会造成性别工资差距的最大因素就是母亲的惩罚。在许多国家，无子女男性和女性的收入轨迹并没有太大差异。但在有子女的人群中，女性通常比男性花更多的时间脱离劳动力队伍。女性在生孩子后，收入通常会下降或持平。这不仅是因为母亲通常从事兼职工作，还因为她们会发现自己的职业轨迹不那么有吸引力，有时被称为“妈妈轨迹”。由于在劳动力市场的经验较少，女性的工资低于男性。

Perhaps the largest contributor to the gender pay gap in the modern era is the motherhood penalty. In many nations, earnings trajectories for childless men and women are not dramatically different. But among those who have children, women generally spend more time out of the labour force than men. When women have children, their earnings typically fall or flatline. This is not only because mothers often work part time, but also because they can find themselves on a less attractive career trajectory, sometimes dubbed ‘the mummy track’. With less experience in the labour market, women are paid lower wages than men.

哈佛大学经济学家克劳迪娅·戈尔丁 (Claudia Goldin) 所说的“贪婪的工作”中的薪酬差距尤其大。¹¹在许多国家，女性在时间密集型岗位（如首席执行官、律师事务所合伙人、政客和外科医生）中的代表性严重不足。难以兼顾事业和家庭的职业往往具有最大的性别工资差距。同样，在儿童保育机会更有限的国家，性别差距也更大。母亲惩罚的一个后果是，如果我们用终生收入而不是小时工资来衡量，性别工资差距往往会更大。即使在发达国家，母亲的平均终生收入也只有男性终生收入的一半左右——与五百年前的小时工资差距相似。¹²

This pay gap is particularly large in what Harvard economist Claudia Goldin calls ‘greedy jobs’.¹¹ In many countries, women are severely underrepresented in time-intensive roles such as chief executives, law firm partners, politicians and surgeons. Occupations that make it difficult to combine career and family tend to have the highest gender pay gaps. Likewise, gender gaps are larger in countries where access to childcare is more limited. One consequence of the motherhood penalty is that the gender pay gap tends to be much bigger if we measure it in terms of lifetime earnings rather than hourly wages. Even in advanced countries, the average lifetime earnings of mothers are only about half the lifetime earnings of men – similar to the hourly wage gap five hundred years ago.¹²

投资银行高盛是将高风险的“次级”住房贷款捆绑成抵押贷款支持证券的金融机构之一。这些证券的买家实际上拥有许多抵押贷款的一部分。如果某个 NINJA 房主拖欠贷款，这可以减少投资者的风险，但如果整个房地产市场暴跌，投资者仍然会受到影响。高盛广泛推销这些产品，包括向退休基金推销。一位高盛交易员吹嘘自己向“寡妇和孤儿”出售次级抵押贷款。与此同时，高盛押注房地产市场将下跌——这种交易被称为“大空头”。高盛后来辩称，它毫不掩饰地押注于向客户销售的产品。

Investment bank Goldman Sachs was one of the financial organisations that bundled together risky ‘subprime’ housing loans into mortgage-backed securities. Buyers of these securities effectively owned a slice of many mortgages. That reduced investors’ exposure if a single NINJA homeowner defaulted on their loan, but still left investors vulnerable if the whole housing market slumped. Goldman marketed these products widely, including to retirement funds. One Goldman trader boasted of selling subprime mortgages to ‘widows and orphans’. Meanwhile, Goldman was betting that the housing market would fall – a trade that became known as ‘the big short’. Goldman would later argue that it had made no secret of the fact that it was betting against the product it was selling to its customers.

市场崩盘后，美国平均房价下跌了约五分之一。到 2008 年，十分之一的抵押贷款持有人出现负资产，这意味着他们的抵押贷款价值超过了他们的房屋价值。数百万借款人拖欠贷款并失去了房屋。然而，高盛却毫发无损。2009 年，该公司盈利 130 亿美元，并支付了数十亿美元的奖金。高盛首席执行官劳埃德·布兰克费恩获得了 900 万美元的奖金。

When the market crashed, average US home values dropped by around one-fifth. By 2008, one in ten mortgage holders had negative equity – meaning that their mortgage was worth more than their home. Millions of borrowers defaulted on their loans and lost their homes. Yet Goldman Sachs emerged financially unscathed. In 2009, the firm made a profit of US$13 billion, and paid billions of dollars in bonuses. Goldman’s chief executive, Lloyd Blankfein, received a US$9 million bonus.

金融危机被拿来与阿加莎·克里斯蒂的《东方快车谋杀案》相提并论，在《东方快车谋杀案》中，每个人都犯了同样的错误。贪婪的银行家、无能的信用评级机构、容易上当的房主和松懈的政策制定者都应承担一定责任。作为回应，二十国集团采取了协调一致的行动，在全球二十国集团中实施了财政刺激措施。最大的经济体。但许多国家仍然遭受着持久的伤害。在美国，黑人工人的失业率上升到 10% 以上，并持续了六年多，而白人工人的失业率从未达到两位数。¹³这是各国经济衰退的常见模式。教育和资产起到减震器的作用——使人们更不容易受到危机的影响。相反，经济学家们意识到波动性和劣势是相伴而生的。

The financial crisis has been compared with Agatha Christie’s Murder on the Orient Express, in which everybody did it. Greedy bankers, incompetent credit rating agencies, gullible home owners and lax policymakers each bear some share of the blame. In response, coordinated action by the G20 delivered fiscal stimulus across the world’s twenty largest economies. But many still suffered enduring harm. In the US, the unemployment rate for Black workers rose above 10 per cent, and stayed there for more than six years, while the unemployment rate among white workers never reached double digits.¹³ This is a common pattern in recessions across countries. Education and assets serve as shock absorbers – making people less vulnerable to crises. Conversely, economists are realising that volatility and disadvantage go together.

发展经济学家越来越多地指出腐败在阻碍经济发展方面的作用。2009 年，马来西亚总理纳吉布拉扎克成立了主权财富基金，即 1MDB，该基金被用来将数亿美元的公共资金用于其政党的政治竞选以及其同伙的私人开支。这场骗局的主要策划者刘特佐在伦敦、纽约和洛杉矶购买了价值数百万美元的豪宅，购买了一架价值 3500 万美元的庞巴迪环球 5000 喷气式飞机，为当时的女友米兰达·可儿购买了价值 800 万美元的珠宝，并举办了一场为期数天的派对，包括包租国际航班在悉尼和拉斯维加斯庆祝新年前夜。这些被盗资金甚至被用来资助《华尔街之狼》 ——一部关于欺诈性股票经纪人及其奢华生活方式的电影。刘特佐一度被认为拥有比世界上任何人都多的自由现金。

Development economists have increasingly pinpointed the role of corruption in holding economies back. In 2009, Malaysian prime minister Najib Razak established a sovereign wealth fund known as 1MDB, which was used to channel hundreds of millions of dollars of public money into political campaigns for his party, and personal spending for his associates. Jho Low, a key mastermind of the scam, purchased multimillion-dollar homes in London, New York and Los Angeles, a US$35 million Bombardier Global 5000 jet, US$8 million of jewellery for his then-girlfriend Miranda Kerr, and a multi-day party that involved chartering an international flight to celebrate New Year’s Eve in both Sydney and Las Vegas. The stolen money was even used to fund The Wolf of Wall Street – a film about a fraudulent stockbroker and his opulent lifestyle. At one point, Low was thought to have more free cash at his disposal than anyone else in the world.

研究腐败的经济学家指出，腐败会以各种方式阻碍发展。印度尼西亚总统苏哈托、扎伊尔总统蒙博托的盗窃行为和菲律宾总统马科斯降低了本国的增长速度，加剧了不平等。政府挪用公款购买宫殿、豪华轿车和游艇，却无法用于政府的医疗和教育项目。在商业领域，腐败抬高了价格，降低了创新能力，损害了公务员的诚信。当经济实力与公众视线之外的腐败政治相遇时，腐败就会滋生。一位研究人员用一个等式总结了腐败的驱动因素：腐败等于垄断加上自由裁量权减去责任制。¹⁴

Economists studying corruption have noted the various ways that it can stymie development. The thefts perpetrated by Indonesia’s president Suharto, Zaire’s president Mobutu and the Philippines’ president Marcos reduced growth and increased inequality in their countries. Public money stolen to buy palaces, luxury cars and yachts is not available to be spent on government health and education programs. In business, corruption raises prices, lowers innovation and undermines honest public servants. Corruption flourishes when economic power meets crooked politics outside the public eye. One researcher sums up the drivers of corruption in an equation: corruption equals monopoly plus discretion minus accountability.¹⁴

经济学家也越来越认识到避税天堂在助长腐败方面的作用。1MDB 贪污案就是通过英属维尔京群岛的银行账户实现的。巴拿马文件、潘多拉文件、卢森堡泄密案和其他披露的事件揭露了毒枭、独裁者和洗钱者以及超级富豪广泛使用避税天堂。据估计，离岸账户中每五美元中就有四美元违反了其他国家的税法。¹⁵针对该问题规模的经济研究有助于向避税天堂施加压力，迫使其与世界各地的税务机关分享信息。

Economists are also increasingly recognising the role of tax havens in enabling corruption. The 1MDB embezzlement was enabled by bank accounts in the British Virgin Islands. The Panama Papers, Pandora Papers, Lux Leaks and other disclosures have revealed widespread use of tax havens by drug lords, dictators and money launderers, as well as by the ultra-wealthy. On one estimate, four out of every five dollars in offshore accounts is there in breach of other countries’ tax laws.¹⁵ Economic research on the scale of the problem has helped put pressure on tax havens to share information with tax administrations around the world.

在低收入国家，无国界税务检查员计划提供专业知识，使各国能够进行严格的审计——在某些情况下，产生的税收收益是支付审计员费用的 100 倍。另一种有用的方法是“可恶债务”的概念，根据这一概念，国际社会一致认为，借给独裁者的钱不是对政府的真正贷款，而应被视为个人贷款。¹⁶可恶债务的理念是改变贷款人的动机。如果一家银行知道，如果该国成为民主国家，帮助独裁者购买武器的贷款将失效，那么它在发放贷款之前可能会三思而后行。反过来，这可能有助于削减独裁者的资金。

In low-income countries, the program Tax Inspectors Without Borders provides expertise to enable nations to conduct rigorous audits – in some cases producing tax gains 100 times larger than the cost of paying the auditors. Another useful approach is the concept of ‘odious debt’, under which the international community agrees that money lent to a despot is not a true loan to the government but should be regarded as a personal loan.¹⁶ The idea of odious debt is to change lenders’ incentives. If a bank knows that a loan to help an autocrat buy weapons will be void if the country becomes a democracy, then it might think twice before making the loan in the first place. In turn, this may help to defund dictators.

随着金融危机后经济恢复增长，人们也逐渐意识到，全球基金经理的某些说法可能毫无根据。在一次研究中，研究人员跟踪了汤姆·彼得斯和罗伯特·沃特曼合著的《追求卓越》一书中介绍的 43 家公司。他们发现，仅仅两年后，近三分之一的公司陷入了严重的财务困境。¹⁷当时最具影响力的商业书籍并不总是能找出最成功的公司。在另一项实验中，六岁的黑猩猩 Raven 通过投掷飞镖来选择股票，其表现优于 99% 的专业华尔街经纪人。¹⁸

As growth resumed after the financial crisis, so too did the steady realisation that some of the claims made by the world’s money managers might be hollow. In one exercise, researchers followed up the forty-three companies profiled in Tom Peters and Robert Waterman’s book In Search of Excellence. They found that just two years later, almost one-third were in serious financial trouble.¹⁷ The most influential business book of its era didn’t always identify the most successful firms. In another exercise, Raven, a six-year-old chimpanzee, outperformed 99 per cent of professional Wall Street brokers by throwing darts to choose her stocks.¹⁸

基金经理面临的最大问题是他们能否超越股票市场的平均表现。根据最近的一份报告，65% 的主动管理型美国股票基金在一年内的表现不及股票市场。¹⁹换句话说，通常情况下，大约三分之二的主动管理型基金的增幅低于股票市场的平均水平。五年内，表现不佳的基金份额增长至 88%。十年内，92% 的管理型基金表现不及股票市场。

The big question for fund managers is whether they can beat the average performance of the share market. According to a recent report, 65 per cent of actively managed US equity funds underperform the share market over a one-year period.¹⁹ In other words, the typical year sees about two-thirds of actively managed funds grow by less than the share market average. Over a five-year period, the share of underperformers grows to 88 per cent. Over a ten-year period, 92 per cent of managed funds underperform the share market.

问题不在于这些基金经理愚蠢，而在于打败股市很难，正如经济理论所预测的那样。在决定买入还是卖出股票时，分析师仔细检查每一条信息，以了解产品、管理团队和市场状况。众所周知，股票市场分析师会使用卫星图像来计算停车场的汽车数量，以估计零售需求，并研究长期天气预报来预测农作物产量。算法交易模型被编程为发现不同市场之间的微小价格差异，并在几毫秒内利用这种差异。

The problem isn’t that these money-managers are stupid, it’s that beating the share market is difficult, as economic theory predicts. When deciding whether to buy or sell a stock, analysts scrutinise every skerrick of information to understand the product, the management team and the market conditions. Share market analysts have been known to use satellite images to count cars in parking lots to estimate retail demand and to study long-range weather forecasts to predict crop yields. Algorithmic trading models are programmed to spot small pricing differences across markets and exploit the difference within milliseconds.

股票市场的一个基本原则是有效市场假说：股票价格反映了所有公开信息。由于根据“内幕”信息进行交易是违法的，大多数积极管理的基金以及大多数个人日内交易者都无法超越股票市场的平均回报。正如经济学家常说的那样，在人行道上很难找到 20 美元的钞票，因为其他人很可能已经抢走了它。

A basic maxim of the share market is the efficient market hypothesis: that the price of a stock reflects all publicly available information. Since it is illegal to trade based on ‘insider’ information, most actively managed funds – as well as most individual day traders – fail to beat the average return on the share market. As economists like to say, it’s rare to find a $20 note on the sidewalk, because someone else is likely to have grabbed it first.

主动管理型基金的一个流行替代品是指数基金。指数基金只是由股票市场上的公司组成，按其市场规模的比例持有。例如，今天的标准普尔 500 指数基金将包括约 7% 的苹果、1% 的雪佛龙、0.1% 的联邦快递，以及该指数中其他 497 家公司的比例。指数基金的回报旨在与其跟踪的股票指数相匹配，减去管理费。由于跟踪指数是一项微不足道的工作，指数基金可以收取的费用远低于向选股者支付费用以选择投资的主动管理型基金。

A popular alternative to actively managed funds is an index fund. An index fund simply comprises the companies on the share market, held in proportion to their market size. For example, an S&P 500 index fund today would include about 7 per cent Apple, 1 per cent Chevron, 0.1 per cent FedEx, and a proportionate share of the other 497 firms in the index. The returns on an index fund are designed to match the share index that it is tracking, minus a management fee. Because tracking the index is a trivial exercise, index funds can charge fees that are far smaller than actively managed funds that are paying stock pickers to choose their investments.

当先锋创始人杰克·博格创建指数基金时1975 年，批评者嘲笑它是“博格的愚蠢行为”。但到了 2010 年代，指数基金已成为行业中的佼佼者。据估计，这些被动投资者在 2011 年控制了美国股票市场的五分之一（这一数字在未来十年将增长到五分之二）。²⁰三大指数投资者之一——先锋集团、贝莱德和道富银行——是标准普尔 500 指数成分股公司中十分之九的最大股东。²¹

When Vanguard founder Jack Bogle created the index fund in 1975, critics derided it as ‘Bogle’s folly’. But by the 2010s, index funds were the gorillas in the room. According to one estimate, these passive investors controlled one-fifth of the US share market in 2011 (a figure that would grow to two-fifths over the coming decade).²⁰ One of the big three index investors – Vanguard, BlackRock and State Street – is the largest shareholder for nine-tenths of the firms on the S&P 500.²¹

经济学家们对许多事情都有争议，但对 40 多位顶级经济学家（包括几位诺贝尔奖获得者）的调查发现，没有一位经济学家不同意投资者投资指数基金会获得更好的收益这一观点。²²指数基金甚至得到了沃伦·巴菲特 (Warren Buffett) 的意外支持，尽管他是一位活跃的投资者，但他认为大多数人最好将资金投入低成本的指数基金。巴菲特在 2017 年写信给股东说：“如果要为对美国投资者做出最大贡献的人树立一座雕像，毫无疑问应该是杰克·博格。”

Economists quarrel about many things, but a survey of over forty top economists (including several Nobel Prize winners) found not a single economist who disagreed with the proposition that investors do better from investing in index funds.²² Index funds even have the unlikely backing of Warren Buffett, who despite being an active investor believes that most people would be better off putting their money into low-cost index funds. ‘If a statue is ever erected to honour the person who has done the most for American investors’, Buffett wrote to his shareholders in 2017, ‘the hands-down choice should be Jack Bogle.’

2010 年代，全球出现了前所未有的大量资金寻求投资机会。从加拿大养老基金到高储蓄的中国家庭，全球储蓄过剩开始压低利率。哈佛大学的拉里·萨默斯警告说，世界可能正在进入一个“长期停滞”时期，生产力和增长放缓。乔治梅森大学的泰勒·科文认为，与 20 世纪大众教育、大规模移民、电气化和交通等变革性突破相比，经济增长计算机化和智能手机带来的冲击相对较小。²³维基百科、YouTube 和谷歌等互联网创新为求知欲旺盛的人带来了好处，但对生产力的影响却十分有限。更乐观的看法是，计算能力对生产力的影响（就像之前的煤电和电力一样）可能会在创新首次出现几十年后才会显现。

Across the world, the 2010s saw an unprecedented volume of money looking for investment opportunities. From Canadian pension funds to high-saving Chinese families, a global glut of savings began to push down interest rates. Harvard’s Larry Summers warned that the world may be entering a period of ‘secular stagnation’, in which productivity and growth had slowed. George Mason University’s Tyler Cowen argued that compared to the transformative twentieth-century breakthroughs of mass education, mass migration, electrification and transport, the economic gains from computerisation and smartphones were relatively modest.²³ Internet innovations such as Wikipedia, YouTube and Google had advantaged the intellectually curious, but had only a limited impact on productivity. A more optimistic view is that the productivity impacts of computing power – like coal power and electricity before it – could come decades after the innovation first emerged.

低利率对货币政策制定者构成挑战。英国央行经济学家安迪·霍尔丹分析了5000年前的历史数据，得出的结论是，利率从未如此低过。²⁴他将央行提高利率的尝试比作一个小孩的故事，他的风筝卡在树上，为了把风筝弄下来，他把一个东西一个地扔到树枝上。霍尔丹指出，资产购买、流动性计划和前瞻性指引在提高利率方面同样无效。到 2010 年代末，许多国家的央行行长都发现自己正在努力应对通货紧缩。

Low interest rates posed a challenge to monetary policymakers. Analysing historical data going back 5000 years, Bank of England economist Andy Haldane concluded that interest rates had never before been this low.²⁴ He likened central banks’ attempts to raise interest rates to the story of a child whose kite gets lodged in a tree and who throws one thing after another into the branches in his attempts to dislodge it. Asset purchases, liquidity schemes and forward guidance, Haldane noted, had been similarly ineffective at raising interest rates. By the late 2010s, central bankers in many countries found themselves grappling with deflation.

当时央行行长面临的一个常见问题是“零下限”——因为向某人收取负利率是件很棘手的事。如果我可以无成本地储存现金，我为什么要借给你，让你还给我比开始时更少的钱呢？央行行长转而采取“量化宽松”政策，购买金融资产以支持经济。到 2010 年代末，四大央行——美联储、英格兰银行、日本银行和欧洲央行——共持有超过 20 万亿美元的金融资产——这笔款项约相当于美国一年的经济产出。^二十五

A common problem for central bankers in this era was the ‘zero lower bound’ – arising from the fact that it’s tricky to charge someone a negative rate of interest. If I can store cash without cost, why should I lend it to you so you can give me back less money than I started with? Central bankers turned instead to ‘quantitative easing’, purchasing financial assets in an attempt to support the economy. By the end of the 2010s, four major central banks – the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank – collectively held more than US$20 trillion in financial assets – a sum approximately equal to the annual economic output of the United States.²⁵

这一时期的一些经济损失是自找的。在倡导全球减少贸易壁垒的努力长达半个多世纪之后，美国在 2018 年突然改变政策，对钢铁、铝和大量从中国进口的产品征收关税。宣布征收关税时，唐纳德·特朗普总统将其描述为惩罚外国人的一种方式，但事实上，成本主要由美国人承担。对于美国家庭来说，特朗普的关税是几十年来最大的增税之一。²⁶由于美国建筑业和汽车制造业等使用钢铁行业的工人数量远多于钢铁制造业，据估计，每增加一个就业岗位，就会有16个就业岗位消失。²⁷此外，贸易伙伴还征收了报复性关税，导致美国受影响产品的出口量减少了 10%。²⁸与军事战争一样，贸易战的输家往往多于赢家。

Some economic damage during this era was self-inflicted. After championing global efforts to reduce trade barriers for more than half a century, the United States abruptly reversed course in 2018, imposing tariffs on steel, aluminium and a plethora of imports from China. Announcing the tariffs, President Donald Trump characterised them as a way of punishing foreigners, but in fact the cost was largely borne by Americans. For US households, Trump’s tariffs constituted one of the largest tax increases in decades.²⁶ Because many more US workers are employed in steel-using sectors such as construction and car manufacturing than in steel manufacturing, it has been estimated that sixteen jobs were lost for every additional job created.²⁷ Furthermore, trading partners imposed retaliatory tariffs, reducing US export volumes by 10 per cent for the affected products.²⁸ Like military wars, trade wars tend to produce more losers than winners.

在 2016 年的公投中，52% 的英国人投票决定脱离欧盟，该决定将于 2020 年生效。英国脱欧导致许多英国公司将办事处迁往欧洲大陆，给进出口商带来了相当大的不确定性。英国脱欧阻碍了英国和欧洲大陆之间的人员、服务、商品和资本的自由流动。英国预算责任办公室估计，英国脱欧的长期成本占英国收入的 4%。²⁹经济学家几乎一致反对英国脱欧，但却无力对抗反建制运动情绪、对移民的强烈反对以及对国际机构的不信任。

In a 2016 referendum, 52 per cent of Britons voted to leave the European Union, which took effect in 2020. Brexit led many UK-based firms to shift offices to continental Europe and created considerable uncertainty for importers and exporters. Brexit impeded the free flow of people, services, goods and capital between the United Kingdom and continental Europe. The UK’s Office of Budget Responsibility puts the long-run cost of Brexit at 4 per cent of UK income.²⁹ Economists were almost universal in opposing Brexit, but were unable to counter a campaign driven by anti-establishment sentiments, a backlash against immigration and a distrust of international institutions.

在二十一世纪，经济学家将我们的注意力转向了从腐败到气候变化等一系列广泛的主题，而这些主题在前几代人看来可能超出了该学科的职权范围。经济学家承认纯理性模型的局限性，使用行为经济学来解释为什么人们经常储蓄太少而吃得太多。而且，就像围绕《谷物法》和《斯姆特霍利关税法》的辩论一样，特朗普关税和英国脱欧提醒我们，虽然开放可能是好的经济学，但孤立主义往往能赢得选举。

In the twenty-first century, economists turned our attention to a wide range of topics – from corruption to climate change – that might have been considered beyond the remit of the discipline in prior generations. Economists acknowledged the limitations of the purely rational model, using behavioural economics to explain why people often save too little and eat too much. And, like the debate over the Corn Laws and the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, the Trump tariffs and Brexit were a reminder that while openness may be good economics, isolationism often wins elections.

十三

13 疫情及后续

The Pandemic and Beyond

2020 年初，新冠疫情爆发，世界经济陷入 1930 年代大萧条以来最严重的衰退。随着各国实施封锁，2020 年第二季度全球收入下降了 5%。¹商业投资暴跌，旅游业和移民几乎停止，服务业支出大幅下降。所有发达经济体都陷入衰退。全球约有 4 亿个工作岗位流失。²为了支持家庭，各国政府向受影响的工人和企业提供了超过 10 万亿美元的支持。2019 年，全球政府债务相当于全球 10 个月的收入。2020 年，全球政府债务跃升至全球全年收入的水平。³

IN EARLY 2020, THE EMERGENCE OF COVID plunged the world economy into the worst downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930s. As countries locked down, global income in the second quarter of 2020 fell by 5 per cent.¹ Business investment plummeted, tourism and migration virtually ceased, and spending on services plunged. Every advanced economy entered recession. Across the world, around 400 million jobs were lost.² To support households, governments provided more than US$10 trillion in support to affected workers and firms. In 2019, global government debt was equivalent to ten months of worldwide income. In 2020, global government debt jumped to a full year of worldwide income.³

两项发明至关重要。COVID 测试有助于解决经济学家所说的“信息问题”——使人们能够在疾病早期自我隔离，以免感染他人。COVID 疫苗为接种者带来了巨大好处——将死亡几率降低到不到未接种疫苗的人。⁴疫苗还通过降低疾病传播率提供了显著的正外部性。由于这种正外部性，世界各国政府都免费提供疫苗，而不是要求人们付费购买。

Two inventions were crucial. COVID tests helped solve what economists refer to as an ‘information problem’ – making it possible for people to self-isolate in the early phase of the disease so as not to infect others. COVID vaccines provided a substantial benefit to those taking them – reducing the chance of death to less than one-tenth of the risk for unvaccinated people.⁴ Vaccines also provided a significant positive externality, by reducing the rate of disease spread. Because of this positive externality, governments around the world provided vaccines free, rather than asking people to pay for them.

对于货币政策制定者来说，新冠疫情的一个意外之处在于，随着封锁解除，通胀受到了影响。家庭释放了大量积压的支出，而俄罗斯入侵乌克兰导致能源价格飙升。突然之间，各国央行发现自己正在应对堪比 1970 年代的通胀。由于抑制通胀需要加息而不是降息，因此没有必要采取非常规货币政策。问题在于高利率给已经习惯了廉价资金的抵押贷款持有人和企业主带来了痛苦。许多人质疑央行为何没有早点采取行动，以及他们的预测为何错误地预期了低通胀和低利率。

To monetary policymakers, a surprise of COVID was the impact on inflation as lockdowns were lifted. Households unleashed a flood of pent-up spending, while Russia’s invasion of Ukraine caused energy prices to spike. Suddenly central banks found themselves dealing with inflation that rivalled that of the 1970s. Because curbing inflation called for interest rate rises rather than reductions, there was no need for unconventional monetary policy. The problem was the anguish that high rates caused to mortgage holders and business owners who had become accustomed to cheap money. Many people questioned why central banks hadn’t acted earlier, and why their forecasts had wrongly anticipated low inflation and low interest rates.

答案是经济学中的一个普遍挑战：预测很难。就像天气预报员和体育评论员一样，央行行长们并不总是能确定接下来会发生什么。正如棒球哲学家尤吉·贝拉曾经说过的那样，“预测很难，尤其是关于未来的预测。”学术经济学家往往对预测持怀疑态度，他们指出危机往往是由意外冲击引发的。冲突、流行病、饥荒、破产、违约和贸易战往往被只关注缓慢变化变量的经济模型所忽略。

The answer goes to a general challenge in economics: forecasting is hard. Like weather forecasters and sports pundits, central bankers can’t always be sure what’s around the corner. As baseball philosopher Yogi Berra once put it, ‘It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.’ Academic economists tend to be dubious of forecasts, noting that crises are often precipitated by unexpected shocks. Conflict, pandemics, famines, bankruptcies, defaults and trade wars are often missed by economic models that concentrate only on slow-moving variables.

除了被指责缺乏远见之外，央行行长们还被批评犯下了许多其他错误。为什么他们没有采取更多措施防止政府债务增加？为什么澳大利亚、爱尔兰和美国等地的央行允许房价在 21 世纪初的十年内翻倍？为什么央行允许家庭承担如此多的债务？

As well as being attacked for having imperfect foresight, central bankers have been criticised for a multitude of other sins. Why didn’t they do more to prevent the build-up of government debt? Why did central banks in places like Australia, Ireland and the United States allow house prices to double within a decade around the start of the millennium? Why did central banks allow households to take on so much debt?

答案是所谓的“丁伯根规则”，它简单地指出，如果你只有一个工具，那么你只能瞄准一个目标。中央银行的主要工具是利率。丁伯根规则指出，如果房价飞涨而通胀低于目标，中央银行就无法同时解决这两个问题。同样，如果家庭面临失控的通胀，而一些家庭的抵押贷款负担过重，中央银行必须选择解决哪个问题。

The answer is something known as the ‘Tinbergen Rule’, which simply notes that if you have only one tool, you can only target one objective. The primary tool for central banks is interest rates. The Tinbergen Rule points out that if house prices are skyrocketing while inflation is below the target, central banks can’t solve both problems. Similarly, if families are facing runaway inflation, yet some households are overstretched on their mortgages, central banks must choose which problem to solve.

新冠疫情期间，供应链堵塞的一个因素是许多市场高度集中。在美国，几乎所有婴儿配方奶粉都由少数几家公司生产，进口受到严格限制。当最大的制造商雅培因可能受到污染而关闭其最大的工厂时，这引发了一场危机。在高峰期，美国十分之七的超市没有婴儿配方奶粉。少数生产商造成了瓶颈，家长们为此付出了代价。

One contributing factor to supply chain blockages during the COVID pandemic was the high degree of concentration across many markets. In the United States, virtually all infant formula is made by a handful of companies, and imports are heavily restricted. When the largest manufacturer, Abbott, closed its biggest plant due to possible contamination, it caused a crisis. At its peak, seven out of ten US supermarkets carried no infant formula. The small number of producers had created chokepoints, and parents were paying the price.

“芝加哥学派”对竞争政策的看法——即垄断在许多情况下可以很好地服务于消费者——正受到越来越多的审视。从婴儿配方奶粉从木材（其中十分之九由四家公司生产）到棺材（其中排名前两家的生产商生产了全部棺材的五分之四），集中市场实际上是一种从摇篮到坟墓的现象。

The ‘Chicago School’ view of competition policy – that monopolies could serve consumers well in many instances – was coming under increasing scrutiny. From infant formula (where nine-tenths is made by four companies) to coffins (where the top two producers make four-fifths of all coffins), concentrated markets were literally a cradle-to-grave phenomenon.

市场集中度不仅仅是大公司超越竞争对手的结果。竞争管理机构和法院应用芝加哥学派的消费者福利标准，允许了大量合并，包括 Facebook 收购 Instagram、谷歌收购 YouTube 以及啤酒制造商百威英博收购 SABMiller。然而，经济学家现在担心市场集中度可能会产生其他不利影响。就年收入而言，最大的公司与国家规模相当。沃尔玛的经济规模与泰国相当。亚马逊的规模与奥地利相当。埃克森美孚的规模与秘鲁相当。也许，经济学家开始认为，大并不美好。

Market concentration wasn’t just the result of large firms outgrowing their competitors. Applying the Chicago School’s consumer welfare standard, competition authorities and courts had allowed a plethora of mergers, including Facebook’s purchase of Instagram, Google’s purchase of YouTube, and brewer AB InBev’s purchase of SABMiller. Yet economists were now concerned that market concentration might have other adverse impacts. In terms of annual income, the largest firms are on the scale of nations. Walmart is about the economic size of Thailand. Amazon is the size of Austria. ExxonMobil is the size of Peru. Perhaps, economists began to think, big wasn’t beautiful after all.

对市场主导地位的担忧在技术领域最为明显，因为该领域通常存在赢家通吃的局面。在发达国家，被俗称为“MAMAA”的五家公司——Meta、苹果、微软、Alphabet 和亚马逊——主宰着社交媒体、智能手机、软件、搜索和在线购物。在中国，被称为“BATX”的四家公司——百度、阿里巴巴、腾讯和小米——主宰着搜索、电子商务、社交媒体和智能手机。

The fear about market dominance was felt most keenly in technology, where a winner-takes-all dynamic often applies. In advanced nations, five firms known colloquially as ‘MAMAA’ – Meta, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon – dominate social media, smartphones, software, search and online shopping. In China, the four players known as ‘BATX’ – Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent and Xiaomi – dominate search, e-commerce, social media and smartphones.

经济学家越来越担心，集中化的市场不仅损害了工人的利益，也损害了消费者的利益。五分之一的美国工人在雇佣合同中都有一项条款，限制他们接受任何公司的工作，这些公司与现任雇主竞争。⁵硅谷公司之间秘密达成协议，互不雇佣对方的软件工程师，从而降低了员工的工资。琼·罗宾逊对买方垄断权的担忧至今仍具有现实意义。

Economists became increasingly concerned that concentrated markets hurt workers as well as consumers. One-fifth of US workers have a clause in their employment contract limiting their ability to take a job with any company that competes with their current employer.⁵ A clandestine set of deals between Silicon Valley firms not to hire each other’s software engineers reduced employees’ salaries. Joan Robinson’s concern about monopsony power remains highly relevant.

买方垄断也会损害供应商的利益。苹果的应用商店被形容为一个“围墙花园”，苹果向应用开发商收取高达 30% 的佣金，这些佣金来自应用开发商通过应用商店获得的任何收入。中国也出现了类似的担忧，阿里巴巴被发现阻止商家在竞争对手的平台上销售其商品，并被处以相当于 28 亿美元的罚款。这九家公司——MAMAA 和 BATX——是人工智能领域的全球领导者。因此，它们将从计算技术的突破中获益匪浅。⁶

Monopsony power can also hurt suppliers. Apple’s App Store has been described as a ‘walled garden’, in which Apple charges app developers up to 30 per cent of any revenue that they make through the app store. Similar concerns were being raised in China, where Alibaba was caught preventing merchants selling their goods on rival platforms, and fined the equivalent of US$2.8 billion. The nine firms – MAMAA and BATX – are among the world leaders in artificial intelligence. So they stand to gain dramatically from breakthroughs in computing technology.⁶

虽然许多人担心技术可能会让大型企业变得庞大，但技术进步可能会缩小一些公司的规模。罗纳德·科斯对企业边界的开创性分析提出，一项工作应该在公司内部完成还是外包取决于交易成本和信息成本。如果在线平台让招募非员工或与其他组织建立联系变得更加容易，那么它们最终可能会缩小公司规模。大多数 Meta 内容审核员都不为 Meta 工作。大多数亚马逊送货司机都不为亚马逊工作。未来，三井、太古和塔塔等多元化企业集团可能会与更专业的竞争对手展开斗争。

While many fear that technology may supersize the megacorps, technological advances could reduce the size of some companies. Ronald Coase’s seminal analysis of the boundaries of the firm proposed that whether a job should be done in-house or outsourced depends on transaction costs and information costs. If online platforms make it easier to tap non-employees or connect with other organisations, they could end up shrinking the firm. Most Meta content moderators don’t work for Meta. Most Amazon delivery drivers don’t work for Amazon. In the future, multifaceted corporate conglomerates such as Mitsui, Swire and Tata may struggle against more specialised competitors.

竞争政策并不是唯一受到计算能力和使用率不断提高影响的领域技术。数学教授汉娜·弗莱给出了一系列算法产生令人不安的结果的例子。⁷当非洲裔美国人在谷歌上搜索自己的名字时，他们比白人更有可能看到针对有犯罪记录的人的广告。与男性相比，女性不太可能在网上看到高薪高管职位的广告。

Competition policy isn’t the only area that is being affected by the increasing power and usage of computing technology. Mathematics professor Hannah Fry gives a series of examples in which algorithms have produced troubling results.⁷ When they googled their own names, African Americans were more likely than white Americans to see advertisements targeted at people with criminal records. Women were less likely than men to be served online advertisements for high-paying executive jobs.

有一次，英国超市乐购接到一位顾客的电话，她与丈夫共用一张超市会员卡，并在“我的最爱”区看到了避孕套。她告诉超市，这肯定是一个错误。事实并非如此，但超市悄悄地为数据错误道歉，而不是成为婚姻破裂的原因。在美国司法系统中，法官有时会根据计算一个人再次犯罪的可能性的算法做出判决。⁸然而，被告可能被拒绝获取导致该决定的信息。在中国，社会信用体系以“可信度”低为由拒绝了数百万公民乘坐飞机和高铁，这些“可信度”可能是由于横穿马路、未能探望年迈的父母或在网上批评政府。

In one incident, the British supermarket Tesco was contacted by a customer who shared a store loyalty card with her husband and had seen condoms in the ‘my favourites’ section. It must be a mistake, she told the supermarket. It wasn’t, but the supermarket quietly apologised for the data error, rather than be the cause of a marital rift. In the US justice system, judges sometimes make decisions based on algorithms that calculate the chances that a person will reoffend.⁸ Yet defendants can be refused access to the information that has led to the decision. In China, the social credit system has denied millions of citizens access to flights and high-speed rail trips on the basis of their low ‘trustworthiness’, which can be due to jaywalking, failing to visit one’s elderly parents, or criticising the government online.

社会心理学家 Shoshana Zuboff 将企业对私人数据的使用称为“监控资本主义”，并指出这导致了越来越多的定向广告和企业对用户数据的需求不断增长。⁹如上例所示，大数据有可能加剧不平等。然而，经济学家也在利用大数据集来回答以前无法解决的问题。一个例子是哈佛大学的拉吉·切蒂 (Raj Chetty)，其机会洞察实验室利用大数据来研究经济机会。

Social psychologist Shoshana Zuboff dubs the use of private data by corporations ‘surveillance capitalism’, noting the way that it is leading to increasingly targeted advertising and a growing corporate demand for user data.⁹ As the examples above show, big data has the potential to worsen inequality. Yet economists are also making use of large datasets to answer questions that were previously out of reach. One exemplar is Harvard’s Raj Chetty, whose Opportunity Insights laboratory uses big data to study economic opportunity.

切蒂的团队利用近 30 年来几乎所有美国人口的税收数据，分析了经济流动性，即人们在收入分配上从一代传到下一代的倾向。¹⁰他们发现，对于出生于 20 世纪 40 年代的孩子来说，近九成的孩子可以期望赚得比父母多。但对于出生于 20 世纪 80 年代的孩子来说，只有一半的孩子可以期望赚得比父母多。研究表明，社区对孩子有着强大的因果影响。他们绘制了全美各地的机会地图，报告称，贫困集中程度较低、收入不平等程度较低、学校较好、双亲家庭比例较大、犯罪率较低的县通常会为贫困家庭的孩子带来更好的结果。

Using tax data on almost the entire US population over nearly three decades, Chetty’s team analysed economic mobility – the propensity of people to move up or down the income distribution from one generation to the next.¹⁰ For children born in the 1940s, they showed, nearly nine in ten could expect to earn more than their parents. But for children born in the 1980s, only half could expect to earn more than their parents. The research showed that neighbourhoods have a powerful causal impact on children. Mapping opportunity across the United States, they reported that counties with less concentrated poverty, less income inequality, better schools, a larger share of two-parent families, and lower crime rates generally produce better outcomes for children in poor families.

在另一组研究中，切蒂和他的团队分析了 7000 多万美国居民的 Facebook 数据，结果表明，友谊网络具有强烈的阶级性。¹¹社会经济分布中处于前 10% 的人的朋友数量是处于后 50% 的人的朋友数量的两倍。富人和穷人的朋友也不同。处于社会经济分布顶端的人更有可能有大学朋友，而处于社会经济分布末端的人更有可能在邻居中结交亲密朋友。研究人员还能够计算出地方层面的友谊模式——表明美国中西部的人更有可能与不同社会阶层的人交朋友。

In another set of studies, analysing Facebook data for more than 70 million US residents, Chetty and his team showed that friendship networks are strongly class-based.¹¹ People in the top tenth of the socioeconomic distribution have twice as many friends who are also in the top tenth than they have friends in the bottom half of the distribution. The rich and poor also have different kinds of friends. Those at the top are more likely to have friends from university, while those at the bottom are more likely to have close friends in their neighbourhood. The researchers are also able to calculate friendship patterns at a local level – demonstrating that people in the US Midwest are more likely to be friends with people in a different social class.

法医经济学

FORENSIC ECONOMICS

法医经济学在令人惊奇的地方揭露了不法行为。¹²一项研究将滑雪胜地的降雪报告与政府气象站的降雪报告进行了比较。滑雪胜地报告的降雪量更多，周末的差距更大。另一项研究发现，与其他出版物相比，《葡萄酒观察家》杂志对在其页面上做广告的葡萄酒的评级更高。同样，个人理财杂志更有可能推荐其广告客户的基金。时尚杂志更倾向于展示其广告客户的服装。

Forensic economics has uncovered wrongdoing in surprising places.¹² One study compares snow reports from ski resorts with those from government weather stations. Ski resorts report more snowfall, and the gap is much larger on weekends. Another study finds that Wine Spectator magazine provides higher ratings – relative to other publications – to wines that advertise in its pages. Similarly, personal finance magazines are more likely to recommend the funds of their advertisers. Fashion magazines are more inclined to feature the outfits of their advertisers.

在花样滑冰比赛中，法医经济学发现，裁判倾向于给予来自自己国家的运动员更高的分数。

In figure skating, forensic economics finds that judges tend to give higher scores to athletes from their countries.

伦纳德·朱可夫斯基（Leonard Zhukovsky）/Shutterstock。

Leonard Zhukovsky / Shutterstock.

激励措施可能会扭曲行为。一项经济研究观察了房地产经纪人出售自己房屋的情况，发现经纪人的房屋在市场上停留的时间比平均水平长 10 天，售价高出 4%。教育经济学家发现，在学校举行高风险考试的日子里，他们更有可能停学成绩不佳的学生。学校在考试日也会提供高热量食物。

Incentives can distort behaviour. Observing what happens when real estate agents sell their own houses, an economic study reveals that agents’ homes stay on the market for ten days longer and sell for 4 per cent more than average. Education economists find that on days when schools have high-stakes tests, they are more likely to suspend poorly performing pupils. Schools also serve higher-calorie foods on test days.

法医经济学甚至可以揭露腐败。当印度尼西亚独裁者苏哈托遭受健康恐慌时，与政治相关的公司的股价也下跌了。当受到联合国武器禁运的国家冲突加剧时，武器制造商的股价上涨。研究人员根据心理学研究指出，人类在编造数字时存在偏见。我们过度使用某些数字（例如 7）和连续的数字对（例如 1-2 或 3-4）。尼日利亚和伊朗的选举结果显示出这些可疑的模式。瑞典和美国的选举结果则并非如此。数据越丰富，法医经济学就能揭示越多的不良行为。

Forensic economics can even unearth corruption. When Indonesian dictator Suharto suffered health scares, the share price of politically connected firms dropped too. When conflicts worsen in countries that are under a United Nations arms embargo, stock prices of arms manufacturers rise. Drawing on work in psychology, researchers noted that humans have a bias in making up numbers. We overuse certain digits (such as 7) and consecutive pairs (such as 1–2 or 3–4). Election results from Nigeria and Iran show these suspicious patterns. Results from elections in Sweden and the United States do not. The richer the data, the more that forensic economics will reveal about poor behaviour.

Chetty 的工作是经济学越来越注重数据的一个例子。在经济学期刊上，越来越少看到不使用数据来测试其预测而提出理论模型的研究。自 20 世纪 60 年代的学前研究以来，经济学家对随机实验的使用已大幅增加，研究人员也越来越善于使用自然实验来识别因果影响。计算能力的提高降低了分析庞大数据集的成本。我自己在 2004 年的博士研究分析了超过一百万人的数据集，而十年前，在笔记本电脑上是不可能完成的。¹³十年后，代码运行时间将缩短至数秒，而不再是数小时。大数据分析是摩尔定律的受益者。

Chetty’s work is an example of the way in which economics has become more data-focused. In economics journals, it is increasingly rare to see research that sets out a theoretical model without using data to test its predictions. Economists’ use of randomised experiments has grown massively since the preschool studies of the 1960s, and researchers have become more adept at using natural experiments to identify causal impacts. The rise in computing power has reduced the cost of analysing huge datasets. My own PhD research in 2004, analysing a dataset of more than one million people, could not have been done on a laptop a decade earlier.¹³ A decade later, the code would have run in seconds rather than hours. Big data analytics is a beneficiary of Moore’s Law.

大数据还能让人们对诸如性和种族等令人不适的话题产生深刻的见解。通过分析互联网搜索结果，塞思·斯蒂芬斯-大卫多维茨发现，在对同性恋最不宽容的地方，人们更有可能在谷歌上搜索“我的丈夫是同性恋吗？”这个问题。¹⁴种族主义笑话的搜索量与唐纳德·特朗普在 2016 年大选中的投票模式密切相关。家长搜索“我的儿子有天赋吗？”的可能性是搜索“我的女儿有天赋吗？”的两倍。家长搜索“我的女儿超重了吗？”的可能性也是搜索“我的儿子超重了吗？”的两倍。要减少种族主义、性别歧视和恐同症，首先必须了解问题所在。大数据可以到达调查无法到达的地方。

Big data is also producing insights on uncomfortable topics such as sex and race. Crunching results from internet searches, Seth Stephens-Davidowitz found that in places that are least tolerant of homosexuality, people are more likely to google the question ‘Is my husband gay?’¹⁴ Searches for racist jokes correlate strongly with voting patterns for Donald Trump in the 2016 election. Parents are twice as likely to search for ‘Is my son gifted?’ than ‘Is my daughter gifted?’. Parents are also twice as likely to search for ‘Is my daughter overweight?’ than ‘Is my son overweight?’ To reduce racism, sexism and homophobia, it is first vital to understand the problem. Big data makes it possible to go where surveys cannot.

卫星数据还揭示了经济繁荣的真相。夜晚，世界上富裕地区像圣诞树一样亮起来，而最贫穷的地区则一片漆黑。随着时间的推移，同一个国家也呈现出类似的模式：经济增长越快，夜间光照越多。在美国，卫星数据揭示了历史运输模式的遗留问题。当许多货物通过河流运输时，美国有些地方需要两艘船之间的搬运。在搬运停止一个多世纪后，这些地方仍然是繁荣的经济中心。¹⁵另一项研究分析了过去二十年来的全球卫星数据，发现独裁者更有可能就其国家的增长情况撒谎——报告的经济数据比卫星图像所显示的要好。¹⁶卫星图像也被研究人员用来研究巴西的森林砍伐和印度尼西亚的污染。这些图像现在足够精细，研究人员可以计算出乌干达个体农民拥有的树木数量，并测量出内罗毕贫民窟中哪些房屋已经升级了屋顶。¹⁷

Satellite data is also uncovering the truth about economic prosperity. At night, affluent parts of the world light up like a Christmas tree, while the poorest regions go dark. A similar pattern holds within the same country over time: faster growth is associated with more light at night. Within the US, satellite data reveals the legacy of historical transport patterns. Back when many goods were moved by river, there were certain locations in the US that required portage between two boats. More than a century after portage ceased, these places continue to be thriving economic centres.¹⁵ Another study, analysing global satellite data over two decades, found that dictators are more likely to lie about their country’s growth – reporting better economic numbers than their satellite images would suggest.¹⁶ Satellite images are also being used by researchers to study deforestation in Brazil and pollution in Indonesia. The images are now sufficiently fine-grained that they have allowed researchers to count the number of trees owned by individual farmers in Uganda, and to measure which houses in a Nairobi slum have upgraded their roofs.¹⁷

新类型的数据也提醒我们更新经济统计数据的重要性，以便衡量我们关心的事物。国民收入账户是在大多数工作都在农场或工厂的时候开发的。在线经济给会计师带来了新的挑战。在一项研究中，人们被问及一年内放弃各种免费互联网服务需要支付多少钱。¹⁸人回答说，他们必须支付 17,000 美元才能放弃搜索，8000 美元才能放弃电子邮件，3000 美元才能失去地图，1000 美元才能放弃流媒体视频。由于国家账户衡量的是增值，而不是消费者福祉，他们可能会错过这些重要的好处。

New kinds of data also remind us of the importance of updating economic statistics so that they measure what we care about. National income accounts were developed at a time when most jobs were on farms or in factories. The online economy poses new challenges to the bean-counters. In one study, people were asked how much they would have to be paid to give up various free internet services for a year.¹⁸ People responded that they would have to be paid US$17,000 to give up search, US$8000 to forego email, US$3000 to lose maps, and US$1000 to sacrifice streaming video. Because national accounts measure value-added, not consumer wellbeing, they may miss these important benefits.

经济统计严重忽视了无偿工作。如果一个男人付钱给女管家做饭、打扫房间和照顾孩子，那么她的收入就会被计入国民账户，她也会被视为劳动力的一部分。如果他们结婚，而她继续从事这项工作，那么她就不再获得工资（他们之间转移的任何资金都被视为家庭内部转移），她会被算作劳动力之外的人。¹⁹女权主义经济学家指出，无偿工作可能占世界工作总量的绝大部分。尽管奥克兰理工大学的玛丽莲·沃林等研究人员对经济统计数据的收集方式提出了有力的批评，但国民收入账户仍然包括制造手枪的男性的工作，但不包括母乳喂养婴儿的女性的工作。²⁰使用智能手机更好地捕捉人们如何利用时间，同时保护用户隐私，是实现经济统计现代化的关键前沿。

Unpaid work has been badly neglected in economic statistics. If a man pays a housekeeper to cook his dinner, clean his home and care for his child, then her income is included in the national accounts and she is regarded as part of the labour force. If they marry and she continues this work, then she no longer receives a wage (any money that moves between them is regarded as a transfer within the household), and she is counted as being outside the labour force.¹⁹ Feminist economists have pointed out that unpaid work may account for most of the world’s work. While researchers such as Auckland University of Technology’s Marilyn Waring have cogently critiqued the way that economic statistics are collected, it remains the case that national income accounts include the work of men who manufacture handguns but exclude the work of women who breastfeed babies.²⁰ Using smartphones to better capture how people use their time, while maintaining user privacy, is a key frontier in modernising our economic statistics.

14 经济学：过去、现在和未来

Economics: Past, Present and Future

经济学家马克斯·罗瑟曾经指出，新闻频率决定新闻报道。¹周刊的关注点与日报不同，日报的关注点又与社交媒体不同。但如果我们有一份每五十年出版一次的报纸会怎样？罗瑟认为，这样的报纸更有可能讨论长期的积极趋势。一份五十年报纸的头版可能不会报道名人八卦，而是报道全球儿童死亡率从 14% 下降到 4%，或者服务业就业现在占全球所有就业岗位的大多数。²

ECONOMIST MAX ROSER ONCE OBSERVED that news frequency shapes news coverage.¹ Weekly magazines have a different focus from daily papers, which in turn have a different focus from social media. But what if we had a newspaper that came out every fifty years? Roser argued that such a newspaper would be far more likely to discuss long-term positive trends. Instead of celebrity gossip, the front page of a fifty-year newspaper today might report on the global child mortality rate dropping from 14 per cent to 4 per cent, or the fact that services employment now constitutes a majority of all jobs worldwide.²

本书以光的故事作为开篇——光是技术如何将我们祖先的奢侈品变成如此便宜的东西的例子，以至于我们很少考虑它的成本。从长远来看，经济发展的大部分都是这样的。安妮女王的故事是儿童健康的进步的缩影——安妮女王是世界上最强大的她是一位同龄女性。1684 年至 1700 年间，她怀孕 17 次。除一次怀孕外，其余均以死产、流产或儿童死亡告终。三个世纪以来，即使是最贫穷的父母也不太可能失去孩子。卫生和医学的进步挽救了数百万人的生命。按实际价格计算，现在大多数国家的工人一天的收入比 1900 年的同行一周的收入还要高。

This book began with the story of light – an example of how technology has turned something that was a luxury for our ancestors to something that is so trivially cheap that we rarely think about its cost. In the long sweep, much of economic development is like this. Advances in child health are epitomised by the story of Queen Anne – the most powerful woman of her age. Between 1684 and 1700, she fell pregnant seventeen times. All but one of her pregnancies ended in stillbirth, miscarriage or childhood death. Three centuries on, even the poorest parents are unlikely to lose a child. Advances in sanitation and medicine have saved millions of lives. In real terms, workers in most countries now earn more in a day than their counterparts of 1900 earned in a week.

从犁耕到互联网，技术推动了经济活动的革命。社会也从比较优势中受益。在整个劳动力市场中，专业化在促进繁荣方面发挥了至关重要的作用。如果你磨练了一套技能，你就会本能地知道为什么一个由专家组成的社会比一群通才享有更高的生活水平。这一原则在国家之间和个人之间都适用。贸易使各国能够专注于他们最擅长的领域。拥有贸易伙伴不是威胁，而是机遇。贸易是现代经济的核心，也是它所创造的繁荣。贸易是近几十年来中国数亿人摆脱贫困的一个关键原因，也是中国在全球舞台上的影响力再次与其人口规模更加接近的原因。

From the plough to the internet, technology has driven revolutions in economic activity. Societies have also benefited from comparative advantage. Across the labour market, specialisation has played a vital role in increasing prosperity. If you’ve honed a set of skills, you’ll know instinctively why a society of specialists can enjoy higher living standards than a group of generalists. And this principle plays out across countries as it does among individuals. Trade allows countries to specialise in what they do best. Having a trading partner isn’t a threat, it’s an opportunity. Trade is at the heart of the modern economy, and the prosperity it has generated. Trade is a key reason why hundreds of millions of people in China have been pulled out of poverty in recent decades, and why China’s heft on the global stage again more closely matches its population size.

人们很容易将生活水平的提高视为理所当然。正如我们所见，封建主义、殖民主义和奴隶制的压迫力量曾经主宰着世界上许多民族的生活。心理学家史蒂芬·平克告诉我们，他最喜欢的词是百科全书的开头“天花是一种传染病”。³得益于人类的进步，这种在最后一个世纪导致 5 亿人死亡的疾病现在可以用过去时来提及。⁴平克指出，由于饮食改善和受教育程度提高，智商得分迅速上升，如今普通人的智商得分比一个世纪前 98% 的人口高。欧洲人被谋杀的几率不到 500 年前的十分之一。在全球范围内，人们对性别、种族和性取向的态度已经变得更加进步，以至于中东穆斯林年轻人的宽容程度与 20 世纪 60 年代的西欧年轻人差不多。几代人的时间里，抽水马桶、冰箱、空调和洗衣机从奢侈品变成了必需品。

It is easy to take for granted the improvement in living standards. As we have seen, the oppressive forces of feudalism, colonialism and slavery once dominated the lives of many of the world’s peoples. Psychologist Steven Pinker tells us that his favourite words are the encyclopedia entry that begins ‘Smallpox was an infectious disease’.³ Thanks to human progress, a disease that killed 500 million in its final century can now be referred to in the past tense.⁴ Pinker notes that, due to better diets and more schooling, IQ scores have risen so rapidly that the average person today would score better than 98 per cent of the population a century ago. The odds of a typical European being murdered are less than one-tenth of what they would have been 500 years ago. Across the globe, attitudes on gender, race and sexuality have become more progressive, such that young Middle Eastern Muslims are about as tolerant as young Western Europeans were in the 1960s. Within a few generations, flush toilets, refrigerators, air conditioners and washing machines went from luxuries to necessities.

但经济增长让我们更幸福了吗？20 世纪 70 年代，经济学家理查德·伊斯特林研究了早期跨国生活满意度调查，并得出结论：超过一定水平后，更多的钱不会让人们更幸福。“伊斯特林悖论”一直被人们接受，直到 21 世纪，基于更广泛调查的新分析表明，这一悖论并不成立。⁵在各个国家中，收入越高的人越幸福。在各个国家中，收入越高的人越幸福。

But has growth made us happier? In the 1970s, economist Richard Easterlin looked at early cross-national surveys of life satisfaction and concluded that beyond a certain point, more money did not make people any happier. The ‘Easterlin Paradox’ was accepted wisdom until the 2000s, when new analysis, based on much more extensive surveys, showed that it did not hold.⁵ Within countries, people with higher incomes are happier. Across countries, people in nations with higher incomes are happier.

除了幸福感以外，新数据还显示，在国内和国外，收入较高的人更有可能说自己感觉休息得很好、受到尊重、笑容满面、吃着美味的食物。⁶收入较高的人——以及收入较高的国家的人——不太可能说他们遭受身体疼痛、无聊或悲伤。在国家内部，人们收入较高的人更有可能说他们经历过爱情。对不起，保罗·麦卡特尼，金钱可以买到爱情。

More than happiness, this new data shows that within and across countries, people with more income are more likely to say that they feel well rested, that they are treated with respect, that they smile and laugh a lot, and that they eat good-tasting food.⁶ People with higher incomes – and people in nations with higher incomes – are less likely to say that they suffer physical pain, boredom or sadness. Within countries, people who have higher incomes are more likely to say that they experienced love. Sorry, Paul McCartney, money can buy you love.

虽然金钱仍然能买到更多幸福，但边际效用递减原则仍然适用。幸福感的增加似乎与收入的百分比增加大致成正比——这意味着收入增加 10% 给无家可归者和社交名流带来的幸福感提升是一样的。然而，这 10% 的增长意味着富人比穷人能赚更多的钱。因此，过去一代人中许多国家出现的不平等加剧可能对幸福产生了负面影响。重新分配福利国家和累进税制的最佳论据之一是，一美元能给原本没有多少美元的人带来更多快乐。

While money continues to buy more happiness, the principle of diminishing marginal utility still holds. Increases in happiness seem roughly proportional to the percentage increase in income – meaning that a 10 per cent increase in income buys the same happiness boost to a homeless person as it does to a socialite. Yet that 10 per cent increase equates to many more dollars for someone who is rich than for someone who is poor. Consequently, the increase in inequality that has occurred in many nations over the past generation might have had an adverse impact on happiness. One of the best arguments for a redistributive welfare state and progressive taxation is that a dollar brings more pleasure to someone who does not have many dollars to begin with.

国家间的收入差距比国家内部的差距还要大，西欧人均日收入目前为109美元，而拉美人均日收入仅为39美元，非洲仅为10美元。⁷美国居民一个月的产出几乎相当于尼日利亚人一年的产出。推动非洲经济增长的一个因素是城市化，因为人们从农村搬到城市时往往生产力更高。然而，目前非洲大陆只有一半的人口居住在城镇。⁸其中一个原因是非洲的土地所有权往往不明确，这使得人们不愿意投资住房，也限制了城市政府筹集房产税的能力。整理土地所有权制度听起来很平凡，但它对于非洲未来的繁荣至关重要。

Income gaps between countries are even larger than those within countries. Western European incomes now average US$109 a day, while incomes in Latin America average only US$39 a day, and in Africa just US$10 a day.⁷ The typical US resident produces almost as much output in a month as the average Nigerian does in a year. One factor driving growth in Africa is urbanisation, since people tend to be more productive when they move from a rural area to a city. Yet only half of the continent’s population currently lives in towns and cities.⁸ One reason is that African land ownership rights are often unclear, making people reluctant to invest in housing, and limiting the ability of city governments to raise property tax revenue. Sorting out land titling systems sounds mundane, but it will be fundamental to Africa’s future prosperity.

不平等加剧并不是引起经济担忧的唯一原因。经济学家乔治·阿克洛夫 (George Akerlof) 对身份经济学的研究强调了考虑人们如何看待自己的重要性。在标准经济模型中，工作的唯一意义在于赚取收入用于消费。但身份经济学提醒我们，许多人的身份是以他们生产的东西为中心，而不是以他们消费的东西为中心。我们更有可能问刚认识的人“你是做什么的？”而不是“你买什么？”因此，当技术和贸易这两股力量夺走了发达国家工厂的工作岗位时，告诉苦苦挣扎的中产阶级电视机越来越便宜，这无异于安慰。民粹主义政客的崛起在一定程度上是对失去稳定工薪阶层工作的强烈反对，也提醒人们低失业率对稳定社会的重要性。

The rise in inequality is not the only cause for economic concern. Research by economist George Akerlof on the economics of identity has highlighted the importance of considering how people perceive themselves. In the standard economic model, the only point of working is to earn income to consume. But the economics of identity reminds us that many people’s identity is centred around what they produce, rather than what they consume. We are more likely to ask someone we’ve just met ‘What do you do?’ than ‘What do you buy?’ So when the twin forces of technology and trade have taken away factory jobs in advanced nations, it’s cold comfort to tell the struggling middle class that televisions are getting cheaper. The rise of populist politicians is partly a backlash against the loss of secure working-class jobs, and a reminder of the importance of low unemployment to a stable society.

自卢德派以来，新技术的出现总是伴随着令人恐惧的失业预测，但这些预测并未成真。最新的挑战来自人工智能。OpenAI 的 ChatGPT 界面可以调试计算机代码、编写企业使命声明并总结新的科学进展。“GPT”代表生成式预训练变压器，但也可以代表通用技术。就像燃煤蒸汽机和电力一样，人工智能最终可能会带来变革。人工智能的广泛采用可能会提高平均收入，但许多工作可能会像接线员和灯塔看守人一样。经济学提醒我们，一种技术越便宜，越多的公司可能会采用它——而最大的收益将归于那些拥有机器的人。

Since the Luddites, new technologies have been accompanied by frightening forecasts of job losses that have not eventuated. The latest challenge is posed by artificial intelligence. OpenAI’s ChatGPT interface can debug computer code, write a corporate mission statement and summarise new scientific advances. ‘GPT’ stands for Generative Pre-trained Transformer, but it could also stand for general-purpose technology. Like coal-powered steam engines and electricity, artificial intelligence may ultimately be transformative. The widespread adoption of artificial intelligence is likely to boost average incomes, but many jobs could go the way of switchboard operators and lighthouse keepers. Economics reminds us that the cheaper a technology becomes, the more firms are likely to adopt it – with the biggest gains accruing to those who own the machines.

从长远来看，人工智能对人类也意味着灾难性的风险。⁹某个时候，智能机器可能会在所有可能的任务上胜过人类。不久之后，它们的能力与我们之间的差距将像我们与家养宠物之间的差距一样。当这种情况发生时，这些机器与我们拥有相同的价值观并愿意与人类和平共处将至关重要。

In the long run, artificial intelligence also represents a catastrophic risk to humanity.⁹ At some point, intelligent machines are likely to outperform humans at all possible tasks. Not long after that, the gap between their abilities and ours will be like the gap between us and our household pets. When this happens, it will be crucial that these machines share our values and are willing to peacefully coexist with humanity.

这是作者利用人工智能引擎DALL·E制作的世界上最后一张自拍照。

An artwork showing the world’s last selfie, produced by the author using artificial intelligence engine DALL·E.

DALL-E，在开放 AI 负责任许可下使用。

DALL-E, used under an Open AI Responsible Licence.

失控的人工智能可能是人类未来最大的长期威胁，但另一个关键的脆弱性来自气候变化。经济学家谈论“尾部风险”——出现非常糟糕结果的可能性很小。就全球变暖而言，尾部风险的出现是因为我们不知道未来会排放多少碳，也不知道地球会对此作出何种反应。进一步的不确定性来自潜在的负面反馈循环——例如格陵兰冰盖融化或亚马逊雨林消失。我们知道气候变化会带来坏影响——但它确实可能非常糟糕。¹⁰

Rogue artificial intelligence is probably the biggest long-term threat to humanity’s future, but another key vulnerability comes from climate change. Economists talk about ‘tail risk’ – small chances of very bad outcomes. In the case of global warming, the tail risks come because we do not know how much carbon will be emitted in the future and how the planet will react to it. Further uncertainty comes from potential adverse feedback loops – such as the melting of the Greenland ice sheet or the loss of the Amazon rainforest. We know that climate change will be bad – but it could be very bad indeed.¹⁰

当我们个人生活中面临小灾难时，经济思维会提醒我们购买保险——每年支付少量保费，以防失去家园或主要收入来源死亡。同样，在人类面临风险的情况下，我们现在应该在符合道德的人工智能和减少碳排放方面投入适度资金——以及减少其他生存风险，包括生物恐怖主义和核冲突。

When facing small chances of catastrophe in our personal lives, economic thinking reminds us to buy insurance – paying a small annual premium to insure against the potential loss of our home, or the death of the primary income earner. Similarly, in the case of risks to humanity, we should spend a modest amount now on ethical artificial intelligence and cutting carbon emissions – as well as on reducing other existential risks, including bioterrorism and nuclear conflict.

避免灾难将使人类能够利用经济学工具来解决更普通的问题。由于交通拥堵，伦敦、波士顿、巴黎和布鲁塞尔的平均车速约为每小时 18 公里（每小时 11 英里），这大致相当于 19 世纪马匹在这些街道上慢跑的速度。¹¹在德国，交通拥堵每年会浪费驾驶员 40 个小时的时间，在美国，这一数字为 51 个小时，在英国，这一数字为 80 个小时。¹²从多伦多到墨西哥城，减少交通拥堵将意味着数百万城市居民生活质量的极大改善。

Averting catastrophe will allow humanity to use the tools of economics to solve more prosaic problems. Due to traffic congestion, the average speed of traffic in London, Boston, Paris and Brussels is around 18 kilometres per hour (11 miles per hour), which is roughly the pace at which a horse might have trotted down those streets in the 1800s.¹¹ Traffic congestion costs the typical driver forty hours a year in Germany, fifty-one hours a year in the United States and eighty hours a year in the United Kingdom.¹² From Toronto to Mexico City, reducing traffic congestion would represent a major improvement in the quality of life for millions of city-dwellers.

可能发生的最糟糕的情况是什么？

WHAT’S THE WORST THAT COULD HAPPEN?

关于人工智能风险的讨论大多集中在“坏”结果上，包括错误信息、算法歧视和自动化带来的失业。但另一个危险来源是灾难的可能性。一旦人工智能超越人类智能，机器可能会加速远离我们，就像计算机在国际象棋和围棋等棋盘游戏中所做的那样。人工智能将是人类的最后发明。

Much of the discussion around the risk of artificial intelligence focuses on ‘bad’ outcomes, including misinformation, algorithmic discrimination and the loss of jobs to automation. But another source of danger is the chance of catastrophe. Once artificial intelligence exceeds human intelligence, machines may accelerate away from us, as computers have done in board games such as chess and Go. Artificial intelligence would be humanity’s last invention.

我们不可能知道这个转折点（科学家称之为“奇点”）之后会发生什么。未来会更像《星际迷航》或《终结者》吗？生产力会给每个人带来安宁的生活吗？还是超级智能机器会认为人类对于它们的目的来说是多余的？

It is impossible to know what lies beyond that transition point, which scientists have dubbed ‘the singularity’. Will the future look more like Star Trek or Terminator? Will productivity deliver lives of tranquillity to everyone, or will superintelligent machines decide that humanity is superfluous to their purposes?

研究不确定性的经济学家指出，考虑所有可能性，而不仅仅是最有可能的，是有用的。经济学家使用“预期价值”的概念，即将结果的成本或收益乘以其概率。如果有 1% 的机会赢得 1 亿美元，则预期价值为 100 万美元。同样，对于价值 1 亿美元的物品，如果损失的概率为 1%，则公平保险费为 100 万美元。

Economists who study uncertainty point out that it is useful to consider the full range of possibilities, not just the most likely. Economists use the notion of ‘expected value’, which involves multiplying the cost or benefit of an outcome by its probability. If there is a 1 per cent chance of winning $100 million, the expected value is $1 million. Similarly, the fair insurance premium for an item worth $100 million with a 1 per cent chance of loss would be $1 million.

对人工智能专家研究人员的调查发现，研究人员的平均预期奇点将出现在 2059 年。¹³中等水平的研究人员表示，出现“极其糟糕（例如人类灭绝）”结果的可能性为 5%。三分之二的人工智能研究人员认为，社会应该更加重视人工智能安全。从预期值的角度来看，即使是发生灾难的可能性很小，也会造成巨大的损失。

A survey of expert artificial intelligence researchers finds that the median researcher expects the singularity to occur in 2059.¹³ The median researcher says that there is a 5 per cent chance of an outcome that is ‘Extremely bad (e.g. human extinction)’. Two-thirds of artificial intelligence researchers believe that society should place greater priority on artificial intelligence safety. In expected value terms, even small chances of disaster have large costs.

从宏观经济角度来看，一个关键的挫折是，在大萧条发生近一个世纪后，经济学家未能控制住经济繁荣与萧条的循环。作为专业人士，我们应该对现代经济每隔十年或二十年仍然会产生一次经济危机感到失望。危机管理是现代政府职能的重要组成部分。将经济衰退抛诸脑后将标志着经济学的一项重大成就。

From a macroeconomic standpoint, a key frustration is that, nearly a century after the Great Depression, economists have failed to tame the boom-and-bust cycle. As a profession, we should be disappointed that modern economies still produce an economic crisis every decade or two. Crisis management is a significant part of the role of modern governments. Putting recessions in the rear-view mirror will mark a major achievement in economics.

生活在资本主义经济中，人们很容易将市场视为理所当然。当我们去超市时，我们假设超市会储备我们想要的每种产品。在新冠疫情期间，商店的卫生纸一度售罄，人们对此感到震惊。尽管百年不遇的疫情爆发，几周之内供应就恢复正常。“看不见的手”的运作曾让共产党官员感到困惑。苏联解体后，一位俄罗斯官员联系了一位英国经济学家，问道：“谁负责向伦敦民众供应面包？”¹⁴进入二十一世纪，俄罗斯和中国经济已从共产主义向资本主义转变，但两国都远未达到开放民主的程度。

Living in a capitalist economy, it is easy to take markets for granted. When we go to the supermarket, we assume that it will stock abundant quantities of every product we want. During the COVID crisis, people were shocked when stores briefly ran out of toilet paper. Within weeks, supplies were back to normal, despite the onset of a once-in-a-century pandemic. The workings of the ‘invisible hand’ once bewildered communist officials. After the breakup of the Soviet Union, one Russian official contacted a British economist, asking, ‘Who is in charge of the supply of bread to the population of London?’¹⁴ In the twenty-first century, the Russian and Chinese economies have transitioned from communism to capitalism, yet both are far from open democracies.

1946 年，美国记者亨利·哈兹利特 (Henry Hazlitt) 撰写了《一课经济学》，其中的教训是市场价格反映了机会成本。七十年后，昆士兰大学的约翰·奎金 (John Quiggin) 撰写了《两课经济学》，其中的第二课是市场价格和真实价值之间有时会存在差距。哈兹利特解释了市场为何能促进增长，这是资本主义经济能够产生生活水平高于共产主义经济体。奎金解释了市场如何失灵，产生污染、失业和霸凌垄断。这本书讲述了故事的两个方面——开放市场如何使数百万人摆脱贫困，以及为什么解决市场失灵对经济繁荣至关重要。资本主义并不能保证那些缺乏资本的人的福祉。

In 1946, US journalist Henry Hazlitt wrote Economics in One Lesson, the lesson being that market prices reflect opportunity costs. Seven decades later, the University of Queensland’s John Quiggin wrote Economics in Two Lessons, the second lesson being that there is sometimes a wedge between market prices and true value. Hazlitt showed why markets foster growth, a key reason why capitalist economies have produced higher living standards than communist economies. Quiggin explained how markets can fail, producing pollution, unemployment and bullying monopolies. This book has told both sides of the story – how open markets have brought millions out of poverty, and why it is essential to address market failures for economies to prosper. Capitalism doesn’t guarantee the wellbeing of those who lack capital.

思考政府角色的一种方式是将其视为风险管理者：提供社会保险，以防范地震、疾病和经济衰退等各种风险。标准的政府支付并不是降低风险的唯一方法。一些国家使用收入分担贷款（只有借款人的收入超过合理门槛时才需要偿还）来代替大学贷款。经济学家建议，收入分担贷款也可用于向遭受旱灾的农民、陷入困境的企业或经济落后地区提供援助。¹⁵

One way to think about the role of government is as a risk manager: providing social insurance against risks as diverse as earthquakes, diseases and recessions. Standard government payments are not the only way to mitigate risk. Income-contingent loans – in which repayments only become due when the borrower’s income passes a reasonable threshold – are used by some countries in place of college loans. Economists have suggested that income-contingent loans might also be used to provide assistance for drought-stricken farmers, struggling businesses or economically disadvantaged regions.¹⁵

经济的故事也是创新的故事。二十世纪初，世界上没有飞机，没有收音机，几乎没有汽车。到二十世纪末，我们用支持 wifi 的笔记本电脑上网，乘坐喷气式飞机去地球另一端开会，城市里到处都是摩天大楼。从空调到抗生素，从铁丝网到哈伯-博世法，新技术改变了我们的生活。技术也使市场更好地运作。一项研究发现，当印度渔业引入移动电话服务时，价格趋于一致，浪费现象几乎被消除。¹⁶技术使消费者和生产者同样受益。

The story of economics is also the tale of innovation. At the start of the twentieth century, the world had no planes, no radios and hardly any cars. By the end of the century, we surfed the internet on wifi-enabled laptops, flew on jet planes to meetings on the other side of the globe, and filled cities with skyscrapers. From air conditioners to antibiotics, barbed wire to the Haber-Bosch process, new technologies have reshaped our lives. Technologies have made markets work better too. One study found that when mobile phone service was introduced in the Indian fishing industry, prices converged and wastage was virtually eliminated.¹⁶ Technology benefited consumers and producers alike.

创新很少仅仅依靠一个天才的辛勤工作。¹⁷技术发展并非仅仅是古腾堡、居里夫人、爱迪生、洛夫莱斯、盖茨、乔布斯、杜德娜和马斯克的功劳。更常见的是，技术突破发生在合作团队中。真空管和电视依赖于多家公司，而大量其他创新（包括雷达、互联网、细菌理论、心脏起搏器、磁共振成像和量子力学）则来自政府机构和大学等非市场机构。智能手机的关键技术（包括 GPS、语音激活个人助理和触摸屏显示器）由政府资助。创新经济学的核心问题是政府如何继续促进此类研究。

Innovation rarely involves just the hard work of a lone genius.¹⁷ Technological development isn’t solely the work of Gutenberg, Curie, Edison, Lovelace, Gates, Jobs, Doudna and Musk. More commonly, technological breakthroughs occur in collaborative teams. The vacuum tube and the television depended on multiple firms, while a plethora of other innovations (including radar, the internet, germ theory, the pacemaker, magnetic resonance imaging and quantum mechanics) flowed out of non-market institutions such as government agencies and universities. Key technologies that power your smartphone – including GPS, voice-activated personal assistant and touchscreen display – were funded by government. At the heart of the economics of innovation is the question of how governments can continue to foster this kind of research.

经济学为生活的各个方面提供了实用建议。一些选股者声称，他们可以把握投资时机，在高峰时卖出，在低谷时买入。然而，证据表明，股价并非按照可预测的周期波动，而是“随机波动”。就连约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯——这位为平抑商业周期做出最大贡献的 20 世纪经济学家——也放弃了商业周期投资的想法。¹⁸

Economics has practical advice for all aspects of life. Some stock-pickers claim that they can time their investing to sell at the peak and buy at the trough. Yet the evidence suggests that, rather than moving in predictable cycles, share prices follow a ‘random walk’. Even John Maynard Keynes – the twentieth-century economist who did most to help smooth the business cycle – gave up on the idea of business cycle investing.¹⁸

一开始，我说这本书的目的是做三件事：讲述资本主义和市场体系如何出现的故事；讨论塑造资本主义和市场体系的关键思想和人物。经济学学科；并概述经济力量如何影响世界历史。

At the outset, I said that this book aimed to do three things: tell the story of how capitalism and the market system emerged; discuss the key ideas and people who shaped the discipline of economics; and outline how economic forces have affected world history.

我希望，在阅读这本书时，你能对人类历史有一点不同的看法。当你看世界地图时，回想一下大陆的形状如何帮助确定谁殖民了谁。当你看到镜子时，想想它的发明是如何创造消费文化的。当你使用大型科技平台时，想想你实际上是用数据而不是现金支付的。认识到你很幸运生活在大多数人类都能上学、接种疫苗和上网的时代。

I hope that, in reading it, you see the history of humanity a little differently. When you look at a map of the world, recall how the shape of continents helped determine who colonised who. When you see a mirror, think about how its invention created consumer culture. When you use a big tech platform, consider the way in which you are effectively paying with your data rather than with cash. Recognise your good fortune to live at a time when most of humanity has access to schools, vaccines and the internet.

现代经济学的发展与工业革命同时发生，但直到大萧条时期，经济学家才对商业周期有了深刻的理解。早期经济学家沉迷于市场的效率，低估了市场失灵的可能方式，并过早地否定了政府在改善市场运作方面的作用。最近的研究探讨了垄断的危险和气候变化的风险。行为经济学现在已成为课程的标准部分，大数据集的分析已成为许多现代经济学家工作的核心。市场设计师率先开发了许多肾脏捐赠所依赖的匹配算法。拍卖专家设计了拍卖会，通过出售电磁频谱权为政府筹集了数十亿美元。发展经济学家进行了随机试验，以拯救生命并提高收入。

The development of modern economics coincided with the industrial revolution, but it was not until the Great Depression that economists developed a deep understanding of the business cycle. Entranced by the efficiency of markets, early economists underestimated the ways in which market failure could occur, and were too quick to dismiss the role of government in making markets work better. More recent research has explored the dangers of monopolies and the risks of climate change. Behavioural economics is now a standard part of the curriculum, and the analysis of large datasets has become central to the work of many modern economists. Market designers have pioneered the matching algorithms that underpin many kidney donations. Auction experts have devised auctions that raise billions of dollars for government from the sale of electromagnetic spectrum rights. Development economists have run randomised trials that save lives and raise incomes.

由于我们大多数人不会成为经济学研究人员，经济学最大的贡献是帮助我们过上更好的生活。在做出棘手的决定时，要权衡成本和收益。考虑机会成本——你放弃了什么？考虑边际——问问自己是否值得再多拥有一件东西。不要忘记外部因素——你的决定对其他人产生的积极和消极影响。从教育到创业，从社交到股票市场，经济学可以帮助你过上更好的生活。

Since most of us will not become economics researchers, the biggest contribution of economics is in helping us to live a better life. When making a tricky decision, weigh the costs and benefits. Consider the opportunity costs – what are you giving up? Think on the margin – asking whether one more of something is worth having. And don’t forget externalities – the positive and negative impacts of your decisions on other people. From education to entrepreneurship, from socialising to the share market, economics can help you live a better life.

致谢

Acknowledgements

现代经济学研究最好的发展之一是越来越多的研究成果是合作完成的。我从我的合作者那里学到了很多经济学知识，并感谢许多对话，这些对话塑造了我们的研究并使我成为了更好的经济学家。还要感谢我的议会同事——经济学家和非经济学家——他们鼓励我将经济视角带入我们的讨论中。在 Black Inc.，Chris Feik、Kirstie Innes-Will 和 Jo Rosenberg 团队帮助我完善了我的论点并塑造了我的文章。

One of the best developments in modern economic scholarship is that an increasing share of research is co-authored. I have learned much of my economics from my collaborators and am grateful for the many conversations that have shaped our research and made me a better economist. Thanks too to my parliamentary colleagues – economists and non-economists – who have encouraged me to bring an economic perspective to our deliberations. At Black Inc., the team of Chris Feik, Kirstie Innes-Will and Jo Rosenberg have helped sharpen my arguments and shape my prose.

Jeff Borland、Paul Burke、Wendy Carlin、Bruce Chapman、Selwyn Cornish、Guido Erreygers、David Galenson、Joshua Gans、Ross Gittins、Bob Gregory、Nicholas Gruen、Dan Hamermesh、Tim Hatton、Richard Holden、Sebastian Leigh、Jan Libich、Xin Meng、Alex Millmow、Christine Neill、Alberto Posso、Adam Triggs 和 Justin Wolfers 为早期草稿提供了宝贵的意见。特别感谢我的父母 Barbara 和 Michael Leigh，感谢他们的热情鼓励和详细反馈。

Jeff Borland, Paul Burke, Wendy Carlin, Bruce Chapman, Selwyn Cornish, Guido Erreygers, David Galenson, Joshua Gans, Ross Gittins, Bob Gregory, Nicholas Gruen, Dan Hamermesh, Tim Hatton, Richard Holden, Sebastian Leigh, Jan Libich, Xin Meng, Alex Millmow, Christine Neill, Alberto Posso, Adam Triggs and Justin Wolfers provided valuable comments on earlier drafts. Special thanks to my parents, Barbara and Michael Leigh, for their loving encouragement and detailed feedback.

本书献给我的妻子格温妮丝和我们的三个儿子扎卡里、西奥多和塞巴斯蒂安。我希望你们成长的社会是这样的：良好的经济政策将外部因素内化，市场给予你们充足的选择，经济学为我们这个非凡的世界提供令人眼花缭乱的见解。

This book is dedicated to my wife, Gweneth, and our three boys, Zachary, Theodore and Sebastian. I hope that you grow up in a society in which good economic policy internalises the externalities, the market gives you choices aplenty, and economics provides dazzling insights on our remarkable world.

笔记

Notes

介绍

INTRODUCTION

1. William Nordhaus，1997 年，《实际产出和实际工资指标能反映现实吗？照明的历史表明并非如此》，载 William Nordhaus 和 Charles Hulten（编），《新商品经济学》，芝加哥大学出版社，芝加哥，第 29-66 页。

1. William Nordhaus, 1997, ‘Do real-output and real-wage measures capture reality? The history of lighting suggests not’ in William Nordhaus and Charles Hulten (eds), The Economics of New Goods, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, pp. 29–66.

2.微观经济学和宏观经济学的融合由来已久。有关保罗·萨缪尔森 1948 年的新古典主义综合理论以及通过核心课程教授现代经济学的讨论，请参阅 Samuel Bowles 和 Wendy Carlin，2020 年，《学生在经济学 101 中学到什么：是时候改变了》，《经济文献杂志》，58(1)：176–214。

2. The blending of microeconomics and macroeconomics has a long history. For a discussion of Paul Samuelson’s 1948 Neoclassical Synthesis and the teaching of modern economics through the CORE curriculum, see Samuel Bowles and Wendy Carlin, 2020, ‘What students learn in economics 101: Time for a change’, Journal of Economic Literature, 58(1): 176–214.

3.引自 Avinash Dixit，2014 年，《微观经济学：非常简短的介绍》，牛津大学出版社，牛津，第 50 页。

3. Quoted in Avinash Dixit, 2014, Microeconomics: A Very Short Introduction, Oxford University Press, Oxford, p. 50.

4. Jeff Borland，2008 年，《微观经济学：案例研究与应用》，Cengage，墨尔本，第 19 页。

4. Jeff Borland, 2008, Microeconomics: Case Studies and Applications, Cengage, Melbourne, p. 19.

5. Joshua Gans 和 Andrew Leigh，2009 年，《出生于 7 月 1 日：一项（非）自然的出生时间实验》，《公共经济学杂志》，93.1–2：246–63。

5. Joshua Gans and Andrew Leigh, 2009, ‘Born on the first of July: An (un)natural experiment in birth timing’, Journal of Public Economics, 93.1–2: 246–63.

6. Wojciech Kopczuk 和 Joel Slemrod，2003 年，《为节省税款而死：来自遗产税申报表的死亡弹性证据》，《经济学和统计学评论》 85(2)：256-65。

6. Wojciech Kopczuk and Joel Slemrod, 2003, ‘Dying to save taxes: Evidence from estate-tax returns on the death elasticity’, Review of Economics and Statistics 85(2): 256–65.

7. Lucy Black，2020 年，《挑选产品》，长江商学院知识，11 月 19 日。

7. Lucy Black, 2020, ‘Picking a product’, CKGSB Knowledge, 19 November.

8. Benjamin Zhang，2017 年，《特朗普刚刚利用波音的新型全球客机攻击全球化》，《商业内幕》，2 月 18 日。

8. Benjamin Zhang, 2017, ‘Trump just used Boeing’s new global airliner to attack globalization’, Business Insider, 18 February.

9. Thomas Thwaites，2011，《烤面包机项目。或者从头开始构建简单电器的英勇尝试》，普林斯顿建筑出版社，普林斯顿，新泽西州。

9. Thomas Thwaites, 2011, The Toaster Project. Or A Heroic Attempt to Build a Simple Electric Appliance from Scratch, Princeton Architectural Press, Princeton, NJ.

10 . 2009 年英国的平均周薪约为 490 英镑，或 9 个月 19,000 英镑。Thwaites 的零件和差旅费总计 1187 英镑。当我通过电子邮件向他核实这些数字时，Thwaites 讽刺地指出，我估计的 20,000 英镑正是他将烤面包机卖给 V&A 博物馆的价格。

10. The median UK weekly wage in 2009 was around £490, or £19,000 for nine months. Thwaites’s parts and travel totalled £1187. When I emailed him to check these figures, Thwaites wryly noted that my estimate of £20,000 was precisely the price at which he had sold the toaster to the V&A Museum.

1. 走出非洲，走进农业

1. OUT OF AFRICA AND INTO AGRICULTURE

1. Carina Schlebusch、Helena Malmström、Torsten Günther、Per Sjödin 等人，2017 年，《南部非洲古代基因组估计现代人类分化时间为 35 万至 26 万年前》，《科学》 358(6363)：652–5。

1. Carina Schlebusch, Helena Malmström, Torsten Günther, Per Sjödin, et al., 2017, ‘Southern African ancient genomes estimate modern human divergence to 350,000 to 260,000 years ago’, Science 358(6363): 652–5.

2. Nicholas R. Longrich，2020 年，“我们什么时候成为真正的人类？化石和 DNA 能告诉我们现代智力的进化过程”，《对话》，9 月 9 日。

2. Nicholas R. Longrich, 2020, ‘When did we become fully human? What fossils and DNA tell us about the evolution of modern intelligence’, The Conversation, 9 September.

3. David Baker，2022 年，《世界最短历史》，Black Inc.，墨尔本，第 110 页。

3. David Baker, 2022, The Shortest History of the World, Black Inc., Melbourne, p. 110.

4. Caleb E. Finch，2010 年，《人类寿命的演变和老龄化疾病：感染、炎症和营养的作用》，《美国国家科学院院刊》 107，增刊 1：1718–24。

4. Caleb E. Finch, 2010, ‘Evolution of the human lifespan and diseases of aging: Roles of infection, inflammation, and nutrition’, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 107, suppl 1: 1718–24.

5. Steven Pinker，2011，《人性中的善良天使：暴力为何减少》，纽约维京出版社。另一篇论文将这一数字定为 2%，但仍然远高于现代：Mark Pagel，2016，《人类血统深处的致命暴力》，《自然》 538（7624）：180-1。

5. Steven Pinker, 2011, The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined, Viking, New York. Another paper puts the figure at 2 per cent, which is still considerably higher than in modern times: Mark Pagel, 2016, ‘Lethal violence deep in the human lineage’, Nature 538(7624): 180–1.

6.Paul Salopek，2018 年，《沉默的城市》，《国家地理》，8 月 31 日。

6. Paul Salopek, 2018, ‘Cities of silence’, National Geographic, 31 August.

7.同上。

7. Ibid.

8. Hetalben Sindhav，2016，《印度河流域文明（哈拉帕文明）》，国际社会影响杂志1(2): 69–75。

8. Hetalben Sindhav, 2016, ‘The Indus Valley Civilisation (Harappan Civilisation)’, International Journal of Social Impact 1(2): 69–75.

9. Philip Coggan，2020年，《更多：从铁器时代到信息时代的世界经济史》，阿歇特出版公司，纽约，第 26 页。

9. Philip Coggan, 2020, More: A History of the World Economy from the Iron Age to the Information Age, Hachette, New York, p. 26.

10.Jeremy Cherfas，1989 年，《沙漠坚果》，《新科学家》，8 月 19 日，第 44-7 页。

10. Jeremy Cherfas, 1989, ‘Nuts to the desert’, New Scientist, 19 August, pp. 44–7.

11. Melinda A. Zeder，2011，《近东农业的起源》，《当代人类学》 52（S4）：S221–S235。

11. Melinda A. Zeder, 2011, ‘The origins of agriculture in the Near East’, Current Anthropology 52 (S4): S221–S235.

12 . 吴双蕾、魏永平、Brian Head、赵燕和 Scott Hann，2019，《公元前 8000 年至公元 1911 年中国古代农业和水利技术的发展》，Palgrave Communications 5(1): 1–16。

12. Shuanglei Wu, Yongping Wei, Brian Head, Yan Zhao and Scott Hann, 2019, ‘The development of ancient Chinese agricultural and water technology from 8000 BC to 1911 AD’, Palgrave Communications 5(1): 1–16.

13.蒂姆·哈福德，2017 年，《犁如何使现代经济成为可能》，BBC 国际服务，《成就现代经济的 50 件事》，11 月 27 日。

13. Tim Harford, 2017, ‘How the plough made the modern economy possible’, BBC World Service, 50 Things That Made the Modern Economy, 27 November.

14 .詹姆斯·伯克，1978 年，《Connections》，麦克米伦，伦敦，第 12 页。

14. James Burke, 1978, Connections, Macmillan, London, p. 12.

15. Alberto Alesina、Paola Giuliano 和 Nathan Nunn，2013 年，《论性别角色的起源：女性和犁》，《季刊经济学》 128(2)：469–530。

15. Alberto Alesina, Paola Giuliano and Nathan Nunn, 2013, ‘On the origins of gender roles: Women and the plough’, Quarterly Journal of Economics 128(2): 469–530.

16 .弗朗索瓦·彼得·雷蒂夫 (François Pieter Retief) 和路易丝·西利尔斯 (Louise Cilliers)，2006 年，“凯撒的死亡原因（公元前 27 年 - 公元 476 年）” 《神学学报》 26(2)：89-106。

16. François Pieter Retief and Louise Cilliers, 2006, ‘Causes of death among the Caesars (27 BC – AD 476)’ Acta Theologica 26(2): 89–106.

17。平均身高从男性的 5 英尺 10 英寸（178 厘米）和女性的 5 英尺 6 英寸（168 厘米）下降到 5 英尺 5 英寸（165 厘米）和 5 英尺 1 英寸（155 厘米）：Michael Hermanussen 和 Fritz Poustka，2003 年，《早期欧洲人的身材》，《激素》（雅典）2(3): 175–8。

17. Average height went down from 5’10” (178 cm) for men and 5’6” (168 cm) for women to 5’5” (165 cm) and 5’1” (155 cm): Michael Hermanussen and Fritz Poustka, 2003, ‘Stature of early Europeans’, Hormones (Athens) 2(3): 175–8.

18 . 农业革命的短期影响和长期影响之间的差异是贾雷德·戴蒙德将其描述为人类最严重错误的原因：贾雷德·戴蒙德，1999 年，《人类历史上最严重的错误》，《探索杂志》，5 月 1 日。例如，如果没有农业革命，世界就不太可能从戴蒙德的精彩著作中受益。

18. The difference between the short-term and long-term impacts of the agricultural revolution is why Jared Diamond is wrong to describe it as the worst mistake of the human race: Jared Diamond, 1999, ‘The worst mistake in the history of the human race’, Discover Magazine, 1 May. For example, without the agricultural revolution, it is unlikely that the world would have had the benefit of Diamond’s brilliant writings.

19 . 公元 6 至 10 世纪，水磨坊在欧洲广泛使用。到 1086 年，征服者威廉对英格兰进行“末日审判书”调查时，他发现平均每个英国村庄都有近两座水磨坊：Rondo Cameron，1989 年，《简明世界经济史：从旧石器时代到现在》，牛津大学出版社，纽约和牛津，第 71 页。

19. Between the sixth and tenth centuries, watermills were widely adopted across Europe. By the time William the Conqueror carried out his ‘Domesday Book’ survey of England in 1086, he found an average of almost two watermills for every English village: Rondo Cameron, 1989, A Concise Economic History of the World: From Paleolithic Times to the Present, Oxford University Press, New York and Oxford, p. 71.

20. Laurence Iannaccone，1998，《宗教经济学导论》，《经济文献杂志》，36(3): 1465–95。

20. Laurence Iannaccone, 1998, ‘Introduction to the economics of religion’, Journal of Economic Literature, 36(3): 1465–95.

21.皮尤研究中心，2017 年，《变化中的全球宗教格局》，皮尤研究中心，华盛顿特区。

21. Pew Research Center, 2017, The Changing Global Religious Landscape, PEW Research Center, Washington DC.

22.Cameron，1989，第83页。

22. Cameron, 1989, p. 83.

23 . Donald Kagan，1982 年，《最早硬币的日期》，《美国考古学杂志》 86(3): 343–60。

23. Donald Kagan, 1982, ‘The dates of the earliest coins’, American Journal of Archaeology 86(3): 343–60.

24 . Neil Faulkner，2012 年，《古代奥运会游客指南》，耶鲁大学出版社，康涅狄格州纽黑文，第 126 页。

24. Neil Faulkner, 2012, A Visitor’s Guide to the Ancient Olympics, Yale University Press, New Haven, CT, p. 126.

25.此估计基于罗马皇帝戴克里先（公元 284 年至 305 年在位）颁布的法令。请参阅 Coggan，2020 年，第 32 页。

25. This estimate is based on edicts issued by Roman Emperor Diocletian, who ruled from 284 to 305 CE. See Coggan, 2020, p. 32.

2. 大运河、印刷机和瘟疫

2. THE GRAND CANAL, THE PRINTING PRESS AND THE PLAGUE

1.Cameron，1989年，第83页。

1. Cameron, 1989, p. 83.

2. Yiming Cao 和 Shuo Chen，2022 年，《运河上的叛乱：1650-1911 年中国贸易渠道中断和社会冲突》，《美国经济评论》，112(5)：1555-90。

2. Yiming Cao and Shuo Chen, 2022, ‘Rebel on the canal: Disrupted trade access and social conflict in China, 1650–1911’, American Economic Review, 112(5): 1555–90.

3.这些数字以 2011 年美元计算，取自 Jutta Bolt 和 Jan Luiten van Zanden，2020 年，《麦迪逊式的世界经济演变估计。2020 年最新更新》，麦迪逊项目数据库，格罗宁根大学，格罗宁根。

3. These figures are in 2011 US dollars and are drawn from Jutta Bolt and Jan Luiten van Zanden, 2020, ‘Maddison style estimates of the evolution of the world economy. A new 2020 update’, Maddison Project Database, University of Groningen, Groningen.

4 . Niall Kishtainy，2017 年，《经济学简史》，耶鲁大学出版社，纽黑文，第 17 页。

4. Niall Kishtainy, 2017, A Little History of Economics, Yale University Press, New Haven, p. 17.

5. Diego Puga 和 Daniel Trefler，2014 年，“国际贸易和制度变革：中世纪威尼斯对全球化的反应”，季刊经济学129(2): 753–821。

5. Diego Puga and Daniel Trefler, 2014, ‘International trade and institutional change: Medieval Venice’s response to globalization’, Quarterly Journal of Economics 129(2): 753–821.

6. Miles Corak，2013 年，《代际不平等》，载 Robert Rycroft 主编，《21 世纪不平等、贫困与歧视的经济学》，ABC-CLIO，加利福尼亚州圣巴巴拉，第 107-26 页。

6. Miles Corak, 2013, ‘Inequality from generation to generation’, in Robert Rycroft (ed.), The Economics of Inequality, Poverty, and Discrimination in the 21st Century, ABC-CLIO, Santa Barbara, CA, pp. 107–26.

7. Gregory Clark，2014 年，《儿子也崛起：姓氏与社会流动的历史》，普林斯顿大学，新泽西州普林斯顿。

7. Gregory Clark, 2014, The Son Also Rises: Surnames and the History of Social Mobility, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ.

8.摘自蒂姆·哈福德 (Tim Harford) 2006 年著作《卧底经济学家》（牛津大学出版社，牛津，第 201-2 页）。

8. Quoted in Tim Harford, 2006, The Undercover Economist, Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp. 201–2.

9 . Masao Uchibayashi，2006，“本草品汇精药中发现的前哥伦布时代中国的玉米”，药学杂志：日本药学会杂志，126（1）：27-36。

9. Masao Uchibayashi, 2006, ‘Maize in pre-Columbian China found in Bencao Pinhui Jingyao’, Yakugaku Zasshi: Journal of the Pharmaceutical Society of Japan, 126(1): 27–36.

10.Baker，2022，第157页。

10. Baker, 2022, p. 157.

11. Sascha O. Becker 和 Ludger Woessmann，2009 年，《韦伯错了吗？新教经济史的人力资本理论》，《季刊经济学》 124(2)：531–96。

11. Sascha O. Becker and Ludger Woessmann, 2009, ‘Was Weber wrong? A human capital theory of Protestant economic history’, Quarterly Journal of Economics 124(2): 531–96.

12.Coggan，2020年，第57页。

12. Coggan, 2020, p. 57.

13. Gary Anderson，Robert B. Ekelund，Robert F. Hebert 和 Robert D. Tollison，1992，《中世纪十字军东征的经济解读》，《欧洲经济史杂志》 21(2): 339–63。

13. Gary Anderson, Robert B. Ekelund, Robert F. Hebert and Robert D. Tollison, 1992, ‘An economic interpretation of the medieval crusades’, Journal of European Economic History 21(2): 339–63.

14.Coggan，2020年，第7-8页。

14. Coggan, 2020, pp. 7–8.

15 . Şevket Pamuk，2007，《黑死病与1300-1600年欧洲“大分流”的起源》，《欧洲经济史评论》 11(3): 289–317。

15. Şevket Pamuk, 2007, ‘The Black Death and the origins of the “Great Divergence” across Europe, 1300–1600’, European Review of Economic History 11(3): 289–317.

3. 航海时代

3. THE AGE OF SAIL

1.跨大西洋奴隶贸易数据库，网址：slavevoyages.org。

1. Trans-Atlantic Slave Trade Database, at slavevoyages.org.

2.本段和下一段中的奴隶制统计数据来自 David Baker，2022 年，第 171-2 页。

2. The slavery statistics in this paragraph and the next are from David Baker, 2022, pp. 171–2.

3.《美国奴隶家庭分离现象普遍令人震惊》，《经济学人》，2022 年 6 月 18 日。

3. ‘Family separation among slaves in America was shockingly prevalent’, The Economist, 18 June 2022.

4. Stephan Heblich、Stephen Redding 和 Hans-Joachim Voth，2022 年，《奴隶制与英国工业革命》，NBER 工作论文 30451，NBER，马萨诸塞州剑桥。

4. Stephan Heblich, Stephen Redding and Hans-Joachim Voth, 2022, ‘Slavery and the British Industrial Revolution’, NBER Working Paper 30451, NBER, Cambridge, MA.

5。 Carlos J. Charotti、Nuno Palma 和 João Pereira dos Santos，2022 年，“美国的财富和西班牙的衰落”，经济学讨论论文系列 EDP-2201，曼彻斯特大学，曼彻斯特。

5. Carlos J. Charotti, Nuno Palma and João Pereira dos Santos, 2022, ‘American treasure and the decline of Spain’, Economics Discussion Paper Series EDP-2201, University of Manchester, Manchester.

6. Daron Acemoglu、Simon Johnson 和 James A. Robinson，2001 年，《比较发展的殖民起源：一项实证调查》，《美国经济评论》 91(5): 1369–1401。

6. Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson and James A. Robinson, 2001, ‘The colonial origins of comparative development: An empirical investigation’, American Economic Review 91(5): 1369–1401.

7.《东印度公司的军队》，国家陆军博物馆网站，www.nam.ac.uk/explore/armies-east-india-company（未注明日期）。

7. ‘Armies of the East India Company’, National Army Museum website, www.nam.ac.uk/explore/armies-east-india-company (undated).

8 . 约翰·布兰德趋势，1957 年，葡萄牙，普拉格，纽约，p。 103.

8. John Brande Trend, 1957, Portugal, Praeger, New York, p. 103.

9. Emily Oster，2004 年，《文艺复兴时期欧洲的巫术、气候和经济增长》，《经济展望杂志》 18(1)：215–28。

9. Emily Oster, 2004, ‘Witchcraft, weather and economic growth in Renaissance Europe’, Journal of Economic Perspectives 18(1): 215–28.

10. Peter Garber，1990，《著名的第一次泡沫》，《经济展望杂志》4(2): 35–54。

10. Peter Garber, 1990, ‘Famous first bubbles’, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 4(2): 35–54.

4.工业革命与国富论

4. THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION AND THE WEALTH OF NATIONS

1.这些数字以 2011 年美元计算，取自 Bolt 和 Luiten van Zanden，2020 年。

1. These figures are in 2011 US dollars and are drawn from Bolt and Luiten van Zanden, 2020.

2. Gregory Clark，2007，《告别施舍：世界经济简史》，普林斯顿大学出版社，新泽西州普林斯顿，第 38 页。

2. Gregory Clark, 2007, A Farewell to Alms: A Brief Economic History of the World, Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ, p.38.

3 . 博尔特和卢滕·范·赞登，2020； Max Roser、Cameron Appel 和 Hannah Ritchie，2013 年，“人类身高”，可访问 ourworldindata.org/ human-height。

3. Bolt and Luiten van Zanden, 2020; Max Roser, Cameron Appel and Hannah Ritchie, 2013, ‘Human height’, available at ourworldindata.org/human-height.

4. Robert Allen，2017，《工业革命：非常简短的介绍》，牛津大学出版社，牛津，第 4-7 页。

4. Robert Allen, 2017, The Industrial Revolution: A Very Short Introduction, Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp. 4–7.

5 . TS Ashton，1948 年，《工业革命 1760-1830》，牛津大学出版社，牛津，第 42 页。

5. T.S. Ashton, 1948, The Industrial Revolution 1760–1830, Oxford University Press, Oxford, p. 42.

6. RU Ayres，1989，《技术变革与长波》，国际应用系统分析研究所，奥地利拉曾堡，第 17 页。

6. R.U. Ayres, 1989, Technological Transformations and Long Waves, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Lazenburg, Austria, p. 17.

7. Nicholas Crafts，2004，“蒸汽作为通用技术：增长核算视角”，经济学期刊114(49): 338–51。

7. Nicholas Crafts, 2004, ‘Steam as a general purpose technology: A growth accounting perspective’, Economic Journal 114(49): 338–51.

8 . 科根，2020 年，第 100–1 页。

8. Coggan, 2020, pp. 100–1.

9.亚历山大·CR·哈蒙德，2019 年，《进步英雄，第 13 部分：詹姆斯·瓦特》，HumanProgress.org，3 月 7 日。

9. Alexander C.R. Hammond, 2019, ‘Heroes of progress, Pt. 13: James Watt’, HumanProgress.org, 7 March.

10.杰西·诺曼，2018年，《亚当·斯密：他的思想及其重要性》，企鹅出版社，伦敦。

10. Jesse Norman, 2018, Adam Smith: What He Thought, and Why It Matters, Penguin, London.

11. Todd Buchholz，1999，《已故经济学家的新思想：现代经济思想导论》，企鹅出版社，伦敦，第14页

11. Todd Buchholz, 1999, New Ideas from Dead Economists: An Introduction to Modern Economic Thought, Penguin Books, London, p.14

12。政体计划和经济学人智库等组织将完全民主定义为尊重公民自由、拥有民主政治文化并保障司法独立和新闻自由的国家。

12. Organisations such as the Polity Project and the Economist Intelligence Unit define full democracies as countries that respect civil liberties, have a democratic political culture and guarantee judicial independence and media freedom.

13. Ben Broadbent，2020 年，《政府债务和通货膨胀》，英格兰银行演讲，9 月 2 日。

13. Ben Broadbent, 2020, ‘Government debt and inflation’, Bank of England speech, 2 September.

14.尽管穆勒本人没有使用过“经济人”这一术语，但他的著作中却蕴含着“经济人”这一概念：参见约瑟夫·珀斯基，1995，《回顾：经济人的行为学》，《经济学展望杂志》 9(2)：221-231。

14. Mill’s writings underlay the concept of ‘Homo economicus’, although he did not use the term: see Joseph Persky, 1995, ‘Retrospectives: The ethology of homo economicus’, Journal of Economic Perspectives 9(2): 221–31.

15. Steven Johnson，2014年，《我们如何走到今天：成就现代世界的六项发明》，Riverhead Books，纽约，第32页。

15. Steven Johnson, 2014, How We Got to Now: Six Inventions That Made the Modern World, Riverhead Books, New York, p. 32.

16 . EP Thompson, 1967,《工作纪律与工业资本主义》, 《过去与现在》 38: 56–97。

16. E.P. Thompson, 1967, ‘Work–discipline, and industrial capitalism’, Past and Present 38: 56–97.

17. John Brown，1990，《英国的状况和生活水平：1806-1850 年西北部的棉纺织品》，《经济史杂志》 50(3)：591-614。

17. John Brown, 1990, ‘The condition of England and the standard of living: Cotton textiles in the northwest, 1806–1850’, Journal of Economic History 50(3): 591–614.

18. Joshua Gans 和 Andrew Leigh，2019 年，《创新 + 平等：如何创造一个更像星际迷航而非终结者的未来》，麻省理工学院出版社，马萨诸塞州剑桥，第 24 页。

18. Joshua Gans and Andrew Leigh, 2019, Innovation + Equality: How to Create a Future That Is More Star Trek Than Terminator, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, p. 24.

19 . JA Schumpeter，1954，《经济分析史》，牛津大学出版社，纽约，第500页。

19. J.A. Schumpeter, 1954, History of Economic Analysis, Oxford University Press, New York, p. 500.

20. Wolfgang Keller 和 Carol H. Shiue，2020 年，《1800-1950 年中国的对外贸易和投资》，NBER 工作论文 27558，NBER，马萨诸塞州剑桥。

20. Wolfgang Keller and Carol H. Shiue, 2020, ‘China’s foreign trade and investment, 1800–1950’, NBER Working Paper 27558, NBER, Cambridge, MA.

21. Allen，2017，第 97 页。

21. Allen, 2017, p. 97.

22 . Steven Pressman，1999，《五十位主要经济学家》，Routledge，伦敦，第 36 页。

22. Steven Pressman, 1999, Fifty Major Economists, Routledge, London, p. 36.

23.转引自 Kishtainy，2017 年，第 40 页。

23. Quoted in Kishtainy, 2017, p. 40.

5. 贸易、旅游和技术腾飞

5. TRADE, TRAVEL AND TECHNOLOGY TAKE OFF

1. Cobden 先生，1965 年，《沃尔特·白芝浩文集》，Norman St John-Stevas 编，第 3 卷，第 216 页。

1. Mr Cobden, 1965, The Collected Works of Walter Bagehot, Norman St John-Stevas (ed.), vol. 3, p. 216.

2. AC Howe，2008 年，《反谷物法联盟》，《牛津国家传记词典》 [在线资源]。

2. A.C. Howe, 2008, ‘Anti-Corn Law League’, Oxford Dictionary of National Biography [online resource].

3. Allen，2017，第 119 页。

3. Allen, 2017, p. 119.

4.联合国毒品和犯罪问题办公室，2008 年，《2008 年世界毒品报告》，联合国，纽约，第 175 页。

4. United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, 2008, World Drug Report 2008, United Nations, New York, p. 175.

5。关于日本经济发展的讨论借鉴了 Allen，2017 年，第 119-124 页的内容。

5. This discussion of Japan’s economic development draws on Allen, 2017, pp. 119–24.

6.Cameron，1989，第275-276页。

6. Cameron, 1989, pp. 275–6.

7.理查德·鲍德温，2006 年，《全球化：伟大的解绑》，芬兰总理办公室、经济委员会。

7. Richard Baldwin, 2006, ‘Globalisation: The great unbundling(s)’, Prime Minister’s Office, Economic Council of Finland.

8 . 博尔特和卢滕·范·赞登，2020。

8. Bolt and Luiten van Zanden, 2020.

9.Allen，2017，第76页。

9. Allen, 2017, p. 76.

10.摘自《我们的数据世界》，网址：ourworldindata.org/grapher/cross-country-literacy-rates。

10. From ‘Our World in Data’, at ourworldindata.org/grapher/cross-country-literacy-rates.

11. Matthew J. Gallman，1994 年，《北方打内战：本土战线》，Ivan R. Dee 出版社，芝加哥，第 95 页。

11. Matthew J. Gallman, 1994, The North Fights the Civil War: The Home Front, Ivan R. Dee, Chicago, p. 95.

12.David Galenson，2006，《老大师与年轻天才：艺术创造力的两个周期》，普林斯顿大学出版社，新泽西州普林斯顿。

12. David Galenson, 2006, Old Masters and Young Geniuses: The Two Cycles of Artistic Creativity, Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.

13. Sophia Twarog，1997，《1850-1939 年德国的身高和生活水平：以符腾堡为例》，载 Richard H. Steckel 和 Roderick Floud 编，《工业化时期的健康和福利》，芝加哥大学出版社，芝加哥，第 285-330 页。

13. Sophia Twarog, 1997, ‘Heights and living standards in Germany, 1850–1939: The case of Wurttemberg’ in Richard H. Steckel and Roderick Floud (eds), Health and Welfare During Industrialization, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, pp. 285–330.

14 . Peter Dunn，2002 年，《Stéphane Tarnier (1828–97)，法国围产医学的奠基人》，《儿童疾病档案：胎儿和新生儿版》 86(2): F137–9。

14. Peter Dunn, 2002, ‘Stéphane Tarnier (1828–97), the architect of perinatology in France’, Archives of Disease in Childhood: Fetal and Neonatal Edition 86(2): F137–9.

15. Geoff Boeing，2019，‘城市空间秩序：街道网络方向、配置和熵’，应用网络科学4(1): 1–19。

15. Geoff Boeing, 2019, ‘Urban spatial order: Street network orientation, configuration, and entropy’, Applied Network Science 4(1): 1–19.

6. 经济模型和现代工厂

6. ECONOMIC MODELS AND THE MODERN FACTORY

1. Thomas M. Humphrey，1992 年，《马歇尔交叉图及其在阿尔弗雷德·马歇尔之前的用途：供给与需求几何的起源》，《经济评论》，78：3-23。

1. Thomas M. Humphrey, 1992, ‘Marshallian cross diagrams and their uses before Alfred Marshall: The origins of supply and demand geometry’, Economic Review, 78: 3–23.

2. Henry Ford 和 Samuel Crowther，1922 年，《我的生活和工作》，花园城出版公司，花园城，纽约，第 72 页。

2. Henry Ford and Samuel Crowther, 1922, My Life and Work, Garden City Publishing Company, Garden City, New York, p. 72.

3.Coggan，2020年，第156页。

3. Coggan, 2020, p. 156.

4.例如，请参阅《说吸毒成瘾控制了整个国家》，《纽约时报》，1913 年 12 月 5 日，第 8 页。

4. See, for example, ‘Say drug habit grips the nation’, The New York Times, 5 December 1913, p. 8.

5.蒂姆·哈顿，个人通信。

5. Tim Hatton, personal communication.

6. Niall Ferguson，2008，《货币的崛起：世界金融史》，纽约企鹅出版社，第186页。

6. Niall Ferguson, 2008, The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World, Penguin, New York, p.186.

7。 Stephen Broadberry 和 Mark Harrison (eds)，2005 年，《第一次世界大战的经济学》，剑桥大学出版社，英国剑桥。计算基于 1914 年，因此同盟国包括俄罗斯（后来退出），但不包括后来加入的列强（如意大利和美国）。

7. Stephen Broadberry and Mark Harrison (eds), 2005, The Economics of World War I, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. The calculation is for 1914, so the Allied powers include Russia (which would later drop out) but exclude powers that joined later (such as Italy and the United States).

8. Andrei Markevich 和 Mark Harrison，2011 年，《第一次世界大战、内战和复苏：1913 年至 1928 年俄罗斯国民收入》，《经济史杂志》 71(3): 672–703。

8. Andrei Markevich and Mark Harrison, 2011, ‘Great War, Civil War, and recovery: Russia’s national income, 1913 to 1928’, Journal of Economic History 71(3): 672–703.

9. George Rose 和 Sherrylynn Rowe，2015 年，《北方鳕鱼的回归》，《加拿大渔业和水生科学杂志》 72，第 12 期：1789-98 年。

9. George Rose and Sherrylynn Rowe, 2015, ‘Northern cod comeback’, Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 72, no. 12: 1789–98.

7.第一次世界大战与大萧条

7. WORLD WAR I AND THE DEPRESSION

1. Broadberry 和 Harrison，2005 年，第 28 页。

1. Broadberry and Harrison, 2005, p.28.

2.约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯 (John Maynard Keynes) 预测的结果，1919 年，《和平的经济后果》，麦克米伦出版，伦敦。

2. An outcome predicted by John Maynard Keynes, 1919, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, Macmillan, London.

3.Coggan，2020年，第181页。

3. Coggan, 2020, p. 181.

4.保罗·克鲁格曼，1998年，《宿醉理论》，Slate杂志，12月4日。

4. Paul Krugman, 1998, ‘The hangover theory’, Slate, 4 December.

5.Bruce Caldwell 和 Hansjoerg Klausinger，2022 年，《哈耶克：1899-1950 年的一生》，芝加哥大学出版社，芝加哥。

5. Bruce Caldwell and Hansjoerg Klausinger, 2022, Hayek: A Life 1899–1950, University of Chicago Press, Chicago.

6 . 基什泰尼，2017，p。 104.

6. Kishtainy, 2017, p. 104.

7.理查德·达文波特-海因斯，2015年，《普遍的人：约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯的七次生命》，威廉柯林斯，伦敦，第214页。

7. Richard Davenport-Hines, 2015, Universal Man: The Seven Lives of John Maynard Keynes, William Collins, London, p. 214.

8. Lionel Robbins，1971年，《一个经济学家的自传》，伦敦帕尔格雷夫出版社，第 154 页。

8. Lionel Robbins, 1971, Autobiography of an Economist, Palgrave, London, p. 154.

9 . Walter Galenson 和 Arnold Zellner，1957 年，《失业率的国际比较》，《失业的测量与行为》，美国国家经济研究局，马萨诸塞州剑桥，第 439-584 页。一些近期研究略有不同，例如，澳大利亚的失业率超过 10%，而英国的失业率略低于 10%。1939 年，美国的失业率也超过了 10%：请参阅 fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M0892AUSM156SNBR。

9. Walter Galenson and Arnold Zellner, 1957, ‘International comparison of unemployment rates’ in The Measurement and Behavior of Unemployment, NBER, Cambridge, MA, pp. 439–584. Some recent studies differ slightly – for example putting Australia above 10 per cent and the UK just below 10 per cent. In 1939, US unemployment also exceeded 10 per cent: see fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M0892AUSM156SNBR.

10.关税损害国内生产的例子摘自艾伦·雷诺兹 1979 年的《我们对大崩溃了解多少？》国家评论，11 月 9 日。

10. The examples of how tariffs hurt domestic production are drawn from Alan Reynolds, 1979, ‘What do we know about the Great Crash?’ National Review, 9 November.

11.本段中报复性贸易措施的例子摘自 Kris James Mitchener、Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke 和 Kirsten Wandschneider，2022 年，《斯姆特霍利贸易战》，《经济学期刊》 132(647): 2500–33。

11. The examples of retaliatory trade measures in this paragraph are drawn from Kris James Mitchener, Kevin Hjortshøj O’Rourke and Kirsten Wandschneider, 2022, ‘The Smoot-Hawley trade war’, Economic Journal 132(647): 2500–33.

12.本段中移民限制的例子取自 Joseph Ferrie 和 Timothy Hatton，2015 年，《两个世纪国际移民经济学》，《国际移民经济学手册》，1：53-88。

12. The examples of immigration restrictions in this paragraph are drawn from Joseph Ferrie and Timothy Hatton, 2015, ‘Two centuries of international migration’, Handbook of the Economics of International Migration, 1: 53–88.

13.例如，请参阅 Nick Freeman，2002 年，《柬埔寨、老挝和越南的外国直接投资：区域概览》，为“外国直接投资：柬埔寨、老挝和越南的机遇和挑战”会议准备的论文，8 月 16-17 日，河内。

13. See, for example, Nick Freeman, 2002, ‘Foreign direct investment in Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam: A regional overview’, Paper prepared for the Conference on Foreign Direct Investment: Opportunities and Challenges for Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam, 16–17 August, Hanoi.

14. Sadie Alexander（Nina Banks 编辑），2021 年，《民主、种族和正义：Sadie TM Alexander 的演讲和著作》，耶鲁出版社，康涅狄格州纽黑文；《经济学家正在重新发现一位失落的女英雄》，《经济学人》，2020 年 12 月 19 日。

14. Sadie Alexander (ed. Nina Banks), 2021, Democracy, Race, and Justice: The Speeches and Writings of Sadie T. M. Alexander, Yale Press, New Haven, CT; ‘Economists are rediscovering a lost heroine’, The Economist, 19 December 2020.

15. Manuel Funke、Moritz Schularick 和 Christoph Trebesch，2016 年，《走向极端：1870-2014 年金融危机后的政治》，《欧洲经济评论》 88，227-260。

15. Manuel Funke, Moritz Schularick and Christoph Trebesch, 2016, ‘Going to extremes: Politics after financial crises, 1870–2014’, European Economic Review 88, 227–60.

8.第二次世界大战和布雷顿森林体系

8. WORLD WAR II AND BRETTON WOODS

1.更多详细信息，请参阅 Coggan，2020 年，第 198 页。

1. For more detail, see Coggan, 2020, p. 198.

2.第二次世界大战的经济比较取自马克·哈里森 1998 年出版的《第二次世界大战的经济学：六大国的国际比较》，剑桥大学出版社，英国剑桥。计算以 1938 年为准，因此包括了失败的同盟国（波兰、捷克斯洛伐克、法国及其帝国），但不包括后来加入同盟国的国家（苏联和美国）。

2. The economic comparisons of World War II are drawn from Mark Harrison, 1998, The Economics of World War II: Six Great Powers in International Comparison, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. The calculation is for 1938, so includes the Allied countries that would be lost (Poland, Czechoslovakia, France and its empire), while excluding nations that would later join the Allied side (the Soviet Union and the United States).

3. J. Bradford DeLong，2023 年，《走向乌托邦：20 世纪经济史》，阿歇特出版社，纽约，第 304 页。

3. J. Bradford DeLong, 2023, Slouching Towards Utopia: An Economic History of the Twentieth Century, Hachette, New York, p. 304.

4.菲利普斯·佩森·奥布莱恩，2015，《战争是怎样赢得的：第二次世界大战中的空海力量与盟军的胜利》，剑桥大学出版社，英国剑桥。

4. Phillips Payson O’Brien, 2015, How the War Was Won: Air-Sea Power and Allied Victory in World War II, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.

5.哈里森，1998 年。

5. Harrison, 1998.

6. J. Bradford DeLong 和 Barry Eichengreen，1993，《马歇尔计划：历史上最成功的结构调整计划》，载 Rudiger Dornbusch、Wilhelm Nolling 和 Richard Layard 编，《战后经济重建及对当今东方的启示》，麻省理工学院出版社，马萨诸塞州剑桥，第 189-230 页。

6. J. Bradford DeLong and Barry Eichengreen, 1993, ‘The Marshall Plan: History’s most successful structural adjustment program’ in Rudiger Dornbusch, Wilhelm Nolling and Richard Layard (eds), Postwar Economic Reconstruction and Lessons for the East Today, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, pp. 189–230.

7. Selwyn Cornish 和 Alex Millmow，2016 年，《AWH 菲利普斯和澳大利亚》，《经济学史评论》 63(1): 2-20。

7. Selwyn Cornish and Alex Millmow, 2016, ‘A.W.H. Phillips and Australia’, History of Economics Review 63(1): 2–20.

8. Vito Tanzi 和 Ludger Schuknecht，2000 年，《20 世纪的公共支出：全球视角》，剑桥大学出版社，英国剑桥，第 6 页。

8. Vito Tanzi and Ludger Schuknecht, 2000, Public Spending in the 20th century: A Global Perspective, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, p. 6.

9.光荣的三十年？

9. THE GLORIOUS THIRTY?

1. Branko Milanović，2008 年，《你在世界的哪个角落？评估在不同国家平均收入水平和（几乎）没有移民的世界中环境和努力的重要性》，政策研究工作报告 4493，世界银行，华盛顿特区。

1. Branko Milanović, 2008, ‘Where in the world are you? Assessing the importance of circumstance and effort in a world of different mean country incomes and (almost) no migration’, Policy Research Working Paper 4493, World Bank, Washington, DC.

2. OECD，2019 年，《通过谈判向上发展：不断变化的工作世界中的集体谈判》，OECD，巴黎。

2. OECD, 2019, Negotiating Our Way Up: Collective Bargaining in a Changing World of Work, OECD, Paris.

3. Jan Tinbergen，1974 年，《其他劳动力取代毕业生》，Kyklos 27(2): 217–26；Claudia Goldin 和 Lawrence Katz，2008 年，《教育与科技之间的竞赛》，哈佛大学出版社，马萨诸塞州剑桥。

3. Jan Tinbergen, 1974, ‘Substitution of graduate by other labour’, Kyklos 27(2): 217–26; Claudia Goldin and Lawrence Katz, 2008, The Race Between Education and Technology, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA.

4. Andrew Stanley，2022 年，《全球不平等》，国际货币基金组织，华盛顿特区。

4. Andrew Stanley, 2022, Global Inequalities, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC.

5. Andrew Leigh，2009年，《世界经济会影响国家选举吗？》，《牛津经济与统计公报》 71(2): 163–81。

5. Andrew Leigh, 2009, ‘Does the world economy swing national elections?’, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 71(2): 163–81.

6. Alan Holmans，2005，《英国住房历史统计数据》，剑桥大学住房与规划研究中心，英国剑桥，第 130、143 页。

6. Alan Holmans, 2005, Historical Statistics of Housing in Britain, Cambridge Centre for Housing & Planning Research, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK, pp. 130, 143.

7. Steven Johnson，2010，《好主意从何而来：创新的自然史》，纽约企鹅出版社，第 214-15 页。

7. Steven Johnson, 2010, Where Good Ideas Come From: The Natural History of Innovation, Penguin, New York, pp. 214–15.

8 . 基什泰尼，2017，p。 134.

8. Kishtainy, 2017, p. 134.

9. Gary Becker，1968年，《犯罪与惩罚：一种经济学方法》，《政治经济学杂志》，76(2): 169–217。

9. Gary Becker, 1968, ‘Crime and punishment: An economic approach’, Journal of Political Economy, 76(2): 169–217.

10. Gary Becker，1957，《歧视的经济学》，芝加哥大学出版社，芝加哥。

10. Gary Becker, 1957, The Economics of Discrimination, University of Chicago Press, Chicago.

11.这些数字是英国脱欧后的数据。

11. These figures are post-Brexit.

12.美国航空运输协会，1970 年，《1970 年航空运输事实和数据》，ATAA，华盛顿特区。

12. Air Transport Association of America, 1970, 1970 Air Transport Facts and Figures, ATAA, Washington, DC.

13. “信用卡债务统计”，网址为balancedeverything.com/credit-card-debt-statistics/，更新于 2023 年 1 月 6 日。

13. ‘Credit card debt statistics’, available at balancingeverything.com/credit-card-debt-statistics/, updated 6 January 2023.

14. Anja Achtziger，2022 年，《过度支出、债务和贫困》，《当前心理学观点》：101342。

14. Anja Achtziger, 2022, ‘Overspending, debt, and poverty’, Current Opinion in Psychology: 101342.

15 . George Akerlof，1970 年，《柠檬市场：质量不确定性和市场机制》，《季刊经济学》 84(3)：488–500 页。

15. George Akerlof, 1970, ‘The market for lemons: Quality uncertainty and the market mechanism’, Quarterly Journal of Economics 84(3): 488–500.

16. David Card 和 Stefano DellaVigna，2013 年，《关于经济学顶级期刊的九个事实》，《经济文献杂志》 51(1): 144–61。

16. David Card and Stefano DellaVigna, 2013, ‘Nine facts about top journals in economics’, Journal of Economic Literature 51(1): 144–61.

17 .科根，2020 年，第 234–5 页。

17. Coggan, 2020, pp. 234–5.

18。作者的计算基于 Bolt 和 Luiten van Zanden，2020 年。

18. Author’s calculations, based on Bolt and Luiten van Zanden, 2020.

19. Helen Yaffe，2009，《切·格瓦拉：革命的经济学》，Palgrave Macmillan，伦敦，第 21 页。

19. Helen Yaffe, 2009, Che Guevara: The Economics of Revolution, Palgrave Macmillan, London, p. 21.

20. Gordon Corera，《印度：经济》，BBC，1998 年 12 月 3 日。

20. Gordon Corera, ‘India: The economy’, BBC, 3 December 1998.

21. Marco Colagrossi、Domenico Rossignoli 和 Mario A. Maggioni。2020 年，“民主会促进增长吗？一项荟萃分析（2000 年回归分析）”，《欧洲政治经济学杂志》 61：101824。

21. Marco Colagrossi, Domenico Rossignoli and Mario A. Maggioni. 2020, ‘Does democracy cause growth? A meta-analysis (of 2000 regressions)’, European Journal of Political Economy 61: 101824.

22. MV Lee Badgett、Sheila Nezhad、Kees Waaldijk 和 Yana van der Meulen Rodgers，2014 年，《LGBT 包容与经济发展之间的关系：对新兴经济体的分析》，威廉姆斯研究所和美国国际开发署，华盛顿特区。

22. MV Lee Badgett, Sheila Nezhad, Kees Waaldijk and Yana van der Meulen Rodgers, 2014, ‘The relationship between LGBT inclusion and economic development: An analysis of emerging economies’, Williams Institute and US AID, Washington, DC.

23. Aniruddha Mitra、James T. Bang 和 Arnab Biswas，2015 年，《性别平等与经济增长：是机会平等还是结果平等？》，《女性主义经济学》 21(1)：110–35。

23. Aniruddha Mitra, James T. Bang and Arnab Biswas, 2015, ‘Gender equality and economic growth: Is it equality of opportunity or equality of outcomes?’, Feminist Economics 21(1): 110–35.

24 . Angus Maddison，2006，《世界经济》。OECD，巴黎，第 178 页。

24. Angus Maddison, 2006, The World Economy. OECD, Paris, p. 178.

25 .作者的计算基于 Bolt 和 Luiten van Zanden，2020 年。

25. Author’s calculations, based on Bolt and Luiten van Zanden, 2020.

26 . Cormac Ó Gráda，2007，《让饥荒成为历史》，《经济文献杂志》，45(1): 5–38。

26. Cormac Ó Gráda, 2007, ‘Making famine history’, Journal of Economic Literature, 45(1): 5–38.

10. 市场无处不在

10. MARKETS, MARKETS EVERYWHERE

1.王科，2008，《农村改革发源地小岗村继续前行》，中国网，12 月 15 日。

1. Ke Wang, 2008, ‘Xiaogang Village, birthplace of rural reform, moves on’, China.org.cn, 15 December.

2.本记述主要取自 David Kestenbaum 和 Jacob Goldstein 于 2012 年出版的《改变中国的秘密文件》，Planet Money，1 月 20 日。

2. This account is largely drawn from David Kestenbaum and Jacob Goldstein, 2012, ‘The secret document that transformed China’, Planet Money, 20 January.

3. Nicholas Lardy，2016 年，《中国私营部门角色的变化》，载于 Iris Day 和 John Simon 编，《中国的结构变化：对澳大利亚和世界的影响》，澳大利亚储备银行，悉尼，第 37-50 页。

3. Nicholas Lardy, 2016, ‘The changing role of the private sector in China’ in Iris Day and John Simon (eds), Structural Change in China: Implications for Australia and the World, Reserve Bank of Australia, Sydney, pp. 37–50.

4姚树洁，2000，“改革开放20年来中国经济发展与减贫”，经济发展与文化变迁48(3): 447-74。

4. Shujie Yao, 2000, ‘Economic development and poverty reduction in China over 20 years of reforms’, Economic Development and Cultural Change 48(3): 447–74.

5. Julia Simon 和 Kenny Malone，2021 年，《回顾里根总统解雇空中交通管制员的情形》，NPR 晨间版，8 月 5 日。

5. Julia Simon and Kenny Malone, 2021, ‘Looking back on when President Reagan fired the air traffic controllers’, NPR Morning Edition, 5 August.

6.William A. Niskanen，1988，《里根经济学：政策与人民内部人士的叙述》，牛津大学出版社，牛津。

6. William A. Niskanen, 1988, Reaganomics: An Insider’s Account of the Policies and the People, Oxford University Press, Oxford.

7. Mark Carney，2021 年，《价值观：为所有人建设更美好的世界》，威廉柯林斯，伦敦，第 173 页。

7. Mark Carney, 2021, Value(s): Building a Better World for All, William Collins, London, p. 173.

8。 William L. Megginson 和 Jeffry M. Netter，2001 年，《从国家到市场：私有化实证研究调查》，《经济文献杂志》 39(2)：321-389。

8. William L. Megginson and Jeffry M. Netter, 2001, ‘From state to market: A survey of empirical studies on privatization’, Journal of Economic Literature 39(2): 321-389.

9.迈克尔·波特，1979年，《竞争力量如何塑造战略》，《哈佛商业评论》 57：137-145。

9. Michael Porter, 1979, ‘How competitive forces shape strategy’, Harvard Business Review 57: 137-145.

10.丹尼尔·哈默梅什，2011年，《美丽带来回报：为何有魅力的人更成功》，普林斯顿大学出版社，新泽西州普林斯顿。

10. Daniel Hamermesh, 2011, Beauty Pays: Why Attractive People Are More Successful, Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.

11. 通胀目标与不平等

11. INFLATION TARGETING AND INEQUALITY

1.Coggan，2020 年，第 224 页。

1. Coggan, 2020, p. 224.

2. “1000 亿美元买三颗鸡蛋”，《先驱太阳报》，2008 年 7 月 25 日。

2. ‘$100 billion for three eggs’, Herald Sun, 25 July 2008.

3.Coggan，2020年，第258页。

3. Coggan, 2020, p. 258.

4.加拿大银行行长杰拉德·布伊 (Gerald Bouey) 于 1982 年发表讲话。

4. Gerald Bouey, governor of the Bank of Canada, speaking in 1982.

5. Kenneth Rogoff，2022 年，《通货膨胀时代》，《外交事务》，11/12 月。

5. Kenneth Rogoff, 2022, ‘The age of inflation’, Foreign Affairs, Nov/Dec.

6.威廉·麦克切斯尼·马丁二世，1955 年，《在美国投资银行家协会纽约分会前的演讲》，10 月 19 日。>

6. William McChesney Martin Jr, 1955, ‘Address before the New York Group of Investment Bankers Association of America’, 19 October.>

7. “再加把劲”，《经济学人》，2011 年 7 月 21 日。

7. ‘One more push’, The Economist, 21 July 2011.

8. Facundo Alvaredo、Lucas Chancel、Thomas Piketty、Emmanuel Saez 和 Gabriel Zucman，2017 年，《2018 年世界不平等报告》，巴黎经济学院，巴黎，第 123-130 页。

8. Facundo Alvaredo, Lucas Chancel, Thomas Piketty, Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman, 2017, World Inequality Report 2018, Paris School of Economics, Paris, pp. 123–30.

9.世界银行，营商环境项目，网址：www.worldbank.org/en/programs/business-enabling-environment/doing-business-legacy（该项目于 2021 年停止）。

9. World Bank, Doing Business project, available at www.worldbank.org/en/programs/business-enabling-environment/doing-business-legacy (the project was discontinued in 2021).

10. Douglas Irwin，2022 年，《1985−1995 年的贸易改革浪潮》，AEA 论文和会议纪要，112：244–51。

10. Douglas Irwin, 2022, ‘The trade reform wave of 1985−1995’, AEA Papers and Proceedings, 112: 244–51.

11. Chad Bown 和 Douglas Irwin，2015 年，《关贸总协定的起点：1947 年左右的关税水平》，NBER 工作报告 21782；世界银行，《所有产品适用加权平均关税税率（%）》，可访问 data.worldbank.org/indicator/TM.TAX.MRCH.WM.AR.ZS。

11. Chad Bown and Douglas Irwin, 2015, ‘The GATT’s starting point: Tariff levels circa 1947’, NBER Working Paper 21782; World Bank, ‘Tariff rate, applied, weighted mean, all products (%)’, available at data.worldbank.org/indicator/TM.TAX.MRCH.WM.AR.ZS.

12 .博尔特和卢滕·范·赞登，2020。

12. Bolt and Luiten van Zanden, 2020.

13.例如，请参阅林毅夫，2019，《新结构经济学：第三代发展经济学》，GEGI 工作论文 27，波士顿大学全球发展政策中心，波士顿。

13. See, for example, Justin Yifu Lin, 2019, ‘New structural economics: The third generation of development economics’, GEGI Working Paper 27, Global Development Policy Center, Boston University, Boston.

14. Mariana Mazzucato，2013年，《创业型国家：揭穿风险与创新中公共与私人神话》，Anthem Press，伦敦。

14. Mariana Mazzucato, 2013. The Entrepreneurial State: Debunking Public vs. Private Myths in Risk and Innovation, Anthem Press, London.

15.《印度人口将比预期更快减少》，《经济学人》2021 年 12 月 2 日。

15. ‘India’s population will start to shrink sooner than expected’, The Economist, 2 December 2021.

16.联合国经济和社会事务部，人口司，2022 年。《2022 年世界人口展望》，联合国，纽约。

16. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, 2022. World Population Prospects 2022, United Nations, New York.

17. Steven Ritter，2008年，《哈伯-博世反应：早期化学对可持续性的影响》，《化学与工程新闻》 86(33)。

17. Steven Ritter, 2008, ‘The Haber–Bosch reaction: An early chemical impact on sustainability’, Chemical and Engineering News 86(33).

18 . Stuart Smyth，2020年，“转基因作物给人类健康带来的好处”，植物生物技术杂志18(4): 887–8。

18. Stuart Smyth, 2020, ‘The human health benefits from GM crops’, Plant Biotechnology Journal 18(4): 887–8.

19.阿卜杜勒·拉蒂夫·贾米尔贫困行动实验室 (J-PAL)，2018 年，“免费蚊帐抗击疟疾”，J-PAL 证据政策案例研究。

19. Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab (J-PAL), 2018, ‘Free bednets to fight malaria’, J-PAL Evidence to Policy Case Study.

20. Facundo Alvaredo、Lucas Chancel、Thomas Piketty、Emmanuel Saez 和 Gabriel Zucman，2017 年，《2018 年世界不平等报告》，巴黎经济学院，巴黎，第 113–22 页。

20. Facundo Alvaredo, Lucas Chancel, Thomas Piketty, Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman, 2017, World Inequality Report 2018, Paris School of Economics, Paris, pp. 113–22.

21.有关这一点的更详细讨论，请参阅 Gans 和 Leigh，2019 年。

21. For a longer discussion of this point, see Gans and Leigh, 2019.

22. William Kissick，1994 年，《医学的困境：无限需求与有限资源》，耶鲁大学出版社，康涅狄格州纽黑文。

22. William Kissick, 1994, Medicine’s Dilemmas: Infinite Needs Versus Finite Resources, Yale University Press, New Haven, CT.

23.这些例子摘自 David Cutler 和 Mark McClellan，2001 年的《医学技术变革值得吗？》，《健康事务》 20(5): 11-29。

23. These examples are drawn from David Cutler and Mark McClellan, 2001, ‘Is technological change in medicine worth it?’, Health Affairs 20(5): 11–29.

24.约翰·肯尼斯·加尔布雷斯，1958 年，《富裕社会》，霍顿·米夫林公司，波士顿。

24. John Kenneth Galbraith, 1958, The Affluent Society, Houghton Mifflin Company, Boston.

25.商业研究公司，2023 年，《2023 年全球体育市场报告》，商业研究公司，伦敦。

25. The Business Research Company, 2023, Sports Global Market Report 2023, The Business Research Company, London.

26. Joseph Price 和 Justin Wolfers，2010 年，《NBA 裁判中的种族歧视》，《季刊经济学》，125(4): 1859–87。

26. Joseph Price and Justin Wolfers, 2010, ‘Racial discrimination among NBA referees’, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 125(4): 1859–87.

27 . Kai Fischer、J. James Reade 和 W. Benedikt Schmal，2022 年，《无法治愈的必须忍受：COVID-19 感染对工作场所生产力的长期影响》，《劳动经济学》 79，102281。

27. Kai Fischer, J. James Reade and W. Benedikt Schmal, 2022, ‘What cannot be cured must be endured: The long-lasting effect of a COVID-19 infection on workplace productivity’, Labour Economics 79, 102281.

28. Graham Kendall 和 Liam Lenten，2017 年，《当体育规则出现问题时》，《欧洲运筹学杂志》 257(2): 377–94。

28. Graham Kendall and Liam Lenten, 2017, ‘When sports rules go awry’, European Journal of Operational Research 257(2): 377–94.

12. 市场火爆，地球气温升高

12. HOT MARKETS AND A HOTTER PLANET

1.请参阅www.internetworldstats.com/emarketing.htm。

1. See www.internetworldstats.com/emarketing.htm.

2.近年来，疟疾死亡人数平均约为 600,000 人（世界卫生组织世界疟疾报告），而鲨鱼死亡人数平均约为 70 人（佛罗里达自然历史博物馆的国际鲨鱼袭击档案）。机动车死亡人数平均为约有 130 万人（世界卫生组织），而航空事故死亡人数平均约为 300 人（航空安全网络）。

2. In recent years, malaria deaths have averaged around 600,000 (World Health Organization World Malaria Report), while shark deaths have averaged around seventy (Florida Museum of Natural History’s International Shark Attack File). Motor vehicle fatalities have averaged around 1.3 million (World Health Organization), while aviation fatalities have averaged around 300 (Aviation Safety Network).

3.丹尼尔·卡尼曼，2011年，《思考，快与慢》，法勒，斯特劳斯和吉鲁出版社，纽约。

3. Daniel Kahneman, 2011, Thinking, Fast and Slow, Farrar, Straus and Giroux, New York.

4. OECD，2022 年，《HM 1.2 房价》，OECD 经济适用房数据库，OECD，巴黎。

4. OECD, 2022, ‘HM 1.2 House Prices’, OECD Affordable Housing Database, OECD, Paris.

5.席勒 2007 年的过山车模拟可以在 www.youtube.com/watch?v=kUldGc06S3U 上观看。

5. Shiller’s 2007 rollercoaster simulation can be viewed at www.youtube.com/watch?v=kUldGc06S3U.

6.迈克尔·刘易斯，2010年，《大空头：末日机器内幕》，WW诺顿出版社，纽约。

6. Michael Lewis, 2010, The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine, WW Norton, New York.

7.国际劳工组织，2018 年，《2018/19 年全球工资报告：性别工资差距背后的原因》，国际劳工组织，日内瓦。

7. International Labour Organization, 2018, Global Wage Report 2018/19: What Lies Behind Gender Pay Gaps, ILO, Geneva.

8. Doris Weichselbaumer 和 Rudof Winter-Ebmer，2005 年，《国际性别工资差距的元分析》，《经济调查杂志》 19（3）：479-511。

8. Doris Weichselbaumer and Rudof Winter-Ebmer, 2005, ‘A meta-analysis on the international gender wage gap’, Journal of Economic Surveys 19 (3): 479–511.

9 . Alexandra de Pleijt 和 Jan Luiten van Zanden，2021 年，“女性劳动力的两个世界：西欧的性别工资不平等，1300-1800 年”，经济史评论74 (3)：611-38。

9. Alexandra de Pleijt and Jan Luiten van Zanden, 2021, ‘Two worlds of female labour: gender wage inequality in western Europe, 1300–1800’, Economic History Review 74 (3): 611–38.

10. Kristen Schilt 和 Matthew Wiswall，2008 年，《前后：性别转变、人力资本和职场体验》，《经济分析与政策杂志》 8(1)。

10. Kristen Schilt and Matthew Wiswall, 2008, ‘Before and after: Gender transitions, human capital, and workplace experiences’, BE Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy 8(1).

11.克劳迪娅·戈尔丁，2021 年，《事业与家庭：女性百年平等之旅》，普林斯顿大学出版社，新泽西州普林斯顿。

11. Claudia Goldin, 2021, Career and Family: Women’s Century-Long Journey Toward Equity, Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.

12. Rick Glaubitz、Astrid Harnack-Eber 和 Miriam Wetter，2022 年，《终生收入中的性别差距：父母角色》，DIW 柏林讨论文件 2001，DIW，柏林；Fatih Guvenen、Greg Kaplan、Jae Song 和 Justin Weidner，2022 年，《六十年来美国终生收入》，美国经济学杂志：应用经济学14(4)：446–79。

12. Rick Glaubitz, Astrid Harnack-Eber and Miriam Wetter, 2022, ‘The gender gap in lifetime earnings: The role of parenthood’, DIW Berlin Discussion Paper 2001, DIW, Berlin; Fatih Guvenen, Greg Kaplan, Jae Song and Justin Weidner, 2022, ‘Lifetime earnings in the United States over six decades’, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 14(4): 446–79.

13. Jhacova Williams，“解雇更多，雇用更少：新冠疫情经济衰退中的黑人工人”，兰德博客，2020 年 9 月 29 日。

13. Jhacova Williams, ‘Laid off more, hired less: Black workers in the COVID-19 recession’, RAND blog, 29 September 2020.

14 . Robert Klitgaard，1988 年，《控制腐败》，加州大学出版社，奥克兰，加利福尼亚州。

14. Robert Klitgaard, 1988, Controlling Corruption, University of California Press, Oakland, CA.

15. Annette Alstadsæter、Niels Johannesen 和 Gabriel Zucman，2018 年，“谁拥有避税天堂的财富？宏观证据及其对全球不平等的影响”，《公共经济学杂志》 162：89–100。

15. Annette Alstadsæter, Niels Johannesen and Gabriel Zucman, 2018, ‘Who owns the wealth in tax havens? Macro evidence and implications for global inequality’, Journal of Public Economics 162: 89–100.

16. Seema Jayachandran 和 Michael Kremer，2006，《可恶的债务》，《美国经济评论》 96(1): 82–92。

16. Seema Jayachandran and Michael Kremer, 2006, ‘Odious debt’, American Economic Review 96(1): 82–92.

17。蒂姆·哈福德 (Tim Harford)，2020 年，《如何让世界变得丰富：以不同方式思考数字的十条规则》，伦敦小布朗图书集团。

17. Tim Harford, 2020, How to Make the World Add Up: Ten Rules for Thinking Differently About Numbers, Little, Brown Book Group, London.

18.请参阅www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/most-successful-chimpanzee-on-wall-street。

18. See www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/most-successful-chimpanzee-on-wall-street.

19 . Tim Edwards、Anu R. Ganti、Craig Lazzara、Joseph Nelesen 和 Davide Di Gioia，2022 年，“SPIVA US 年中 2022 年”，标准普尔道琼斯指数，纽约，第 14 页7.

19. Tim Edwards, Anu R. Ganti, Craig Lazzara, Joseph Nelesen and Davide Di Gioia, 2022, ‘SPIVA U.S. Mid-Year 2022’, S&P Dow Jones Indices, New York, p. 7.

20. Alexander Chinco 和 Marco Sammon，2022 年，《被动所有权份额是你想象的两倍》，网址：ssrn.com/abstract=4188052。

20. Alexander Chinco and Marco Sammon, 2022, ‘The passive-ownership share is double what you think it is’, available at ssrn.com/abstract=4188052.

21. Annie Lowrey，2021 年，《指数基金会比马克思主义更糟糕吗？》，《大西洋月刊》，4 月 5 日。

21. Annie Lowrey, 2021, ‘Could index funds be “worse than Marxism”?’, The Atlantic, 5 April.

22. IGM 经济专家小组，2019 年，《多元化投资》，全球市场计划，芝加哥布斯商学院，芝加哥，1 月 28 日。

22. IGM Economic Experts Panel, 2019, ‘Diversified investing’, Initiative on Global Markets, Chicago Booth, Chicago, 28 January.

23.泰勒·科文，2011年，《大停滞：美国如何尝到了现代史上所有唾手可得的果实，然后病倒了，并（最终）感觉好起来》，达顿，纽约。

23. Tyler Cowen, 2011, The Great Stagnation: How America Ate All the Low-Hanging Fruit of Modern History, Got Sick, and Will (Eventually) Feel Better, Dutton, New York.

24.安德鲁·G·霍尔丹，2015 年，《陷入困境》，6 月 30 日在米尔顿凯恩斯开放大学的演讲。

24. Andrew G Haldane, 2015, ‘Stuck’, Speech given at the Open University, Milton Keynes, 30 June.

25.请参阅大西洋理事会的《全球量化宽松追踪》，网址为 www.atlanticcouncil.org/global-qe-tracker/。

25. See the Atlantic Council’s ‘Global QE Tracker’, available at www.atlanticcouncil.org/global-qe-tracker/.

26. Steve Liesman，2019 年，《特朗普的关税相当于几十年来最大的增税之一》，CNBC，5 月 16 日。

26. Steve Liesman, 2019, ‘Trump’s tariffs are equivalent to one of the largest tax increases in decades’, CNBC, 16 May.

27. Joseph Francois、Laura Baughman 和 Daniel Anthony，2018 年，《第三轮：“贸易谈判”还是“贸易战”？关税对钢铁和铝的影响预估》，《贸易伙伴关系》，华盛顿特区，6 月 5 日。

27. Joseph Francois, Laura Baughman and Daniel Anthony, 2018, ‘Round 3: “Trade discussion” or “trade war”? The estimated impacts of tariffs on steel and aluminum’, Trade Partnership, Washington, DC, 5 June.

28. Pablo Fajgelbaum、Pinelopi Goldberg、Patrick Kennedy 和 Amit Khandelwal，2020 年，《保护主义的回归》，《季刊经济学》 135(1): 1–55。

28. Pablo Fajgelbaum, Pinelopi Goldberg, Patrick Kennedy and Amit Khandelwal, 2020, ‘The return to protectionism’, Quarterly Journal of Economics 135(1): 1–55.

29.《英国脱欧对经济的影响‘比新冠疫情更严重’》，BBC 新闻，2021 年 10 月 27 日。

29. ‘Impact of Brexit on economy “worse than Covid”’, BBC News, 27 October 2021.

13. 疫情及其后续影响

13. THE PANDEMIC AND BEYOND

1. Rakesh Padhan 和 KP Prabheesh，2021 年，《COVID-19 大流行的经济学：一项调查》，《经济分析与政策》 70：220–37。

1. Rakesh Padhan and K.P. Prabheesh, 2021, ‘The economics of COVID-19 pandemic: A survey’, Economic Analysis and Policy 70: 220–37.

2 . 帕丹和普拉布希什，2021 年。

2. Padhan and Prabheesh, 2021.

3.国际货币基金组织，2022 年，《2022 年全球债务监测》，国际货币基金组织，华盛顿特区，第 7 页。

3. International Monetary Fund, 2022, 2022 Global Debt Monitor, IMF, Washington, DC, p. 7.

4 . 例如，请参阅美国疾病控制与预防中心，2021 年，《发病率和死亡率周报》，70(37)，9 月 17 日。

4. See, for example, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2021, ‘Morbidity and mortality weekly report’ 70(37), 17 September.

5. Evan P. Starr、James J. Prescott 和 Norman D. Bishara，2021 年，《美国劳动力中的竞业禁止协议》，《法律与经济学杂志》 64(1): 53–84。

5. Evan P. Starr, James J. Prescott and Norman D. Bishara, 2021, ‘Noncompete agreements in the US labor force’, Journal of Law and Economics 64(1): 53–84.

6.艾米·韦伯，2019 年，《九大科技巨头：科技巨头及其思维机器如何扭曲人类》，公共事务部，纽约。

6. Amy Webb, 2019, The Big Nine: How the Tech Titans and Their Thinking Machines Could Warp Humanity, Public Affairs, New York.

7.汉娜·弗莱，2018 年，《你好，世界：算法时代的人类》，WW Norton，伦敦。

7. Hannah Fry, 2018, Hello World: Being Human in the Age of Algorithms, WW Norton, London.

8.Cathy O’Neil，2016年，《数学毁灭武器》，Crown，纽约。

8. Cathy O’Neil, 2016, Weapons of Math Destruction, Crown, New York.

9.Shoshana Zuboff，2019年，《监控资本主义时代：在权力新前沿为人类未来而战》，Profile Books，纽约。

9. Shoshana Zuboff, 2019, The Age of Surveillance Capitalism: The Fight for a Human Future at the New Frontier of Power, Profile Books, New York.

10. Raj Chetty、David Grusky、Maximilian Hell、Nathaniel Hendren、Robert Manduca 和 Jimmy Narang，2017，《渐渐消逝的美国梦：1940 年以来绝对收入流动性的趋势》，《科学》 356(6336)：398–406；Raj Chetty 和 Nathaniel Hendren，2018，《社区对代际流动性的影响 I：童年接触的影响》，《经济学季刊》 133(3)：1107–62；Raj Chetty 和 Nathaniel Hendren，2018，《社区对代际流动性的影响 II：县级估计》，《经济学季刊》 133(3)：1163–1228。

10. Raj Chetty, David Grusky, Maximilian Hell, Nathaniel Hendren, Robert Manduca and Jimmy Narang, 2017, ‘The fading American dream: Trends in absolute income mobility since 1940’, Science 356(6336): 398–406; Raj Chetty and Nathaniel Hendren, 2018, ‘The effects of neighborhoods on intergenerational mobility I: Childhood exposure effects’, Quarterly Journal of Economics 133(3): 1107–62; Raj Chetty and Nathaniel Hendren, 2018, ‘The effects of neighborhoods on intergenerational mobility II: County level estimates’, Quarterly Journal of Economics 133(3): 1163–1228.

11. Raj Chetty、Matthew O. Jackson、Theresa Kuchler、Johannes Stroebel 等人，2022 年，《社会资本 I：经济流动性的测量及其关联》，《自然》 608(7921)：108–21；Raj Chetty、Matthew O. Jackson、Theresa Kuchler、Johannes Stroebel 等人，2022 年，《社会资本 II：经济联系的决定因素》，《自然》 608(7921)：122–34。

11. Raj Chetty, Matthew O. Jackson, Theresa Kuchler, Johannes Stroebel et al., 2022, ‘Social Capital I: Measurement and Associations with Economic Mobility’, Nature 608(7921): 108–21; Raj Chetty, Matthew O. Jackson, Theresa Kuchler, Johannes Stroebel et al., 2022, ‘Social Capital II: Determinants of Economic Connectedness’, Nature 608(7921): 122–34.

12.所有法医经济学示例均来自 Eric Zitzewitz，2012 年，《法医经济学》，《经济文献杂志》，50(3): 731–69。

12. All forensic economics examples are from Eric Zitzewitz, 2012, ‘Forensic economics’, Journal of Economic Literature, 50(3): 731–69.

13.该研究最终发表为 Andrew Leigh，2010，《谁从劳动所得税抵免中受益？受助人、同事和公司之间的关联性》，BE Journal of Economic Analysis and Policy 10(1)。

13. The research was ultimately published as Andrew Leigh, 2010, ‘Who benefits from the earned income tax credit? Incidence among recipients, coworkers and firms’, BE Journal of Economic Analysis and Policy 10(1).

14.塞思·史蒂芬斯-大卫多维茨，2017年，《人人都撒谎：互联网能告诉我们我们到底是谁》，布鲁姆斯伯里，伦敦。

14. Seth Stephens-Davidowitz, 2017, Everybody Lies: What the Internet Can Tell Us About Who We Really Are, Bloomsbury, London.

15. Hoyt Bleakley 和 Jeffrey Lin，2012，《Portage 与路径依赖》，《季刊经济学》 127(2): 587–644。

15. Hoyt Bleakley and Jeffrey Lin, 2012, ‘Portage and path dependence’, Quarterly Journal of Economics 127(2): 587–644.

16. Luis Martinez，2022 年，“我们应该在多大程度上相信独裁者的 GDP 增长估计？” 《政治经济学杂志》 130(10)：2731–69。

16. Luis Martinez, 2022, ‘How much should we trust the dictator’s GDP growth estimates?’ Journal of Political Economy 130(10): 2731–69.

17。这些例子以及其他许多例子都总结在 Dave Donaldson 和 Adam Storeygard 在 2016 年所著的《从上方看：卫星数据在经济学中的应用》中，《经济展望杂志》 30(4): 171–98。

17. These examples and many more are summarised in Dave Donaldson and Adam Storeygard, 2016, ‘The view from above: Applications of satellite data in economics’, Journal of Economic Perspectives 30(4): 171–98.

18. Erik Brynjolfsson、Avinash Collis 和 Felix Eggers，2019 年，《使用大规模在线选择实验来衡量幸福感的变化》，《美国国家科学院院刊》 116(15): 7250–5。

18. Erik Brynjolfsson, Avinash Collis and Felix Eggers, 2019, ‘Using massive online choice experiments to measure changes in well-being’, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 116(15): 7250–5.

19 .基什泰尼，2017 年，第 208-9 页。

19. Kishtainy, 2017, pp. 208–9.

20 . Marilyn Waring，1988，《如果女性重要：一种新的女性主义经济学》。Harper and Row，旧金山。

20. Marilyn Waring, 1988, If Women Counted: A New Feminist Economics. Harper and Row, San Francisco.

14. 经济学：过去、现在和未来

14. ECONOMICS: PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE

1. Max Roser，2016 年，《别再说 2016 年是‘最糟糕的一年’》，《华盛顿邮报》，12 月 29 日。

1. Max Roser, 2016, ‘Stop saying that 2016 was the “worst year”’, The Washington Post, 29 December.

2.儿童死亡率数据来自 ourworldindata.org/child-mortality（20 世纪 70 年代初）和 childmortality.org（2021 年，即撰写本文时可获得的最近一年的数据）。服务业就业数据来自世界银行（指标 SL.SRV.EMPL.ZS）。

2. Child mortality figures from ourworldindata.org/child-mortality (for early 1970s) and childmortality.org (for 2021, the most recent year available at the time of writing). Services employment figures from World Bank (indicator SL.SRV.EMPL.ZS).

3.史蒂芬·平克，2018年，《当下的启蒙：理性、科学、人文主义和进步的案例》，纽约维京出版社。

3. Steven Pinker, 2018, Enlightenment Now: The Case for Reason, Science, Humanism, and Progress, Viking, New York.

4.有关天花造成的死亡人数，请参阅唐纳德·亨德森 (Donald Henderson)，2009 年，《天花：一种疾病的消亡》，普罗米修斯图书，纽约州阿默斯特，第 12 页。

4. On the death toll from smallpox, see Donald Henderson, 2009, Smallpox: The Death of a Disease, Prometheus Books, Amherst, New York, p. 12.

5. Betsey Stevenson 和 Justin Wolfers，2008 年，《经济增长与幸福：重新评估伊斯特林悖论》，《布鲁金斯经济活动论文集》，2008 年春季，第 1-87 页；Angus Deaton，2008 年，《世界各地的收入、健康和幸福：盖洛普世界民意调查的证据》，《经济展望杂志》 22(2)，第 53-72 页。

5. Betsey Stevenson and Justin Wolfers. 2008, ‘Economic growth and happiness: Reassessing the Easterlin paradox’, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Spring 2008, pp. 1–87; Angus Deaton, 2008, ‘Income, health, and well-being around the world: Evidence from the Gallup World Poll’, Journal of Economic Perspectives 22(2), pp. 53–72.

6 . 史蒂文森和沃尔弗斯，2008。

6. Stevenson and Wolfers, 2008.

7.本段中的每日收入估算来自 Bolt 和 Luiten van Zanden，2020 年。

7. The daily income estimates in this paragraph are from Bolt and Luiten van Zanden, 2020.

8. OECD/SWAC，2020 年，《2020 年非洲城市化动态：Africapolis，绘制新城市地理》，西非研究，OECD 出版社，巴黎。

8. OECD/SWAC, 2020, Africa’s Urbanisation Dynamics 2020: Africapolis, Mapping a New Urban Geography, West African Studies, OECD Publishing, Paris.

9.有关灾难性风险的更多信息，请参阅 Andrew Leigh，2021 年，《可能发生的最坏情况是什么？生存风险与极端政治》，麻省理工学院出版社，马萨诸塞州剑桥。

9. For more on catastrophic risk, see Andrew Leigh, 2021, What’s the Worst That Could Happen? Existential Risk and Extreme Politics, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.

10. Gernot Wagner 和 Martin L. Weitzman，2016，《气候冲击：全球变暖带来的经济后果》，普林斯顿大学出版社，新泽西州普林斯顿。

10. Gernot Wagner and Martin L. Weitzman, 2016, Climate Shock: The Economic Consequences of a Hotter Planet, Princeton University Press, Princeton NJ.

11. Bob Pishue，2023 年、2022 年 INRIX 全球流量记分卡，INRIX，华盛顿州柯克兰。

11. Bob Pishue, 2023, 2022 INRIX Global Traffic Scorecard, INRIX, Kirkland, WA.

12。皮舒，2023 年。

12. Pishue, 2023.

13. Zach Stein-Perlman、Benjamin Weinstein-Raun 和 Katja Grace，《2022 年人工智能进展专家调查》，AI Impacts，2022 年 8 月 3 日，https://aiimpacts.org/2022-expert-survey-on-progress-in-ai/。

13. Zach Stein-Perlman, Benjamin Weinstein-Raun and Katja Grace, ‘2022 expert survey on progress in AI’, AI Impacts, 3 August 2022, https://aiimpacts.org/2022-expert-survey-on-progress-in-ai/.

14.Coggan，2020年，第357页。

14. Coggan, 2020, p. 357.

15. Bruce Chapman 编，2006，政府风险管理：以收入为基础的贷款促进社会和经济进步，劳特利奇出版社，伦敦。

15. Bruce Chapman (ed.), 2006, Government Managing Risk: Income Contingent Loans for Social and Economic Progress, Routledge, London.

16. Robert Jensen，2007，“数字供给：信息（技术）、市场表现和南印度渔业部门的福利”，季刊经济学122(3): 879–924。

16. Robert Jensen, 2007, ‘The digital provide: Information (technology), market performance, and welfare in the South Indian fisheries sector’, Quarterly Journal of Economics 122(3): 879–924.

17.本段讨论借鉴了Johnson，2010，第230、236页。

17. The discussion in this paragraph draws on Johnson, 2010, pp. 230, 236.

18.Harford，2020年，第273页。

18. Harford, 2020, p. 273.

指数

Index

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粗体页码指的是图像。

Page numbers in bold refer to images.

1MDB挪用公款 163, 164

1MDB embezzlement 163, 164

意外保险

accident insurance 68

非洲 3, 8, 9, 17, 34, 36, 41, 63, 146, 185–6

Africa 3, 8, 9, 17, 34, 36, 41, 63, 146, 185–6

非裔美国人 96

African Americans 96

“大航海时代” 39

‘Age of Discovery’ 39

农业

agriculture

农业革命 8, 12–18, 45

agricultural revolution 8, 12–18, 45

中国集体化 118

Chinese collectivisation 118

18 世纪英国农业 46

English agriculture, 1700s 46

“创始作物” 15

‘founder crops’ 15

土地密集型农业 33

land-intensive agriculture 33

技术创新 143, 145

technological innovations 143, 145

空调 112

air conditioning 112

航空旅行

air travel

票价 116

fares 116

第一张磁条信用卡 117

first magnetic stripe credit card 117

航空母舰 98, 99

aircraft carriers 98, 99

阿克洛夫，乔治 117, 186

Akerlof, George 117, 186

亚历山大·萨迪96，96

Alexander, Sadie 96, 96

算法 176, 189, 193

algorithms 176, 189, 193

美国独立宣言（1776年）50

American Declaration of Independence (1776) 50

美洲 8、17、34、36、66；另见拉丁美洲；北美洲

Americas 8, 17, 34, 36, 66; see also Latin America; North America

英荷战争 41

Anglo-Dutch wars 41

人类世 156

Anthropocene 156

抗生素

antibiotics 144

反谷物法联盟 60

Anti-Corn Law League 60

反垄断执法 70–1

antitrust enforcement 70–1

阿根廷 87, 119, 132, 140

Argentina 87, 119, 132, 140

人工智能 148, 175, 186–7, 187 , 188, 189

artificial intelligence 148, 175, 186–7, 187, 188, 189

亚洲 8–9、41、63、66、128、139–40、141；另见欧亚大陆；以及各个国家的名称

Asia 8–9, 41, 63, 66, 128, 139–40, 141; see also Eurasia; and names of individual countries

装配线 8, 78 , 78–9

assembly lines 8, 78, 78–9

吸引力与收入的关系 131

attractiveness, relationship to income 131

澳大利亚

Australia

'婴儿奖金' 5

‘baby bonus’ 5

中央银行 134, 173

central bank 134, 173

金矿发现 66, 81

gold discoveries 66, 81

移民 91

immigration 91

劳工运动 68, 107

labour movement 68, 107

国民收入

national income 95

流放地 55, 64, 66

penal colony 55, 64, 66

定居者 39, 66, 68

settlers 39, 66, 68

和美国科技泡沫 153

and US technology bubble 153

奥匈帝国 81–2

Austro-Hungarian Empire 81–2

独裁统治 95

autocracies 95

沃尔特·白芝浩 60

Bagehot, Walter 60

银行投资

bank investing 128

英格兰银行 51, 51 , 77, 105, 168

Bank of England 51, 51, 77, 105, 168

板桥水坝溃决（1975）118

Banqiao Dam failure (1975) 118

巴林银行倒闭 140–1

Barings bank collapse 140–1

弗雷德里克·巴斯夏 57–8

Bastiat, Frédéric 57–8

BATX 174, 175

拜耳止咳药 80, 80

Bayer’s cough medicine 80, 80

贝克尔，加里 112–13

Becker, Gary 112–13

“犯罪与惩罚：一种经济学方法”112

‘Crime and punishment: an economic approach’ 112

蚊帐、抗疟疾药物 145

bed nets, anti-malarial 145

行为经济学 9, 153–54, 170, 193

behavioural economics 9, 153–54, 170, 193

比利时 90

Belgium 90

孟加拉饥荒（1943年）120–21，121

Bengal Famine (1943) 120–21, 121

边沁，杰里米 52

Bentham, Jeremy 52

贝塞麦炼钢法 72

Bessemer process 72

贝弗里奇报告 104

Beveridge Report 104

大数据 176–7, 179–80, 193

big data 176–7, 179–80, 193

俾斯麦，奥托·冯·68

Bismarck, Otto von 68

黑死病 32–33

Black Death 32–33

布卢姆斯伯里派 89

Bloomsbury Group 89

薄伽丘、乔瓦尼、《十日谈》 32

Boccaccio, Giovanni, The Decameron 32

博格尔，杰克 166–67

Bogle, Jack 166–67

邦萨克，詹姆斯 80

Bonsack, James 80

繁荣与萧条周期 190

boom-and-bust cycle 190

博克，罗伯特 127–28

Bork, Robert 127–28

博洛格，诺曼 144

Borlaug, Norman 144

鲍利，亚瑟 94–5

Bowley, Arthur 94–5

巴西 36, 87, 92, 103, 140, 180

Brazil 36, 87, 92, 103, 140, 180

布雷顿森林协定（1944年）52、100-01、138-9

Bretton Woods Agreement (1944) 52, 100–01, 138–9

英国脱欧169–70

Brexit 169–70

英国参见United Kingdom

Britain see United Kingdom

英国东印度公司 40–1, 41 , 63–4, 93

British East India Company 40–1, 41, 63–4, 93

布鲁日 30

Bruges 30

沃伦·巴菲特 167

Buffett, Warren 167

伯恩斯，亚瑟 134

Burns, Arthur 134

创业公司 138

business start-ups 138

柬埔寨 123

Cambodia 123

加拿大 39, 81, 83, 90, 91, 134, 153, 167

Canada 39, 81, 83, 90, 91, 134, 153, 167

能力，人类 121, 122

capabilities, human 121, 122

资本流动，国际 91–92, 101

capital flows, international 91–92, 101

资本投资回报率 109–10

capital investment rate of return 109–10

资本市场

capital markets 48

资本主义 3, 49, 54, 122, 190–1

capitalism 3, 49, 54, 122, 190–1

卡莱尔，托马斯 4

Carlyle, Thomas 4

卡内基，安德鲁 71

Carnegie, Andrew 71

菲德尔·卡斯特罗 119

Castro, Fidel 119

因果关系，与相关性分离 113, 115–16

causation, separating from correlation 113, 115–16

人口普查 95

census 95

中央银行 23、77、133、134-7、168-9、172-3；另请参阅美联储（美国、美联储）

central banks 23, 77, 133, 134–7, 168–9, 172–3; see also Federal Reserve (US, The Fed)

切蒂，拉吉 177，179

Chetty, Raj 177, 179

“芝加哥学派”经济学家 127–8, 173–4

‘Chicago School’ economists 127–8, 173–4

儿童健康 32, 69, 70, 123, 143, 145, 182-3

child health 32, 69, 70, 123, 143, 145, 182–3

中国

China

中国古代发明 22

Ancient Chinese inventions 22

资本主义经济

capitalist economy 190

信用卡债务 117

credit card debt 117

文化大革命 118–19

Cultural Revolution 118–19

经济增长 3,126

economic growth 3, 126

大运河 26–7

Grand Canal 26–7

《大跃进》118，124-5

‘Great Leap Forward’ 118, 124–5

温室气体排放

greenhouse emissions 157

鸦片进口和销售 41, 60–1

opium imports and sales 41, 60–1

纸币 24

paper money 24

从集体企业转向私营企业 125–6, 137

shift from collectives to private business 125–6, 137

消灭麻雀运动 118

sparrow elimination campaign 118

专业化示例 6

specialisation examples 6

贸易 25, 26–7, 30, 58, 61, 126, 139, 169, 183

trade 25, 26–7, 30, 58, 61, 126, 139, 169, 183

公民的“可信度” 176

‘trustworthiness’ of citizens 176

中国共产党 8, 117–18, 124–5, 141

Chinese Communist Party 8, 117–18, 124–5, 141

卷烟机 80

cigarette-rolling machine 80

收入循环流动

circular flow of income 102

城市 13, 18, 19, 27, 30, 46, 65, 69, 112

cities 13, 18, 19, 27, 30, 46, 65, 69, 112

网格城市 72–3

gridded cities 72–3

克拉克，科林 95

Clark, Colin 95

克拉克，格雷戈里 28–9

Clark, Gregory 28–9

气候变化 9, 47, 155–6, 157, 170, 187–8, 193

climate change 9, 47, 155–6, 157, 170, 187–8, 193

后代生命的价值 47, 156–7

value of lives of future generations 47, 156–7

钟表

clocks and watches 54

煤电 47–8

coal power 47–8

科斯，罗纳德 155，175

Coase, Ronald 155, 175

可口可乐中的可卡因 80

cocaine in Coca-Cola 80

集体化 124–5

collectivisation 124–5

大学27

colleganza 27

殖民主义 3, 39–41, 183, 193

colonialism 3, 39–41, 183, 193

哥伦布，克里斯托弗 35

Columbus, Christopher 35

指令性经济

command economy 49

共产主义 122, 125, 191；另见中国共产党

communism 122, 125, 191; see also Chinese Communist Party

比较优势 25, 59, 103, 119, 131, 142, 183

comparative advantage 25, 59, 103, 119, 131, 142, 183

竞争 9, 21, 93–94, 113, 127, 128, 129, 173–4

competition 9, 21, 93–94, 113, 127, 128, 129, 173–4

计算能力 48, 168, 175–6, 179

computing power 48, 168, 175–6, 179

概念主义者 67

conceptualists 67

消费者支出 57–8, 85–6, 96, 135, 171, 172, 173；另见政府支出

consumer spending 57–8, 85–6, 96, 135, 171, 172, 173; see also government spending

消费者剩余 157, 158

consumer surplus 157, 158

消费者福利标准 127–8, 174

consumer welfare standard 127–8, 174

消费者和消费文化 21, 31, 53–4, 74–5, 80, 129–30, 173, 174, 180, 192, 193

consumers and consumer culture 21, 31, 53–4, 74–5, 80, 129–30, 173, 174, 180, 192, 193

消费平滑 14

consumption smoothing 14

集装箱和集装箱船 7, 114, 114

containers and container ships 7, 114, 114

避孕药 111

contraceptive pill 111

谷物法 58–9, 60, 137, 170

Corn Laws 58–9, 60, 137, 170

公司 63–4

corporations 63–4

相关性，与因果关系分离 113, 115–16

correlation, separating from causation 113, 115–16

腐败 163–65, 170, 178

corruption 163–65, 170, 178

成本

costs

固定成本

fixed costs 75

劳工 20, 62, 75

labour 20, 62, 75

变动成本

variable costs 75

另请参阅机会成本

关于作者

About the Author

安德鲁·利 (ANDREW LEIGH)拥有哈佛大学博士学位，曾任澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授。自 2010 年以来，他一直担任澳大利亚众议院议员。安德鲁是一名超级马拉松和铁人三项全能运动员。他的研究成果发表在《美国经济评论》、《公共经济学杂志》和《经济学杂志》上。

ANDREW LEIGH received his PhD from Harvard University and was a professor of economics at the Australian National University. Since 2010, he has served in the Australian House of Representatives. Andrew is a keen ultramarathoner and Ironman triathlete. His research has appeared in the American Economic Review, the Journal of Public Economics, and the Economic Journal.

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关于 Mariner Books

About Mariner Books

Mariner Books 的历史可以追溯到 1832 年，当时 William Ticknor 在波士顿与他人共同创办了 Old Corner Bookstore，之后他经营着传奇公司 Ticknor and Fields，该公司出版过拉尔夫·沃尔多·爱默生、哈里特·比彻·斯托、纳撒尼尔·霍桑和亨利·戴维·梭罗的作品。Ticknor 去世后，Henry Oscar Houghton 收购了 Ticknor and Fields，并于 1880 年成立了霍顿·米夫林，后来与著名的 Harcourt Publishing 合并，成立了霍顿·米夫林·哈考特。HarperCollins 于 2021 年收购了 HMH 的商业出版业务，并以 Mariner Books 的名义重建了其传奇书单和编辑团队。

Mariner Books traces its beginnings to 1832 when William Ticknor cofounded the Old Corner Bookstore in Boston, from which he would run the legendary firm Ticknor and Fields, publisher of Ralph Waldo Emerson, Harriet Beecher Stowe, Nathaniel Hawthorne, and Henry David Thoreau. Following Ticknor’s death, Henry Oscar Houghton acquired Ticknor and Fields and, in 1880, formed Houghton Mifflin, which later merged with venerable Harcourt Publishing to form Houghton Mifflin Harcourt. HarperCollins purchased HMH’s trade publishing business in 2021 and reestablished their storied lists and editorial team under the name Mariner Books.

水手图书融合了霍顿·米夫林、哈考特·布雷斯、蒂克诺和菲尔兹出版社的遗产，延续了美国图书销售的伟大传统之一。我们的出版公司推出了一系列无与伦比的经久不衰的经典作品，包括霍桑的《红字》、梭罗的《瓦尔登湖》、薇拉·凯瑟的《啊，拓荒者！》 、弗吉尼亚·伍尔夫的《到灯塔去》、 WEB 杜波依斯的《黑色重建》、JRR 托尔金的《指环王》、卡森·麦卡勒斯的《心是孤独的猎手》、安·佩特里的《狭窄》、乔治·奥威尔的《动物农场》和《一九八四》、雷切尔·卡森的《寂静的春天》、玛格丽特·沃克的《禧年》、伊塔洛·卡尔维诺的《看不见的城市》、爱丽丝·沃克的《紫色》、玛格丽特·阿特伍德的《使女的故事》、蒂姆·奥布莱恩的《他们携带的东西》、菲利普·罗斯的《反美阴谋》、裘芭·拉希莉的《疾病解释者》等等。时至今日，水手图书依然自豪地致力于近两个世纪前在老角书店创立的精品出版工艺。

Uniting the legacies of Houghton Mifflin, Harcourt Brace, and Ticknor and Fields, Mariner Books continues one of the great traditions in American bookselling. Our imprints have introduced an incomparable roster of enduring classics, including Hawthorne’s The Scarlet Letter, Thoreau’s Walden, Willa Cather’s O, Pioneers!, Virginia Woolf’s To the Lighthouse, W.E.B. Du Bois’s Black Reconstruction, J.R.R. Tolkien’s The Lord of the Rings, Carson McCullers’s The Heart Is a Lonely Hunter, Ann Petry’s The Narrows, George Orwell’s Animal Farm and Nineteen Eighty-Four, Rachel Carson’s Silent Spring, Margaret Walker’s Jubilee, Italo Calvino’s Invisible Cities, Alice Walker’s The Color Purple, Margaret Atwood’s The Handmaid’s Tale, Tim O’Brien’s The Things They Carried, Philip Roth’s The Plot Against America, Jhumpa Lahiri’s Interpreter of Maladies, and many others. Today Mariner Books remains proudly committed to the craft of fine publishing established nearly two centuries ago at the Old Corner Bookstore.

版权

Copyright

第 7 章中的歌词经 Russ Roberts 和 John Papola 许可使用。

Lyrics in Chapter 7 are used with permission from Russ Roberts and John Papola.

HOW ECONOMICS EXPLAINS THE WORLD. Copyright © 2024 by Andrew Leigh. All rights reserved under International and Pan-American Copyright Conventions. By payment of the required fees, you have been granted the nonexclusive, nontransferable right to access and read the text of this e-book on-screen. No part of this text may be reproduced, transmitted, downloaded, decompiled, reverse-engineered, or stored in or introduced into any information storage and retrieval system, in any form or by any means, whether electronic or mechanical, now known or hereafter invented, without the express written permission of HarperCollins e-books.

最初于 2024 年由 Black Inc.（Schwartz Books Pty Ltd. 旗下子公司）以《澳大利亚最简经济学史》为题出版。经 Black Inc. 授权出版。

Originally published as The Shortest History of Economics in Australia in 2024 by Black Inc., an imprint of Schwartz Books Pty Ltd. Published by arrangement with Black Inc.

第一水手图书出版版本 2024 年

FIRST MARINER BOOKS EDITION PUBLISHED 2024

封面设计：马克·罗宾逊

Cover design by Mark Robinson

数字版 2024 年 9 月 ISBN：978-0-06-338380-7

Digital Edition SEPTEMBER 2024 ISBN: 978-0-06-338380-7

版本 08062024

Version 08062024

印刷版 ISBN：978-0-06-338378-4

Print ISBN: 978-0-06-338378-4

关于出版商

About the Publisher

澳大利亚

Australia

哈珀柯林斯出版公司澳大利亚有限公司

HarperCollins Publishers Australia Pty. Ltd.

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Level 13, 201 Elizabeth Street

澳大利亚新南威尔士州悉尼 2000

Sydney, NSW 2000, Australia

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加拿大

Canada

哈珀柯林斯出版有限公司

HarperCollins Publishers Ltd

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Bay Adelaide Centre, East Tower

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22 Adelaide Street West, 41st Floor

安大略省多伦多，M5H 4E3

Toronto, Ontario, M5H 4E3

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印度

India

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HarperCollins India

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A 75, Sector 57

诺伊达

Noida

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Uttar Pradesh 201 301

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新西兰

New Zealand

哈珀柯林斯出版公司新西兰

HarperCollins Publishers New Zealand

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Unit D1, 63 Apollo Drive

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Rosedale 0632

新西兰奥克兰

Auckland, New Zealand

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英国

United Kingdom

哈珀柯林斯出版有限公司

HarperCollins Publishers Ltd.

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1 London Bridge Street

英国伦敦 SE1 9GF

London SE1 9GF, UK

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美国

United States

哈珀柯林斯出版公司

HarperCollins Publishers Inc.

百老汇 195 号

195 Broadway

纽约，NY 10007

New York, NY 10007

内容

Contents

内容

Contents